The Devil's Excrement

It was a very intense and confusing day in Venezuela today. It all started with Vielma Mora’s statements, which likely threw a curve ball at Nicolas, who can barely handle a softball. While many were wary of Vielma’s statements or confessions, who cares? The importance of Vielma’s statements is not that he may become the leader of any force, but that it throws a monkey wrench into Nicolas’ dream world. A shaky Maduro now has to face internal dissent, when he can barely manage his own faithful groups.

Because even when Vielma tried to backtrack:

He still said “I assume my words one by one“. i.e., no censorship, no repression, no overflights, no Leopoldo in jail, even if he “loves” the revolution.

Jeez, if he loves it so much, why is it so imperfect? Why not just blast it and be done with it?

And as Maduro met with motorcycle drivers, the wrong image, even if they were not part of the same armed groups terrorizing Venezuela today, you have to wonder what goes through Nicolas’ clearly feeble mind. He should have never left his bus driving position.

And for those PSF’s visiting us recently claiming the US wants Maduro to go, I remind them that you know little about what is going on here in Venezuela. Among other things, besides the worst repression of the last 15 years, “Madurismo” or whatever you may want to call that guys’ following, is avoiding the Constitution blatantly, including:

-The Venezuelan Supreme Court is full of Justices who are alternates. In order to name full time members of the Supreme Court, you need 2/3 of the Deputies of the National Assembly to approve them, something Maduro wants to avoid.

-The same is true of the members of the Electoral Board, whose terms expired in April of last year. The Government has made no move to elect them.

-And the Comptroller died two yeras ago and has yet to be replaced. Another position that requires 2/3 majority.

And even Henrique Capriles, who days ago was taking a Ghandi-like position, today came out blasting Maduro and refusing to meet with him. I heard only part of what he said, so here is Bloomberg’s quotes:

BFW 02/24 20:14 *CAPRILES SAYS VENEZUELA HAS TO FIND `EXIT’ TO MADURO PRESIDENCY
BN 02/24 20:14 *CAPRILES SAYS `THE BOAT IS SINKING’ AFTER REJECTING TALKS
BFW 02/24 20:13 *VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION GOVERNOR SAYS HE WON’T ATTEND TALKS
BN 02/24 20:07 *CAPRILES SAYS 242 PROTESTORS STILL DETAINED
BN 02/24 20:06 *CAPRILES SAYS 649 VENEZUELANS DETAINED IN PROTESTS SO FAR

So much for a Mandela style or Ghandi-like posture, Capriles finally seems mad.

And he should be. And he should not call for a “truth” commission, unless Maduro has some form of gesture, like releasing Leopoldo Lopez or Simonovis, or all of the above.

Or Maduro could resign too…Given the deaths, the repression, the human rights violations, that is what Maduro should really do. He will have to soon anyway.

In fact, Capriles (can’t find the quote) suggested that Maduro had committed genocide, not easy words to pronounce when you are talking about a President.

But with twelve deaths form the depression so far and over 600 detained, that is exactly what is going on in Venezuela.

Because Art. 53 of the Venezuelan Constitution says anyone can gather publicly with anyone without permission.

And Art. 55 says security forces have to respect people’s human rights

And Art. 49 says every person has the right to be judged by his natural judges, but Leopoldo is in a military prison, where he was charged.

And the same Art. 49 says that every person has the right to know why he is being charged, have access to the evidence and time to prepare a defense. None of this is being followed in Venezuela with the protesters.

And on top of that they are being killed (twelve so far) injured and repressed violently, without Maduro even showing that he knows what is going on in the country he presides over.

And to top it all off, Maduro declares Thursday Feb. 27th. and Friday Feb. 28th. to be holidays, so that Venezuelans will have six days off in  a row, since next week are the Carnival holidays.

Clearly Maduro does not want to offer peace, he is hoping protests will go away. But like Valentine’s day, when the same strategy backfired, he may be surprised again.

In fact, people are as militant as ever today. What did Vielma know that he said what he said? Why did Capriles become aggressive all of a sudden?

I don’t know, but when two such dissimilar political figures act the same way, something is afoot. Some crack in the facade is showing. Some weakness is being perceived and they both want to take advantage of it.

Remember, if Maduro resigns, the Constitutional way out of it is elections within a month and both sides seem to be jockeying for position in that race.

just a feeling…

(And Ramirez talked about Sicad 2, who cares?)

Hey! Vielma Mora, f…. you!

Governor of Tachira Jose Vielma Mora

In a surprising development, pro-Government Chavista Governor Jose Vielma Mora distanced himself sharply from the Government.(audio link to interview included) Tachira is the most radical state in its protests against the Government of the last few weeks.

