Predictions by pollsters A,B,C and D (top) for the Sunday election. In the lower half, the same predictions adjusted for the undecided in three scenarios. Red indicates which candidate wins in each scenario.
Predicting elections in Venezuela has always been tough. I am no pollster, nor do I have the feel for what the people of Tucupita are thinking, even if when I was a kid when asked where I was born, I thought it was cool to say I was born in that city in Delta Amacuro.
In the last election, most reliable pollsters were saying Rosales was doing badly, but there was one prediction that said the opposite, wholly confusing me. I have since erased him form my studies as I did not dare predict the outcome.
And then came this election, where pollsters had either a close race, or a large Chavez advantage but an even larger number of undecided. Even worse, the number of undecided did not decrease in time, leading to the question: How can it be that in such a divided and polarized country, there can be such a large number of undecided voters?.
In the table above, I show the four pollsters I consider to be serious and their last predictions. Some don’t have decimals because I have been dictated numbers over the phone or been given the numbers in pieces of paper. Since I don’t pay for any of them, I don’t give the names associated to each, labelled A,B, C and D.
What I have done is to say that since I don’t believe that the large “undecided” all really exist, these people must be hiding something. Therefore, there has to be a large bias among them towards Capriles, after all, it is the Government that instills fear in them. Thus, I consider three scenarios in which for all of the polls, the undecided divide themselves 60% for Capriles, 70% for Capriles and 80% for Capriles. To me, the middle scenario 70% for Capriles/30% for Chávez is likely to be the more realistic one.
Given that, the four pollsters are split evenly. However, I can never forget the advice given to me by pollster Segundo Cazalis long ago, pay attention to the trends more than the numbers. And the trend has been Capriles’ friend for the last two months. Even in the most Chavista polls, Capriles has been rising.
With this information, and the fact that most of those polls above were made before Sept. 20th. , those two additional weeks and the campaign closing rallies should tip Capriles over the top and he should win, in my opinion, by 1% to 2%, barely 140,000 to 200,000 votes. Too close for comfort.
I could throw in abstention, which I think will be near 30% and increase the lead by an additional 1%, but I will leave it at this: A tight Capriles win with 140,000 to 300,000 votes advantage.
It is a small number. It may keep us up until the wee hours of the night Sunday evening, since the CNE clearly said it will not call the election until the trend was “irreversible”. (At the lower end foreign votes will be needed to call the winner) If larger, we could go to bed earlier, but this is as far as I can predict given the knowledge that I have.
Hope I am right!
The Devil's Excrement 
December 12, 2013 at 3:39 am
This blog was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally
I have found something which helped me. Kudos!
October 8, 2012 at 2:36 am
[…] election is in two days, October 7. Venezuelan blogger Miguel Octavio predicts a Capriles […]
October 6, 2012 at 9:27 am
You’re a serious analyst, this article was unnecessary.
YUra
October 5, 2012 at 6:43 pm
The 10 point gap in the Datanalisis poll is too big to be believes and the 15% undecided is nothing short of ridiculous. Respondents surely were afraid to answer with honesty. In Venezuela, if their polling was not done face to face and with proper identification then their poll in not reliable.
October 5, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Barclays thinks CAPRILES HAS THE EDGE https://www.dropbox.com/s/8kumli7n9uixrp3/barclays_-_venezuela_capriles_has_the_edge.pdf
October 5, 2012 at 9:40 pm
I’m impressed with the clarity, and of course, the positive message (fuller than that reported in the WSJ today).
October 5, 2012 at 12:57 pm
True but that idea did not work out for rudy either. First things first. Lets see what Monday morning brings.
October 5, 2012 at 12:50 pm
If Capriles wins, and Chavez can’t manipulate the victory, he accepts it. AND then, between the vote and the handover, something “happens” and Chavez “has” to hold on to power. N.Y.City mayor Rudy Giuliani proposed something very similar immediately following the 9/11 attacks.
This is simply the easiest way…
October 5, 2012 at 12:26 pm
On the bright side it seems we are in a position that Capriles actually may win legitimately and that is the real news. If Hugo decides to cheat or retain power through some other means like declaring a national emergency I believe it would be short lived fiasco like the remainder of his natural life.
