The Devil's Excrement

I continue to puzzle at the SARS epidemic. Here is the updated plot I of what I posted on April 4th. Two weeks have gone by and now the number of deaths has accelerated but the number of cases continues to grow lineraly, not much like a classical epidemic. It appears to me that either the measures to stop its spread are outstanding or that this is being blown out of proportion. 3,500 cases in six weeks does not seem to be that earth shaking and the death rate is so far about 5%. At this rate of infection in one year there will be roughly 24,000 cases if you extrapolate the current infection slope. The number of deaths would be 1,200 if it follows the current slope but the death rate is definitely accelerating.

Note added: This graph updates automatically from the WHO data, it now looks like the number of cases is also beginning to accelerate……

Rep. Charles Rangel, a Democrat from New York, is quoted in the New York Times as saying:

“This about ends that discussion, I don’t know how far they are going to go, but they know how to support their enemies and get rid of their friends.”

Enemies? Friends? How naive can this guy be? Fidel Castro has never had any friends. The few he had, he killed or expelled from Cuba. Killing people like this is not new to castro. Does Rangel know how many people Castro killed his first day in Havana? And they were exactly the politicians that would make life hard for him. Does Rangel really think that Dictators change? Or that Castro will somehow be converted into respecting people’s human rights when he has not given a damn for 44 years. Moreover, these people are not Castro’s enemies for no reason, they oppose Castro, precisely because of what Castro has done in the last four decades. Somebody should tell Mr. Rangel about the Los Pinos jail, to see if he still feels like being a friend of Castro afterwards. Wake up Mr Rangel!

Note added: I tremble when I read this article in which Fidel Castro expresses his happiness at being a witness to what is happening in Venezuela today. Mr. Rangel should worry too.

I received the following e-mail a couple of days ago:

 You are using our image with out permission on your website.  We have a
 $2,000.00 copyright infringement fee that is automatic when you violate
 our copyrights!  Please give me your mailing address so I can send you
 the bill.  Once you pay the bill you can continue to use our photo on
 your website for the rest of this year, but as it stands, its been up
 for quite a while now.  Please send me your updated mailing address or
 we can find that with our lawyers.  If we need to hire our lawyers to
 collect this fee its going to be much more then the $2,000.00 (in order
 to pay the lawyers).   Your choice.
 
 Sincerely,
 
 Jimmy Dorantes
 Director and CEO of Latin Focus ((c)L.F.)

I obviously did not like it. In particular the tone was not only not very nice, but it also sounded almost like a scam, maybe you send thousands like this and some people will actually send the money in. A second reason was the fact that it did not even mention the image that I had used. Third, what is this “automatic copyright infringement fee”?.

So I replied and an answer came back pointing to an approximate location where this image was. It turns out I was not “using” the image; I was linking to their image on their website. The image itself indicated that they had a copyright on it. Thus, I was being threatened for linking. After a little research I have discovered a number of things:

–Linking is considered to be legal as no case has said that direct linking to the source is illegal. This reference is perhaps the most complete I found to the issue and within my limited understanding it appears to conclude that  it is legal  “because the linking party is not doing anything that seems to involve a direct manipulation of the copyrighted materials at all” . In fact, the ACLU has aided in cases against linking because it considers it to be part of free speech. So, I could probably get free legal counsel.

-In one case linking was declared illegal if you linked to what was considered an illegal copy of the software to decode DVD’s. Similarly, some organizations have asked people to remove hyperlinks to illegal sites or illegally copied material, such as the case of a terrorist site and the University of California in San Diego.

-There is one case in Denmark where a Court ruled the practice of “Deep linking” illegal. The decision basically said you could link to the main page of a site but not specific items. I remembered that I still have a bank account in Denmark, from the time I was a visiting Prof. there in the eighties. Last I saw it had five bucks in it, so I guess they could sue me there.

-It is also interesting to consider the fact that my website is not for profit. I do not even have a Pay Pal link. Maybe I could declare The Devil’s Excrement under Chapter 11. In fact, if you say my time does not count, I am down forty bucks with this site so far. Well spent, but I certainly have not profited in any way from the linking to the image. Even if I had, I wonder if I could argue that I would only have to pay them the fraction of clicks on the link to their site divided by all the clicks ever made to my site. Given that it is not the most visited part of my website, it would be a miniscule amount anyway, even if mine was a well-visited, for profit site.

