I agree that this is most likely what is going on
From today’s Veneconomia, the best explanation for the recent events in Venezuela
Playing at Chaos
The government is sending out contradictory signals, even to the detriment of its own best interests. After having twisted public opinion around its little finger and manipulated the facts with rare skill, in the last few days, the government side has been, quite openly, making what appear to be a series of errors, but which could well be intentional with the idea of putting the opposition in disarray. Some think that it is a plan to avoid the recall referendum.
The first sign was the petition to revoke the mandate of seven governors, 38 deputies, and the Mayor of Greater Caracas, in what seemed to be a last-minute strategy that lacked coordination, which was apparent from the errors made in filing the petition. Besides, there is no justification for a referendum to revoke the mandate of the governors when the regional elections are coming up in June next year, which means that the present incumbents will have to resign from office on April 1.
The second signal was the government side’s disproportionate reaction to the article published by US News & World Report claiming that there are links between the Chávez administration and terrorism. Highly placed figures within the Venezuelan government suggested that this was part of a plan to destabilize the regime.
The third signal came with the –allegedly illegal- confiscation of Globovisión’s equipment last Friday and the reaction of the President, who ordered Diosdado Cabello to open criminal and legal proceedings against the station for “hindering action by the State, inciting protest without authorization, and exacerbating hate”.
All this is happening right in the middle of a difficult electoral climate for the government, which has been exacerbated recently by violent incidents, such as those experienced in Anzoátegui and Falcón with the eviction of the former PDVSA workers from the oil fields and the explosives that were set off in the barracks of the Presidential Guard of Honor at Miraflores, in front of Conatel, at La Carlota Airport, and at Fuerte Tiuna.
In addition to this, the National Guard will be out on the streets of Caracas this month to perform security duties, according to Chávez, as part of what he called an urban security plan, and the Army –that is the Military Police- will join the plan in November, but whether to protect the population or to lay siege to Caracas is not clear.
One hypothesis is that the government is attempting to sow fear and chaos in order to create a situation that would justify declaring a state of emergency and so prevent the holding of the Reafirmazo and, by extension, the referendum for revoking the President’s mandate