October 5, 2012 at 12:02 pm
The undecided that vote will vote Capriles. A large portion of the ones polled that said chavez, will vote Capriles. And a large portion of the forced attendance crowd in Caracas yesterday will vote Capriles, their minds made up months ago but had no choice but to attend.
The unknown for me will be the CNE and the cuban influence. The CNE has direction to swing the vote. I believe they did it with Rosales who immediately conceded the results and slipped out of the country, probably threatened in some way. And they did it again in the first referendum that would have gone unchallenged if not for Baduel. How did that work out for him?
Anything electronic can be manipulated, and I am not sure how poll witnesses can police that. The actual vote will go hugely in favor of Capriles. The official vote count is sure to disappoint. Are you ready to defend the vote?
October 5, 2012 at 12:11 pm
The CNE knows that they can be held liable for fraud by manipulating votes. Plus they know that Capriles will likely be president when all is said and done. Moreover, the vote count will be known by Capriles observers in each mesa. I suspect the CNE may take days to make the final official announcement, but the vote counts will be public beforehand.
October 5, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Who controls the CNE? Their directors have more economic incentive than scruples.
I am not sure how the Capriles observers will know the actual vote count as the individual votes are secret. We have already seen the CNE allowed manipulation of the Capriles photo attached to the wrong card. Possibly more “glitches” in the system…famous example of Anzoategui governor voting multilple times on camera, due to a “glitch in the system”. That was not just an isolated incident. The guardia national burning the boxes of paper ballots the next day, eliminating any form or recount.
I hope you are right, and I am wrong. I am just nervously waiting for Sunday.
October 5, 2012 at 12:12 pm
This is what I’ve been saying all along and how I think it will play out. I laid it out in a previous comment.
1. Chavez is declared winner by CNE
2. Evidence is discovered that fraud was committed.
3. Some people will protest for a couple of days
4. By the next week, everything is business as usual.
Sad, but that’s how it’s played out in the last few elections and is the most likely result on Sunday.
I pray I’m wrong.
October 5, 2012 at 11:38 am
Barklays goes to the dark side
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-05/chavez-likely-to-lose-supporting-bond-position-barclays-says
October 5, 2012 at 11:36 am
Devil……..
Today in Bloomberg news, they are talking about a new Consultores21 poll which shows that Capriles has increased his lead to almost 5% (51.8 vs 47.2).
The poll of 1,546 people taken between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
It would be nice if you can adjust your crystall ball with this new data.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/chavez-likely-to-lose-supporting-bond-position-barclays-says.html
October 5, 2012 at 12:41 pm
They have no undecided, which amounts to the same in the end.
October 5, 2012 at 10:17 am
Sadly I won’t be able to vote. I got screwed with the whole registering process at the consulate. Protest after protest did nothing to solve it. Oh well…
October 6, 2012 at 5:07 am
If it is feasible for you, you should go to the consulate anyways and ask to see the voting notebook (Cuaderno) to see if you are on the list.
Even if you do not appear on the list outside it is possible that you do appear on the notebook.
The saying is “CUADERNO MATA TODO”. There have been cases where a person does not appear on the list outside the center, but does appear in the notebook. That is the key, the notebook.
Even if this does not apply to you, spread the word
CUADERNO MATA TODO
October 5, 2012 at 10:15 am
I just checked Fausta’s Blog from the pingback link above, and here’s a link to the Tupamaros’ interview: http://www.abc.es/20121004/internacional/abci-plomo-chavez-capriles-201210041155.html. Unbelievable.
October 5, 2012 at 10:00 am
The opposition has way more to lose than Chavismo in this elections. That is why we are going to win, we want it more, we are offering peace, we are offering more. Chavismo is offering more of the same, division, confrontation, mismanagement, etc.
I do not understand when people say that Chavez has too much to lose. We would lose way more!