-I also found opinions on the web that if someone does not want his/her site linked it, it should say it on the home page explicitly and prominently. However, others disagree on this and this site has the policies of some companies. In any case, the only warning in the Latin Focus page (home page under warnings, no deep linking involved) is, as of today:

No images may used for other websites or published in any way, medium or media without written permission and appropriate fees paid to Latin Focus for each use

Notice it says you can’t use it in your website, but it does not say you should not link to their site.

-Prof. David Dorkin has a web site about the topic and I love this quote from him: “Linking policies demonstrate ignorance”

-There are other interesting possibilities. Venezuela has exchange controls, not a single dollar has been given out for essential imports in the last 80 days by the Government. Even if I lost the suit, how could I pay them? How much will the money at the official rate be worth by the end of the process? Will they sue here? Do they know the justice system does not work here? Ummm…..maybe I could get Daintily Dirty to send them a pair of panties and that will settle it……

I simply can’t believe this quote:

“France, like every democracy, is rejoicing over the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, and hopes for a quick and effective end to the battle.”

if Jacques Chirac can say that now, he is more of a cynic than I ever believed possible.

It would appear at this time from the SARS plot I posted the other day (It does update!) that while the number  of reported SARS cases is still growing linearly, the growth in the number of deaths is definitely accelearting. This could be simply an artifact of the reporting system, but there is a break in the slope.

Some black humor on the U.N. by Instapundit:

1,000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN MURDERED IN THE CONGO. But the United Nations is on the job:

The United Nations has sent a team to the area to investigate the reported massacre.

Well, we don’t have to worry, then.

Trying to figure out if this paper wants to make sure it gets the story right, look at the evolving headlines:

April 1: Arabs find shine in Saddam’s fading star

April 5: Arab media accept Iraq is crumbling

April 7: Defeats dismay Arab media

I particularly found this quotes surprising:

“Why is he letting the Arabs down now,” a Lebanese caller asked a phone-in programme, “when his forces fought so bravely in the south of the country?” or

But other Arab papers adopt a more realistic line, with al-Watan in Saudi Arabia declaring that “the Americans have taken the airport and the Iraqis have retreated into Baghdad”. and

The information war is intensifying,” said al-Sharq in Qatar. In Jordan, al-Rai asked “where the real truth lies amid the confusion and contradiction of the news reports?” Nevertheless, on its front page the paper’s main headline read: “Iraq retakes Saddam airport.”

Seems like the paper and the writers are just hedging their bets as if they did not know who is telling the truth. Or maybe they simply don’t want to offend their Arab readers. Who knows?

I guess bloggers are simply more opinionated like The Bleat:

Passed the TV this morning, and heard an Arabic-accented voice passionately denouncing the war. He was Western in appearance, telegenic, articulate, and he described the Iraq War as a “catastrophe” for the entire Arab world. I stuck around to see what he meant – catastrophic in the sense that another series of illusions were being destroyed before their very eyes? Allah will help them! But Allah has declined the invitation. The Americans will never fight a ground war! But there they are, on the ground, more methodical and efficient than one could have ever imagined, and they are losing one soldier for every 1000 Iraqis they kill. The combination of training, technology, dedication and lethality is worse than the Arab world could have possibly imagined – and the soldiers’ primary motivation is getting the job done well so everyone can go home. Imagine what they would do if they were truly, deeply pissed.

The lesson of Mogadishu: don’t draw any lessons from Mogadishu.

The guest, it turned out, was the ambassador from Syria, a nation whose bootheel has been pressed against the Lebanese jugular for how many years now?

The ambivalence of the horrors of war, is compensanted by seeing the horror of torture or the horrors of chemical weapons which reminds us that this is the same Dictator that gassed a whole Kurdish town with chemicals, killing everyone and giving rise to the infamous name “Chemical Ali”.

Took this pretty picture a while back, anyone have any idea what that pattern in the sky is?

Perma-Bear economist Stephen Roach from Morgan Stanley, is predicting a Global recession this year, blaming SARS as an important part of it. Well, somehow I just can’t see yet SARS being such an important factor given this graph using data from the World Health Organization (WHO):

it seems to me that the number of cases continues to grow linearly, the discontinuos jump being an artifact of the Chinese reporting a number of earlier cases at the end of March. Note the slope appear to be both the same as well as linear below and above the discontinuos jump. Typically epidemics spread exponentially in their initial stages, so unless Mr. Roach knows something I don’t, I just don’t buy it. (I think (hope?) this graph will update automatically as Paul Kedrosky, its author, updates it)