The Devil's Excrement

Lilian Tintori, Lopez’ wife addresses marchers

Yesterday, Venezuelans marched all over the country, and also abroad, to protest against the Government, in favor of political prisoners and asking for more democracy. The marches were peaceful and attendance was quite nice, given the fear that people have of a repeat of last year’s repression by the Maduro Government. The success of the protest was a tribute to Leopoldo Lopez, who seems more attuned in ail with the opposition than most of the opposition leadership. In fact, it was remarkable that from his cell and using a video, Lepoldo Lopez could accomplish what he did, thousands of people going and protesting, knowing the dangers that they were exposed to.

But what it showed is that people are fed up and ready to protest and Leopoldo has understood that quite well ever since last year. In contrast, the leadership of the opposition unity group, the MUD, really blew it, rejecting the march openly, rather than staying quietly on the sidelines.

What the MUD does not seem to understand is that at this point in time, there is need for many different ways to express opposition. Elections are a nice goal, but here we are May 31st. and there is no scheduled election to take place in 2015. Oh yeah, there should be parliamentary elections before the end of 2015, but what if the CNE does not call for them? Does the MUD have a plan B?

In fact, I find it very hard to understand why the MUD did what it did. To me, it really had only two choices: One to simply shut up, the other to back the march and incorporate demands for an immediate announcement of when the elections will take place into the protest.

It is as if 16 years of dirty tricks and subterfuges have not convinced the MUD that this is not a fair game, this is a game which is loaded with radioactive dice that do whatever the revolution wants and needs. And at every step, the revolution has had weapons, plans and tricks, while the opposition has always had a naive plan A, but no Plan B, or let alone any possible dirty tricks.

But dirty tricks is all the opposition will get from here on, from gerrymandering (here is a simple explanation from today’s twitter):

to faking census data, to fielding fake opposition candidates, to cheating on the elections, Chavismo is, as always, ready to pull all of the dirty tricks in the Universe. Including changing laws so that an opposition victory becomes meaningless.

And in the middle of this, the MUD can not even back a protest promoted by one of its leading members who happens to have a very vested interest in all this, given by the fact that he has been in jail 14 months for his strong stance against the Maduro Government.

And the MUD strategy was not to support the march? Gimme a break!

Well, in my humble opinion, they did more to damage their reputation with the rank and file with this decision than with any previous one, at a time that they are trying to promote the vote among the member of the opposition. In the end, it may not matter, Leopoldo will call for people to go and vote and they will follow his wishes. But why waste so much energy in non-existing problems?

What yesterday showed is that the people want leadership. They want to do things, but they do not want to sit passively until the CNE or Maduro or Cuba, whomever calls for elections in Venezuela decides to. They want to put pressure. They have many issues, from democracy, to Human Rights, to crime, to lines, to shortages, but they are being told to stay home till whenever some hypothetical elections take place.But they want action now, and they know now that Leopoldo and Capriles, who smartly backed the march, are the leaders. The rest are just living room politicians taking the supposedly safe road.

But that road does not include the people’s frustration and one day, the people may simply overcome the leadership and act on their own, unless somebody, whether in jail or not, is capable of leading them they way they want.

Elections and Protests are not two different strategies. They are part of an array of weapons that the opposition needs to use. In fact, marches and protests are the way to motivate and promote the vote, when and if, the Government decides that it will finally take place.

It has been a while since I reported on my Hyperinflated Arepa Index. In April I had one while in Caracas, but the variation in price was so small (see graph) that I did not think it was worth boring you with the small increase.

Then I went back last week, before the unmentionable parallel rate of exchange had soared, and as you can see in the graph above, the Hyperinflated Arepa Index seems to be a leading indicator of what the abominable website reports, as in one month, there was an increase of 53.3%. This is above what the parallel rate rose in the same period.

You be the judge…

The summary of the increases so far are then:

Nov. 17th. Bs 120

Dec. 7th. Bs. 156 Increase of 30% in three weeks

Jan. 21st. Bs. 178.6 increase of 14.7% in six weeks

April 15th. Bs. 187.5 increase of 5% in 11 weeks

May 15th. Bs 275 an increase of 53.9% in four weeks

Since it was almost precisely six months since my first delicious arepa for this experiment, we can quote the half a year inflation of 129.16%.