October 5, 2012 at 9:23 am
[…] election is in two days, October 7. Venezuelan blogger Miguel Octavio predicts a Capriles […]
October 5, 2012 at 7:24 am
With a tide result 1% or less favorable to Capriles, the CNE will declare Chavez’s victory and Capriles might accept the defeat “por ahora”. Claims of fraud are unpopular in the international community. There are not international observers in Venezuela for this election and the MUD didn’t make a work for international support. Only Santos received Capriles for a short conversation in Bogota! I know, Chavismo bought the whole continent, but I think this was one of the few mistakes of the campaign. The MUD will do nothing with protests and seeking justice in national institutions that are controlled by the Chavismo. Capriles is young and still has a lot to win, and the opposition a lot to win with Capriles. This guy is not a Rosales. Chavez is sick and we will probably see the denouement of his cancer in the coming months. I don’t see any scenario with Chavez accepting defeat in a tide result…I don’t really see it.
October 5, 2012 at 7:54 am
Paramo,
Whoever gets the most votes wins. Period. Even the CNE cannot change it. MUD will know the count because of its observers. If the CNE does not announce the vote count, then MUD can announce it.
October 5, 2012 at 8:34 am
The whole point is that with tight results anything is possible:
1.- That Capriles wins and it is accepted by all
2.- That Capriles wins and it is not accepted by chavistas
3.- That Chávez wins and it is accepted by all
4.- That Chávez wins and it is not accepted by the opposition
You are mostly assuming point 2, but any of the other three are possible. You may even say point 4 is not possible…well in 2006, Rosales accepted his defeat and people were so mad at him for doing so, because they were made believe that Rosales was winning in the last days. As a result of that, he was left to his sort and the opposition missed the opportunity to gain momentum.
We lost precious time. If the opposition had stick together and re-organized then, maybe we would be in a much better situation today (no enmienda and a majority of Congress seats).
In my view, and you may crucify me for saying that, what is really important in this election is not so much the result, but how everyone will behave afterwords.
The most important election for Venezuela is 2015, Congress. Because it is congress the one that has the power to “dismantle” the chavista power: the judges of the TSJ, the fiscal, the controller, etc.
So, I think that winning or losing, we have to be very grateful to Capriles for what he has so far accomplished, be behind him, stick to the unity and focus on winning a large majority for the National assembly elections.
October 5, 2012 at 9:02 am
Huh? What power does congress have? We’ve seen over and over how Chavez has gone over the heads of anybody that opposes his ideas. He’ll just create some presidential order or law, even if it’s unconstitutional to do so, and do what he pleases. Congress makes no difference in Chavismo. You sure seem to have a very high view of Chavez, as if he’s ever been one to respect the law, constitution or institutions in Venezuela.
October 5, 2012 at 10:19 am
Yes, guest. You are right. Remember how Chavez asked AN for permission each time to visit Cuba for treatment? And everytime AN answered with a unanimous “””Yes””” Si, mi Commandante!
But, when Chavez decided to spend a billion dollars he did not bother asking AN…
The majority of AN is Chavez’s choirboys-and they have humiliated
themselves..
October 5, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Congress is responsible for the election of TSJ judges, the CNE nomination, the nomination of the Fiscal, the nomination of the Ombusdman and the Controller, among other things.
True, Chávez can do many things, but that is because he was first given a 100% chavista congress that nominated all these people and was able to change the law so that the next congress election (2010) gave him an artificial majority.
Congress is key. Even with Capriles as a President, as long as the opposition do not recuperate its congress majority, all the other powers will be in chavista hands.
October 5, 2012 at 10:51 am
The most important election for Venezuela is 2015, Congress.
Here Chavismo has the advantage, Gerrrymandered in. Which is how 48% of the 2010 legislative vote translated into ~67% of the legislative seats. There were cases where some oppo districts had ~300,000 registered voters, while by contrast some Chavista districts had ~180,000 registered voters.
October 5, 2012 at 11:08 am
2015 in Venezuela is very far into the future. If Capriles wins, Chavismo will not have the money and his victory may unravel Chavismo, more so if Chavez continues deteriorating.