Among other things Vielma stated:

“I am autonomous… I have asked General Bermudez (who led the repression in his State) to be replaced …to show my intention of peace””I do not agree with Simonovis and Leopoldo Lopez being kept in jail””There is a problem of shortages and there is an economic problem, there is a problem with the foreign exchange differential””I am against censorship of any kind””I disagree with flying military jets over Tachira, it was an unacceptable excess””Students have a right to protest”
“There was an excess of General Pirela of the National Guard, he was replaced”There you have it, the first major Chavista political figure to clearly distance himself from the Government. This creates a new problem for an already tangled Nicola maduro. The only question at tis time is whether Vielma Mora acted alone, knows something or is simply being opportunistic. No matter which, this is a very significant development for Venezuela and the current events taking place in it.But only time will tell why he did it.

As I said today, students are getting more organized. Nowhere is this more the case than in Tachira State, where this protests begun. For those that say that this is a middle class protest, look at San Cristobal, the capital of Tachira, a state that suffers from the fact that 30-40% of the food in Venezuela is being smuggled to Colombia to be sold. If you think things are scarce in Caracas, try going to a supermarket there.

San Cristobal has suffered the brunt of the repression. Last night they had no lights, no internet and no water. Despite this, the people have kept up the fight. Reportedly 70% of the city is in the hands of the protesters. Tonight,  I have heard little from San Cristibal, maybe the blackout is complete. I just don’t know.

What I do know is that the gochos, as people from the Andes are called, are tough people. They have been at this fight longer than anyone, so they have learned. Here are examples of some of the barricades and some of the tactics that these Venezuelans are using:

A simple barricade, bring lots of junk to block tanks from going by How about some big rocks to block the way. This pebble seems to do the job

The Government never built the water system , but they did leave the concrete pipes, let’s use them!

Why don’t we move this small tree onto the street?

Ours is bigger than yours!!!

How about this home made anti-pellet vest?

Wait for it, wait for it, now!

(Thanks to all the people that sent pictures, many were repeated, you know who you are)

Life in Caracas right now is anything but normal. Last night, I tried to go to the supermarket at &:30 PM as I had little to eat where I stay, but just as I got there, they were closing, as students had started to protest in the neighborhood. Except for some crackers and a precious tangerine, that was all I ate through the Beirutesque evening near Plaza Altamira. Not a bad diet, if you want to look at the positive side.

Today, many people did not go to work, they could not get out of their neighborhoods or they decided they would not hassle the traffic in the evening another day. Thus, Caracas was quite empty, little traffic, quite nice. This despite the almost total blackout and censorship of the news.

But it is getting close to sunset and the student movement is doing their thing, actually moving around, trying to keep the authorities in check. What was a disorganized band of protesters without leaders has by now become a fairly organized movement, with strategies and plans. Last night they were surprised by the strength of the attack, tonight they will not be caught off guard. I saw preparations today, which I will not talk about here, which imply a level of organization not present even two days ago.

And at 4 PM sharp, the students began blocking the Francisco de Miranda Avenue, which last night became a rather violent place. More violent than at anytime in the 2003 strike, more violent than I have ever seen it.

Here were the students setting up at 4 PM:

The Government also knows there is more organization, as helicopters flew over Caracas until a few minutes ago as the sun set.

And today the Government formally announced the Sicad 2, foreign exchange market, creating a third official exchange rate, ignoring the history of all such systems in history everywhere in the world, all of which have ended badly. The more exchange rates there are (there are four if you include the unmentionable) the more in trouble country’s get into.

And Minister Ramirez said that the new “market” (The Government will fix the price) will start on the 24th., don’t believe it for a minute, this thing is as crude as you can imagine. But in the end it is a devaluation, as airline tickets will be paid at this rate (which I think will be south of Bs. 20, but near it). This is another victory of the radical-radicals over the radicals who wanted a floating permuta market.

For foreign companies who have no access to Sicad 1 or Cencoex, this is another devaluation. For prices, this si another push up, more inflation ahead, full speed Nicolas!

And now, I think the effects of the violence and the feeling of being in a Dictatorship prevail over the increasing economic chaos the country faces. The students will not leave the streets, the crisis will deepen and it all be Maduro’s fault. With bodes badly for him. Timing is hard to predict, but I can tell you I don’t believe for a minute Maduro will finish his term. And I don’t want to be too bold in my prediction and say it explicitly, but I think he is doomed if he follows the path of repression and using the armed “colectivos” with the military to repress. By May, add 100% inflation annualized to the mix and things really will be complicated for whomever is in Government.

