After spending a week in Caracas, it would appear as the word division is the common ground for both the opposition and Chavismo. While Chavismo shows unity so far, this unity is likely to dissolve once Chavez is finally enshrined and many try to claim to be the true spiritual son of Hugo. Diosdado and Nicolas claim to adore each other, but to me their behavior seems to show exactly the opposite, as Diosdado seeks the limelight daily and tends to be much more aggressive than Maduro. He also seems to always make statements whenever Maduro says something, indicating there is little coordination between the two.
Meanwhile I found that almost every opposition person I talked to had a different plan and/or opinion on what to do now. The range goes from those that swear they will not vote in the upcoming Presidential election, to those that believe that Capriles strategy is the only possible strategy. More surprisingly, it seems that the only thing that unites all these people is the belief that absent Chávez, Maduro is beatable, which I disagree with, if the election were to take place before April.
The Government is clearly trying to build up Chavez’ mythical image and Maduro’s campaign is clearly going to be based on exactly that, which may be the only explanation for delaying the election: They intend to take advantage of the adoration of Chávez to insure PSUV’s permanence in power. And it will work, as long as the election is not delayed beyond March.
Beyond March, because the country continues on hold, even if Maduro arrived last night claiming to have a set of economic measures approved by Chávez. Meanwhile my conversations with local manufacturers shows that CADIVI has not been paying bills for months, creating shortages of all sorts of products and indicating that the devaluation has to be larger than expected in order to insure that demand contracts. The fiscal numbers simply do not add up and monetary liquidity has gone up 142% since the last devaluation, that is there are 142% more Bolivars in the system than two years ago, but reserves are the same, giving an implicit exchange rate of Bs. 25 for each dollar in reserves.
But I really do not expect much from these “measures”. It is likely to be more smoke and mirrors to support the system until an election takes place, rather than real economic measures to attempt to resolve the many distortions in the Venezuelan economy.
You can bank on that and it is likely to be the subject of my next post.
The Devil's Excrement 
January 28, 2013 at 4:17 pm
New Vídeo ofChavez Maduro and Fidel in Cuba…
http://www.muerachavez.blogspot.dk/2013/01/video-inedito-de-chavez-maduro-y-raul.html#.UQbcQh1A2So
January 28, 2013 at 8:04 am
Hold an election soon, and the Chavez followers will obey the wishes of their messiah and elect Maduro, hoping to keep the goodies coming. I would bet a little cash on it.
January 27, 2013 at 2:50 pm
A really good summary post. Thanks!
January 27, 2013 at 12:33 pm
LLegó el Pollo, y este vídeo increíble nos demuestra de lo que es capaz. http://muerachavez.blogspot.fi/2013/01/llego-el-pollo-increible-reaccion-del.html#.UQVV4x1A2Sp
January 27, 2013 at 11:11 am
Too bad we can’t see anything which would identify which country he is in. Or who the people are who are walking with him. or when the photo was taken.
January 27, 2013 at 10:58 am
Looks like it could be the real deal.
I need to look closer into this Santaria shit.
January 27, 2013 at 10:54 am
Does anybody have seen this picture before? (months, not days):
http://noticiaaldia.com/2013/01/chavez-camina-por-la-habana/
(Is that authentic? who would have leaked that and why…?)
It could be recent, at least I don’t remember HCh without hair and convalescent (and now he probably is). If true, then he is at least able to make decisions and I would bet he realizes now that is better to campaign (somehow, well a signature would do that…) for Maduro.
January 27, 2013 at 11:10 am
That photo was all over the internet last week.
From what I remember it was proven to be from 2011.
January 27, 2013 at 11:27 am
I was skeptical first, but I don’t remember seeing it before (2011-2012) and shows a very thin -legs- HCh after chemo, don’t correspond in the treatment time line before (as known). Yet you realize why the “uniform” is used…
January 27, 2013 at 9:38 am
I agree with you Miguel that Maduro is not easily beatable as people voted for disliked candidates in the Interior just because Chavez endorsed them.
January 31, 2013 at 10:49 pm
If and it is a big if -Maduro would debate Caprilles on TV wouldn’t that change everything?
January 27, 2013 at 8:50 am
Miguel, on CADIVI the situation is at a critical moment, with import licenses approved by the various Ministries, and the goods delivered nationalized in Venezuela for more than 200 days, $ currencies not listed in the supplier’s accounts, a situation that undermines trust and close the credit to businesses, and we can say SITME the list to award $, this system must be equal to the dealer to purchase a new vehicle.
January 27, 2013 at 7:57 am
Venezuelan prison riots and collateral damage
January 27, 2013 at 2:29 am
This is how the president of Uruguay lives.
http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6524305/87f305c1/armste_president_ter_wereld.html
remarkable BBC doc. I did not know this.
January 27, 2013 at 7:58 am
Wow Arco, contrast that to how every other president lives. Amazing. I’m no leftist, but if I was, that’d be how’d I’d want my president to live….by example.
January 31, 2013 at 10:46 pm
I am so glad youmentioned this. It is old news really but I love it!
He refuses to wear a suit and tie, etc as well and lives inhis home
Just beautiful!!!
January 27, 2013 at 1:41 am
You know what I’d really like to mention…? The very interesting remarks about President Chavez’ health made by Ministro Ernesto Villegas from Chile. He said (and I quote): “La evolución general del paciente es favorable. Para este momento, la infección respiratoria grave ha sido SUPERADA.” and with the same breath he said (and I quote again): “Aunque persiste CIERTO GRADO DE INSUFICIENCIA RESPIRATORIA que esta siendo debidamente tratada”. Why do they have to treat (TRATAR) something that has been SUPERADO??? C’mon, how much junk do we have to hear before someone stands up and shows all the crap they’re full of??? Cant stand it!
