Archive for the 'Venezuela' Category

With 77% of the vote counted Garcia has 9.9% lead in Peruvian election

June 4, 2006

With 77% of the vote counted, ONPE, the Peruvian Electoral Board is saying that Allan Garcia is leading Ollanta Humala by 55.48% to 44.58% according to one of my favorite Peruvian bloggers Inka. You have to love bloggers, Inka gave us the story before the conventional news sources!

A Latin Backlash from the Washington Post

June 4, 2006

I was away at a company training course outisde Caracas, at a beautiful place with no Internet connection, this weekend and just as I was about to post this Editorial from the Washington Post in its entirety, Pedro sends its text, indicating I had the right idea. It speaks for itself:

A Latin Backlash from the Washington Post

Hugo Chavez has managed to replace George W. Bush as the imperialist specter.

For years Hugo Chavez’s steady dismantlement of Venezuela’s democracy and
his embrace of dictators and terrorists around the world — from Fidel
Castro to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — prompted next to no reaction from
Latin America’s democratic governments. The silence was shameful,
partly because Venezuela’s former leaders fought for human rights in
countries such as Chile, Peru and Argentina during the 1980s and ’90s,
but also because the quiet was in part purchased by Mr. Chavez, who
lavished subsidized oil and lucrative trade deals on governments around
the region.

Now at last, Mr. Chavez is the object of a growing
backlash from leaders around Latin America — from Brazil, Peru,
Colombia, Mexico and Nicaragua, among other countries. In part, the
politicians are responding to foolish overreaching by Mr. Chavez, who
has been busy trying to turn Bolivia into a satellite state while
suggesting he has similar plans for much of the rest of the continent.
Latin Americans don’t like imperialism, whether it comes from
Washington or Caracas. And even leftist leaders, like those who rule in
Brazil and elsewhere in South America, find it hard to imagine
themselves prospering in a Venezuela-led economic bloc that includes
Cuba but shuns the United States.

The other reason Latins have
found their anti-Chavez tongues is delightfully pragmatic: It’s a
proven vote-getter. Elections are taking place or are on the way in a
host of Central and South American countries — and politicians in most
of them are finding that linking their opponents to Venezuela’s
demagogue works wonders. The biggest beneficiary may be Peru’s Alan
Garcia, who is the front-runner in Sunday’s presidential election
runoff. Mr. Garcia is himself a leftist populist who two decades ago
presided over one of the most disastrously incompetent governments in
Peruvian history. But his opponent, a former military coup-plotter
named Ollanta Humala, has been endorsed by Mr. Chavez, and Mr. Garcia
has focused his campaign on that point, saying only he can prevent Peru
from becoming “a colony of Venezuela.” It’s a logical strategy: Mr.
Chavez’s approval rating in Peru is 17 percent.<!–
D(["mb","

\n

In Mexico,\ncommentators concluded several months ago that the poll lead of leftist\nAndres Manuel Lopez Obrador in July\’s presidential election could not\nbe overcome. But that was before Mr. Lopez Obrador\’s right-wing\nchallenger, Felipe Calderon, began running television advertisements\nconnecting Mr. Chavez to his opponent; the polls now show that Mr.\nCalderon has taken the lead. In neighboring Nicaragua, Sandinista\nleader and presidential candidate Daniel Ortega is also suffering from\nMr. Chavez\’s poisoned kiss.

\n

The Bush administration, which has\nhaplessly allowed Mr. Chavez to exploit the U.S. president as a\npolitical foil for years, has hit on just the right response as it has\nwatched Peruvians and Mexicans turn the tables on the Venezuelan: It\nhas kept quiet. The sight of Latin Americans rising up in defense of\ndemocratic values, and against the attempt of a would-be regional\nhegemonist to subvert them, is inspiring — and it requires nothing\nfrom Washington save discreet applause.

\n\n\n

© 2006 The Washington Post Company

\n\n\n

“,0]
);
D([“ce”]);

//–>

In Mexico,
commentators concluded several months ago that the poll lead of leftist
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in July’s presidential election could not
be overcome. But that was before Mr. Lopez Obrador’s right-wing
challenger, Felipe Calderon, began running television advertisements
connecting Mr. Chavez to his opponent; the polls now show that Mr.
Calderon has taken the lead. In neighboring Nicaragua, Sandinista
leader and presidential candidate Daniel Ortega is also suffering from
Mr. Chavez’s poisoned kiss.

