Archive for the 'Venezuela' Category

Pedestrian application of Benford’s Law to Exit polls

September 18, 2004

I have been in computer hell ever since my laptop decided two weeks ago not to charge properly. Then I got a new charger and it’s the connector in the motherboard, so it may die again. Apparently the only solution may be to get a new motherboard from the States. When I finally got it to work it gave me an error, called Microsoft who said reinstall Windows, I did. Unfortunately, after installing Windows I could not get the Wireless network to even give me the right menu. Called Dell and had my first experience with a call center in India, very efficient, polite and knowledgeable and I am back on the air for the time being with my laptop.


Lots to post, for now, someone in the comments asked/said how come Benford’s Law had not been applied to the Exit polls, so I did it. Now, understand that all I did was plot the fraction ocurrenecs for a first digit for the exit polls for both the Si’s and the No’s and got the following histogram:


 



 


This seems to be textbook Benford’s Law for the data from the 325 centers polled by Proyecto Venezuela. I don’t know if mathematicians do other tests to evaluate how “good” or “bad” it fits with Benford’s law. If anyone knows, let me know.

Andrew Morse compares Carter and Rather

September 15, 2004


Good article by Andrew Morse in Tech Central Station comparing the fake Rather documents and the rush to judgment by CBS to Carter’s rush to judgement in the Venezuelan recall. I love this sentence:


“The deficiencies exhibited by CBS and the Carter Center are problematic not only for big media and elite NGOs. Left unaddressed, they are problems that will eventually feed back into the blogosphere. The rise of the blogosphere has been predicated on the existence of a reliable, common base of information that people can discuss — a base of information that full-timers are still in the best position to provide. The blogosphere is most robust when it can draw upon the resources of media organizations with global reach that honestly vet sources and conduct comprehensive follow-up reporting. It depends on the boots on the ground that a Carter Center can provide to monitor elections in faraway lands. Without the work of an organization like the Carter Center, there might not be detailed election data from Venezuela to examine in the first place. “


For those that don’t know about the Dan Rather affair, you can read all about it at Instapundit, but basically somebody gave CBS fake documents that questioned President Bush’ National Guard service and the type of treatment he received while there. These documents were quickly debunked and found to be fake by bloggers in less than 24 hours. The giveaway? Easy, the documents were supposed to be from before the era of PC’s but were printed using one, which one could tell by the quality of the spacing and font!. More here too.

How many feel about the mathematical studies of the RR vote by Weil

September 15, 2004

How many feel about the mathematical studies of the RR vote by Weil

September 15, 2004

Second Seminar on Electoral Statistics

September 14, 2004

For those in Caracas the second seminar sponsored by USB and UCV will take place next Thursday at Simon Bolivar University at 11 AM at the Centro de Auditorios.


 


There will be three talks (Moderator Ricardo Rios(UCV)):


 


-Luis Raul Perichi (USB): Statistical Methods to verify the non-inetrvention of an election.


-Rafael Torrealba (Universidad Centro Occidental Lisandro Alvarado): Numerical coincidences or correlations in the August 15th referéndum.


-Isbelia Martin (USB): The Presidential recall referendum analized as a natural binomial process: A physical perspective.

Second Seminar on Electoral Statistics

September 14, 2004

For those in Caracas the second seminar sponsored by USB and UCV will take place next Thursday at Simon Bolivar University at 11 AM at the Centro de Auditorios.


 


There will be three talks (Moderator Ricardo Rios(UCV)):


 


-Luis Raul Perichi (USB): Statistical Methods to verify the non-inetrvention of an election.


-Rafael Torrealba (Universidad Centro Occidental Lisandro Alvarado): Numerical coincidences or correlations in the August 15th referéndum.


-Isbelia Martin (USB): The Presidential recall referendum analized as a natural binomial process: A physical perspective.

Have fun with the CNE! by Teodoro Petkoff

September 14, 2004


Couple with yesterday’s Macondo-like story with this Tal Cual Editorial and the meaning of underdevelopment reaches unheard of heights with this the new “oligarchy” that celebrates their non-accomplishments.