I could do a fit to the slope, but really, it is only five points, we dont not need such sophistication. .

I guess I will have to continue being a glutton and eat those delicious arepas in the name of data collection and science every time I go there. Will have to bike more too…

Venezuelans love a conspiracy theory. Sometimes it seems it is easier to embrace such theories than to analyze what is going on. Least of all, look at numbers to seek a possible explanation. This week was a clear example of that. As the parallel exchange rate soared, the most common explanation was that a webpage was manipulating the price of the dollar for some obscure or maybe not so obscure purpose.

That webpage claims to obtain its price from whatever its happening at the border of Venezuela with Colombia. These are real transactions. The exchange houses in Cucuta open in the morning and begin trying to make a market adjusting the price according to what they see. I have no clue as to the volume traded in Cucuta every day, but the border has a very active trade and there has to be a way of going back and forth between Bolívars and US$ or Pesos. This is what that webpage supposedly reports.

Of course, that particular webpage has a lot of influence, as it seems to be the one most people check. But let’s look at the variables that affect the exchange rate and what’s been happening in the last few months.

At the origin of everything, is oil. The Venezuelan oil basket determines how any dollars come in every day to the country, whether you believe the country’s production is X or Y, variations in the price of oil affect the cash flow the Government sees. And that determines everything. When the Government had savings and cash lots of cash flow, it would divert some money to the parallel exchange, whether before it became illegal in 2010, after that or in the last few months. The problem is that savings are gone, the Government owes everyone money and it has so little foreign currency that in March it created  a new and newfangled foreign exchange system with three official rates (Bs. 6.3 per US$, Sicad and Simadi) and the second one, Sicad, has yet to have an auction. It is only used as a reference according to the last value it had prior to the new system being announced.

That’s how little money the Government has.

This is what the Venezuelan oil basket has done in the last six months: As you can see, the price hit bottom at $38.82 per barrel the week of January 31st and has recovered to US$ 56.28 per barrel by now. However, most oil sold by Venezuelan is sold on a 90 day basis, so that the Government is receiving today is that of 90 days ago, or roughly February 20th., which was around US$ 47 per barrel.  Thus, cash flow has improved in the last three weeks (In theory the minimum was around April 30th), however, the lower cash flow has taken a huge toll on the savings (International reserves): Reserves began the year at US$ 22 billion, grew to over US$ 24 billion in March and since then, they have dropped to barely US$ 17 billion. That’s a 22.7% drop since January, thanks to the Dominican Republic buying out its Petrocaribe debt and down 29.16% since the beginning of March.

Not a pretty picture.

At that level, liquid international reserves are likely around US$ 500 million at most, which is peanuts for a country the size of Venezuela. And with shortages all over the place and the Government owing money to everyone (A Brazilian delegation of food exporters came to Venezuela a week ago, they left empty handed) there is simply little money for the parallel market.

Thus, as demand soars (companies have to function), supply collapses.

Guess what happens then?

Moreover, some of the supply disappeared as the jailing of a couple of Venezuelans in the US has apparently scared some suppliers of the market.

If goods are scarce in Venezuela, then the greenback seems to be the the toughest good to find.

And if you think that the dollar market price is artificial and there is little volume in that market, let me show you a graph of another market: The Caracas Stock Exchange. Volume in this market is very low, some $50k-$100k per day. Why? Because there are very few shares to be had. Well, this week, as the parallel exchange rate soared 31%, the Caracas Stock Index soared even more, jumping up 42% for the same reason: Simply put, there are very few stocks sold and people were looking to protect their savings, just like those seeking to buy foreign currency are trying to either protect their savings or keep their enterprises going.

And you can’t blame any webpage for the fact that stocks soared even more (close to 25% more!) than the actual rate of exchange. And there is some real trading in that market…

The point is that what is going on is simply the effect of scarcity. The Government has fewer dollars at a time that it has run down its savings.

And to make matters even worse, the Venezuelan Central Bank keeps printing Bolívars like there is no tomorrow, as shown by this plot of how M2, the Money Supply, has increased since last year:

As you can see, as the price of oil collapsed (fewer dollars), the Money Supply, the number of Bolívars in circulation (which can buy dollars) almost doubled and the savings are practically gone. This means that there are almost twice as many Bolívars chasing those very scarce dollars, local stocks and/or goods.

