The Devil's Excrement

Aerial picture of student tent camp in front of the UN office in Caracas (Thanks MD!)

One goes to Caracas and picks up so many stories, that when you return you don’t know where to start. But I thought I would lead up with the story of the students in front of the United Nations office in Caracas. In some sense it encompasses a number of stories of what is going on in Caracas in the protest movement an its relationship with the Maduro Government.

Essentially, a bunch of students (or not) have set up camp in front of the United Nations office which is in Avenida Francisco de Miranda in Los Palos Grandes. I may not like the #SOSVenezuela hashtag, but, as you can see in the picture above, they have focused on what the hell is the UN doing, or not, in Venezuela. But their reality, their plan is a bit more complicated than that.

The first day, the students set up maybe a couple of rows of tents. But, as you can see in the picture above, taken by a buddy from the building in front (Thanks MD!), by now they are up to four rows and growing.

It is very colorful as the picture below shows, but this is more than just a spur of the moment plan. I talked to the students last week, and their plan is much more complex than just sitting there.

Another great picture by MD (or is it TD ot TT?)

When you first talk to them,there are a number of surprises. First, they are not all from Caracas. Second, they are not middle class. Finally, they are not all students, as many of them are part of radical, left wing groups 8yes!, real left wing not imitation Chavistas!) which oppose the Government. So, for fools that claim that these protests are somehow motivated by the US, driven my middle class students, please come down and talk to them. You will be surprised, really surprised.

The second interesting aspect, is that the UN is just a way of focusing on something. They know that the UN will do not much more than make a statement or two. But they also know, that where they are, they should be safe, they are close to Altamira where they can go protest  every night and in a location where the protests can grow, as they have grown in the last week.

But more importantly, they think that Maduro is playing  a game of patience. They believe Maduro wants the students to get tired, wear out the opposition with repression and nightly fights, which, much like in 2002 in Plaza Altamira, will lead to the students or the opposition getting tired and giving up.

But they have no plans of giving up.

Their plan is to grow the camp, as long as it is livable. To make their presence a nuisance, but one that gets the approval of the neighbors. But it has to be livable and sustainable. They have received donations, they have  a couple of Porta Toilets, they cook for everyone, they organize protests. But more importantly, they rotate. The tents may have someone’s name on it, or State, but the truth is that they alternate. Each person has someone to occupy their place. The idea is to outlast the Government, to out-tire the National Guard or the Bolivarian Police. After all, nobody can say they are violent (even if they go help in Altamira) but if the Government were to decide to move them out, repress them, it would be the Government that would look bad.

For them, the UN territory, IS their territory for the time being.

And just to make a point, they have set up a sort of “museum” of the weapons of repression. The left overs from the National Guard attacks. This shows who is the violent one. Maduro asks for dialogue, but responds with violence and repression. While the students are just sitting there.

The students are more than just anti-Government. They are doing this, because the revolution has simply blocked their progress. They see most students finish their studies and either stay unemployed, start a business for which their studies are useless or simply, leave the country. Emigrate. And they think the revolution is to blame for this. Many of them come form poor families, but somehow they managed to get into the regional universities. And what they see is that their future is blocked by a Government that wants to dominate everything, including their families. So, they don’t want to put up with it. Better protest like this looking for change than waiting for a degree that will do nothing for their future.

And it is fun too. They organize activities, talk to friend meet friends. Hell, if you have nothing to do, why not go visit them? You will be around people your age, talking about like, the future and why they are doing it. I did that and it was lots of fun. Imagine being their age!

And they have activities all of the time. Last weekend they had a vigil with candles.It was  away to feel together, to have people join them. And who could not be moved by their sacrifice? After all, they are out there most of the time. Fighting in their own way for what they believe in.

If I was Maduro, I would not want to fight against the conviction and dedication these students show…

Note added in the morning the next day: Last night the students were attacked. I have heard different versions, the correct one seems to be they were attacked by someone in a truck an dnot by the National Guard with tear gas.

I am not sure if this was in response to that, or the students had planned to expand anyway. In fact, they seem to suggest they were going to expand when I talked to them Saturday. Maybe the idea is to peacefully challenge the Government right in front the UN’s nose. Stay tuned..

The camp this morning as it expanded to the street:

(Thanks DA)

Cartoon by Rayma

Today’s spectacle at the Organization of American States was truly shameful for anyone that believes in free speech and the basic rights of people. The Government of Panama had graciously given up its representation to have opposition’s Maria Corina Machado to speak at the OAS in representation of the opposition, to present the case of the repression and the lack of democratic rights that Venezuelans face today.