January 26, 2013 at 11:16 pm
And on top of all this China, Rusia, e India put in stand by lending and investments to Venezuela. Check it out in the following web site:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/chavez-s-cancer-freezes-oil-funding-from-russia-to-india-energy.html
January 26, 2013 at 6:17 pm
Chemotherapy and lung damage and then it makes sense, why Jaua “communicated” (no “hablamos”, “conversamos” but “comunicamos”) with him, maybe in isolation regime and/or assisted respiration.
January 26, 2013 at 6:56 pm
Exacty. Look at every comment by Jaua, Maduro and others and all use slippery slidy words that could mean something completely different and none have ever explictly said that Chavez has spoken any sense, all their descriptions could be done by nodding his head: do you send best wishes to the people? nods…etc
January 27, 2013 at 1:43 am
No firkin kidding man. They’re choosing their words carefully.
It reminds me of the TV series called SCANDAL! LOL
January 26, 2013 at 6:08 pm
“El presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, ha comenzado a recibir tratamiento médico sistémico para enfermedad de base” read: chemotherapy.
Add damage to the lung and it looks like that was the last trip to Cuba.
January 26, 2013 at 8:19 pm
chemo or morphine.
January 26, 2013 at 6:02 pm
My lady and I were channel surfing the other night and came across what had to be a government-sponsored channel. We sat in stunned silence listening to the lyrics of song after song…..each one about the beauty of “the revolution”, but very little about Chavez himself.
I looked at her after we finally switched channels and said, “you know what that was all about, don’t you?”. She said, “yes, the government is preparing the masses for the transition from idolizing Chavez to idolizing the revolution”.
She was, of course, exactly right.
Will it work? Don’t know.
As for the comments about the value of the bolivar versus the dollar, in a previous DE segment I mentioned that my son-in-law called a week ago or so and told us that to buy supplies in Colombia, he had to pay 24 Bs/$. Sounds spot-on.
January 31, 2013 at 10:41 pm
“yes, the government is preparing the masses for the transition from idolizing Chavez to idolizing the revolution”.
The masses of chavistas are following Chavez straight over the cliff to nowhere,
nothingness- What freakin revolution? Largest robbery ever, that is all.
January 26, 2013 at 5:10 pm
I noticed they stated Hugo Chavez gave orders about the gold reserves which will be “explained later by Petroleum and Mining Minister Rafael Ramírez,” I assume this means they will be liquidating even more… by the time the opposition comes to power in Venezuela I doubt there will be any gold remaining.
January 26, 2013 at 5:11 pm
Also, they will probably strip out the copper pipes in Miraflores!
January 26, 2013 at 4:44 pm
Miguel, about this:
“giving an implicit exchange rate of Bs. 25 for each dollar in reserves.”
Does this mean the market price of Bs, could be in that range? The unofficial exchange rate dipped below 18 this week, iirc.
January 26, 2013 at 5:01 pm
No, it means that any rate below 15 is unsustainable, because there are too many Bs. chasing for those $, companies and people need Bs. to function, but if you liberate the exchange rate a large fraction would try to buy $.
January 26, 2013 at 5:48 pm
15! I’ve read 7.5, then 9,…now 15? Wow.
January 26, 2013 at 6:44 pm
I am talking about a floating rate
January 27, 2013 at 4:53 pm
Floating rate? Is that a delicadenza word for possible free fall as we saw in the 90’s and much of the fourth republic and swept under the rug in the present one? From what I have read, unless this is followed by major economic changes in Venezuela, it will just make things worse.
January 27, 2013 at 10:27 am
Ok thanks. That implicates 300% inflation on artificially cheap goods, right?
January 27, 2013 at 5:04 pm
The actual exchange rate is 17.
January 26, 2013 at 2:33 pm
Nothing much should be expected if/when economic measures are taken because any real measure will like likely hurt Chavez’s base (the poor) more than anyone else. Don’t expect, for example, the price of gas to be increased any time soon…
January 26, 2013 at 1:51 pm
An update about the medical condition will be given today but in Chile (Celac), why? maybe something about new elections? They are already trying to postpone mayoral elections.
January 26, 2013 at 1:53 pm
And forgot to say that the cataplasma maduro have the charm of a dead sand rat.
January 26, 2013 at 1:54 pm
What’s happening in the pict forgot to ask.
January 26, 2013 at 4:59 pm
The picture is the Chavez glorified version of put the tail on the donkey
January 27, 2013 at 2:39 am
Torso is no show. (cough)
January 31, 2013 at 4:20 am
Oh I can see this pict finally, how Mao!!! They should make one with the picture of Iris Varela and her big heart, ni sai baba pués.
January 26, 2013 at 1:51 pm
Very good reading Miguel. I honestly don’t think chavismo will support itself much longer without his Steve jobs. And taking the analogy further I have to say that apple makes great products while Venezuela chavista is far from great. Hopefully the oppo will put their different apparts and focus all on capriles win this marketing game.
January 26, 2013 at 1:57 pm
Will = will not. Sorry I am on a car txting. Not the driver.
January 26, 2013 at 12:40 pm
How long can they get away with holding up a piece of paper with a signature on it? As you say, if elections are held in the short erm Maduro will probably win: el pueblo needs to get a bit disillusioned first: Maduro, Cabello, Jaua et al are not Chavez and haven’t got a hope when the tide turns…