Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Hyperbole heard around the Bolivarian revolution…

October 23, 2011

-General Prosecutor Luis Artega Diaz: “The World Attacks us!!”

My, My aren’t we paranoid these days!

Vice-President Jaua: Private insurance is a business (invented) by the IVth. Republic so that the people don’t trust the public health system

That’s why during Chavismo, public workers became privately insured like never before in the history of Venezuela, overloading private hospitals!

BTW Elias, why isn’t Hugo trusting that same system?

PSUV leader Blanca Eekhout: “Muammar Al Gaddafi is turned into a martyr of the Libyan people. We know that with the courage that characterizes these people, the fight has just begun…his revolution gave (the Libyan people) the highest level of social Justice and human development index.

Blanca, the man is not only dead, but nobody is fighting for him anymore. Maybe you have not heard of Lockerbie and maybe, just maybe, imagine if your martyr had spent the US$ 200 billion he had stashed away on the 6,5 million Lybians, just think, almost $30,000 per person, waiting for? Do you guys even think about what you say?

The three medical stooges: And just to make sure we understand that Chavez is fine, a Bone Doctor, a tripa Doctor and an ofthalmologist come out and tell us Hugo is fine, because they know.

What are we to believe? His eyes are fine, his bones are fine and it has nothing to do with his digestive system? No oncologist? No urologist? No Cuban Doctor? BTW, where have you guys been since June? What compelled you to say something now, rather than, for example, June 20th to June 24h, when your patient was in intensive care? Were you there taking care of him? Why did Navarrete raise such a fuzz? And Chirinos was lying? You seem to be nine years late on that denial. Really weird…

-Hugo: “I will govern until I die.”

Well, I just don’t like that much uncertainty…

In Memorian: And Gadaffi Did Not Use Bolivar’s Sword to Defend Himself?

October 20, 2011

The non-existing automobile policy of the Venezuelan Government goes brainless

September 25, 2011

Donkeys in downtown Caracas, circa 1920

Starting this week, the Venezuelan Government will cap the prices at which cars can be sold in the country. This is yet another silly and failed policy by a Government who has done little in terms of defining any policy for the sector.

The Government did not have a policy in place before exchange controls were imposed in 2003, nor has it had a policy since.

Before exchange controls, it increased taxes on cars, such that all cars pay a basic 30% custom taxes, which becomes higher by 10% for luxury cars, which are defined as those that sell for more than US$ 30,000. After controls, the Government has gone from a free for all of imports at the preferential official exchange rate, to limited foreign currency for car parts or car imports.

In the middle, the Government did all sorts of things that simply did not help. Like allow any automobile brand to come in and give the importers cheap controlled dollars. For local manufacturers this created problems, it is hard to compete with imports, when your local costs are seeing 25% inflation year after year. Everything from fancy American cars, to German cars, to cheap Chinese imports, got cheap dollars until the numbers of cars imported (and the dollars!) simply soared to levels that were simply absurd. And the Government took notice. (They apparently weren’t watching)

Oh yeah! In the middle we were promised cheap Iranian and Chinese cars, made in Venezuela, that would break the back of all other car companies. We are still waiting.

Of course, the Government does not ask itself the basic question: Why do people want so many cars?

The answer is simple: cheap gas and cheap relative car prices relative to inflation. Cheap gas means that the cost of fueling the car is irrelevant when you buy or drive a car in Venezuela, courtesy of a crazy 8.5 US cents per gallon policy by the Venezuelan Government, since Chavez has yet to increase the price of gas even once during his twelve years in office. (Yes, with 1,300% inflation in those years!)

The second reason is that on a relative basis, cars are cheap. Twelve years ago, when Chavez took power, one dollar cost Bs. 0.575, given that inflation has been around 1,300%, that same dollar should cost around Bs. 7.45, instead the Chavez administration gives car companies dollars at Bs. 4.3 for the import of cars and parts to make cars. On top of that, in 1999 car companies could buy all the dollars they wanted to make cars, today those dollars are limited, i.e. the number of cars being sold is quite limited.