Have fun with the CNE! by Teodoro Petkoff


Like a fruit that begins to rot, the symptoms of the beginning are
imperceptible. Then they will accentuate themselves until they can not
longer be hidden.



That’s what happens to political regimes.



In the beginning the cases are isolated and disperse, later they
become protuberances and finally the lack of honesty wins it all.
Yesterday Tal Cual told the story of two recent facts through which
not the hidden face of the moon is shown but the one on this side. And
is full of pimples and wrinkles.



One was the gracious award of a bonus of Bs. 15 million to 420 workers
of the Autonomous Institute for the Railroad (IAFE)-by pure
coincidence, of course, two days before the recall referendum.
They are Bs. 6 billion (US$ 2 million) distributed happily, with no
other justification than the delay in the signing of the union
contract.



This practice (the one of a bonus), in these cases of delays is
common. What is unusual, of course, is the disproportionate amount
that the lucky workers of the IAFE received. Could it be that this
bonus is indexed to inflation? They could come back and tell us such a
tale.



But in largesse and waste, the CNE, with its patron saint party that
it began celebrating yesterday, breaks all records. Even if the amount
of money that the CNE will dilapidate is much less than that of the
trains-188 millions, a mere peanut shell compared to the other
one-qualitatively speaking the immorality is larger. 60 million for a
party at the Military Circle, 22 million, 22 million in caps, t shirts
and key chains; 15 million in a magazine that nobody will read and
million and millions more in “performances”, musical groups, plays,
flowers for the Liberator, arrangements for the godmother,
arrangements for a church, a car rally that symbolically begins at the
CNE and ends at the military circle, place f residence of
“tramparente” Carrasquero, posters, sports trophies, kid storybooks, a

<!– D(["mb","horse race (at which there will be a toast for 12 million). Nothing\
has been left to chance. A forward looking hand wrote next to a budget\
item of 4 million for the güiski "careful, do not exclude".\
Elementary. Any situation, Carrasquero must have thought, can be\
overcome (sobrevenida) except what has to do with alcohol. And let it\
be 18 years old.\
It is the usual Saudi-like style, but worse. In the spirit of the\
"Great Venezuela", but worse. The carelessness with public funds, but\
worse. Ask that oil will give. And we will too, because oil pays only\
half of public expenditures. The other half is paid by the taxpayers.\
Is this what Vielma Mora (the internal revenue chief) gets the funds\
for? The tax office shuts down and shuts down businesses, its goal is\
cero evasion, asks consumers for their receipts, improves tax\
collection and all of that, for what? So that the CNE Directors can\
light up their cigars with ten thousand Bs. Bills?\
\
–\
Miguel Octavio\
\
blog: The Devil\’s Excrement\
\
\http://miguel.octavio.net\\
“,1] ); D([“mb”,””,0] ); D([“ce”]); //–>

horse race (at which there will be a toast for 12 million). Nothing
has been left to chance. A forward looking hand wrote next to a budget
item of 4 million for the güiski “careful, do not exclude”.
Elementary. Any situation, Carrasquero must have thought, can be
overcome (sobrevenida) except what has to do with alcohol. And let it
be 18 years old.



It is the usual Saudi-like style, but worse. In the spirit of the
“Great Venezuela”, but worse. The carelessness with public funds, but
worse. Ask that oil will give. And we will too, because oil pays only
half of public expenditures. The other half is paid by the taxpayers.
Is this what Vielma Mora (the internal revenue chief) gets the funds
for? The tax office shuts down and shuts down businesses, its goal is
cero evasion, asks consumers for their receipts, improves tax
collection and all of that, for what? So that the CNE Directors can
light up their cigars with ten thousand Bs. Bills?

Have fun with the CNE! by Teodoro Petkoff

September 14, 2004


Couple with yesterday’s Macondo-like story with this Tal Cual Editorial and the meaning of underdevelopment reaches unheard of heights with this the new “oligarchy” that celebrates their non-accomplishments.


