The Devil's Excrement

And finally we come to the last and perhaps most disturbing graph of this oil series: PDVSA’s gas production As you can see there has been an increase in production which took place in 2004 (red line). However, the net production (blue line), that is the production of gas, minus gas reinjected (orange line) back into wells is still down compared to 2001 levels. This is because after being steady near 1.9 trillion cubic feet for years, reinjected gas has been increasing sharply. In 2004, the increase was almost 50% over 2001. What is disturbing about this is that the reinjection, most of which takes place in Eastern Venezuela is simply a means for obtaining more production. Since Eastern production (previous graph) is still below 2001 levels, this means that they are reinjecting gas to force oil out faster than it should be. This damages reservoirs and implies shorter lifetimes for them. This is being done simply as a way of increasing production, without caring about long term effects.

Looking at the country’s oil production, one can also get regional data from the latest PDVSA report, as shown below. As you can see, PDVSA’s production from both the Western part of the nation (Zulia) and the southern part (Barinas Apure) is still down significantly from the levels of 2001, with Zulia Basin production down 330,000 barrels a day and Barinas Apure by some 20,000 barrels a day. In Zulia, where most of the oil is light, the problem is that most wells are old and need investment to keep production up, which PDVSA has not done. In the Eastern part of the Nation, production has been recovered but as we will see in a future graph, there is a very high cost that will be paid some day, due to the irresponsibility of the Roja, Rojita leaders who talk about sovereignty out of their mouths, while destroying it with their actions.

Production of crude oil in thousands of barrels in the three different regions of the country for the last five years.

And here is the graph showing PDVSA’s Heavy, medium and light oil production. As you can see the country lost almost half a million barrels of production of the highest quality oil (the one with the highest margins too) the country has under the roja, rojita administration. I guess it is a strange concept of sovereignty this revolution has. .

The chart plots oil production by PDVSA for each caetgory of oil produced. The red line is light crude, the blue is medium crudes and the orange is heavy crudes.

The great debate about how much oil was Venezuela producing arose because in let’s say 2000, the country was producing 3.1 million barrels of oil a day and after the strike the Government began saying it was already back up to that level. Data was however hard to come by and PDVSA would deny that the IEA and OPEC numbers, saying Venezuela was not producing that much were right. On top of that up to last week, PDVSA had not submitted financials to the SEC. It finally did last week for the 2004 financials, only a year and half late under the new rojo, rojito inefficient management. The filings include oil production which is not audited, but there are criminal penalties if false information is given. Below I plot oil production figures from 2000 to 2004.

As you can see, in 2000 and 2001, crude oil production was at the 3.1 million levels, if you added liquid petroleum gas it would go up by 50,000 barrels and if you added natural gas, it would reach 4 million barrels, which is shown as total hydrocarbons in the figure. Problem is, crude oil production never includes natural gas, which on top of that is measured in cubic feet and not barrels. Thus, it should not be included in total production. As you can see in the figure, PDVSA’s crude oil production in 2004 was only at 2.73 million barrels a day, half a million barrels below what PDVSA was saying. Even adding heavy crudes produced by others it does not reach 3 million. And if people want to include natural gas, then the benchmark should be 4 million and not 3.1 million. The graph clearly shows how the country has lost production capability. Later I will show this has happened in the most expensive types of crudes.

I like charts and graphs. I will start an erratic (in time!) series of charts which tell a self-explanatory story about what is going on in Venezuela under the revolution. I start with this fairly simple one: Twelve month Food and Beverage inflation for each of the last twenty four months. Simply note that 56% of the items in this category fall under the regulated category and that the lowest srata of the population spend 80%-plus of their income on food.

Source: Venezuelan Central Bank

YB send me three aerial views from the avalancha today, you can see that things were jam packed way past the Mariperez elevado. I was in the area in the middle picture, right up front near the stage, where it was hard to move even a few feet. In fact, we had a couple of people faint and it was a mess to move them, they had to be essentially lifted completely above everyone’s head in order to move them to where the paramedics were.

Buses! Yes, there were buses, but at Chavez’ rally in early September we counted close to 900 buses in various pictures, there was nothing on that scale here. Not even close. I find it funny that Chavistas may now find the same tactics “morally outraegous” after their buddy using them for eigth years and they have said nothing. In fact, I have never heard a PSF dissaprove of it. Yes, there were buses, I talked to a couple of girls from COPEI Valencia and their party (still exists!) rented a bus to come.But they did not pay for it with Givernment money and there were certainly more people that came on their own than that. In fact, look at the Ave. Bolivar rally and if you multiply 900 buses by 50 people each, the number is larger than the estimate of how many people were there.

