The Devil's Excrement

Yesterday I saw a tweet that I knew was wrong stating that American Airlines had stopped selling tickets in both local currency and dollars, which sort of implied the airline was leaving Venezuela. I knew the tweet was wrong, as that same morning both my travel agent in Caracas and American Airlines in the US had called me to tell me that the airline had opened for sale tickets in US$ until the end of July. I checked in the website and indeed, for the day I was looking for a CCS-MIA flight in July, there was plenty of available flights and tickets, as promised, if you paid in US$. Thus, when I saw the tweet with information that I knew to be wrong I corrected it, mostly because I know the sense of anguish that many people with relatives abroad feel thinking that they may become isolated in Venezuela if the airlines leave.

What I got in return was tweets saying that I was  a minority with a credit card in US$, that I worked with the stock market, Cadivi rules and the like and beware about bond prices when American announces that is leaving Venezuela, which had nothing to do with my correction. Later the person apologized, but I think this demonstrates how charged and emotional this topic is.

But it also shows, how somehow people think that the Government is not paying airlines because it does not care, or, as some have suggested, this is all being done on purpose to isolate the country. People also blame the airlines for abusing the system. But the reality is much different, the airlines have been naive in thinking they would be paid eventually. And Venezuelans have yet to face the reality that, much like Greeks three years ago, the time is coming to pay for the errors of the Government of the past few years. The cheap travel, the Cadivi subsidies, all subsidies, have to be paid down the line with expensive travel costs and no subsidies. There is simply no money to pay the airlines.

Or the pharmaceutical companies, or the food companies, or the oil service companies…

Perhaps no headline describes this more clearly than that of the President of the Venezuelan Airline Association (ALAV) saying “The debt with the airlines is more than the operating international reserves of the country”

That simple statement summarizes the problem quite clearly, how can the Government pay its debts, when all of its operating (Not liquid, operating!) international reserves are not enough to pay the debt with the airlines?

But think about it, the Government also owes the pharmaceutical sector US$ 4 billion, and more billions here and there. And the days go by and it does not pay any of it (The debts actually increase). Why? Because there is no money to pay the debts. In fact, CADIVI approvals, which pay for current and future imports, were also sharply down in the first four months of the year.

The Government keeps trying to stretch it. But at some point, it will have to do something about it. It will have to stop subsides to Petrocaribe and Cuba, or not pay external debt, or devalue, or increase the price of gas, or some of the above or all of the above. But no matter which solution is decided on, it will be Venezuelans that will have to pay in the future for the errors of their Government. Someone has to pay the subsidies and the excesses and it will be all of Venezuelans, whether by paying much higher prices for everything, including flights abroad, or not having goods to purchase or reducing their purchasing power. It is a sad prospect, but it is reality.

Ask the Greeks, they lived through it three years ago, after years of living it up beyond their means.

And, of course, people worry about not being able to travel, but think of the horrors that people go through because they can not find pharmaceutical products to treat cancer, or diabetes or even simple antibiotics for infections. Or think about not having parts for diagnostic machines.

And if the Government is not paying either of them, it is because it does not have the money for either of them. Period. It is not even trying to choose one sector over the other, it is paying none of the debts. In fact, this week PDVSA announced with “bombos y platillos” (drum rolls and cymbals) lines of credit with three oil service companies. These are really no new lines of credit, they are simply converting the money PDVSA already owes these companies into formal lines of credit, so as not to affect the balance sheets of these companies that are owed money.

And the longer the Government tries to stretch it, the worse it will be in the end. The numbers just don’t add up. Unfortunately, the future is bleak for Venezuelans, unless oil dramatically jumps up. Oil has saved the day before, but this looks unlikely at this time.

Adjust accordingly.

For two and a half months, the Venezuelan Government had been extremely careful with the students and their protests. While it was aggressive and repressive at attacking those protesting in the streets, it had been respectful of the student camps set up in various parts of Caracas and other cities. The strategy by the students had been clever, they could not be accused of being violent, while camping near where many of the protests were taking place, allowing them to “feed” into the protests and retreat back to the camps when required. Moreover, the camps were in front of the United Nations in one case and near the OAS in the other. It seemed improbable that a Government involved in an internationally mediated dialogue would attack the camps. It would simply damage the image of the Government and tell the world what an outlaw Government Maduro’s has become.