The Bush administration, which has
haplessly allowed Mr. Chavez to exploit the U.S. president as a
political foil for years, has hit on just the right response as it has
watched Peruvians and Mexicans turn the tables on the Venezuelan: It
has kept quiet. The sight of Latin Americans rising up in defense of
democratic values, and against the attempt of a would-be regional
hegemonist to subvert them, is inspiring — and it requires nothing
from Washington save discreet applause.

Chavista pollster introduces confusion in Peru elections

June 4, 2006

Before we know the final results in Peru, variuous media sources are reporting that none other than our “friendly” “North American” pollster North American Research is reporting that Humala won. Of course, the readers of this blog, Daniel’s Blog, Alek’s blog or Quico’s blog, know quite well that Noth American Research is a Venezuelan company owned by Julio Makarem owner of Petrotulsa, a big PDVSA “coop” contractor, as well as being the man who accused your bloggers of being funded by the US. In a widely distributed ad in Caracas’ newspaper Ultimas Noticias, Macarnen charged bloggers with being part a conspiracy funded by who knows who and proceeded to defend the revolution and its social programs. Later, Magistrate Velasquez Alvaray, the one charged with being a crook by the Chavez Government, suggested that Makarem was on of the financiers of the “Chavismo without Chavez” movement, which he called Capitalism of the XXIst. Century.

Today some stupid news sources actually are saying that an exit poll by North American Research says Humala won. Last Friday NOOR claimed to have made a poll saying Humala would win.

Well, maybe he will, but I can assure you, North American Opinion Resaerch has as much of a scientific idea about the outcome as I do. This is probably backed by the Venezuelan Government to create confusion. A Chavista blog that shall remain nameless, is even calling the company a North American polling company. How dishonest can you get? They known exactly who they are.

Shame on all of them!

The surprising pro-Uribe vote of Colombians in Venezuela

June 2, 2006

I was a little surprised by the votes of Colombians that live in
Venezuela in the Colombian Presidential election. The profile of
Colombian immigrants is not that of the Venezuelan population at large,
thus you would expect the vote to be less pro-Uribe than Colombia’s
numbers.

The opposite was true. Uribe got over 95% in Puerto la Cruz and Merida,
over 85% in Puerto Ordaz, 77% in Tachira, Valencia and Barinas. In
Caracas in middle class Baruta he got 81.6%, while in Chavez’ stronghold
Catia, he got 66.7%. In Catia, Chavistas actually tried to get the vote
out against Uribe. All the voting centers had more pro-Uribe votes that
the National vote in Colombia which gave Uribe the victory with 62% of
the vote.

Different socio-cultural patterns or do Colombians simply count the
votes correctly? Or both?

Another poor job by the NYT on Venezuela and its heavy crudes

June 1, 2006

I find it remarkable that this type of article gets by the New York Times Editors. besides the many factual errors like production levels, area and the like, there is the fact that indeed Venezuela may have amazing reserves of heavy crudes, but funny how no mention is made of the Alberta tar sands, which may not have the reserves of the Venezuelan ones, but it may only be a factor of two off.

Business people are not brain dead. When they decide to go somewhere and invest, they run numbers, do risk analysis, then models and that determines where they will invest. So compare the conditions in Venezuela and Canada, which the people who wrote the NYT article appear to have no clue about neither of them, and you get:

Venezuela:

Breach of contracts.
No rule of Law.
PDVSA has to own at leats 60%
33% royalties
50% income tax
Breakeven point ~$25 per barrel

Canada:

Rule of Law
You may own 100% of the production company
Royalties of 1% until revenues generated are equal to investment, 16.6% after that
24-28% income taxes.
Breakeven point ~$12 per barrel

Yes, costs in Venezuela are somewhat lower, lower labor costs, fewer enviromental regulations, but the difference is simply not worth it. That is the reason why Canada’s heavy crude production is already twice the Venezuelan one and growing, while Venezuela’s is not epexcted to increase in the next two years.

Chavez’ brainless diplomacy at the OPEC meeting inauguration

June 1, 2006


Today
at the opening ceremony of the OPEC meeting in Caracas, Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez, remembered
a letter
written to him, and his reply to it, by his “friend” the
terrorist Carlos
“The Jackal”
, ,who is serving a lifetime sentence in a French
prison for killing three people in Paris, including two secret service agents.

This was a touching and brainless remembrance by our President in front of the
OPEC delegates, given that Carlos “The Jackal” is infamous for, among
many terrorists acts, the kidnapping
the 12 Ministers of OPEC
, holding 70 people hostage and killing the
security detail at OPEC’s Vienna’s headquarters. Reportedly he got paid one
million dollars for this action by none other than Libya’s President Gaddafi.

What’s next, toasting Bin Laden at the dinner which closes the event? Anything is
possible in the mindless ways of Hugo Chavez.