Simply, a recipe for disaster… So, don’t blame a webpage or a conspiracy…blame reality.

While there is no question that seeing Godgiven’s face on the front of the WSJ’s website was extremely satisfying and priceless, particularly to those of us that have spent over a decade trying to unmask the hoodlums in the Chavista regime, we are unsure that this headline will have the immediate meaning that some believe it has.

I mean, it is not as if Maduro got his copy of the WSJ this morning saw the headline and said: “Oh my God, how could he do this?”. I mean, this is old news. How many members of the Venezuelan military close to this person have been declared drug kingpins in the past, including his buddy Carvajal? Who happens to be Maduro’s buddy too…

And this is a press report, not even an indictment. Can we get one, please?

People have many theories surrounding this, but I buy few of them. The first and obvious one is that the Secretary of State’s Emssary Tom Shannon asked Maduro to get rid of Godgiven, showing him proof of his activities and the US would normalize relations and thus the leak

Really?

Is Maduro so strong that he can get rid of the most powerful former military in Government just like that?

I am not so sure…

After all, Maduro comes from the civilian, ideological side of Chavismo, while Godgiven represents the connection to active military. How many of his classmates hold important positions in  Government? Maduro’s connection to them is tenuous at best.

In fact, if anything, this could be the spark for increased political instability in Venezuela. If Godgiven sees his political base undermined, he may decide to go for the whole enchilada. And this would bode badly for everything: Democracy, Stability, Human Rights and the future of Venezuela.

But my bet is that this will be turned into a Venezuela vs. the US battle. Another excuse to blame the problems of the country on Obama and his right wing Government. The Evil Empire trying to get rid of the expanding ideological influence of Madurismo and simply another battle in the economic war against the extremely successful economies policies of Chavismo and other stupidities like that.

In any case, we will know shortly who is right on this…

This week, the Venezuelan military and the police essentially took over the city of Maracay, attempting to restore order in the crime ridden San Vicente barrio. While most of the news has centered on the origins of this confrontation, what I find the most interesting is that this happens to be ocurring in Maracay of all places.

You see, the city of Maracay, located about 130 Km. South West of Caracas is as much of a military enclave as there exists in Venezuela. Look up, for example, Wikipedia, and you will find the following list of “interesting facts about Maracay”:

After history and Economy and Transport, comes “Military”, because the military plays such an essential role in the life of the city. And under Military, you will find the following description:

Maracay is the cradle of aviation, Chavez led his coup from there, the 4th. Armored division is there and Venezuela’s gun production military company is there.

Despite this huge military presence, the military has been unable to protect itself from the widespread crime of the country. In fact, Maracay is among the top cities in crime per inhabitant and the crooks seem to be armed with grenades and weapons “obtained” from the many military facilities in the city. As an example, when some gang members were killed by the police, the gangs retaliated by simultaneously attacking three units of the investigative police with grenades, which led to the raid on Barrio San Vicente.

Which leads to my main point: Venezuela’s military is so incapable, so dysfunctional, that it can not even protect its own turf. You would think that a city dominated by military life would be the safest, as high ranking officers worry about their wives and kids. Instead, their inability to coordinate and execute, their lack of training and their corruption has made their own turf among the worst in the country.

In fact, the grenades and weapons come from the same factory the military runs. It is just big business to sneak out and sell a grenade here, a box of bullets there and a gun somewhere else. That’s how the gangs armed themselves.

But you can’t blame it all on incompetent military. This is in fact part of the Chávez legacy. Chávez wanted these now so-called gangs to be armed, in order to create paramilitary groups that would support him and his Government when and if the time came. Except that these groups took a life of their own, became independent enterprises, while the military found it hard to go against the Big Boss and looked the other way, while they also enriched themselves.

So now, over ten years late, the revolution tries to stop the monster it created. Reportedly, there were three dead and 800 wounded in the raid and they keep running them trying to isolate the gangs. But the big problem is that those detained will suffer the same system of injustice that has been allowed in Venezuela during the last 16 years: Jails have triple their capacity, most prisoners remain jailed without sentencing and guess who runs the jails?  The same gangs that run San Vicente, kill cops at will and fight the military.

