Archive for April, 2004

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Another day, another trick!

April 16, 2004

In another bizarre act for the process for signature ratification, the legal counsel to the Board of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) presented a draft of regulations which diverged significantly from what had been negotiated in the last two weeks with the opposition.


I guess I continue to be naïve enough about these people, to be surprised at their lack of ethics and scruples. The lawyer who is the chief legal counsel of the CNE seems to at times to have more power than any of the CNE Directors themselves. This is the third or fourth time that he has done exactly the same thing: present an outrageous proposal for regulations that differs from what everyone has been discussing or negotiating, This not only deteriorates the atmosphere for negotiations, but always has so far forced the opposition to negotiate for an agreement at the last minute which is not optimal.


 


This time around the main problems are two article not considered, discussed or included in any part of the negotiations before:


 


Artículo 22: Muestra. El Consejo Nacional Electoral tomará una muestra de las huellas dactilares equivalentes al cincuenta por ciento (50%) de los electores que concurrieron a reparar en cada evento y la cotejará con Las huellas estampadas en las planillas de recolección e firmas del evento correspondiente.


 


This article basically says that 50% of the fingerprints of those ratifying their signature will have to be checked. This not only has never been discussed, but there is no database or technology to do this on time.


 


And then there this article:


 


Artículo 23. Dudas y Vacíos. Los supuestos no previstos en las presentes normas, así como las dudas que se generen en su aplicación, serán resueltos por el Consejo Nacional Electoral.


 


Which says that anything not considered in these regulations will be decided by the CNE. This had in fact been considered and the agreement reached was that of a “sudden death”: People go and ratify according to the regulations, totals are added up and the same night as the process is closed an announcement is made of the totals, much like it is done in regular elections.


 


As if this were not enough, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez gives a press conference saying that they had corrected “the noise generated by some initial writing”. With this statement Mr. Rodriguez demonstrates how hypocritical and cynical he is. The problems with the two articles quoted above are not with the writing, but with their content. In any serious institutions, where negotiations had been carried out to reach an agreement, the proposal written by the legal counsel of the CNE would have entitled him to being fired on the spot.


 


Of course, right after Mr. Rodríguez’ announcement one of the chief Ayacucho clowns William Lara came out asking for guarantees against fraud, talking about some proof of fraud during the Reafirmazo by the opposition. But Lara’s statements to me are simply an indication that the events of the last twenty four hours are not coincidental and now the pro-Chavez forces will make some “noise” tomorrow.  Such is life in the Vth. Republic!

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April 15, 2004

 


When the CNE first reported the proposed methodology for the ratification process of the signatures, the opposition said that there were ten technical problems that would make the ratification process difficult for those that signed in the Reafirmazo. According to opposition sources six of those ten have been resolved and only four are inadequate for the Coordinadora Democratica.


 


What the CNE has done is to continue its string of tricks to make the ratification process as insurmountable as possible. In the same way that tricks were used to disqualify or place under observation a sufficiently large number of signatures, tricks are being used now to make the ratification process as difficult as possible.


 


Any rational person would argue that the ratification process should differ little from the process used in gathering the signatures. After all, any electoral authority always has as its main objective to facilitate the ability of the voters to express their opinion, not the other way around. In that peculiar logic of the Bolivarian revolution, this is not the case. Paraphrasing Francisco Toro’s article today, there is nothing Aristotelian about the logical process being followed by the CNE for the ratification process.


 


One can begin from the regulations issued in September for the ratification process. Such regulations clearly state that the process would use up five days. Now, five days is five days, not three, but using that incredible ability to make matters gray and wishy washy, the CNE has announced that the first day will be used for setting up the polling booths and the last one to dismantle them. Thus, in true Chavista magic trick fashion five becomes three but it is five. On the last day, people may go to regional centers which are few and far between, but the almost three thousand centers will be closed. Trick #1.


 


At the next level you have the number of centers to be used, the opposition finally managed to convince the CNE to use the same number of polling centers used in the Reafirmazo process, something that seems absolutely logical, but was quite a sticky point for quite a while. Originally, the CNE had proposed as many as a fourth of that number. Thus, the opposition managed to convince the CNE to stick to the same number. However, the centers will not be located at the same place where people signed during the Reafirmazo. Why? Since the process will be managed and controlled by the CNE, the centers will be the usual electoral centers used in elections and not the improvised polling booths used by the opposition in gathering the signatures. This will confuse people quite a bit. Trick #2.