Except it did not work out that way. Instead, the Government or someone decided to attack and raid the student’s camps. And the raids had many surprises:

-It was a military operation led by the Minister of the Interior Rodriguez Torres.

-It was an illegal raid, as the Prosecutors office was not only not informed, but had no representatives present at the raid, as required by law.

-The military raid arrested everyone in the camps, those sleeping on the streets and/or the sidewalks, with no legal justification for those that were simply protesting, without blocking the way, as guaranteed by the Constitution.

-Students were held incommunicado for longer than twenty four hours, without the Government releasing their names, allowing them calls or legal representation while they were mostly accused as a group, without being individually charged.

-The students were all subjected to drug tests, without any legal reason for it. In fact, only a small number were found to have traces of drugs.

-Minister Rodriguez Torres, who acted as prosecutor, policeman, investigator and judge in the operation, accused the students of being armed, despite them not using weapons once, including the night of the raid. Contrast this with the paramilitary groups who support the Government are usually seen publicly with their weapons.

-Most students were eventually released, those that were kept in prison were simply accused of “leading” the protests via intelligence evidence gathered prior to the raid. There is nothing illegal about being a leader of a protest.

While all of this is going on, Maduro keeps trying to talk dialogue, while Diosdado Cabello makes wild accusations against opposition figures, many of which are members of human rights ONG’s or are involved in the dialogue process.

So, can anyone understand what is going on here?

Well, I am not sure I can and that is why I have been silent on the whole process for so long, because the change in strategy not only took me by surprise, but I truly did not believe the Government would go and frontally attack the students like it did.

The question is whether the Government changed its thinking and decided on a new strategy, or whether this was an individual act by Rodriguez Torres. Or whether there is agreement on which strategy to follow.

My interpretation is that this was not a unified strategy, but that Rodriguez Torres acted on his own, after many discussions not leading to anything within the Government.

The camps had actually been quite successful. Within the Government there were, and are, large divergences on to how to handle them. Not doing anything was to many simply a sign of weakness. Doing something was an act of future intimidation to others, which was badly needed. While Maduro favors the dialogue that he agreed to internationally, he also believes that intimidating the opposition is the way to go, while Diosdado does not believe in the dialogue at all.

Thus, Rodriguez Torres acted on his own or tried not to involve Maduro in the whole operation as a way of having the President save face, and his image, while at the same time acting in the intimidating fashion that he had always favored. As the leading enforcer of the Dictatorship, Rodriguez Torres cares little about appearances, as his raid clearly demonstrated, while defending the empty revolution is all he cares about.

Meanwhile Maduro can welcome the Foreign Ministers arriving on Thursday and argue that he was unaware of the plan as there had been no agreement on strategy, but the protests had created an untenable position for him.

Of course,the raid and the way in which it was carried out completely (and finally!) destroys the image that Chavismo has tried to build and defend over the years of a democratic Government, respectful of the rights of others, while twisting and perverting the laws and its interpretations to have its way. To the UN, it was an unexpected slap in the face. And now Maduro will try to blame the break in the dialogue to the intolerant opposition, something that the Unasur mediators are unlikely to buy, but Chavismo believes that it can sell anything to what they think are the naive Foreign Ministers of Unasur. (After all, they have so far)

Unfortunately, this bodes badly for the Venezuelan opposition, whether students, MUD, anti-MUD, pro-Salida or whatever. Rodriguez Torres stepped over the line and got away with it. Next time he will push further. And the one after that even further.

Dictatorships are like that. They push the line and then they push it again, until they find themselves at a point where human rights abuses and appearances are simply irrelevant. Where the important thing is, as Rodriguez Torres said, the survival of the Bolivarian revolution, however failed it may be. And if next time it requires jailing dozens of opposition politicians, so be it. Or killing a few dozen protesters. Oh well! they were being too violent. An explanation will be found and we don’t care if you don’t believe us, we are a sovereign country.

There are too many games being played at once within Chavismo, that of appearing as a Democratic Government respectful of others, is simply no longer a priority. Human rights are simply not a priority for the revolution. Not even the appearance of respect for them. Neither are the students, the universities or the young.

You have been warned!