But even worse, the number of cars being sold is limited in an environment where the Government is printing money. How much money? Let me put it in perspective. In 1999, all of the Bolivars in the country would have bought 700,000 $20,000 cars. Today, all of the Bolivars out there would buy over 4,000,000 cars at the same price. That’s a factor of seven times!

Ever heard of supply and demand?

Not the Chavistas. For them it is all speculation. Thus, the “new” automobile policy is aimed at that. The solution is to regulate how much car companies can earn and they have magically decided to fix that at 10%. With 25-30% inflation that sounds like a sure no brainer so that that there will be fewer and fewer cars for sale in the upcoming years. Less investments, fewer companies, fewer cars.

It is indeed a revolution, just like Cuba, Venezuelans will be driving beaten down cars, or more romantically for a brainless revolutionary, they will be riding the donkeys or mules that their grandparents rode like the picture above.

Praying for Hugo in Manhattan

September 22, 2011

I am still a little confused by these images from the prayer service for Hugo Chavez held in Manhattan. Are we to believe now that Maduro has become a believer? And how about Sean Penn? And you have to wonder about a church whose claim to fame was that Fidel Castro the agnostic visited once.

But it is the images that I wonder about.  The word “cursi” comes to mind (Corny in English?). But in the end who were they aimed at?

Look at the invitation:


Chavez’ pose is reminiscent of the “good” Chavez days. It looks airy, almost super natural. Very religious. The question is who are they trying to canonize? Hugo?

Or is the picture below, is that of the soon to be anointed Son and the Spirit under him?:

Is a message being sent? To whom? The Vatican or the Venezuelan people?

Or was this just another corny Chavista show?

(Note the Sixtine Chapel like shades on the purple image of Hugo!)

The Not So Diplomatic Russian Ambassador to Venezuela

September 19, 2011

Today, Tal Cual carries a letter his newspaper received from the Russian Ambassador to Venezuela which is as undiplomatic in all respects as one could possibly think. The letter shows Ambassador Zaemskiv must have gone to the same School of Diplomacy most Chavista diplomats have gone to, showing that Mr. Zaemskiy is not on top of his job, he does not even know the details of what he is complaining about, but at the same time he is trying to defend Russian technology, by blaming five helicopter crashes on the ability of the Venezuelan military to fly them. He seems to forget, his Government had a responsibility for technology transfer.

As Petkoff details in his reply to the Ambassador’s letter, his newspaper wrote an article saying that five Russian helicopters, four Mi-17 helicopters and an Mi-26 helicopter had crashed in the last four years. Well, the Ambassador felt somewhat insulted by this, writing to say that it was only three, but if you check Venezuelan papers you will see that the original article was indeed correct. In Russian, and using independent sources from Tal Cual: один, два, три and  четыре for the Mi 17 and один for the Mi 26, and not three Mi 17’s like the Ambassador wants us to believe , but a total of five magnificent Russian machines, that just crashed.

In his last sentence the Ambassador talks about saving Venezuelan lives with these machines. Well, Mr. Ambassador, each of these wonderful crappy things you make in Russia and sell to Venezuela is worth like US$ 15 million: Do you know how many lives could have been saved with those US$ 75 million (It is a little more, but I did not bother to find out how much the Mi 26 is worth)

So, save your crappy sob, sob for another day or your бабушка (babushka).

As Petkoff notes, he is being called a liar in no uncertain terms, based on just the number of crashes, which the Ambassador had wrong, something which I think was not something a diplomat does in foreign soil, even if it is to defend Russian technology and he had the details right. He might be better of just saying nothing. Don’t insult your host, even if your are mad. But after this faux pas, Ambassador Zaemskiv compounds his lack of manners and diplomacy by saying:

“After each accident, a detailed investigation was performed composed of both Venezuelan and Russian military (my comment: No guarantee right there!)…the results of these investigation accepted by both sides is that there were no irregularities in these reliable machines”

Read: The accidents were due to the unreliable Venezuelans, they could not run the trinkets we sold them.