October 5, 2012 at 1:02 pm
La pelea es peleando. Now that we know how the rules have been changed, if we plan with time and focus on unity, we’ll get our majority.
October 5, 2012 at 5:37 am
It would be hard to understate the real importance of this election, not just for Venezuela, but for the entire region. The results from Sunday (if Chavez is defeated) will reverberate throughout Latin America and may even have an impact on the U.S. elections in a month. This is a seminal moment in history. Chavez’s defeat (and the resulting loss of Venezuelan subsidies), will spell the end for several dictators, and wannabe dictators in the region, as well as a final end to the FARC. The restoration of institutional and constitutional democracy in Venezuela will set the stage for other Latin American countries to do the same. This, in turn, can result in an economic surge in the region as Latin America starts to realize its true economic and industrial potential. To be clear, I am not suggesting that Venezuela will be the center of this. Colombia will drive this. But Venezuela, under Chavez has blocked Colombia from realizing its economic potential. After Chavez, that roadblock will go away, and Colombia and Venezuela can cooperate in becoming the dual economic power houses of South America that they could be in the next twenty years. Too optimistic? Perhaps. But the potential and the opportunity is there.
For this election, I am going with the optimists. I won’t go so far as to predict a specific percentage, but I am expecting a definitive victory for Capriles (54% +/- 2%). I do think the polls are all wrong this time. The undecides are going to fall on the Capriles side, or stay home. And, there are going to be some defections from the Chavez camp, regardless of what they told the pollsters. The Chavista plans for getting out the vote are draconian, and are going to piss people off. Some of them are going to vent their displeasure at being awakened at 3:00am to go vote by voting for the other guy. Some of them are going to resent the pressure being put on them and vote for the other guy. And some of them have secretly decided “Ya basta.” and are going to vote for Capriles, because they have been having doubts for a couple of years now in private. The polls simply cannot detect or reflect this, because of the people’s lack of confidence in telling a pollster what they really think.
And, even if the Opposition knew this, they would not tell anyone. Right now, they WANT the public to think it’s close. I don’t see any problem saying this here in this forum and only a couple of days away from the election. If people thought it was a done deal, they might decide to go to the beach instead. Better let everyone think it is close thing. Better to let the Chavistas think that they are ahead. But, my prediction is that we are all going to be very surprised and elated at the results.
But that is not going to stop me from e-mailing and calling everyone I know in Venezuela to make sure they vote and make sure that everyone THEY know does the same.
Hay un camino!
October 5, 2012 at 6:51 am
Right on Roy!
Couldn’t agree more.
October 5, 2012 at 8:09 am
Kepler approves of this message 🙂
October 5, 2012 at 5:07 am
If either one wins by less than a million votes, the shit’s gonna hitmthe fa.
October 5, 2012 at 2:54 am
I meant Capriles in the first sentence. I did I did !
October 5, 2012 at 2:51 am
The assumption based on fact indicates the undecided will more than likely vote for Chavez. The detail of whether it is 60%, 70%, or 80% is interesting, positive and correct from available information.
That being the assumption it must be assumed and demonstrated in your final figures that a fraction of those who say they will vote for Chaves and vote otherwise is important. From an arithmetical viewpoint the ‘dishonesty factor’ more than likely will have a greater influence than the three scenarios you consider.
If there is the possibility that people have been dishonest in the polls, and there seems to be a strong possibility that is the case, your poll is more of a foundation rather than an indicator.
October 5, 2012 at 3:03 am
In the past couple elections ‘undecided’ voters went to the opposition at about 4:1 or so I read. That would indicate 80% is the realistic scenario. It doesn’t change the fact that the pollsters still break to two each, but the margains clearly favor Caprilles.
October 5, 2012 at 3:38 am
Indeed. However I wasn’t referring to the known undecided. As far as they are concerned I believe 80% of those undecided will go to Capriles.
The bigger factor comes from the decided group. Namely those who say they will vote for Chaves and vote otherwise. Imagine 2% change from Chaves to Capriles when they get to the voting booth. Assuming they then vote for Capriles the difference for that change alone becomes 4%. That is a greater arithmetical outcome positive for Capriles than a determination alone of the percentage swing of the supposed undecided group.