A heartbreaking video of hunger and infant deaths in Venezuela

June 1, 2006

I know most of you don’t speak Spanish, but these are images of a town in Zulia where 30 kids die monthly, where hunger and malnutrition are the rule of the day, while Chavez travels giving away the country’s money to promote himself. Maybe it is better you don’t understand, it is simply heartbreaking.

Another sweet deal for the financial system: The Revolution marches on!

May 31, 2006


You have
to wonder about this Government and the financial system. So much ideology,
attacks on the oligarchs and the rich, but the Venezuelan banking system has
made money hand over fist ever since the ignorant Colonel became President. I have
outlined in these pages how the Venezuelan financial system has benefited from
so many Government operations and gifts that simply make no sense. Yes, they are stuck with
absurd amounts of Government paper, but they keep making money as the boats
sinks.

The latest
measure this week was for the Central Bank
to increase the amount of foreign currency the banks may have from 15% of their
equity to 30%. So, in the midst of exchange controls, now all of a sudden banks
can increase their net dollar position by a factor of two!. Not even in the horrible times of the
IVth. Republic did this limit go above 15%, but now the revolutionaries double
it! Your everyday Venezuelan can’t protect himself or herself from devaluation,
but banks are allowed to increase their protection. What gives?

The
ostensible explanation given by Government officials is that this will allow
the Government to reduce the excess monetary liquidity without having the
Central Bank, which is already in the red and in deep trouble, issue more CD’s.
Well, as we say in the vernacular, this
explanation is simply “mierda de toro”.

You see,
banks have no access to CADIVI or exchange-controlled dollars, thus, if they want
to purchase dollars, they have to go to the parallel market or the Argentinean
bond market, controlled by the Government. In either of these, the Bolivars they pay for the dollars don’t
get sterilized or disappear from the money supply, but they simply go back into
the system. This only happens when you go through the Central Bank. In the swap
market the Bolivars go to whoever is selling the dollars. In the case of the Argentinean
bonds, they go to Fonden which in this way gets bolivars, since it only got
dollars when it was funded from the “excess” reserves taken away from the Central
Bank. The only reason Fonden wants to have Bolivars is to spend them, so the
Bolivars go back into the monetary liquidity very fast.

Thus, the
only likely mechanism for the banks to go from 15% to 30% of their equity in
foreign currency is to buy Argentinean bonds or buy Venezuelan Government bonds
directly from the Government whenever it offers one of those Bs/US$ sweet
deals.

And that
is probably where the explanation lays. In the last few weeks emerging bond
markets have been jittery and both Argentinean and Venezuelan Government bonds
have been very volatile. By “sweetening” the deal for the banks, they will be
more amenable to take the risk of acquiring foreign currency to protect their
equity via these bonds. Thus, the Government with this new measure has simply
guaranteed that they can place the US$ 600 million in Argentinean bonds it
still has in stock or any new Bs./US$ bond they may want to issue in the near
future.

Thus, the revolution
ain’t got any principles my friends and is willing to let the oligarchic capitalists
make a bundle if it fits their goals. The average Venezuelan can go screw his
or herself and remain unprotected from any devaluation, which of course will
make them poorer, but Chavez and the politicians simply don’t care. Politics above all!

Tale of the two realities of Venezuela

May 31, 2006

A friend pointed out these two contradictory headlines next to each other in today’s page A6 of El Nacional, that show the two realities Venezuelans are living under Chavez, mainly due to his own personal ambitions. On the left, the pro-Chavez Governor of Apure state complains that there are 750 Kms. of his state where there is no protection. Right next to it, our esteemed Minister of Defense Maniglia proudly announces that Venezuela is sending both military personnel and equipment to Bolivia.

As my mother says: Charity begins at home. I guess the corolary is: Not in an autocracy

Drei wanderer gegen Chavez

May 31, 2006


The above was the headline
of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in its coverage of the walk by Alek Boyd and
Patricia Wegenenast y Mohamad Merhi from Koblenz
to Brussels calling for clean elections in Venezuela. You
can follow the progress of the walk in
this site
expressly created for the walk. The description of the blog says
it all “For a pluralistic Venezuela,
with citizens free to elect their expectations for a better future”. For German
speakers you can also follow it in Patricia’s
blog
or the German version of Una Venezuela, Ein Venezuela. They will arrive in
Brussels
tomorrow where they will meet with European Union officials.

Please drop by and give them your moral support for this important
effort to raise awareness about our problems. As you will see in the pictures,
it is not easy walking 40 Kms. a day.

Thanks to Alek, Patricia and Mohamad for their effort!