The Devil's Excrement

This week the swap (parallel) exchange rate shot up again, closing around Bs. 4,750, roughly 2.2 times the official exchange rate. About two weeks ago I wrote that the only way for it was up and indeed it has done that at a very fast clip since then.

People are constantly surprised that this can be so. They think that given the difference between the official and swap rate, it should not go up so fast and that given the Government’s resources, it will intervene in the market to make the rate drop.

This is all wishful thinking, there are both short term and long term conditions all pointing at the parallel rate continuing to shoot up and except for one or two measures, there is not much the Government can do at this time. This is the history of exchange controls in Venezuela: It all works at the beginning and slowly controls break down until they unravel.

Let’s look at the short term and long term reasons for the rise, looking first at what has made the swap rate move up from around Bs. 4,100 at the beginning of August to the current value:

The recent rise can be explained by some short term pressures on the swap market:

–Since June 1st monetary liquidity has jumped US$ 5 billion to US$ 59 billion , adding pressure to the parallel market

–The Government announced that it would sell some US$ 1 billion in structured notes to local financial institution in the next few weeks. As far as anyone has been able to determine only US$ 200 million was sold. many operators in the swap market were short (sold dollars they did not have expecting to buy them cheaper) awaiting for these sales to drive the rate lower.

–The Government announced the Bono del Sur III, which made many investors either wait for the bond before buying or go short. Since the bond had to be canceled or postponed this drove the swap rate higher. Until world markets stabilize this bond will not come to market.

–The final force driving the swap rate higher was the fact that part of the failure of the Bono del Sur III was that the bolivar part, the so called TICC’s, dollar denominated bonds which trade in local currency, was due to the fact that these bonds were part of the foreign currency quota banks may have. The Central Bank issued a resolution in the 16th. saying this is no longer the case. Since many banks had TICC’s as part of their foreign currency portfolios, after the resolution came out they went to the swap market to buy more foreign currency to replace their TICC’s in their quotas.

–The proposal for Constitutional Reform unnerved many investors because of the removal of the independence of the Central Bank, which will have a direct impact over the long term value of the exchange rate and the threat to private property rights.

Longer term, it is hard to believe the swap rate can have a significant drop and all signs point towards much higher rates before the end of the year. Among them:

–The Government’s ability to absorb monetary liquidity is now limited due to the high Government spending. Two years ago a US$ 3 billion issue would remove 10% of that liquidity, today it requires US$ 6 billion to have the same effect. Moreover, liquidity should keep going up the remainder of the year as the Government will certainly maintain its high spending (the only policy that can slow the growth in monetary liquidity) at least until the approval of the referendum for Constitutional reform.

–International reserves have not gone up much since March due to the high ever of imports as well as the fact that the more than 100% difference between the official and swap exchange rates creates many opportunities for arbitrage. The numbers are becoming staggering: Imports will be US$ 45 billion for the year and the US$ 3,000 per citizen for purchases via the Internet is becoming a huge source of corruption. People are paid to request these dollars which are then sold in the parallel market at a hefty profit. Just think if five million Venezuelans request this allocation, that alone represents a drain of US$ 15 billion in international reserves. In addition people get US$ 5,000 for travel per year and airline tickets are paid at Bs. 2,150 per dollar. After three years of a constant exchange rate and internal inflation near 20%, traveling at the official rate of exchange seems very cheap.

–The approval of the new Constitution and its consequences will keep the pressure on the rate till the end of the year, as the uncertainties mentioned above on the Central Bank and private property will make people and corporations seek refuge in foreign currency.

–Monetary reconversion, the new “Bolivar Fuerte” coming into effect on Jan. 1st., is also a source of concern. Since nobody believes that just removing three zeros from the currency will stabilize the currency, people suspect that there is an ulterior motive behind it, a devaluation of the currency being the most likely suspect. The Government denies any devaluation is in the cards at least until 2009.

–There are no incentives to save in local currency since interest rates are deeply negative. Inflation is running near 20% and a bolivar denominated Government bond offers at most 9%, while a PDVSA dollar denominated bond gives you a 10% yield.

–There are incentives to borrow in local currency and either buy durable goods imported at the official rate or to buy dollars and wait for the parallel rate to devalue further.

Of course, according to the President of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, there is no problem. This is all part of the “new financial architecture” of the revolution. According to him, economics is an evolving subject where you can innovate and create new ways of doing things and the robolution is simply getting rid of the IMF paradigms such as the independence of Central Banks. I guess he thinks he can do away with other paradigms, such as inflation being a monetary phenomenon and exchange controls working with a parallel rate which is more than twice the official exchange rate.

He is in for a big surprise!

