The Devil's Excrement

Have been following the Iraqi vote all day via the regular press, but it easier looking at Instapundit, which has a digest of everything, including that CNN says 75% of the people voted (may be only 60% according to others, but still huge by all estiamtes) and Arab countries are a little bit concerned. How did the press get this story SO wrong? It’s the usual, good for the Iraqi people! Found this cartoon expressed the whole thing so well:

The reality that Venezuela is an urban country has begun to hit the Government, but so far it is not clear to me that they are getting the message. As agricultural land has been intervened by the Government people have also begun invading private lands and buildings, looking for what thy really need: a home. The crisis is particularly severe in Carabobo state, where the Governor has been quite lax in allowing people to take over land and buildings, more so after saying that he would not throw the police at the people. But as this article in today’s El Universal tell us; only in one municipality in Carabobo, twenty plots of lands have been invaded, including land owned by an orphanage, a plot of land in a middle class neighborhood and the La Guacamaya area where the Government ahs now provided trailers to live in.

The real problem is not only that people live in the cities, but that there has been very little housing built in the last six years.  The number of new housing units built in Venezuela in the last 30 years has always been less than needed, but the Chávez Government has been particularly ineffective at this. During the first two or three years of his Government Chavez had the right people in the institutions in charge of urban planning and housing. People who had devoted all their lives to studying the problem carefully and finally had gotten to a position of power. But slowly the Government got rid of them, for reasons that I don’t know in detail.

This group of people had a study that included costs and estimates of how long it would take to reduce housing shortages in Venezuela by devoting huge government resources to the problem, using construction to jump start the economy. If I recall the numbers correctly, they were talking about US$ 60 billion and ten years to carry out the project. Instead in the first two years of Chavez’ Government, a few housing projects were built in what was said disorganized manner. I showed a graph in March of last year which shows how dramatic has been the drop in new housing units being built in the last few years.

Besides Carabobo, the other region being hit by invasions is the so called “Altos Mirandinos” area. This is a region right outside Caracas to the South West along the Pan-American Highway, where a bunch of “dormitory” cities have sprung up. There are three municipalities there in the hands of both anti-Chávez and pro-Chávez Mayors. But they are all acting in very similar fashion, as it has become a security problem for all of them, as people feel threatened by the invaders in their communities.

That this is the problem is nothing new, in 1968 Rafael Caldera promised he would build 100,000 housing units a year. (He was close one year). De Soto has studied this problem well, together with that of not having title to land and homes. This is where I think the Government should concentrate. In fact, I think this is something the opposition should pick up on and run with it, as I have said before. Tell the Government to start delaying and give away all Government lands before June, tell the Government to give title to all municipal lands by June. Tell the Government to propose a housing program or grab the existing ones and ask the Government get going as soon as possible. Put a deadline. This is a real issue, not Chavez’ dream of what Barinas was like in the 60’s. Do it, because soon the Chavez Government might pick up on it and do it themselves! Knowing both of them, maybe neither will notice it!

(Posted lots of pictures in the orchids section today, enjoy and relax!)

The reality that Venezuela is an urban country has begun to hit the Government, but so far it is not clear to me that they are getting the message. As agricultural land has been intervened by the Government people have also begun invading private lands and buildings, looking for what thy really need: a home. The crisis is particularly severe in Carabobo state, where the Governor has been quite lax in allowing people to take over land and buildings, more so after saying that he would not throw the police at the people. But as this article in today’s El Universal tell us; only in one municipality in Carabobo, twenty plots of lands have been invaded, including land owned by an orphanage, a plot of land in a middle class neighborhood and the La Guacamaya area where the Government ahs now provided trailers to live in.

The real problem is not only that people live in the cities, but that there has been very little housing built in the last six years.  The number of new housing units built in Venezuela in the last 30 years has always been less than needed, but the Chávez Government has been particularly ineffective at this. During the first two or three years of his Government Chavez had the right people in the institutions in charge of urban planning and housing. People who had devoted all their lives to studying the problem carefully and finally had gotten to a position of power. But slowly the Government got rid of them, for reasons that I don’t know in detail.