 


In the Reafirmazo, signatures were gathered manually originating the huge problem (or trick) with the signatures with the same calligraphy. This time around, there will be electoral books in which the data for each person that has a valid signature or a signature that needs to be ratified will be included. However, in addition to this, there will be a PC with communications where the same data (we hope!) entered into the electoral books, will be entered by CNE operators. As we will see the presence of these PC’s becomes Tricks’ #3 and Tricks #4.


 


First of all, the CNE argues that it can not purchase the number of laptops the opposition wants. What the opposition has done is to calculate how long it would take for everyone whose signature has problems to go and attempt to ratify their signature. Their answer is that the 3000 centers are sufficient, but you would need an average of thee PC’s per center in order to process every one of them. The CNE refuses to give in on this point. They argue that the written forms have created such a problem that they want to have a parallel mechanism of cross-checking what is in the books. They also argue they don’t have the money to buy the 10,000 laptops that would be required to satisfy the opposition. Given that the CNE will run the process there seems to be no justification for this. If CNE workers will ask the person to show their national ID card in order to sign, how could anyone cheat on these books? Trick #3.


 


Once Trick #3 is in place, it automatically rules out the possibility of having itinerant volunteers visiting those that signed using the itinerant process, since it is not possible to have these people carry laptops all over the place. This is a very important point because while only 15% of the signatures were itinerant, most of the itinerant signature gatherers in the Reafirmazo, who visited those that could not go to the polling places either because they were sick or because they were intimidated, filled out the forms with the data for those signing. Thus, most of these close to 500,000 signatures are in the same calligraphy or “plana” category. This is actually a two pronged trick, first those that can’t go, can’t possibly ratify. Secondly, those that can go, have no idea to what polling station they have to go. Estimates are that only 25% of the itinerant forms that were invalidated may be ratified. Trick #4.


 


So these are the bad news, four tricks that make it quite difficult for the ratification process to be successful. The process is designed to satisfy only a fraction of those that could attend. However, there is also some good news that also needs to be taken into account:


 


-The number of signatures that the CNE has validated has apparently climbed once again above 1.9 million making the task easier for the opposition. Originally, CNE President Carrasquero had announced that more than 1.9 million signatures were valid, but the number was down by almost one hundred thousand signatures in the first database handed out to the opposition, but reportedly is up again the second database.


 


-The number of signatures that can be ratified has also climbed above 1.3 million above the initial value of 1.2 million.


 


-The estimate is that the Government will not be too successful in its efforts to have people that did sign go and say they did not. Estimates suggest that the number will likely be around 60,000 in the worst case scenario.


 


-Polls suggest that 85% of those that signed say they want to participate in the ratification process.


 


Finally, there is an additional negative: Some political parties and organizations have decided that under no circumstances the opposition should participate in the ratification process. Their help in getting the people out to the polling stations and motivating the people is definitely a negative.


 


These tricks are very real, those advising the Coordinadora Democrática on technical aspects may in the end tip the balance on the final decision to participate or not. If it looks like an impossible task, it will be a no go so as not to legitimize the Chavista lies, if it looks doable, the process will move forward and the opposition will try to get the people involved and participating using numerous strategies. At this point, with the current rules, it looks feasible but marginal. There are simply too many tricks.

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April 15, 2004

 


When the CNE first reported the proposed methodology for the ratification process of the signatures, the opposition said that there were ten technical problems that would make the ratification process difficult for those that signed in the Reafirmazo. According to opposition sources six of those ten have been resolved and only four are inadequate for the Coordinadora Democratica.


 


What the CNE has done is to continue its string of tricks to make the ratification process as insurmountable as possible. In the same way that tricks were used to disqualify or place under observation a sufficiently large number of signatures, tricks are being used now to make the ratification process as difficult as possible.


 


Any rational person would argue that the ratification process should differ little from the process used in gathering the signatures. After all, any electoral authority always has as its main objective to facilitate the ability of the voters to express their opinion, not the other way around. In that peculiar logic of the Bolivarian revolution, this is not the case. Paraphrasing Francisco Toro’s article today, there is nothing Aristotelian about the logical process being followed by the CNE for the ratification process.


 


One can begin from the regulations issued in September for the ratification process. Such regulations clearly state that the process would use up five days. Now, five days is five days, not three, but using that incredible ability to make matters gray and wishy washy, the CNE has announced that the first day will be used for setting up the polling booths and the last one to dismantle them. Thus, in true Chavista magic trick fashion five becomes three but it is five. On the last day, people may go to regional centers which are few and far between, but the almost three thousand centers will be closed. Trick #1.