Which may be true, but maybe, just maybe, the people were not trained well, the whole thing was rushed, badly implemented, badly sold. It’s the sale that matters in Russian capitalism. In its rush to make the sale, Russia sold Venezuela helicopters that Venezuela did not have the trained personnel to fly. But hey Mr. Zaemskiv, if they crash, maybe we will buy more! Nice for Russian capitalism, exploiting dumb militaristic Venezuelan socialism, no?

The truth is that his words would be a scandal anywhere except in Stebanish country. Chavez and the Venezuelan military love buying expensive, useless toys, wasting money on things they can’t run, but feel happy about having. Ambassador  Zaemskiv pretty much says so: they sold us crap that we can’t handle, and he seems quite happy about it.

Whether the machines are good or not is irrelevant, here is a picture:

the truth is Ambassador Zaemskiv, that your country sold us crap. That your country has been irresponsibly selling crap to Chavez and making deals to take advantage of Chavez is well know. If the machines were “fine” and “reliable” like you say, the helicopter providers (you!) were not, they did not provide the training, nor the manuals, nor the know-how, nor the technology transfer required when you sell such a sophisticated machine.

And yes, these equally irresponsible Venezuelans on the other side buying your Russian crap, without training, manuals and with the same irresponsible attitude that you have.

And I can’t help to wonder, who collected the “comision” (отдача) in this deal. Do you Ambassador Zaemskiv know? You must, you seem very defensive in your letter.

And please Ambassador, you can use the comments section if you want to, we would love to hear from you!

(And yes, Petkoff may have also gone overboard calling the Ambassador a communist and used to lying, but I guess he has a right to rant too!)

Will Leopoldo Lopez be allowed to run by the Chavez Government?

September 16, 2011

Now that the Human Rights Court of the OAS has ruled that Leopoldo Lopez’ political rights were violated by the Venezuelan Government, will he be allowed to run?

My gut feeling says no, although there are arguments for saying they will.

Basically, it depends on the Government’s perception (and polls) on how it affects the current race.

Currently, Henrique Capriles is the clear front runner with almost 60% of the preferences in a race that even includes Lopez. However, it will not be the same poll if Lopez is openly campaigning and is allowed to register.

Thus, it boils down to whether they think Lopez takes sufficient votes away from Capriles to allow a third, and more easily beatable, candidate to get past both Lopez and Capriles.This could work both ways, if Lopez has no impact on numbers, this would give Capriles even more strength.

My gut feeling is that they will not let him run for a simple reason, a Capriles/Lopez or Lopez/Capriles duo would make a fearsome campaigning team with no links to the IVth. Having said that, Capriles could still say he would name Lopez as VP, even if he is not allowed to register for the primaries.

Additionally, accepting the decision means all of those banned from public office due to a decision by the Comptroller would be covered by the decision.

Not an easy choice for the Government…somehow I like that…

Protests have become a daily event in Venezuela

September 15, 2011

Yesterday, there were many protests against the Government as usual, what is different is the rage of the people and who they are. These are not opposition members as Chavez tries to portray, these are “pueblo” the very supporters of Chavez that seem to be getting tired of the lies and promises that never materialize.

I found two protests that were interesting, in part because the images are quite powerful. One is by people who were left homeless in the 2010 floods and are still living in temporary housing, despite promises that their problem would be resolved soon. The result? Well, the nice policemen tear gassed the protesters and some were injured:

The second case took place in Carabobo, near Moron, where people were protesting the fact that they had spent 24 hours without electricity and blocked the highway. The traffic jam was gigantic and as night fell, the protesters started looting the trucks that could not move on the road as seen in this picture:

As you can see this was not just a few people, but everyone seemed to be participating.