Have fun with the CNE! by Teodoro Petkoff


Like a fruit that begins to rot, the symptoms of the beginning are
imperceptible. Then they will accentuate themselves until they can not
longer be hidden.



That’s what happens to political regimes.



In the beginning the cases are isolated and disperse, later they
become protuberances and finally the lack of honesty wins it all.
Yesterday Tal Cual told the story of two recent facts through which
not the hidden face of the moon is shown but the one on this side. And
is full of pimples and wrinkles.



One was the gracious award of a bonus of Bs. 15 million to 420 workers
of the Autonomous Institute for the Railroad (IAFE)-by pure
coincidence, of course, two days before the recall referendum.
They are Bs. 6 billion (US$ 2 million) distributed happily, with no
other justification than the delay in the signing of the union
contract.



This practice (the one of a bonus), in these cases of delays is
common. What is unusual, of course, is the disproportionate amount
that the lucky workers of the IAFE received. Could it be that this
bonus is indexed to inflation? They could come back and tell us such a
tale.



But in largesse and waste, the CNE, with its patron saint party that
it began celebrating yesterday, breaks all records. Even if the amount
of money that the CNE will dilapidate is much less than that of the
trains-188 millions, a mere peanut shell compared to the other
one-qualitatively speaking the immorality is larger. 60 million for a
party at the Military Circle, 22 million, 22 million in caps, t shirts
and key chains; 15 million in a magazine that nobody will read and
million and millions more in “performances”, musical groups, plays,
flowers for the Liberator, arrangements for the godmother,
arrangements for a church, a car rally that symbolically begins at the
CNE and ends at the military circle, place f residence of
“tramparente” Carrasquero, posters, sports trophies, kid storybooks, a

<!– D(["mb","horse race (at which there will be a toast for 12 million). Nothing\
has been left to chance. A forward looking hand wrote next to a budget\
item of 4 million for the güiski "careful, do not exclude".\
Elementary. Any situation, Carrasquero must have thought, can be\
overcome (sobrevenida) except what has to do with alcohol. And let it\
be 18 years old.\
It is the usual Saudi-like style, but worse. In the spirit of the\
"Great Venezuela", but worse. The carelessness with public funds, but\
worse. Ask that oil will give. And we will too, because oil pays only\
half of public expenditures. The other half is paid by the taxpayers.\
Is this what Vielma Mora (the internal revenue chief) gets the funds\
for? The tax office shuts down and shuts down businesses, its goal is\
cero evasion, asks consumers for their receipts, improves tax\
collection and all of that, for what? So that the CNE Directors can\
light up their cigars with ten thousand Bs. Bills?\
\
–\
Miguel Octavio\
\
blog: The Devil\’s Excrement\
\
\http://miguel.octavio.net\\
“,1] ); D([“mb”,””,0] ); D([“ce”]); //–>

horse race (at which there will be a toast for 12 million). Nothing
has been left to chance. A forward looking hand wrote next to a budget
item of 4 million for the güiski “careful, do not exclude”.
Elementary. Any situation, Carrasquero must have thought, can be
overcome (sobrevenida) except what has to do with alcohol. And let it
be 18 years old.



It is the usual Saudi-like style, but worse. In the spirit of the
“Great Venezuela”, but worse. The carelessness with public funds, but
worse. Ask that oil will give. And we will too, because oil pays only
half of public expenditures. The other half is paid by the taxpayers.
Is this what Vielma Mora (the internal revenue chief) gets the funds
for? The tax office shuts down and shuts down businesses, its goal is
cero evasion, asks consumers for their receipts, improves tax
collection and all of that, for what? So that the CNE Directors can
light up their cigars with ten thousand Bs. Bills?

They cry out fraud in the election of the queen of the Electoral Board

September 13, 2004

This story is so incredibly ridiculous, ironic and in a perverse sense, funny, that I could not possibly pass up translating it:


 


WARNING: THIS IS NOT A JOKE


 


They cry out fraud in the election of the “queen” of the Electoral Board (CNE).


 


The Electoral National Council (CNE) has been shaken again by charges of electoral fraud, but this time it does not have anything to do with politics:  they are aimed against the selection of its own beauty queen.  While the charges by the political opposition of the country against the decision of the CNE to give the victory to President Hugo Chavez in the recall referendum vote on his mandate have yet to be silencec, employees of the institution protested against a supposed manipulation in the election of the most beautiful employee of the CNE, Reuters informed. 


 


According to witnesses, last Wednesday the CNE workers rejected with shouts the selection in an internal beauty contest, of an employee of the press department.  In the surveys prior to the election, the girl who was winning was not among the favorites.  “Everybody was surprised ‘”, said to Reuters a civilian employee of the CNE, that requested not to be identified.  “Perhaps the men thought that she was not the most beautiful; people in the back shouted “fraud” and they left the hall “, he added. 


 


Witnesses assured us that the president of the CNE, lawyer Francisco Carrasquero, was one of the five members of the jury of the contest in which 17 candidates participated.  The suspicions and outraged accusations of the employees reminded everyone of the charges by the political opposition that, in spite of not exhibiting concrete proofs and against the opinion of international observers, assures everyone that the CNE altered the results of presidential recall referendum of August15th.  in order to grant Chávez the triumph that ratified him in his position until 2007. 


 


The Democratic Coordinator (CD) charges that the CNE is dominated by those in favor of the government of Chávez, and says that they have manipulated the voting system to yield the victory to him.


 


 The CNE is celebrating this week the anniversary of the designation of their authorities in the 2003 by the Supreme Court of Justice.  The election of the “queen” was part of those celebrations, in a country that takes very seriously its beauty contests and that has managed to obtain more international crowns of beauty that any other nation in the globe.  It was not clear if the CNE will keep the result or if it accepted the demand by some employees who demanded a revision of the election.

They cry out fraud in the election of the queen of the Electoral Board

September 13, 2004

This story is so incredibly ridiculous, ironic and in a perverse sense, funny, that I could not possibly pass up translating it:


 


WARNING: THIS IS NOT A JOKE


 


They cry out fraud in the election of the “queen” of the Electoral Board (CNE).


 


The Electoral National Council (CNE) has been shaken again by charges of electoral fraud, but this time it does not have anything to do with politics:  they are aimed against the selection of its own beauty queen.  While the charges by the political opposition of the country against the decision of the CNE to give the victory to President Hugo Chavez in the recall referendum vote on his mandate have yet to be silencec, employees of the institution protested against a supposed manipulation in the election of the most beautiful employee of the CNE, Reuters informed. 


 


According to witnesses, last Wednesday the CNE workers rejected with shouts the selection in an internal beauty contest, of an employee of the press department.  In the surveys prior to the election, the girl who was winning was not among the favorites.  “Everybody was surprised ‘”, said to Reuters a civilian employee of the CNE, that requested not to be identified.  “Perhaps the men thought that she was not the most beautiful; people in the back shouted “fraud” and they left the hall “, he added. 


 


Witnesses assured us that the president of the CNE, lawyer Francisco Carrasquero, was one of the five members of the jury of the contest in which 17 candidates participated.  The suspicions and outraged accusations of the employees reminded everyone of the charges by the political opposition that, in spite of not exhibiting concrete proofs and against the opinion of international observers, assures everyone that the CNE altered the results of presidential recall referendum of August15th.  in order to grant Chávez the triumph that ratified him in his position until 2007. 


 


The Democratic Coordinator (CD) charges that the CNE is dominated by those in favor of the government of Chávez, and says that they have manipulated the voting system to yield the victory to him.


 


 The CNE is celebrating this week the anniversary of the designation of their authorities in the 2003 by the Supreme Court of Justice.  The election of the “queen” was part of those celebrations, in a country that takes very seriously its beauty contests and that has managed to obtain more international crowns of beauty that any other nation in the globe.  It was not clear if the CNE will keep the result or if it accepted the demand by some employees who demanded a revision of the election.