Anyone that believes that the (Constitutional) reform goes against them should leave, Chavez has enough people…

Miranda Governor Diosdado Cabello

Yesterday I discussed Art. 344 of the Venezuelan Constitution and suggested the opposition should concentrate on activating the vote in the upcoming referendum on having people vote on some individual articles (The Constitution allows this only in one third of the articles proposed for the reform). I also suggested that Chavismo would find a way of stopping this since the main objective of the reform is Chavez’ indefinite reelection and polls suggest 65% of the people reject this particular aspect, but this does not mean they would necessarily vote against the whole reform.

Well, no sooner had I said this, when today Deputy Carlos Escarra, said that Art. 344 of the Constitution does not say, as interpreted by many, that 5% of the people can sign a petition to ask for the article by article vote, but the proponent of the reform has to include it in the proposal. Since Chavez did not propose it, then, according to Escarra, the only recourse the opposition has is to propose an alternate project to modify the Constitution.

I am no lawyer, but I don’t buy it. There are too many inconsistencies with that interpretation. Let’s review the issue. Below is the article literally translated by me (minus some fluff such as both genders being included and the definition of registered voters):

Article
344. The project for Constitutional Reform approved by the National
Assembly will be submitted to a referendum within thirty days following its
approval. The referendum will pronounce itself as a whole over the reform, but up
to a third could be voted separately, if it thus approved by a
number no less than one third of the National Assembly or if in the
initiative of the reform it had been requested by the President or
by a number of no less than five percent of registered votes.

Let’s concentrate on the second sentence. It says that the…”referendum will pronounce itself as a whole over the reform, but up to a third could be voted separately, if

it is thus approved by a number of no less than one third of the National Assembly….

or if if in the initiative of the reform it had been requested by the President…

or by a number of no less than five per cent of registered voters.

Now, in legalese, the subject of all that above is the referendum, which will be voted as a whole, unless one of three conditions occur.

The Assembly has not agreed to it, Chavez did not request, but…

a number of no less than 5% of registered voters can request it.

It does not say in my mind, that as Escarra suggests, when the initiative had been made by popular request…5% of the people can request an article by article vote.

Why? because it would appear to me that the two are unrelated. Art. 342 of the Constitution is the one that establishes that 15% (not 5%!) of the people can request a Constitutional reform. Escarra’s interpretation would say that Chavez can request it as part of his proposal that it be voted article by article, but the people can not include it in their proposal but instead have to do another petition, which requires only one third of the original 15%. Does not seem logical to me

This would thus appear to be inconsistent.

But it does reveal how bad the 2000 Constitution is due to the fact that it was rushed. For example, it establishes that one third of the article can be voted on individually. What happens if more than one group of 5% of the population asks for “their” one third of the article to be voted on individually? You can have three or four petitions like that. What do you do then?

One of the members of the Board of the Electoral Board agrees with this interpretation and will propose the CNE that it be allowed.

Thus, I reiterate that the opposition should concentrate in formulating and gathering a petition that should include a small number of articles to vote on individually. I would include only the one about the indefinite reelection, the one on private property and any other article that can be explained to people in very simple terms.

The Venezuelan Government called the New York Times  “one of the mediatic arms of George Bush’s Government” and called its Editorial “Mr. Chavez’ Power Grab” on the Chavez Government part of “an attack against democratic Governments, who in their feeling, attempts against its hegemonic interests”.

In the opinion of Minister William Lara, the Editorial which criticized the Constitutional reforms because they “undermine Venezuelan democracy”, are evidence that the attacks by that newspaper against the Chavez Government imply that the State Department is moving its pieces to attempt against Venezuela’s democracy.

Lara went even further saying this editorial was part of the US’s policy of getting involved in the internal affairs of Venezuela.

There you have it, the almighty NYT may be violating Venezuela’s laws. What next? Blocking it’s IP? Banning its reporter from the country? Fining the paper? Forcing it to register?

I think that at least Simon should avoid visiting any of the country’s creeks…you never know…

(Has Lara seen the picture above? They guy that took it should be jailed, no? We should have a caption contest, my choice :”The people’s revenge (Thanks M.))

Today, members of Primero Justicia went to the Electoral Board to request that the vote on the referendum to approve Constitutional change be a vote on each article of the reform, using Art. 344 of the current Constitution which says:

Art­culo 344. El proyecto de reforma constitucional aprobado por la Asamblea Nacional se sometera a referendo dentro de los treinta di­as siguientes a su sancion. El referendo se pronunciara en conjunto sobre la reforma, pero podra votarse separadamente hasta una tercera parte de ella, si asi­ lo aprobara un numero no menor de una tercera parte de la Asamblea Nacional o si en la iniciativa de reforma asi­ lo hubiere solicitado el Presidente o Presidenta de la Republica o un numero no menor del cinco por ciento de los electores inscritos o electoras inscritas en el registro civil y electoral.

or

Article 344. The project for Constitutional Reform approved by the National Assembly will be submitted to a referendum within thirty days of its approval. The referendum will pronounce itself over the reform, but up to a third of it could be voted separately, if it were approved by a number no less than one third of the National Assembly or if in the initiative of the reform it had been requested by the President or requested by a number of no less than five percent of registered votes.