It’s a win WIN situation you might say !
October 5, 2012 at 4:34 am
One Consultores 21 poll tested for that, and found about that difference – 2% Chavez voters were Caprilla voters in disguise. I also hope they’re correct, since this would be a game-changer. Just 1% would already be a huge blow.
Then again, it is also possible Chavista voter intimidiation will trump that. It could also backfire. Fear can be a potent tool, but eventually always backfires.
One thing is certain, October 8th will be an interesting, interesting day.
October 5, 2012 at 1:47 am
In a sense the very best result would be a small and fradulent victory for Chavez. It’s quite clear that Venezuela is in for a serious economic shock early next year. If Caprilles wins by a small margain, Chavistas will use it to paint him as the culprit, making Venezuela ungovernable and overthrow him one way or another (a recall referendum, I think).
On the other hand, if Chavez wins – especially if it’s by a small margain and fradulently – it will be Chavistas that will have to deal with the downturn. They won’t be able to, obviously, and it’s quite possible that the opposition will be able to pull off a recall referendum for Chavez, successfully this time.
October 5, 2012 at 2:52 am
Chavez wins and survives you’ll be living in a commune, is that the best result ?
October 5, 2012 at 2:59 am
Nope. Neither is Caprilles wins and gets overthrown by Chavistas owing to a massive economic upheval and the fact they’re armed, whereas the opposition mostly isn’t.
I hope Caprilles wins and survives his first two years. That may be just wishful thinking however.
October 4, 2012 at 11:41 pm
the celebration is going to be so MASSIVE, they are going to have to let us crown our prince charming for once and for all
October 5, 2012 at 12:15 am
I really really hope you’re right
October 4, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Syd, we win, the fight begins then.
October 4, 2012 at 11:33 pm
I don’t like the tight results. Not going to read them. Not now. I’m so enjoying the little bubble of hope and positive energy until Sunday night.
October 4, 2012 at 10:02 pm
A 300,000 vote Capriles win means a Chavez victory.
Miguel, coming from you, this really hurts.
No way in hell will Chavez and his minions in any way have any reason to cede power with this scenario.
I hope to God you’re totally wrong, and will be disgraced by your prediction.
And we will celebrate your disgrace by having a drink after a clear Capriles victory of at least 750,000.
October 4, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Sorry to hurt I like you Ira, but I have to say what my mind says, not my heart. I dont think it means a Chavez victory.
October 4, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Bruni, I honestly don’t believe that the CNE would admit Capriles won even if he officially had. This is how I see it going down.
1. CNE declares Chavez the winner
2. Evidence is discovered that would suggest fraud and a Capriles victory.
3. Some people will protest.
4. In a week it’s back to business as usual.
Yes, I’m that skeptical. :O(
October 4, 2012 at 10:21 pm
It would not be that easy. The opposition has the actas and they have to match with the results.
The problem in Venezuela is that each side believes only its own side and none believes in any institution.
So, from now, the chavistas are making a pre-emptive strike saying that the opposition will not accept the results and people like you are saying that the chavistas will not accept the results.
This is the perfect recipe for chaos and who does chaos benefit? The one who is in power that will have an excuse to declare a state of emergency.
So, I prefer to be called naive and wait before making any assumptions that can trigger unrest.
In the end, even if Capriles loses by small margin, he is a winner, for several reasons:
1.- He managed a brilliant campaign and accomplished a solid unity
2.- He becomes a unity figure to fight for the National assembly elections that are the ones that are truly important because they will provide real power to the opposition.
October 5, 2012 at 12:13 am
I agree with all 4 points. I’m sorry too I’m that skeptical
October 4, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Why do I think Capriles will reach 60 % ? In the pollsters numbers we only talk how the undicided / don’t know responses, but have you asked yourself how many of those that said Chávez in the polls are really meaning it, afraid if the pollster may say something different ?
So, to Miguel’s Capriles’ numbers I add 10 % more
October 4, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Javier, I hope you are right. With all the powers against him, Capriles needs a big victory.