And instead of accepting that fact, this club that seems to represent the so called “leaders” of Latin American and the Caribbean, proceeded to vote on whether Machado’s speech should be made in a public or in a private forum.  In the end, 22 countries voted against the public forum and only 11 voted in favor.

Ironic and depressing that in order to listen to charges of censorship and repression, the representatives of these so called “democracies” had to start by protecting the repressor, Dictator Nicolas Maduro, violating not only the Charter of the OAS, but Ms. Machado’s rights and that of the opposition to be heard in a forum which is supposed to be there to defend the basic rights of people across the Americas.

And while I can understand the strong dependency of the weak Caribbean economies on the stupid (or is it?) largesse of the even more stupid revolution, I was most disappointed at how so many of these Latin American countries were ready to prostitute themselves in order to protect their mercantile interests. It is remarkable how low these mostly leftists Governments have fallen. Despite being democratically elected, they were not willing to give a voice to the over 50% of Venezuelans that find themselves discriminated against and repressed by the Maduro Dictatorship.

And in doing so, they are trying to defend the most repressive Government, save for Cuba, to have risen in the region in the last two decades. How these representatives and their Governments can sleep at night is beyond me, more so when some of them were victims of similar repression in the past.

But somehow they are short sighted enough in thinking that this will not happen again in their countries and that their commercial interests are being protected by their unethical actions. Both premises are actually wrong. As the world turns, their countries may swing back to repression and they may need the same type of solidarity Venezuela’ opposition deserves today. But more importantly, their belief that their actions in support of the Maduro Dictatorship will somehow lead to payment of Venezuela’s debts with their countries or companies is simply wrong. As stated by Minister Ramirez or the President of the Central Bank, Nelson Merentes, there is no money to pay anything but the foreign currency budget they have established for the year 2014.

So, forget it! You will not collect under Dictator Maduro. In fact, you would probably have a better chance under a change in Government that would put order in the economy and reduce some of the absurd subsidies present in the Venezuelan economy. Only in this case, could Venezuela receive loans and cut subsidies which would, with very strict management, allow it to pay its debts with these countries, that so easily supported what can not be supported under any moral framework.

But in the end, these mediocre diplomats really blew it. For one thing, Machado’s visit captured even more attention by the refusal to receive her publicly. CNN would not have interviewed her as prominently as they did today. And via that press conference and the distribution of the video she meant to show at the OAS, Machado has made her point and is likely to make it even stronger in the upcoming days.

Here is the video she meant to show to these diplomats who think the world is static:

And it was pitiful to see Brasil’s representative justifying the ¡e private session because of Machado’s “circus”. A circus composed of herself, an elected Deputy of the Venezuelan National Assembly who is likely to have her immunity lifted and jailed upon her return, a student representing the more than 1,600 students jailed so far in one month of protests and a mother. A mother whose daughter was killed by the repressive forces of the Maduro Dictatorship. A mother who is still grieving but thought and believed she would find compassion and understanding in a forum that under normal circumstances is supposed to defend the rights of the people of the Americas.

Instead, she was laughed at and labeled a “circus”. Brasil’s leaders are not as close to God as they may erroneously think.

And this grieving mother was not even allowed to speak and was forcibly removed from the press room of the OAS.

Does it get more shameful and depressing than that?

And while Brasil has proven that it does not have the moral stature to call itself a leader of the region, others have shown to have more dignity, morals and leadership. Starting with Panama, who gave Machado the chance to speak, even if she was silenced by the OAS, using the same censorship techniques that the Maduro Government has so effectively used. And following with these countries:

Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
USA
Guatemala
Honduras
México
Paraguay
Perú

who seem to understand that one day, they may face the same situation and they would like the same support they gave today to the Venezuelan opposition. I want to thank all of them for their respect of human rights and for their transparent behavior, even if they face the same commercial problems in their interactions with the Venezuelan Government.

Most of the Mercosur countries showed that the letter of their charter is worthless as democracy is simply irrelevant, as had been shown previously in their eagerness and perverted acceptance of Venezuelan into their club of undesirables. But they ratify it today. They could care less. So do we.

To us, they simply show how corrupt, unprincipled  and unethical they are.

Let them be punished and judged by history and by their people!