Tough days ahead for Venezuela. Last night felt like a mixture of the Caracazo and 2003. It was only during those two periods that I have felt that the Government lost control of the situation. It can only get worse at this point, unless Maduro decides to back down.

But he does not appear to be ready to, but neither do the students.

It’s showdown time!

It was certainly a day to remember. Despite the Government banning the opposition march and prohibiting marches, Leopoldo Lopez turned himself in in a demonstration which was simply massive. His handover was perfectly choreographed, leaving images that have a highly emotional content and guaranteeing that this day, whatever may happen was a victory for the Voluntad Popular leader.

I mean, there are very few things missing from a picture like this one:

Lopez being pushed into the National Guard tank, white flowers in one hand, flag in the other and screaming at his supporters. Really, can it get any more dramatic than this?

And this was after Lopez had given a fiery speech to his supporters hanging on the statue of Jose Marti in Plaza Brion of Chacaito at the end of which his wife was lifted up by the crowd to say goodbye to him right before he turned himself in. How can anyone not be moved by this image?:

And it was Lopez who, from the inside of the military vehicle, used a megaphone to ask people to move aside to let the vehicle through. Lopez was calma calm and at times it seemed as if the guardsman taking him looked more scared than he did.

And the show of support was nationwide, as students organized protests in all major cities, all of them with huge crowds, all ending at the Palaces of Justice of each State with the students handing in their demands.

I went to the march, leaving somewhat late, but was surprised when a couple of Kilometers away from the march, the street was still full of people walking towards Chacaito. And when I got to Chacaito it became difficult to get through because it was so crowded. Once in the intersection with the main Country Club Avenue, I was surprised by the sea of people coming down from that direction. It turns out it was the people from the West of Caracas, who, because the march was not allowed beyond Chacaito, had to come via Libertador Avenue to where Lopez turned himself in. From there, we turned South towards Las Mercedes, went under the Autopista and then climbed back on it, only to find that the students had not only blocked it, but occupied it all the way to the Cienpies Distributor. There were people everywhere, in front, below, above. And there was lots of police and guardsman, but they they were clearly given the order to do nothing, despite our fears that we could be gassed any minute.

This is an overall picture from above, two blocks away from where Leopoldo Lopez turned himself in:

Here are some of my pictures as I walked along:

Towards Chacaito

Going down Las Mercedes, Autopista in front

Trying to get through in ChacaitoStudents sitting on the Autopista

Autopista towards the East, full of people

And I don’t want you to think this was a Caracas phenomenon, this was Valencia (where seven students have been shot)

And at this time, 7:37 PM , students are still out in the streets blocking the way

I am still surprised the Government went ahead and jailed Lopez. To accuse him of being a terrorist, when there are pictures showing that it was the Government’s intelligence police who shot the students on Feb. 12th. is somewhat dumb. By jailing him, not only does he become a martyr, elevating his stature within the opposition, but also creating another political prisoner and another reason for the students to fight.

Maduro also loses credibility, when it was him that suggested Lopez was responsible for the deaths of the students, not the Prosecutor, raising doubts, once again, abut the separation of powers in Venezuela. To make matters even worse, it was the Head of the National Assembly, Diodado Cabello, who took Lopez to his arraignment. What is Cabello doing there? He does not belong to any of the braches of Government that should be involved. The Government later said it was to protect Lopez’ life from the “right wing”, a silly excuse, more so, given that Lopez is also labelled as “right wing”.

Because while all this was going one, Maduro was holding his own march, despite his ban on demonstrations, where he said Lopez was being taken directly to jail (Ughh?) by helicopter, showing the President does not even understand legal procedures. In his speech, Maduro rambled, attaching President Piñera of Chile and Santos of Colombia, for involving themselves in Venezuelan affairs.

But more importantly, you just don’t go jail an opposition leader like Lopez on trumped up charges, without raising suspicions that this is simply autocracy at work. Lopez now becomes a hot potato for Maduro: Keep him in jail he becomes a symbol, release him, you look weak (and somewhat dumb!). He will actually be charged with murder, a silly charge if there ever was one.

Lopez seems to have scored a victory sooner than he thought when he started going out to try to gather the protests under his wing. Even Capriles went to the demonstration, as all opposition politicians showed up at the demonstration to show their support.

For now, the students remain on their own, a random band of disorganized protesters that have kept the Government in check for ten days. They will not go easily away and now they have one more prisoner to defend.

Here is an overview of the protest via a video: