Rumors published yesterday in some newspapers claim the government is thinking in reducing the amount of the Value Added Tax (IVA) and eliminating the criminal tax on bank transactions (IDB). These would turn out to be brilliant electoral strategies on the part of the government as would be eliminating the corrupt exchange control. I doubt the government has the conviction to carry them through or the ability to execute them on time.
Archive for the 'Venezuela' Category
IDB, IVA and exchange control
June 11, 2004Political Police searches offices of Venevision
June 11, 2004The Political Police have initiated a procedure against Venevision one of the main private channels in Venezuela. I imagined that before the referendum a lot of the private media will be investigated on phony charges. I’ve never understood the stupidity of these measures taken by authoritarian governments, if what the media says are lies, you only have to tell the truth and wait. If they are saying the truth and it scares you, you have bigger problems than the media itself. This types of measures just proof how desperate and isolated the government is.
Voting Machines and Fraud in Recall Vote
June 11, 2004Faithful readers of this site know the imprecisions of The New York Times designated writer for Latin America Juan Forero. His latest piece about the voting machines that the CNE wants to impose in the election in order to facilitate cheating in the upcoming referendum, is a refreshing reminder that sometimes the truth comes out even through biases eyes. Perhaps is the influence of co-writer John Schwartz, but it is worth reading. A quote:
“But the electoral council has opposed an audit, saying that as an autonomous body it would tally the votes and ensure there is no fraud. Some pro-Chávez members of the council, in fact, have suggested that the O.A.S. does not need to monitor the election, or that its role should be restricted.”
another:
Glitches and tampering with voting machines has been seen before in Latin America, where there is a long history of stolen elections.
The government of then-President Alberto K. Fujimori stole the 2000 Peruvian presidential election. Days before, the O.A.S. examined the software used in the machines and found technical problems that would permit manipulation.
The Fujimori government, though, refused to make corrections, and the O.A.S. abandoned the country before the election. The government was later accused of fraud in the election. Mr. Fujimori resigned soon after.
Mr. Rubin said it is crucial to ensure that the companies chosen to supply machines and software be experienced and have a proven track record, particularly in an election as important as Venezuela’s.
Will the chavistas suffer a similar fate? We shall see.
Implied Exchange Rate Sharply down
June 11, 2004Don’t fully understand this, but this come from a report from a Venezuelan stockbrockerage firm: “The CANTV ADR implied FX rate fell sharply to Bs. 2.600 (see chart). The precipitous decline is attributed to various factors, including US bond sales to pay for Bolivar leverage, a more expeditious CADIVI and the decline in International Reserves. “
– YFGB
… is set
June 8, 2004The recall vote will be on August 15. If it is realized on this day there should be elections before the end of the year. The constitution says one month but don’t hold your breath.
– YFGB
The Date…
June 7, 2004Today the big discussion is about the date of the referendum, perhaps no one has noticed that officially the referendum hasn’t been announced by the CNE. The official meeting to decide whether or not there is a referendum is tomorrow. The opposition wants a August 8 date or earlier, while the officialist want it on August 15. Why is a week so important? The second date pushes things closer to the magic August 19 date, August 15 is also the middle of vacation time. Some chavistas seem to think that favors them, because the oligarcs are more likely to be on vacation than the people. Wishful thinking on their part.
– YFGB
Officialist March
June 6, 2004Today there was an officialist march. Lots of people, that’s the first leg in the chavista strategy. Make the opposition think they have support, make people doubt that the people in the ill defined “western part” of Caracas or the barrios. No dice. I, for one, don’t believe it for a minute. It’s simply too easy to use government money and resources to give speeches, pay for ads, and prepare a very expensive campaign. It won’t fly. The government has been too inefficient, too corrupt. Even guys with red beret and “Che” Guevara T-Shirts will go to the poll centers the day of the referendum and vote against Chavez. Not because they hate him personally (see the illuminating Notes for an effective Recall campaign at CC) but because they hate most of what surrounds him.
– YFGB
Broken Maria
June 6, 2004On the 4th of June the Direction for Historical Patrimony from the Mayorship of Libertador County in Caracas announced with great fanfare that the restoration of the Maria Lionza statue (in the middle of the freeway near the Universidad Central), had culminated successfully. The next day the statue broke down. Huge incompetence or “a plot from a fascist opposition to make the government look bad”?
– YFGB