A lot of people argue that these protests are too early. That the barrios are not participating. That the people still support the Government widely and many other such arguments. While there is evidence to counteract each of these claims, I think they try to oversimplify the problem. In the end, the “barrios” are not where the opposition is weak, it is in the very rural states, where the people have a very high dependence on the Government. These are the true Chavista strongholds, where the media is fully dominated by the Government and the opposition gets less than 40% of the vote in any given election. In the barrios of the big cities, the 2013 Presidential elections tended to be closer, with the opposition scoring wins in many.

At the same time, anyone that has talked to the students in these protests, can see that they come from all over the place. In fact, in my conversations in Plaza Altamira when I was there three weeks ago, I found a very large fraction (I would say one out of every two) of the students came from poor neighborhoods.

But the argument continues from the Cassandras that see Chavismo as impossible to dislodge, too popular and too ingrained in the Venezuelan population.

This, of course, goes against logic: Maduro barely squeaked by a year ago (if he did, which I am still not sure happened) and since he took over, inflation has doubled and scarcity has gone up by almost a factor of three (Datanalisis says it is at 47.7%). I just don’t think people are that insensitive to their problems.

And yes, Maduro did recover for the regional elections thanks to the Cadakazo, but conditions have worsened significantly since.

But we (and the Government!) all should take notice of the latest poll by Datos, a well respected polling firm, a copy of which someone sent me and which shows that the Government’s approval, popularity and acceptance has deteriorated dramatically. In fact, I would even say it has deteriorated more than I expected and in some aspects, the result surprise me.

Let’s start with the basics. According to the poll, 43.7% consider themselves to be opposition, while only 27.1% consider themselves to be pro-Government. In the lowest strata of the population, Class E, 36.4% of the people see themselves as pro-opposition, while it is only 32.5% who consider themselves to be pro-Government. (The same number is 62.4% and 18.2% in classes A,B and C). So much for the opposition not resonating or penetrating in the poorer strata of the population.

When people are asked if they things as being fine or not, basically the hard core pro-Government 27.2% of those asked, say things are fine (Define as being well, or more or less well), while 72% think hings are going bad or not very well.

Enough to make any Government nervous…

But where things really get surprising in my opinion, is on questions that should make Maduro and his cronies truly nervous. Like 46.4% of the people think Venezuela is a Dictatorship, while only 42.5% think it is a democracy, for example.

Or that 50.4% think Maduro is doing a negative job, 23.6% think it is positive and 21.3% think it is neither positive nor negative.

And if this were not enough to make any Government official very nervous, 66.1% of the people think dollar scarcity is the Government’s fault, while only 3.1% of those polled think it is the private sectors fault. And 53% of the people think scarcity is Maduro’s fault, while only 14.4% think it is the private sector’s fault. And 51% blame the Government for inflation, while only 8.6% thinking it is the private sector’s fault. Amazingly, despite these numbers, 46.5% still think the Government can solve the country’s problems, while 47.1%, don’t think so.

Finally, 61% of those polled think that the Government’s reactions to the protests has been disproportionate and a mistake, while only 29.5%think it has been correct or adequate. Moreover, when it comes to how many people think the Government has to rectify its policies, 87% of those polled think they have to.

To me, these numbers say the Government is in real trouble. They show that Chavismo sin Chávez is a flimsy proposition. If these were the numbers up to March 2nd. , I suspect they are much worse now and what the Government has been doing goes counter to what those polled suggest. Polls are inaccurate, but I saw Datos’ polls before the Cadakazo and afterwards and I can assure you they gauged well what happened.

If I were the Maduro Government, this poll would make me very nervous indeed!

Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez in jail

It has been four weeks since the first San Cristobal protests that ignited the current wave of repression. Some people are still trying to understand what is happening, why it is happening and where it will end. I have no answer to where this will all go, but I do think I understand parts of what took us to where we are.

The current wave of protests began in Tachira State, as understood well by Girish Gupta in his article in The New Yorker, the people of Tachira are among those hurt the most by shortages in Venezuela, add to that a student protest, some jailed students taken to another State, which is illegal, and you had the necessary sparks to get this thing going.

But this wasn’t enough. You have to add to the combination tha,t coincidentally, that same week, Leopoldo Lopez and Maria Corina Machado,  both called for protests under the slogan “La Salida” (The Exit), something which many thought was a bit too radical and a bit too much at the time. Combine that with a march where two people are killed and have the  Government blame and even jail Leopoldo Lopez for the violence that day. and you have the perfect combination for the flare up of protests we have seen in the last two weeks.