October 4, 2012 at 11:23 pm
I will not go a far as 10% NotivenJavier … ( a pesar de que debe ser ). I’m around 57%. What no one can or will measure is the real hidden vote. It is not just what is buried in the ” not decided/not answered” it is the PayBack vote. The vote that goes against everything it has shown and said. The vote that goes 180deg at the time of pressing that button and says to itself ” thats for humiliating me everyday-enough ” …. that is a very real and hard to measure Phenomena… What comes after the win… He is ready for…he knows and I’m sure the procedures are very close to the breast. He has not reached this far by being naive gullible or unprepared … just read his project … that kind of info does not turn up over night.
October 5, 2012 at 4:17 am
57 is close to the 59/40 spread that this twitter comparison site indicates: http://www.chavezocapriles.com/
October 4, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Sorry Javier, those numbers are too optimistic, nobody says anything like that, 5% and jump for joy
October 5, 2012 at 4:20 am
So does this twitter comparison site: http://www.chavezocapriles.com/
Frankly part of me feels as if social media tells a story that people don’t realize yet. While not all people in Venezuela have internet, most have a cell phone. Most cell phones have access to twitter. Twitter is anonymous (SSL encrypted). I think Chavez’ high negatives is telling us a narrative we have yet to witness.
October 5, 2012 at 5:18 am
Come on! Do you really believe that a maid, perrocalentero, taxistas, cops, miltary are tweeting? They are too busy surviving.
October 5, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Wow JC … how did they compile that?? amazing … they can do that??
October 4, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Bruni, maybe it’s just me but I for the life of me can’t imagine Chavez or his gov’t accepting defeat after all these years. They all have too much to lose. The only difference maker I can come up with would be Chavez’s illness. If he believes that he doesn’t have much time left, maybe he would consider stepping down while he’s still perceived by his followers as a hero.
So many scenarios to play out!
October 4, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Guest, remember that Chavez controls:
1.- The Supreme Court
2.- the CNE
3.- the National assembly
4.- The fiscal General
5.- The Controller
6.- The Ombusdman
7.- The military
Moreover, if Capriles win, he will not be in the 60%, but rather in the early 50’s…meaning that roughly 50% of the venezuelan population supports Chávez.
Frankly, why would Chávez need to have a difficult exit from power, prepare a military coup or refuse the results, with the resulting international pressure if he can just step out and concoct something…?
Remember Carlos Andrés Pérez was outsted from goverment with much much much less.
October 4, 2012 at 9:04 pm
“Frankly, why would Chávez need to have a difficult exit from power, prepare a military coup or refuse the results, with the resulting international pressure if he can just step out and concoct something…?”
Pride? Ego?
October 4, 2012 at 9:17 pm
The guy has no pride. He cries when he is in trouble and he was the one that hid in 1992 in the Museo Militar.
I agree he is a very bad loser (remember la “victoria de mierr”) but he knows when to retreat to ruminate something else. That’s his style. he has been VERY consistent in that respect.
Of course, I may be completely off. If he indeed loses, he may accept his defeat gracefully and retire to Sabaneta or he may not accept the defeat and create internal problems to stay in power…but if I had to extrapolate from the past I would say he is likely to momentarily accept and plan for something else to come back.
Again, this is supposing that he really loses the election. He may win by a small margin, in which case the question is the opposite. Would you believe that he won by, say, 50.6%, or would you think the CNE cheated?
October 5, 2012 at 12:11 am
Bruni,
I see you’ve tried to identify a trend whenever Chavez has had his losses in the past. But I do think this election is an inflection point where the trend breaks down. Chavez may have accepted past losses, but always from the vantage point of being president, which is what has allowed him to come back when conditions give him an advantage. His “aura” comes precisely from being president, and [supposedly] makes him invincible. Should he loose the elections (should he accept a loss, that is) his “aura” will disappear faster than “lo que dura un peo en un chinchorro”. And, as you said, he’s a bad looser. Should Capriles win he will not concede. And he will not let it go that far. Capriles may win, by a small margin as Miguel has predicted. But that result will not be given officially. Should Capriles win Chavez’s plan may be to burn his ships and dictate to the CNE a result giving him as the winner. I do think he’s more than ready to take that risk, even more so since he’s sick. Anyone who thinks Chavez, should Capriles win, will loosen up, accept a defeat and “retire” to Sabaneta to live his last sick years is, my opinion, grossly mistaken.