This group of people had a study that included costs and estimates of how long it would take to reduce housing shortages in Venezuela by devoting huge government resources to the problem, using construction to jump start the economy. If I recall the numbers correctly, they were talking about US$ 60 billion and ten years to carry out the project. Instead in the first two years of Chavez’ Government, a few housing projects were built in what was said disorganized manner. I showed a graph in March of last year which shows how dramatic has been the drop in new housing units being built in the last few years.

Besides Carabobo, the other region being hit by invasions is the so called “Altos Mirandinos” area. This is a region right outside Caracas to the South West along the Pan-American Highway, where a bunch of “dormitory” cities have sprung up. There are three municipalities there in the hands of both anti-Chávez and pro-Chávez Mayors. But they are all acting in very similar fashion, as it has become a security problem for all of them, as people feel threatened by the invaders in their communities.

That this is the problem is nothing new, in 1968 Rafael Caldera promised he would build 100,000 housing units a year. (He was close one year). De Soto has studied this problem well, together with that of not having title to land and homes. This is where I think the Government should concentrate. In fact, I think this is something the opposition should pick up on and run with it, as I have said before. Tell the Government to start delaying and give away all Government lands before June, tell the Government to give title to all municipal lands by June. Tell the Government to propose a housing program or grab the existing ones and ask the Government get going as soon as possible. Put a deadline. This is a real issue, not Chavez’ dream of what Barinas was like in the 60’s. Do it, because soon the Chavez Government might pick up on it and do it themselves! Knowing both of them, maybe neither will notice it!

(Posted lots of pictures in the orchids section today, enjoy and relax!)

Good article in Analitica by Trino Marquez

One dollar by Trino Márquez

When Cayo Caesar Augustus Germanico, better known as Calígula, designated his horse as Consul, he did it with the express intention of degrading the Roman Senate, along with the political class that had sunk together with the Emperor, in the marsh of corruption and the immorality.  The purest and simple scorn was what that mentally weak personality, turned tyrant, distilled.  In the modern world “emperors” like Jean Beadle Bokassa or Haile Salassie, lacked the needed insolence to reach the extremes of Caligula, even if they approached him.  Bocassa did not have enough designating himself lifetime President of the Centro-African Republic, but in 1976 he proclaimed himself “Emperor”, surrounded by pomp that hit in the face one of the most miserable people in the world. Salassie, King of Kings of Ethiopia, used to have fun throwing succulent stakes at his tigers, while his people died of hunger. Each despot has a particular style of demonstrating his absolute disdain for his fellow men. Presidents elected via popular vote, and obligated by circumstances to meet in electoral contests every once in a while, also have their style which identifies them.

The rally last Sunday in Avenida Bolivar was the postmodern equivalent of the designation of Caligula’s horse as Consul. It is no longer enough to force public institutions to submit themselves to the orders of the Chief of State. It is not sufficient to give them orders, via the media, to the President of the Supreme Court or the Attorney General, or to place in the Electoral Board four unconditionals to the “process”. In the new phase of the pretty revolution the President of the Republic feels obligated to show the leftists of the world, especially those in Latin America, that he is capable of laughing, up to the point of ridicule, of the President of the US and his Secretary of State, that illiterate called Condoleezza Rice. 

The mocking of Mrs. Rice did not have the touch of humor and irony that the great statesmen usually exhibit.  Winston Churchill was famous by the whip that he unloaded on his adversaries.  Caustic language that perforated the skin of the enemy, but maintained the respect. With the ladies, not even with the petal of a rose. He would trash Hitler up to the point of turning him into nothing; however, he would not even attack that mass murderer at the personal level. He did not do it for consideration with that reincarnation of evil, but for respect to the audience meeting at the Parliament and the British people that would listen to him on the radio. What Chavez did with Mrs. Rice is not so much an affront to a lady that occupies a high position in a foreign country, but an insult to the intelligence and dignity of Venezuelan women. Machismo, bragging and the militaristic style of Chávez’ words do not offend the Foreign Minister of the most powerful nature of the world. Eagles do not hunt flies. But it does demonstrate the decomposition of power in Venezuela and the handing over and submission of the institutions to a personalistic President who assumes himself to be above the laws, the institutions, morals and good manners.