I mean, look at it. The Government could have defused the whole situation at many points in time. In fact, it even accused policemen of causing the deaths in the violent march that Lopez was accused for. What a perfect excuse to reduce tensions, release Lopez, send some jailed students home and give the Government some working space. Instead, Maduro does exactly the opposite: Lopez remains in jail, more than 1,000 students jailed, 60 accusations of torture, 20 dead and Maduro on nationwide TV calls on his paramilitary groups, the infamous “colectivos” and go and repress the opposition.

Which they have done in earnest since two nights ago.

And I could choose many pictures or videos, but here is one with some repression which makes me ashamed of being a Venezuelan:

And I ask the same questions I have asked before: What is Maduro’s strategy? Why hasn’t he defused the conflict? Is he so afraid of Lopez? Why more repression, which begets even more protests? Why provoke the paramilitary “colectivos” into a civil war?

The answer is I don’t know, because what is coming in terms of shortages in April and May is so much worse than the current official “you can’t find one of three items in the supermarkets”. And I really don’t see how you can blame the opposition this time around.

Remember Sicad 2? Well, Venezuela remains Sicad 2-less two weeks after it was first announced it would start operating and I am willing to take bets on the fact that despite Ramirez’ claim today, Monday will come and go and nothing will have happened, unless they fake it. Not only do we not have a Foreign Exchange Agreement, we do not have regulations as to how this new market will work. Maduro has been improvising for eleven months as President.

Call me skeptical, once again.

But going back to where the Government wants to go, it is  a very dangerous game. The next step is that beyond “Guarimbas”, where neighbors protest by blocking each others way, just because they want and they can, by now people are tired of the repression and being repressed. Today two people died, none of them students, one a National Guardsman and another a “Moto taxi” driver, which could or not be a euphemism for a a member of a paramilitary  “colectivo”. I just don’t know.

What I know is that people are fed up with the repression and they are ready to attack back. And it could get ugly. Guaicaipuro Lameda, a retired General and former Chávez Minister,  makes the point today that conditions are the same as those that preceded the 1989 infamous Caracazo, which Chávez used in part to become famous. And they are very similar. The “people” perceive a Government that is not only not providing basic necessities, but is showing that it is far and removed from the people. People forget Carlos Andres Perez was elected with 56% of the vote a month before the Caracazo. That is how fickle Venezuelans can be.

And yes, the Caracazo was mostly about looting, but that was once it got beyond control. Before that, it was protests. Protests about unfulfilled promises. Protests about frustrations. About crime, about inflation. There were no shortages. And repression only got out of hand once the protests were out of control. Are we there yet?

And we are certainly close to it, based on what people experienced today in Los Ruices, where coincidentally the death of the National Guardsman and the moto-taxista took place. The people of Los Ruices are tired of it. tired of Colectivos, Tired of guardsmen, tired of tear gas and tired of being repressed day after day for protesting.

And it all goes back to San Cristobal. The whole city is up in arms, such that the Governor had to come out and say he disagreed with the violence and the jet planes flying overhead as a threat (he backed down a bit, but he wants to be considered to replace Maduro). San Cristobal is not middle class and the National guard seems afraid of people by now. Neither is El Guarataro, nor is Caricuao, nor is Petare or Las Minas.

But instead of backing down, Maduro presses forward. He lost his international prestige as a Democrat? Insult the Panaminian President Martinelli. Which shows he what he thinks about Panama.

And Ramirez came back saying the Chinese and Russians will lend the Government money. I just doubt it. Not now, least of all under this conditions. I mean, the Chinese are so conservative with their money that they keep it mostly in US Treasury Bills. They are not going to lend to a shaky Government with a nebbish leader. What if the Government after it decides to place the Chinese at the back of the line?

And they should. They should wait with the Brazilian and Argentinean “alcahuetas” in the back of the line.  After all, the Venezuelan private sector should be paid first, no? It is crucial for the future, despite what Maduro and his cohorts may think today. And between the Panaminians and the Chinese, the choice seems quite clear.

As for the Cubans, the problem is that most will want to stay here, rather than go back. They think Venezuela is savage capitalism, where you can live off remarkable opportunities for arbitrage and where corruption is rampant.

Another reason why this incapable revolution has to be eradicated from the land of Venezuelans.

The question remains: What is Maduro after? Suspend constitutional guarantees before the real shortages begin? Blame the opposition for those upcoming shortages?

It could be, but somehow, it seems as if the people of Venezuela are beyond those tricks. Which is why I see more violence, almost civil war-levels ahead. Until the Government makes a mistake. The opposition can make many, but they are not in charge and they are not armed. But any use of excessive force by an aggressive and well armed Government, could simply be the beginning of its end.

And that seems to be where the Government is taking us.