Look at the density of people in the second picture and comprare that with what the VTV showed. Read Alek’s post on this subject. And it is dense all the way beyond the elevado. My pictures show that it was dense at the peak all the way up to Avenida Las Acacias. More on that later, with a comparison of Chavez rally and today’s. Just remember, we never saw aerial pictures from this high up for Chavez’ rally. And guess what? It is the Government that takes these pictures from the intelligence police helicopters! How come they only released low angle picture for Chavez’ rally?

Lady with fancy hairdo just for march. Huge 26 million sign.          Girl from Merida with “I dare for our future” sign

This guy has the plane for Chavez to go to Cuba. Maracuchos in full force.               This peopl marched in an old opwn bus

Graffiti in Ave. Libertador                            Dancing in the streets                               Trying to get up close

Dare to vote!                              Lady selling dolls                                        Providing some rhytm for the march

Look back as I arribed                            Look forwards as I arrived                      Under the red stripe of the 400 meter flag

Primero Justicia was all over.                    This guys really got into it                             Intelligene police helicopter watched us all day

She was almost praying                             He kept the two signs up all the time               Maracaibo 15 entertained us

Motorcyclists with Rosales                      Back view past the elevado                          On the elevado after speech

PJ baloon                                              Flasg, Flags, Flags                                        Rosales during speech

I spent sometime under the red stripe of the huge flag, it cut the sun for a while, it was hot anyway

 Copeyanos came out of the closet.              Primero Justicia contingent all over the place

What can I say? Great avalanche today, people pouring out to see Rosales. It was hot, but it was exciting, lots of people everywhere. Rosales greeted us saying “que molleja is this rally!” a typical maracucho saying which refers to something big, grand!

And it was. I tried to get as close to the front as I could and it reached a point that was claustrophobic, you could not move in any direction, I only got to about ten or fifteen rows deep. Very thrilling and exhausting, I think I am dehydrated but wanted to post this quickly. People were happy, excited, friendly. Lots of young people, Rosales gave an outline of what he will do.

Rosales greeting the crowd as he first arrived, his wife and baby are on his left, daughetr on the right. The picture on the right was taken while Rosales was still speaking from the “elevado” that is under the road that goes to Mariperez

Overview of the stand where Rosales spoke from. I had troubles taking that picture without lots of flags blocking the view. Right overview from the TV stand right at the front looking back. It was jammed.

I have placed some pictures here, no comments for now, will post more pics as I process them, comments when after a little rest.

This guy had guts, marching all the way with a bad leg. Poster: Chavez: When the hell are you going to work?

Two overviews: At the overpass, there were so many people that some went via the lower part. Right the stage at the end, the same reused sign from the last march

I always like to take picture of women participating.

Left: These people provide some music. Right: Weird lady, I am not sure what to make of her.

These are more pictures taken at today’s opposition march, the story with two more pictures can be found here.

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Alexandra Belandia Ruiz Pineda spoke well for a new generation of leaders, while Pompeyo Marquez was there, still strong at 80 plus.

Swear words were the norm in posters as in these two: left: “How long are we going to allow them to screw us” Right: “The fall of the bridge only screws the people”

This lady above was really mad, screaming at everything, very hyper,
very loud. On the right, the heavily armed cops lurking in the
background just in case, no disguises and consideration for the local
Venezuelan as will be the case for those foreigners taking part in the World Social Forum.

Left: Overview of the crowd, right: poster:”Bars will not silence the truth.”

This girl got on top of a structure dressed in the flag and certainly made a good subject for taking pictures

Kids always give you great shots. The lady on the right was really mad at Monsignor Urosa who crticized the Cardinal who said the Chavez revolution was a failure, she tried to join the march but culd not jump over the divider.

Another shot of the march near Centro Lido. Right: Lady with very cute poster with General Prosecutor and Chavez’ unconditional crony Isaias Rodriguez with Pinocchio nose calling him a liar (Mentiroso).

Left: Guy with elaborate poster that says “Venezuela they are taking democarcy away from us: Wake up!, talking to some cops guarding the march. Right: Government poster about the “train” of the missions, I just hope they don’t go over the collapsed viaduct that has Caracas basically isolated from its main port and airport due to Government incompetence.

Lady showing who are the hoods that she thinks protects her vote. Young girl addresses the crowd telling them what the young want for Venezuela..