Placing himself in that plane of superiority he launches his one dollar bet to Bush: Let’s see who stays more time governing, challenging the US President. People, in fact, think Chavez will stay more time at the Miraflores Palace than Bush at the White House. What the man from Barinas should not forget is that since 1779, every four years in the country from the north there has been a transmission of power in peaceful form, In the US there has never been a military coup, a coup attempt, a scare that has placed in danger constitutional continuity. The same can not be said of Venezuela. Chavez himself was the main actor in one in 1992. We all hope that no early surprise will ever take place again here, but in this region of the world, one never knows.

Another interesting point is that Bush was reelected after being selected candidate in primary elections in which he had to face other candidates from the Republican Party, certainly weak ones, but who dared compete with the person that governs from the White House, We can not say the same here in Venezuela. Democracy is seriously wounded both in the country, as well as well as within MVR itself. As far as I know, Hugo Chavez already is the candidate of officialdom for the elections in December 2006, without any organization of democratic participation choosing him. The leader (caudillo) does not even concern himself with keeping appearances. He accuses Bush the tyrant, but he does not ask his party’s grassroots about any of the decisions he makes, least of all those related to the democratic dynamics of political parties, despite the fact that the Law of Parties and Political Participation obligates the selection of presidential candidates in elections that can not go beyond two levels in the selection of the candidate. He chose the candidates for Governor from MVR with the same dictatorial style. Even this type of legality irritates the sensitive skin of the autocrat.

The superiority of the advanced democracies consists in that their leaders are elected so that they fulfill, during a certain period of time, the responsibilities established in the Constitution. Those societies do not bet, nor look for a Messiah. They are happy to nominate Government officials that obey and make obey the laws. AD and COPEI sunk, because they thought power was eternal and that with it you could commit any folly.

Good article in Analitica by Trino Marquez

One dollar by Trino Márquez

When Cayo Caesar Augustus Germanico, better known as Calígula, designated his horse as Consul, he did it with the express intention of degrading the Roman Senate, along with the political class that had sunk together with the Emperor, in the marsh of corruption and the immorality.  The purest and simple scorn was what that mentally weak personality, turned tyrant, distilled.  In the modern world “emperors” like Jean Beadle Bokassa or Haile Salassie, lacked the needed insolence to reach the extremes of Caligula, even if they approached him.  Bocassa did not have enough designating himself lifetime President of the Centro-African Republic, but in 1976 he proclaimed himself “Emperor”, surrounded by pomp that hit in the face one of the most miserable people in the world. Salassie, King of Kings of Ethiopia, used to have fun throwing succulent stakes at his tigers, while his people died of hunger. Each despot has a particular style of demonstrating his absolute disdain for his fellow men. Presidents elected via popular vote, and obligated by circumstances to meet in electoral contests every once in a while, also have their style which identifies them.

The rally last Sunday in Avenida Bolivar was the postmodern equivalent of the designation of Caligula’s horse as Consul. It is no longer enough to force public institutions to submit themselves to the orders of the Chief of State. It is not sufficient to give them orders, via the media, to the President of the Supreme Court or the Attorney General, or to place in the Electoral Board four unconditionals to the “process”. In the new phase of the pretty revolution the President of the Republic feels obligated to show the leftists of the world, especially those in Latin America, that he is capable of laughing, up to the point of ridicule, of the President of the US and his Secretary of State, that illiterate called Condoleezza Rice. 