October 5, 2012 at 8:22 am
I think megaescualidus makes a fair point – that Chavez has faced defeat, but it never before meant removing him from power. Every single example of his defeat meant he could not take a step forward, but it no case did it actually require a step back. (Unless you count jail, and in retrospect that clearly was not. They should have inhabilitated him and made it one, but I digress.)
Does this mean I predict he will lose it and do something crazy? No. But I think we can say it’s new territory for him, therefore we can’t be sure. And if he knows full well he is facing his own mortality, and this therefore is his last hurrah, the uncertainty factor grows considerably. The list of entities under his control will not serve to calm him down, but rather to embolden him, because they will back him in whatever he chooses to do. It’s his call, and his call alone.
October 5, 2012 at 8:33 am
In 2002 he initially went meekly. Nobody had to force him to go to Fuerte Tiuna, he wanted to go to Cuba. Later he reacted. We may see the same Sunday. He will concede only to start saying there was fraud later.
October 5, 2012 at 8:50 am
Yeah, I kind of forgot that one – was only thinking of elections. But I believe we can differentiate that one because, like in 1992, there were guns involved. Guns pointing at him. I assume that won’t be the case on Sunday/Monday. At least not initially.
October 4, 2012 at 11:35 pm
A true coup may be the best for Venezuela, but I dont see it.
October 5, 2012 at 3:17 am
What do you mean by a “true coup”?
October 5, 2012 at 6:53 am
`Just say: I dont recognize the result, I stay.
October 4, 2012 at 8:34 pm
If the difference is so small, I’m sorry but no matter how many witnesses we have they will flip those numbers around and declare a Chavez victory. I hope you are wrong, but that’s my gut feeling if the difference is like that.
October 4, 2012 at 11:34 pm
The opposition parties will have representatives in the totalization rooms, the truth can not be changed. They dont want to count, they cant allow any counting.
October 5, 2012 at 7:09 am
Good point.
October 4, 2012 at 8:33 pm
I’ll answer that, Guest. We’ll see if Miguel agrees with me or not.
In 1992, Chávez failed a coup d’état. He then ruminated for 6 years how he could make a come back with the vote and yet obtain the same powers he would have had witha coup d’état. He was amazingly successful.
In 2007, Chávez lost the Reforma, by barely 2% of the vote. He was mad, but he grudgingly accepted the defeat and then ruminated for a a few months to see how he could get in power forever. He was again successful.
So my point is that I believe he will accept the defeat, but watch out for what he ruminates to get in power once again, and be successful.
October 4, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Chavez is sick, if he were not it would make a huge difference, he will admit defeat and even withdraw, it is time to take care of himself. He did an amazing job, I think.
October 5, 2012 at 12:19 am
“He did an amazing job, I think.”
Sarcasm?
October 5, 2012 at 1:30 am
No. I think Miguel is being genuine. Chavez has clearly been unable to campaign. Capriles has been able to dominate for two months, hitting a town or two every single day. Rallying thousands. Chavez has been stuck doing cadenas and a rally here or there (some of the last ones being highly unsuccessful except for Caracas which somehow they pulled together).
October 4, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Miguel, two questions:
1. Even if Capriles wins officially, do you think the gov’t will admit it?
2. If the gov’t does declare Carpiles the winner, do you believe Chavez will actually concede and leave office?
October 4, 2012 at 11:32 pm
I think it is hard not to admit it, I believe the only way not to admit it is not to allow any counting at all.
October 4, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Voilà the importance of closing Miami consulate.
Tutto fa brodo…
October 4, 2012 at 7:56 pm
I hope you are right as well, I was there when he was sworn in and worked there 4 more years. A prime example of how Socialism never works. Keep up the good work