(The one third above means that only up to one third of the article can be voted individually)

As cleverly noted by Virginia in the comments a few days ago, five percent is less than the number of dollars in the suitcase of the Maletagate, some 790,000 voters. This seems quite easy to achieve, those blacklisted by the Government already, like yours truly, could care less about being blacklisted a second time.

Since the Chavismo only cares about Chavez’s indefinite reelection in the proposed reform, they would fight this issue to death, proving their undemocratic colors. Thus, it is my opinion that the opposition should concentrate for now on this issue: Formally creating the petition required to obtain the signatures from the CNE and gathering the signatures. The CNE has to approve both what question is asked and how the signatures would be gathered, I would initiate this request now, even before the National Assembly had conducted its second and third approvals of the proposed reform. Since the proposal has 33 articles, I would just pick the two or three most important to the autocrat/Dictator and keep it very simple for the people to decide.

If this were to be done, Chavismo would panic. They know that 65% of the population opposes the indefinite reelection and they need the new Constitution approved fast so that Chavez can intervene the economy using the Enabling Bill before the middle of July of next year. Thus, this strategy puts them on the spot and God only knows what legal and undemocratic trick they will pull out of their sleeve to stop the possibility of an article by article vote.

Chavismo and the Constitutional coup have to be stopped, the only strategy at this time should be the steps required for gathering this petition.

Let Emperor Hugo show how naked he is!

The Constitutional coup that is being perpetrated on Venezuela’s democracy by Hugo Chavez and his cohorts continued in earnest today, as the farcical and fraudulent change of the country’s magna carta reached absurd levels.

Just as a remainder here are the steps followed by the autocracy so far in this process, including today’s developments:

1) Naming of a Constitutional Reform Commission with no legal basis to draft the changes without any discussion with anyone outside.

2) Chavez received the draft and still in secret worked on the document to remove and add his whims and desires without any consultation.

3) Chavez announced his proposed reform without discussing it with the commission desribeed on point 1). This happened one week ago.

4) The changes include modifications of the fundamental principles of the Constitution, which would require a Constituent Assembly composed of members directly elected by the people. Instead, Chavez proposes the National Assembly, 100% pro-Chavez modify the Constitution, which is only valid if the fundamental principles are not affected.

5) Today the National Assembly continued the fraudulent process, approving all of the proposed changes on their first discussion without any debate. Not one comma was changed. Even the basic principles of modifying laws were not followed. Yes, there were speeches, but none of the discussed the reasons for the changes, their contradictions or even their meaning. This despite the poor quality of the text handed out by the President.

6) A time limit of two months was imposed for the approval of the Constitution, despite the protest of pro-Chavez groups. There can be no time limit imposed on such an important change.

This is fraudulent, illegal and represents the completion of Chavez’ coup d’etat on the country and its laws under the guise of following some “democratic” steps. What Hugo Chavez did not achieve in 1992 with weapons and blood, he has now accomplished by deceit and treachery.

Watch now how Chavismo stops any possibility of voting on each new article of the Constitution at the upcoming referendum to approve the Constitution. If it were done this way, the only change that really matters to Chavismo, the perpetuation of Dictator Hugo Chavez in power with his indefinite reelection would never be approved by the Venezuelan people.

67%How Addicted to Blogging Are You?

Mingle² – Dating Site

Jeez, I can’t believe I may be about to defend Hugo Chavez. You see, Peruvian newspaper El Expreso accused Chavez today of taking advantage of the Peruvian earthquake tragedy to distribute cans of tuna like the shown below, with a picture of Peruvian opposition leader Ollanta Humala and one of Hugo Chavez, with the text:

“In the face of looting, blockades, desperation and chaos. Solidarity with our countrymen”

“In the face of the natural disaster that shook Peru and particularly our region Ica, the Nationalist Peruvian Party with our leader Ollanta is present among you, together with our sister Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, whose President is our brother Hugo Chavez, because the Peruvian Government acts in an inefficient, slow and heartless manner, without caring for the pain of the victims and leaving them at the will of hunger, thirst and hoodlums”

To me the language sounds very local, maybe it was financed by Hugo and that is why he is mentioned, but this sounds too specific and provincial to make me believe this came and originated from Venezuela.

Looking through the proposed Constitutional Reform, one of the most remarkable things is how irrelevant what is being proposed is for the average Venezuelan. How little the proposals have to do with the most important problems facing Venezuelans today. How irrelevant the whole exercise is going to be.

When Venezuelans are asked what their main problems are, they mention crime, employment and inflation in that particular order. Neither of these is tackled even indirectly, in the new proposed Constitution. If anything, one could say that inflation may be endangered by removing the independence of the Venezuelan Central Bank as it gives Chavez direct control over the country’s money supply and international reserves.