And I found this image quite dramatic, a barefoot guy trying to put a stolen pig on his motorcycle to carry it away after taking it from some poor trucker nearby:

Yeah! Hugo is widely popular and a hero to the “people”. Maybe that was the only reason to try to advance the election, the problems will get worse and worse as time goes by…and they know it!

The Fonden Papers Part VII: Some musings (a rant?) and observations!

September 10, 2011

I had a colleague, who will remain nameless, who left Venezuela almost three decades ago for a job in a multilateral organization. Years later, I found him again, working for a foundation. Miguel, he said, “I have the best job in the world, I read proposals from the best scientists in the world, I recommend to the Board the best ones, and they mostly go with my opinion.I basically decide how a few billion dollars are spent in the most exciting areas of of research in biology”

The story comes to mind, because according to the Fonden website, US$ 40 billion ( I have subtracted the missing US$ 29 billion or so) are decided by a “Directorio: (Board), composed of two people: Jorge Giordani and the Executive Secretary, someone named Claudia Garcia Guillen, whose CV is empty in the Fonden pages, and I have been unable to find much about her in google.com.

My friend would (or should) be envious!

Thus, mhewas wrong, there was a better job, imagine having the power or the ability to influence how million and billions of dollars are spent, even if you know little about the field, and steer Venezuela’s “development” with the money.

Except, that I am not sure about how these projects were approved. Was it Giordani who had the last word? Or was it Hugo himself? In the end, after reading all of the projects (I would take a test on my knowledge!) the whole thing makes little sense, when you look at the details of all the projects.

Let’s look at the biggest headache of Chavez Government in the last few years: The Electric problem. The root of all problems was Guri dam. The lack of maintenance forced the Government to stop almost half the turbines. This meant halting almost 50% of the main contributor to the country’s power generator. But, as you can see in row 113 of the spreadsheet, a scant US$ 64 milliom was assigned to this problem.

What gives?

There are 300-plus projects and this one does not even rate being in the top 80. They spent over 500 million dollars in at least 12 projects, US$ 100 million in at least 65 projects and Guri, barely got US$ 64 million.

But then, if you are distributing money right and left in the millions, why do you even bother to write down, consider or even give US$ 2,783 to overhauling the “Recrational Los Lagos El Encanto” Park (row 28). For God’s sake, give them US$ 3,000 out of petty cash and don’t even ask for receipts!

Remember, Fonden was supposed to be spent in foreign currency. All dollars. But you have things like liquidating INAM (row 134), the National Institute for Minors, which I am sure only required local currency.

But there are many like that. Take row 139, US$ 33 million to indemnify people who lost their homes in Lake Valencia, you certainly can’t justify paying them in foreign currency, no?

Or row 274, US$ 74 million to buy homes in the “secondary market” for those that lost their homes in the floods in Caracas. Did these people really get paid in US$ dollars. If not, how did Fonden exchange the money. Did they go to the central Bank and say: “Hey, remember the dollars you used to create Bolivars when PDVSA gave them to you and then you gave to me? Well, I want Bolivars for them now. Get it? If they did that, it would be giving someone Bolivars twice for the same dollars! Talk about being irresponsible!

How about row 230? 42 million dollars to build housing in the city of Caracas. Sounds good, no? Except the organization in charge of execution of the project is none other than the Ministry of Culture.

Hello! I know the Minister of Culture was an architect, but what does culture have to do with building housing?

I could go on and on, like 100 plus million on building ten new universities (Really, how crummy can they be?). Or the Metrocaribe Mariche, which received US$ 49 million (row 119), but can anyone near Mariche tell me if anything has been built? Or all the money invested in agriculture, what happened to it?

The point is that Fonden has been like a petty cash fund on steroids, used without planning, even random in topics and amounts. It is as if the revolution has no priorities, just throw money at stuff, hope something works.

But nothing seems to work.

And it all goes back to the same man, Jorge Giordani, the non-economist, obscure academic in charge of the economy for ten of the last twelve years. In charge of continued and soaring inflation. In charge of this boondoggle of a development fund, called Fonden, where money has been misspent, wasted, some US$ 29 billion somehow missing, and where the word “result”, “priority”, “evaluation” and the like seem to be absent from consideration.