The mocking of Mrs. Rice did not have the touch of humor and irony that the great statesmen usually exhibit.  Winston Churchill was famous by the whip that he unloaded on his adversaries.  Caustic language that perforated the skin of the enemy, but maintained the respect. With the ladies, not even with the petal of a rose. He would trash Hitler up to the point of turning him into nothing; however, he would not even attack that mass murderer at the personal level. He did not do it for consideration with that reincarnation of evil, but for respect to the audience meeting at the Parliament and the British people that would listen to him on the radio. What Chavez did with Mrs. Rice is not so much an affront to a lady that occupies a high position in a foreign country, but an insult to the intelligence and dignity of Venezuelan women. Machismo, bragging and the militaristic style of Chávez’ words do not offend the Foreign Minister of the most powerful nature of the world. Eagles do not hunt flies. But it does demonstrate the decomposition of power in Venezuela and the handing over and submission of the institutions to a personalistic President who assumes himself to be above the laws, the institutions, morals and good manners.

Placing himself in that plane of superiority he launches his one dollar bet to Bush: Let’s see who stays more time governing, challenging the US President. People, in fact, think Chavez will stay more time at the Miraflores Palace than Bush at the White House. What the man from Barinas should not forget is that since 1779, every four years in the country from the north there has been a transmission of power in peaceful form, In the US there has never been a military coup, a coup attempt, a scare that has placed in danger constitutional continuity. The same can not be said of Venezuela. Chavez himself was the main actor in one in 1992. We all hope that no early surprise will ever take place again here, but in this region of the world, one never knows.

Another interesting point is that Bush was reelected after being selected candidate in primary elections in which he had to face other candidates from the Republican Party, certainly weak ones, but who dared compete with the person that governs from the White House, We can not say the same here in Venezuela. Democracy is seriously wounded both in the country, as well as well as within MVR itself. As far as I know, Hugo Chavez already is the candidate of officialdom for the elections in December 2006, without any organization of democratic participation choosing him. The leader (caudillo) does not even concern himself with keeping appearances. He accuses Bush the tyrant, but he does not ask his party’s grassroots about any of the decisions he makes, least of all those related to the democratic dynamics of political parties, despite the fact that the Law of Parties and Political Participation obligates the selection of presidential candidates in elections that can not go beyond two levels in the selection of the candidate. He chose the candidates for Governor from MVR with the same dictatorial style. Even this type of legality irritates the sensitive skin of the autocrat.

The superiority of the advanced democracies consists in that their leaders are elected so that they fulfill, during a certain period of time, the responsibilities established in the Constitution. Those societies do not bet, nor look for a Messiah. They are happy to nominate Government officials that obey and make obey the laws. AD and COPEI sunk, because they thought power was eternal and that with it you could commit any folly.

Only in Venezuela does the home of a reporter get raided by the police the day after the Human Rights Commission of the Organization of American States issues a precautionary measure ordering a Government to protect the same reporter.

But we have gotten used to such paradoxes in the revolution. Neither Venezuelan nor international law will stop the illegalities and abuses of the revolution against reporters or anyone else who dares challenge the “truth” according to the Government. Today it was the turn of Nuevo Pais reporter Patricia Poleo, whose home was raided by the investigative police by orders of Prosecutor Alejandro Castillo. Castillo has been after the reporter since the assassination of Prosecutor Danilo Anderson, since Poleo has been consistently exposing information which is leaked to her by sources close to the investigation.

Today’s search by the heavily armed cops was made to try to find evidence that would compromise those sources. Initially, the cops tried to take “evidence” independent of whether it had to do or not with the Anderson case, but her lawyers stopped them form taking anything unrelated. In any case, the law in Venezuela protects sources and the raid was illegal given that its only objective was to find out who Poleo’s sources are.

Curiously, Poleo mentions in her column today that on January 10^th. she was called to testify by the same prosecutor, because her information was “too precise”. According to Poleo in that same column, there are internal conflicts within the police from day one, due to the murders of Antonio Castillo and Juan Carlos Sanchez and the irregular way in which the Guevara brothers were detained.