So the military is now being bitten by its own incompetence, indolence and ability to ignore even the problems that surround them. When and if this nightmare ends, one has to wonder if the military simply has to be eliminated, they seem as dysfunctional as the Chavista Government and incapable of contributing to restoring order and organization in Venezuelan society.

The idea must have occurred to Godgiven C that fateful weekend when General Hugo Carvajal was suddenly jailed in Aruba and barely escaped deportation to the US. At that point it must have been clear to Godgiven, no more Miami, Andorra, Panama and the like in the future for him. Except for places he would not like to visit, like China, Cuba, Iran and Russia, he was now trapped in the hellish country the former Hugo created and he helped destroy. Not even his family could safely visit the Empire or even neighboring countries, as you never knew what trick could Obama play against them with all his influence. Well, he must have thought, if I am trapped in Venezuela and feel so claustrophobic about it, I will make sure my enemies are too. Because he felt truly awful. What would he spend all his money on if he was trapped in Venezuela?

Thus, why jail them? Why not sue the few remaining media outlets in the country and have the Judge ban their owners, Directors, legal counsel from leaving the country and thus subject them to the same unfair punishment the gringos imposed on him?

And so he did. The first chance he got, a really preposterous case, he sued for defamation everyone of importance at El Nacional, La Patilla and Tal Cual and a friendly Judge complied his wishes and 22 members of the respective Boards, including Miguel Henrique Otero, Teodoro Petkoff (again!) and Alberto Ravell (who is not in Venezuela) are now prohibited from leaving the country.

The case is so preposterous that all these media outlets did was simply to reproduce verbatim what Spanish newspaper were saying about Godgiven. This not only violates freedom of speech, but even international treaties exempt such reproductions of news items from legal liability, except for the source.

But it gets even worse. According to Venezuelan law, the Court had to notify each of the defendants, something that has yet to be done and under no circumstance can the Judge rule that the defendants were prohibited from leaving the country or be a flight risk if she had not even talked to them or knew in detail anything about them, other than they were on the Board of these media outlets.

And to add insult to injury, the defamation case got really speedy consideration and resolution in a country where the average prisoner has not seen a Judge in the first few months after its detention and most spend two years without sentence.

Of course, their name is not Godviven C. (A pseudonym used to protect the author of this blog).

Oh! his power! His manipualtion of Justice!

The intent is clear: To intimidate. If the simple reproduction of news items published outside or inside the country by any media outlet can be a justification to sue you for defamation and block you from leaving the country, the few media outlets that maintain some form of independence will be silenced even more.

And reporters, media owners, Directors will all be trapped in Venezuela and with Godgiven to boot. Just think, none of them can take a jaunt to Aruba to get some shampoo, soap or even Harina Pan, let alone enjoy their wealth.

The worst part is that at some point they may even  be trapped for hours with Godgiven in Court.

It is hard to think of worst punishment for them…

As you may have guessed, I have been away (Still am). The picture above, taken by me a couple of days ago in Northern Italy, depicts what I did for the last week, after celebrating an important birthday in Spain the previous one. So, I have been mostly out of touch with Venezuela, if that is ever possible, more so when you are traveling with a group of Venezuelans. And all we hear simply reflects that Venezuela has become a very dysfunctional country in all aspects of a daily life, led by an incompetent Government that despite its few successes, insists in continuing on its path which leads to mostly failures.

-Nothing shows this dysfunctionality more than the electric crisis. When the current Minister for Electric Affairs Jesse Chacón assumed the post in 2013, he said he would stabilize the system in 100 days. Two years and who knows how many billions later, the system is as unstable (or more) than two yeas ago and as usual Chacón and the Vice-President blame nature and the weather, but nt their blatant incompetence. And to prove their point the come up with the brilliant solution of having pubic workers work only in the morning to save electricity.

Brilliant!

I can think of two immediate effects this will have: 1) Many of these workers will join the ranks of the bachaqueros in the afternoons, promoting arbitrage, longer lines and higher prices. 2) The rest will go home to watch TV, turn on air conditioners and use more electricity than its used in public offices where thee same workers share the offices.