And thus, I promise with this musing (or rant!) I will stop writing about Fonden unless new information becomes available. It should be a scandal, it should be a source of outrage. It is for me. We are talking US$ 25,000 for each person in Venezuela, spent without impact, without control and without accountability. To say nothing of how much of this money has been sent to Cuba.

Enough said!

Venezuela: Yes, They Really Said That!

September 8, 2011

-Central Bank President Merentes: “Almost all sectors of the economy grew, with the exception of construction.”

Must be the effect of that great plan called Mision Vivienda…Priorities always seem to screw up the sector chosen under Chavez.

Former everything Minister for Chavez Jesse Chacon: “We have to continue with Chavez, mejor malo conocido, que bueno por conocer (Better the bad one you know than a good one to get to know)”

Glad to see him acknowledging Chavez is bad, but he is simply sooo bad, he needs to leave…

Minister for Electricity and former guerrilla leader Ali Rodriguez: “People have a right to express their disgust and disagreement, but these (the protests) are criminal activities that inevitably lead to the use of force”

You have to love that coming from former guerrilla commander “Faust”, who spent thirty years shooting people and was apparently the last guerrilla member to give up in 1983, years after the guerrilla movement was dead in Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez himself: “We neglected the electrical sector”

Nooo! Wasn’t it El Niño? Or was it La Niña? Wasn’t it a boycott by the opposition? Ah! You did nothing for twelve years, you finally got it!

Hugo, in the end, you have neglected Venezuela…

Minister Ali Rodriguez (again): “Logic says that gasoline and energy prices have to be increased”

Yes Ali, after twelve years this seems “logical”, but logic is not Hugo’s Government’s strength, irrationality seems more like it. It was him that stopped the last scheduled gasoline price increase under Caldera in 1998 and froze Electric rates 8 years ago. Thus, he will keep gasoline and electricity prices where they are until he leaves, whether in 2012 or 2030. That’s his logic!

And speaking of price increases, user of Movistar complained about the company’s rate increases and Indepabis quickly responded freezing the company’s rates and starting an investigation and sanctioning them. Well, with 30% inflation and the fact that the company does not receive as much foreign currency as Movilnet and now no price increase, then users should get ready to have deteriorating service. In Movilnet, that is guaranteed due to the lack of investment, nothing like insuring your future is bleak due to stupidity! (Disclosure: I am not a Movistar subscriber!)

The Fonden Papers Part VI: More information, the numbers still don’t add up!

September 7, 2011

As I noted in the next to last post, there is now more information on the website of Fonden on the details of the projects funded. After spending a day looking at “tools” that would allow me to manipulate the data, I gave up. So, I began doing the task by brute force, I went to “Todos Los Proyectos” above and copied project by project into an Excel spreadsheet, hoping to find some of the “missing” US$ 29 billion or so. You can find the Excel spreadsheet here.

The quick conclusion?

All of the projects added up to September 6th. 2011 on the webpage of Fonden add up to only US$ 27.22 billion, far from the US$ 69 billion of the earlier report to the National Assembly.

The difference?

Projects of the Ministry of Defense and Cuba are not described at all in the Fonden webpage (On purpose, I imagine). Thus, if we add the US$ 4.88 billion from Defense and the US$ 6.06 billion from Cuban projects, we reach the total of:

US$ 38.158 billion, some US$ 30 billion short (Still!) of the US$ 69 billion the fund has received and the total provided by the Finance Ministry to the National Assembly.

Thus, all the work did not yield much, except that by doing it brute force, I read every single project in the website in detail and will have more to say about them later. For now, we still have some US$ 29 billion “Unaccounted for” based on the information provided to the National Assembly, as well as combining the projects in the Fonden website on Sept. 6th. 2011 plus those missing from it in the report to the Assembly.

Small change for the revolution…