 


At the next level you have the number of centers to be used, the opposition finally managed to convince the CNE to use the same number of polling centers used in the Reafirmazo process, something that seems absolutely logical, but was quite a sticky point for quite a while. Originally, the CNE had proposed as many as a fourth of that number. Thus, the opposition managed to convince the CNE to stick to the same number. However, the centers will not be located at the same place where people signed during the Reafirmazo. Why? Since the process will be managed and controlled by the CNE, the centers will be the usual electoral centers used in elections and not the improvised polling booths used by the opposition in gathering the signatures. This will confuse people quite a bit. Trick #2.


 


In the Reafirmazo, signatures were gathered manually originating the huge problem (or trick) with the signatures with the same calligraphy. This time around, there will be electoral books in which the data for each person that has a valid signature or a signature that needs to be ratified will be included. However, in addition to this, there will be a PC with communications where the same data (we hope!) entered into the electoral books, will be entered by CNE operators. As we will see the presence of these PC’s becomes Tricks’ #3 and Tricks #4.


 


First of all, the CNE argues that it can not purchase the number of laptops the opposition wants. What the opposition has done is to calculate how long it would take for everyone whose signature has problems to go and attempt to ratify their signature. Their answer is that the 3000 centers are sufficient, but you would need an average of thee PC’s per center in order to process every one of them. The CNE refuses to give in on this point. They argue that the written forms have created such a problem that they want to have a parallel mechanism of cross-checking what is in the books. They also argue they don’t have the money to buy the 10,000 laptops that would be required to satisfy the opposition. Given that the CNE will run the process there seems to be no justification for this. If CNE workers will ask the person to show their national ID card in order to sign, how could anyone cheat on these books? Trick #3.


 


Once Trick #3 is in place, it automatically rules out the possibility of having itinerant volunteers visiting those that signed using the itinerant process, since it is not possible to have these people carry laptops all over the place. This is a very important point because while only 15% of the signatures were itinerant, most of the itinerant signature gatherers in the Reafirmazo, who visited those that could not go to the polling places either because they were sick or because they were intimidated, filled out the forms with the data for those signing. Thus, most of these close to 500,000 signatures are in the same calligraphy or “plana” category. This is actually a two pronged trick, first those that can’t go, can’t possibly ratify. Secondly, those that can go, have no idea to what polling station they have to go. Estimates are that only 25% of the itinerant forms that were invalidated may be ratified. Trick #4.


 


So these are the bad news, four tricks that make it quite difficult for the ratification process to be successful. The process is designed to satisfy only a fraction of those that could attend. However, there is also some good news that also needs to be taken into account:


 


-The number of signatures that the CNE has validated has apparently climbed once again above 1.9 million making the task easier for the opposition. Originally, CNE President Carrasquero had announced that more than 1.9 million signatures were valid, but the number was down by almost one hundred thousand signatures in the first database handed out to the opposition, but reportedly is up again the second database.


 


-The number of signatures that can be ratified has also climbed above 1.3 million above the initial value of 1.2 million.


 


-The estimate is that the Government will not be too successful in its efforts to have people that did sign go and say they did not. Estimates suggest that the number will likely be around 60,000 in the worst case scenario.


 


-Polls suggest that 85% of those that signed say they want to participate in the ratification process.


 


Finally, there is an additional negative: Some political parties and organizations have decided that under no circumstances the opposition should participate in the ratification process. Their help in getting the people out to the polling stations and motivating the people is definitely a negative.


 


These tricks are very real, those advising the Coordinadora Democrática on technical aspects may in the end tip the balance on the final decision to participate or not. If it looks like an impossible task, it will be a no go so as not to legitimize the Chavista lies, if it looks doable, the process will move forward and the opposition will try to get the people involved and participating using numerous strategies. At this point, with the current rules, it looks feasible but marginal. There are simply too many tricks.

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Deceit and treachery in the Supreme Court

April 15, 2004

One of the Justices of the Constitutional Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court said tonight that the decision by the Constitutional Hall to assume the case of the forms with the same calligraphy is void. According to justice Rondon, there irregularities ere incurred to stop him from adding his dissenting vote on the decision, which would make the decision invalid.


Rondo said that once the sentence has been written, he had five days to hand in his dissenting opinion; however, the decision was published before the five day period had gone by.


 


Such is the state of corruption in the judicial system of the Vth. Republic.

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Deceit and treachery in the Supreme Court

April 15, 2004

One of the Justices of the Constitutional Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court said tonight that the decision by the Constitutional Hall to assume the case of the forms with the same calligraphy is void. According to justice Rondon, there irregularities ere incurred to stop him from adding his dissenting vote on the decision, which would make the decision invalid.


Rondo said that once the sentence has been written, he had five days to hand in his dissenting opinion; however, the decision was published before the five day period had gone by.


 


Such is the state of corruption in the judicial system of the Vth. Republic.