This was probably decided by Arreaza and Chacón without consulting any experts or even knowledgeable people, much like everything is decided in Venezuela by Chavismo.

-And in his infinite wisdom Maduro honored five Cubans whose main accomplishment was to get caught and be jailed in the US for spying. Quite an example. I guess Maduro would like to have some glorious past, other than being a bus driver, sucking up to both Chávez and Cilia. But I think he will not have time now. Remarkably, Leopoldo’s jail time is worth more than the five Cubans put together in terms of being repressed, harassed and the comforts of Ramo Verde.

-And only in a Dictatorship can the National Assembly decide that previously elected positions will no longer be voted for (Parlatino). No scandal, no noise as the Electoral Board agrees with this without even a discussion. I wonder what Dilma, Correa, Cristina and the rest of the the mercantile gang have to say about this…

-And despite cards, biometrics and increased Government controls, the lines are shortages are still there. But instead of reducing controls, Maduro wants to control the whole distribution system. I wonder if at that point, everything will be stolen and sent to Colombia and the country will stop functioning.

-And in a weird twist, the Government has decided to ignore certain problems it can not solve by dollarizing. Can’t figure out how to solve the problem with the airlines?: Dollarize and allow ticket prices in foreign currency. Don’t know what to do about the auto sector?: Allow Ford to dollarize prices. The good thing is that if you extrapolate, everything will be dollarized at some point, since they are incapable of solving any problem.

-And yes, the Government announces with pomp and circumstance that all cars in Tachira State now have a chip to control their purchase of gasoline. Of course, the Government says nothing about whether gasoline smuggling has gone down. They probably have no clue.

-And the new clown in the Government is the Minister of Health. When papers said that 13,000 medical doctors had left the country, he said that only 320 had left in the last six years. Never mind that graduate programs have no students, hospitals no Doctors and 90% of graduating classes have left the country. This guy is the new Chavista “expert” someone who has no clie but can make up stories as he goes along.

He could be a good replacement for Chacón in the Electric Ministry, he seems to be very good about inventing excuses.

And so it goes, back soon…

Meet Gregor MacGregor, a Scottish military officer, adventurer and hero of Venezuela’s Independence War, who joined the fight against Spain in 1811 and quickly became a general of the Venezuelan Army by 1812, marrying a cousin of Simón Bolívar. Later MacGregor fought in Colombia, the Caribbean and Central America. In 1820 MacGregor was named to the Constituent Congress in Cucuta, but rather than go there, he went to attack the Spanish city of Portobelo in Panama, failing in the attempt. From there, MacGregor went to Nicaragua, where he met the Poyais (Payas in Spanish) indians and signed with them a treaty to colonize their territory.

And here is where his life became interesting and he pioneered the now long tradition of fraud related to Venezuela: MacGregor moved to Great Britain in 1820 and claimed to be the Cacique and Prince of Poyais, a country that did not even exist. The country was supposedly located in the Bay of Honduras and reportedly King Frederic Augustus I of the Mosquito Shore and Nation had bestowed the land to him. In reality, the land supposedly bestowed on him by King Frederic had been plied away from him with alcohol and consisted of four run down buildings, which were surrounded by swamps and there were no riches whatsoever.

But MacGregor convinced everyone that his fake country of Poyais was full of riches.To help his cause, he had a book Published called “Sketch of the Mosquito Shore, including the Territory of Poyais”, which you can read in google archives, supposedly written by a certain Captain Thomas Strangeways. The book described the wonderful and rich country of Poyais, rich in metals, wood, indigo, animals, trees, offering the enterprising European a unique opportunity for investment and work. The book claimed remarkable opportunities that could turn an investment of 150 pounds into 1,000 in one year or recoup your investment in a coffee plantation in only five years.

And then came the first scam, the issuance of bank notes by the Bank of Poyais, offering to pay “one hard dollar after sight”

in the option of the Government of Poyais. He also sold land at one schilling per acre in cash, sold in perfectly square plots of 540 acres.