People always talk about how Chavez talks to the people and communicates with them. But does the average Venezuelan really care about the our sovereignty over the Caribbean Sea? Unless Chavez has plans to walk on water between his artificial islands, it would appear basically irrelevant.

Or do they really care about “the geo-human cells of the territory”, which will define a new vaporous concept labeled by Chavez as the “commune”? As Chavez’ old Miniser of the Interior would say about ONG’s, what do you eat those things with?

Or how about taking so much time and space in the proposal for the capital city of Caracas, which they are supposed to refer from now on as Bolivar’s crib or the more arcane “Queen of the Guaraira Repano” the name given to the Avila mountain by the Indians? In fact, my own personal poll shows that among educated Venezuelans, less than half admitted knowing what the term referred to before Chavez’ speech.

Or can the average Venezuelan really give a damn about the fact that the proposal will return Government financing for political parties, something Chavez himself removed from his 2000 Constitution and is now magnanimously returning because he now controls everything and can thus give this morsel away.? But wait, Chavistas know Chavez’ new political party PSUV is the only game in town and there will be plenty of money for its activities, so only opposition voters could believe this is a positive, But the latter just cringe at the idea of Chavez forever, so forget their votes!

And then of course is that proposed beauty of reducing the work day to six hours, as if the country was immersed in a productivity binge rather than the other way around. Or the fact that there is now a law forbidding the firing of anyone. So there is no chance the private sector will go on a hiring spree to compensate for the six hour day. More likely, those employed will now benefit from the overtime pay, costs will go up and only in the public sector will more people be hired to compensate for it. Thus, we can expect the number of public workers to increase from three to four million short trem, making a full sixth of the country’s population under the employment of an already inefficient Government. This is a sure recipe for failure and bankruptcy of our beloved country as the unproductive sector of the economy, i.e. the public sector, will draw most of the resources guaranteeing that when the price of oil comes down, there will be no money left for anything else.

And then what does the average Venezuelan, who owns very little personal property, care about the new and improved multiple definitions of property from public to social, from mixed to collective or the more sophisticated refinements of direct social property and indirect social property? And yes, there will be “private” property restricted to legitimately obtained goods, which can be easily be expropriated by the Government just to make sure you behave.

How does all this really affect the average Venezuelan who is more concerned with where the next meal is going to come from, that he or she may be mugged when he/she gets to the barrio and where the money will come to pay for the medicine the doctor ordered be taken?

But as prices go up daily, food shortages become the rule of the day and the much promised house/job/land is always given to your activist relative and not to you, you come to the end of the proposal and see that Chavez may be reelected indefinitely under the proposed Constitutional changes.

At least one thing guarantees that nothing, absolutely nothing, will change: The autocrat will be around forever, mismanaging, lying and promising the world to everyone.

After all, things could change for the worse, so more of the same may even give the average Venezuelan a sense of relief.

And who knows, Chavez may even promise that he will walk on the water between his artificial islands, in which case there will actually be two things in the Constitutional proposal that will at least keep the people entertained in the next few years.

Today President Hugo Chavez was his usual self in his Sunday variety show, always coming up with surprises to entertain the audience, threaten them and make everyone wonder about his sanity:

Act I: On the subject of why he needed so many new weapons, he said they are need for the guerrilla war against the US, including the recently acquired sniper guns with nightvision. Said Chavez: “Any American that goes up a creek, pum, pum, we shoot him”. I guess Eva has been warned! But more importantly, I wished he had explained to us the use of submarines or jet fighters in a guerrilla war, since he recently acquired so many of them.

Act II: On the subject of Maletagate, Chavez said that neither he, nor President Kirchner had to give any explanation on the matter of the US$ 800,000 brought by the now missing Guido Antonini. He blamed the whole scandal on the US once again, but in Argentina, the file on the case being investigated in Buenos Aires says that the order to send the money in the Enarsa plane with Antonini came from Chavez himself and was given at a lunch the day before!

Act III: Chavez let his imagination run. Since he can’t solve the basic problems of the country, like poverty, malnutrition, crime, the homeless and the like, he then escaped into his own Harry Potter fantasy world. He said he was going to build artificial islands all over the Caribbean sea to protect the 760,000 squared meters Venezuela had to the North and that nobody had ever cared about. He said these cities would eventually grow and be inhabited by thousands. (Gulags?)

Act IV: As his very special guest he had soccer player Maradona on the variety show. Maradona, a one time Argentinean soccer star and more recent drug addict, was greeted by Chavez as a great man. What a disgraceful example to Venezuela’s youth this man represents!

And thus another week of the bizarro/normal Chavez show went by leaving all Venezuelans eager to see what the autocrat may come up with for his next variety show.