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CNE sets signature ratification process for May

April 14, 2004

CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced the dates for the ratification of the signatures for the recall referenda of the opposition Deputies (from May 13th. to May 17th.) and for pro-Chavez Deputies and the President (from May 20th. to the 24th.). There will be 2,659 centers to do it in the same locations where the signatures were gathered last November.


The CNE Director abstained from saying which signatures will or not be included in the process, concentrating on the procedure to be used. Thus, the opposition will have until the date of the ratification to have the Supreme Court force the CNE to exclude the forms with the same calligraphy from the ratification process as well as including the 39,000 forms rejected outright.


 


Rodriguez announced that the whole process will be run and monitored by the CNE alone, but there will be one witness for each side on each polling booth. In another amazing twist of the regulations, the five days stipulated will be reduced to only three, with the first and last day being used to set up and dismount the polling booths.


 


I can not get too excited about this announcement. The opposition needs more than 60% of the people to show up to ratify their signatures, there will be lots of confusion about who has to go or not and ratify their signature and the time is too restricted. Moreover, I still do not understand the role of the PC’s at the polling booths. It is an unnecessary expense that in my mind has the purpose of allowing the Chavez Government to monitor the process and apply further pressure on those that signed to go say they did not.


 


I also believe that the absence of any possibility of itinerant ratification will stop the old, the sick as well as the poor from going to ratify their signatures. Unless the Court forces the CNE to allow those 39,000 forms to be part of the ratification I can not be too positive. Having said that, I will still go tomorrow and volunteer and be trained by the Democratic Coordinator (CD) to aid people in the process of ratifying their signatures. What the CD will be doing is set up centers to give out information on whether a signature was deemed valid or not by the CNE and if it is subject to ratification or not.

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CNE sets signature ratification process for May

April 14, 2004

CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced the dates for the ratification of the signatures for the recall referenda of the opposition Deputies (from May 13th. to May 17th.) and for pro-Chavez Deputies and the President (from May 20th. to the 24th.). There will be 2,659 centers to do it in the same locations where the signatures were gathered last November.


The CNE Director abstained from saying which signatures will or not be included in the process, concentrating on the procedure to be used. Thus, the opposition will have until the date of the ratification to have the Supreme Court force the CNE to exclude the forms with the same calligraphy from the ratification process as well as including the 39,000 forms rejected outright.


 


Rodriguez announced that the whole process will be run and monitored by the CNE alone, but there will be one witness for each side on each polling booth. In another amazing twist of the regulations, the five days stipulated will be reduced to only three, with the first and last day being used to set up and dismount the polling booths.


 


I can not get too excited about this announcement. The opposition needs more than 60% of the people to show up to ratify their signatures, there will be lots of confusion about who has to go or not and ratify their signature and the time is too restricted. Moreover, I still do not understand the role of the PC’s at the polling booths. It is an unnecessary expense that in my mind has the purpose of allowing the Chavez Government to monitor the process and apply further pressure on those that signed to go say they did not.


 


I also believe that the absence of any possibility of itinerant ratification will stop the old, the sick as well as the poor from going to ratify their signatures. Unless the Court forces the CNE to allow those 39,000 forms to be part of the ratification I can not be too positive. Having said that, I will still go tomorrow and volunteer and be trained by the Democratic Coordinator (CD) to aid people in the process of ratifying their signatures. What the CD will be doing is set up centers to give out information on whether a signature was deemed valid or not by the CNE and if it is subject to ratification or not.

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Colombian Senate takes strong stand against Venezuelan Government

April 14, 2004

Today the Colombian Senate approved a declaration today backing the Venezuelan opposition in its request for a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez, calling for an immediate call for the referendum. In the declaration, the Colombian Senate calls for the application of the OAS Democratic charter of which Venezuela is a participant. The Colombian Senate argued that they are making this request due to the fact that the Chavze regime is not recognizing the principles that oversee a democracy and human rights.


The decision is important because it shows the growing concern in Latin America over the Venezuelan situation and puts added pressure on Chavez and the Government to follow the country’s Constitution. It is no small step for the Senate of the neighboring country to do what they did today. This will clearly put a damper on Venezuelan-Colombian relations, one of the most significant trading partners the country has.


 


The pressure on the Chavez administration goes both ways, they could decide to accept the pressure or it could push the Government further into the realm of illegality.  The Minister of Foreign Relations argued that the decision is a coarse interference n the country’s affairs, while Deputy Tarek William Saab called it media noise and a publicity stunt, attempting to blame the Us Government on the announcement.