But being the true pioneer that he was, MacGregor issued bonds in the amount of 200,000 pounds. The bonds were reportedly sold at 80% of its face value at a rate which some sources claim was 3%, while others say 6%. But this graph of the evolution of the price of the bonds clearly indicates 3% bonds:

MacGregor was so daring, that he even sent seven boats of settlers to Poyais, knowing that he would be found out for sure. When the few settlers that survived came back in 1823, London papers reported the fraud and MacGregor fled to France.

And in France he simply started again, reportedly raising another 1.1 million pounds in new money. He was briefly jailed in France, but acquitted. MacGregor did not even try to pay any of the investors, he simply pocketed the money and eventually moved to the French countryside to enjoy life, while continuing to try to peddle land in the country of Poyais.

By 1838 MacGregor had ran out of funds and returned to Venezuela, where he asked for a pension, the Venezuela nationality and his old military position and rank. He was reinstated as Division General and was eventually buried with honors in the Panteon Nacional along with Simón Bolívar

As with so many other Venezuelan crooks and fraudsters, MacGregor suffered no moral punishment from Venezuela, welcomed back with open arms and buried with honors. Thus was born a tradition that has continued from Poyais to Andorra and from the time of our war of Independence to that of Chavismo.

Added: A reader sends this picture of a certificate for a Puyaisian land grant

Hat Tip for idea : Eduardo

The issuance of the new decree on travel allowances or quotas demonstrated how upside down things are in Venezuela and the damage that Chavismo has done to the way the population population thinks. We already know or knew beforehand how incapable the Government is and this decision once again exemplifies it: Only fifty days ago the Minister of Finance said the previous policy would remain in place for the full year and the decree is a mixture of inconsistencies and bizarre facts.

But the short sighted and self-centered reaction by too many Venezuelans is what is really a sad commentary on how Venezuelans think today and how much Chavismo has screwed up their brains in the last 16 years. How people can complain about a reduction in their travel quotas, in a country with shortages of food and medicines, where hospitals can’t provide basic services and care and is a tribute to how successful Chavismo has been in turning most Venezuelans into rent-seeking, self-serving and egoistical citizens who only think about themselves and are no longer able to distinguish the trees from the forest.

Touch anything, but don’t touch my subsidy!

But the problem is not the quotas, there is no basic right to provide citizens with the ability to travel abroad. Least of all, at a subsidized prize. The problem is the controls. Not only that they exist, but that there is no free or open market to which people can go and buy foreign currency to travel, if they can afford it.

The problem is that a time of falling oil prices and facing a deficit of US$ 25-30 billion, the Government was ready to use US$ 4 billion in 2015 to subsidize travel abroad for the more affluent sectors of the population. The most absurd part is that this was reduced to about US$ 2 billion, still an incongrouos amount, given the lack of foreign currency and the crisis facing the country.

This is still only about 10% of the gasoline subsidy, another subsidy that is also skewed to favor the wealthier part of the population and which should also be reduced dramatically.

Of course, it is the Government that is to be blamed for all of this, but the travel allowance is as much of a way to buy people’s sympathy as cheap food, cheap gas, cheap electricity and all the other crazy subsidies in place in the country.

But via this decree, the Government also shows how incompetent and incapable it is. To start with, nothing has changed, macro-economically speaking, since the beginning of the year. If anything, oil is slightly higher, but the deficit still looms large. How the Government thought or believed that it could get away with using US$ 4 billion for travel simply boggles the mind. You would think if the Government made a budget for foreign currency at the beginning of the year, the US$ 4 billion for travel would have stood out dramatically on that short list if you ordered foreign currency expenses by size.

But it is also part of the same absurdity implied by the fact that the Government is keeping the Bs. 6.3 per US$ rate for 70% of imports (for now) or the Bs. 12 per US$ Sicad rate for other things, despite the fact that there has been no Sicad auction yet since the “new” foreign exchange system was announced. This is as unsustainable as most policies by this Government.

In fact, when it comes down to it, the Government can not even afford the US$ 2 billion for travel allowances, what it should have done is eliminate the travel allowances altogether and use that amount in a free floating market, or to feed it to Simadi, which has been a gigantic failure so far. Because the first effect of the new decree is to push people over to the black market to either buy dollars for travel or complete their needs. This will only push that rate higher, which will be followed by even more inflation. A losing game in the end.