Poleo says that the cops also got mad at the hero treatment given to the murdered prosecutor, given what they knew about his illegal activities blackmailing those charged with rebellion for going to the Presidential Palace on April 12^th. 2002. Poleo clearly has very good sources close to the investigation, in today’s column she even gives the telephone numbers of those people called, using Antonio Lopez’ telephone, after he had been killed. Most of the numbers are Cuban telephone numbers.

Poleo has been harassed repeatedly by the Chavez Government, with the OAS ordering precautionary measures for her protection a total of four times. Obviously the Chavez Government has never complied with these requests. Another bad day for democracy.

Ten days ago, S&P cut Venezuela’s debt rating to selective default over a missing debt payment on the so called oil warrants issued in 1990 with the PAR and DCB bonds, as reported here in this blog. The Government apparently was taken by surprise by the downgrade as nobody seemed to remember that it had to be made. Some blamed the new Minister of Finance, but in reality, the payment was due October 31^st. way before Minister Merentes took the position. Despite this, Merentes blamed PDVSA, saying the company had not been able to provide the data required in order to calculate what the amount of the payment should be.

At the time, the Government said that S&P rushed to downgrade the country and that Venezuela was ready to pay the roughly US$ 30 million due and would create a trust at the payment agency with that amount until it had calculated how much money needed to be paid for each warrant. It also said it would pay interest on the money owed when paid.

Well, today the Government said that its preliminary calculation indicates that no payment needs to be made. According to the Ministry of Finance, no payment needs to be made because the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket for the period was below that of the reference price established by the original prospectus of the Brady bonds. The Government claims that S&P and others made the mistake of using the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket without subtracting shipping and insurance from it. Others say that S&P is right and the Government does owe the money.

In the end, this is simply creating unnecessary confusion in the country’s debt markets and projecting an image of disorganization that is not good for the country. Until the issue is cleared up, it will likely block the country from tapping international markets. The 2005 budget includes issuing debt in US currency and euros.

Ten days ago, S&P cut Venezuela’s debt rating to selective default over a missing debt payment on the so called oil warrants issued in 1990 with the PAR and DCB bonds, as reported here in this blog. The Government apparently was taken by surprise by the downgrade as nobody seemed to remember that it had to be made. Some blamed the new Minister of Finance, but in reality, the payment was due October 31^st. way before Minister Merentes took the position. Despite this, Merentes blamed PDVSA, saying the company had not been able to provide the data required in order to calculate what the amount of the payment should be.

At the time, the Government said that S&P rushed to downgrade the country and that Venezuela was ready to pay the roughly US$ 30 million due and would create a trust at the payment agency with that amount until it had calculated how much money needed to be paid for each warrant. It also said it would pay interest on the money owed when paid.

Well, today the Government said that its preliminary calculation indicates that no payment needs to be made. According to the Ministry of Finance, no payment needs to be made because the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket for the period was below that of the reference price established by the original prospectus of the Brady bonds. The Government claims that S&P and others made the mistake of using the average price of the Venezuelan oil basket without subtracting shipping and insurance from it. Others say that S&P is right and the Government does owe the money.

In the end, this is simply creating unnecessary confusion in the country’s debt markets and projecting an image of disorganization that is not good for the country. Until the issue is cleared up, it will likely block the country from tapping international markets. The 2005 budget includes issuing debt in US currency and euros.

The Government’s of Venezuela and Colombia announced tonight that the crisis between the two countries had been “overcome”. The communiqué by the Colombian Government simply says that they will use established means of communication to fight terrorism, but fails to provide the apology that Chavez said was needed in order to consider the matter ended. The Venezuelan Government did not issue any communiqué but said it was quite satisfied with the one fro Colombia.

The Government’s of Venezuela and Colombia announced tonight that the crisis between the two countries had been “overcome”. The communiqué by the Colombian Government simply says that they will use established means of communication to fight terrorism, but fails to provide the apology that Chavez said was needed in order to consider the matter ended. The Venezuelan Government did not issue any communiqué but said it was quite satisfied with the one fro Colombia.