 


As usual, Venezuelan Government officials twisted the reality calling the decision an interference in Venezuelan politics, forgetting the terms of the Interamerican Democratic Charter, which allows any member Government to ask for the charter to be invoked. It is clearly within the scope of the Colombian Senate to ask its Government requesting such an act.


 


It will be interesting to see what the reaction of the Colombian Government is. It clearly creates problems for its diplomacy. While internally the Colombian Government may agree with the declaration by the Senate, they may disagree with the timing of the vote, preferring to wait until the Chavez Government has stepped further away from legality before addressing the issue.


 


At the same time, it is clear that the Interamerican Democratic Charter has mostly been empty words so far as it was useless in the case of the Fujimori Government and its existence has done little to induce the Chavez administration to obey its own Constitution and stop the violation of Human Rights in Venezuela. In fact, during the last month and a half human rights violations and the attempt to cover them up have intensified in both numbers and intensity, unmasking the true nature of the Government.


 


For the opposition, it is another small step and a recognition that following the democratic path is working and international opinion is no longer on Chavez’ side.

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Colombian Senate takes strong stand against Venezuelan Government

April 14, 2004

Today the Colombian Senate approved a declaration today backing the Venezuelan opposition in its request for a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez, calling for an immediate call for the referendum. In the declaration, the Colombian Senate calls for the application of the OAS Democratic charter of which Venezuela is a participant. The Colombian Senate argued that they are making this request due to the fact that the Chavze regime is not recognizing the principles that oversee a democracy and human rights.


The decision is important because it shows the growing concern in Latin America over the Venezuelan situation and puts added pressure on Chavez and the Government to follow the country’s Constitution. It is no small step for the Senate of the neighboring country to do what they did today. This will clearly put a damper on Venezuelan-Colombian relations, one of the most significant trading partners the country has.


 


The pressure on the Chavez administration goes both ways, they could decide to accept the pressure or it could push the Government further into the realm of illegality.  The Minister of Foreign Relations argued that the decision is a coarse interference n the country’s affairs, while Deputy Tarek William Saab called it media noise and a publicity stunt, attempting to blame the Us Government on the announcement.


 


As usual, Venezuelan Government officials twisted the reality calling the decision an interference in Venezuelan politics, forgetting the terms of the Interamerican Democratic Charter, which allows any member Government to ask for the charter to be invoked. It is clearly within the scope of the Colombian Senate to ask its Government requesting such an act.


 


It will be interesting to see what the reaction of the Colombian Government is. It clearly creates problems for its diplomacy. While internally the Colombian Government may agree with the declaration by the Senate, they may disagree with the timing of the vote, preferring to wait until the Chavez Government has stepped further away from legality before addressing the issue.


 


At the same time, it is clear that the Interamerican Democratic Charter has mostly been empty words so far as it was useless in the case of the Fujimori Government and its existence has done little to induce the Chavez administration to obey its own Constitution and stop the violation of Human Rights in Venezuela. In fact, during the last month and a half human rights violations and the attempt to cover them up have intensified in both numbers and intensity, unmasking the true nature of the Government.


 


For the opposition, it is another small step and a recognition that following the democratic path is working and international opinion is no longer on Chavez’ side.

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Baduell the institutional cynic

April 13, 2004

 


And talking about doublespeak and cover up, how about General Baduell saying today that the Armed Forces will not hide anything about the burnt soldiers!


 


Well, Raul, where the hell have you been the last two weeks after every single fact has been covered up and hidden and that media that you call on to “respect” those suffering is the one that uncovered the lies of the Government and the military? Did you not notice that a soldier had to die for the military and the Government to admit there was a problem? Where was your “investigation” before that?


 


Where were you Raul Baduell two weeks ago as Chavez told everyone that the injuries were “slight’? Where were you when the media made the accusation that the fire was provoked, which was denied by your fellow Generals including the Minister of Defense, but turned out to be the truth? Where were you when the soldiers were moved against doctors orders? Where were you when the soldier died? Where are you today when the Supreme Court is not obeyed? Where are you when people’s rights are being violated daily?


 


The truth General Baduell is that you are one of those people that goes through the world being careful to advance your own position without sticking your neck out. You did not stick your neck out in 1992, twice! You said nothing during April 2002 and only after your fellow Generals were killed in an air crash you took the credit for returning Chavez to power saying you were “institutional”. I guess that means you are institutional as long as it will promote you within the institution.


 


Whatever happened to that institution called the Constitution? It only took you two years to say today that you never accepted the Carmona Government! Maybe you are just slow, I just wonder how you will try to advance yourself when Chavez is finally gone, I bet you will act very fast to embrace your so called institutionality. But we will be here to remind you that you are as big a cynic as the rest of them.

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