And the decree itself is bizarre and full of strange biases. Like, what is the rational for giving people almost three times more for a stay in Europe, over a stay in Mexico or the US? Is life really that much more expensive in Europe at a time of the euro going rapidly towards parity with the US$? And since the amounts are obviously insifficient fr a stay of more than eight days in the US, isn’t the Government simply acknowledging that this is a subsidy?

Or what is the rationale for eliminating the cash advance? Or the amount that can be withdrawn via an ATM, which was reduced to only 10% of the travel quota? Or the rationale of leaving the cash advance only for people underage? Why do they need cash and the adults do not?

And without noticing, the Government via this decree, is forcing people to open accounts and obtain credit cards in state-owned banks by banning private banks from participating in this business. Another effort to add controls and screw the private sector that goes unnoticed and nobody complains about. This is in the end should be what scares the people the most, how with one swipe, the Government creates a system in which the private sector can not participate and which forces anyone wanting to travel to open an account and obtain a credit card with a state-owned bank.

Uncle Nico will be watching you!

But people did not seem to notice these details. All they saw was their privileges reduced, their perks limited, even if it was absurd to keep the current quota allowances. But in the end, this subsidy will be paid over the coming years by all Venezuelans. In fact, we are all paying for the absurd travel subsidies of the last eleven years.

In the end, the reduction of the allowances exposes how privileges and subsidies distort people’s thinking, leading them to believe they are entitled to absurd rights. Which only indicates how tough the road back will be to a Venezuela in which priorities are set in logical and reasonable fashion, with subsidies aimed only at the weakest of the population.

While the media in Venezuela barely reports corruption scandals, let alone investigate them, thanks to the press abroad and the Chavista crooks that get caught, we have learned 1000 ways in which Chavismo has ripped off and arbitraged the Government for their own personal profit. From Argentinean bonds, to contracts, to Illaramendi, to Maletagate, to Andorra, there have been a myriad ways to make money. By now the numbers are so scandalous that even a former Minister of Planning that oversaw over much of the time how these rip-offs took place, claims that there were US$ 22 billion in fake import orders in 2012 alone.

But details are hard to get, as even in the Andorra case we have only scratched the surface. But now we get a picture of the 1001th. Chavista rip-off thanks to investigative reporters from Argentina’s Clarin.

In 2005, the Venezuelan Government set up a trust at UBS to fund transactions between Argentinean and Venezuelan companies in the oil sector, apparently with emphasis in trading finished products. Money was supposedly put into this trust and as transactions took place, people got paid from it.

But according to a cable by Argentina’s Ambassador to Venezuela, the money was also used for personal profit. According to the Ambassador, someone borrowed US$ 90 million from the trust, exchanged it for Bolívars in the swap market and then repurchased the dollars at the official rate of exchange at the time which was about 14.5% lower than the parallel rate. The result? They obtained US$ 13 million more which they kept and returned the US$ 90 million to the UBS account.

Just think, the crooks that controlled the trust on both sides had sufficient weight in PDVSA and the Government that they could show up with Bolívars, which had nothing to do with the purpose of the trust or the Argentinean-Venezuelan cooperation since trading was in dollars, and buy dollars again. In theory, they could do this operation over and over, except they got caught by an honest Ambassador. (He was actually removed from his post due to the cable)

Remarkably, the man on Argentina’s side that scolded the Ambasasdor was none other than Claudio Uberti of Maletagate fame, who has been accused of quite a number of scandals and accusations. Uberti was the high ranking Argentinean official who supposedly asked Antonini to bring in the suitcases which arrived in Buenos Aires in a plane rented by PDVSA.

Of course, the Argentineans are interested in it, because the money may have ended up in an account in which Cristina Kirchner’s son has signature.

Think about it, at the time the difference between the official rate and the parallel rate was “only” 15%, imagine the deals, “guisos” and rip-offs that went one when the difference was like last year up to 3,800%.

No wonder the Government does not want to remove the Bs. 6.3 per US$ rates, with that rate, anyone with access to it, can make the same US$ 13 million, by selling 336,000 dollars in the parallel market and buying 13.36 million dollars at Bs. 6.3 per US$.

It is arbitrage on steroids…