The Devil's Excrement

Rumors, lots of rumors abound, coups, self-coups (what for, he got us man?) sensible solutions coming, unreasonable ones being ratified, the OAS is pulling out, Carter is coming, Carrasquero is being blackmailed, the Supreme Court will intervene, the Amigos are pissed, Gaviria is not coming, Sumate leaders to be jailed, Cuba wants to get rid of Chavez, this was all planned in Cuba, and I am worrying about statistical significance…

You see, even if I am statistically insignificant, I can’t help but worry about the misuses and uses of statistics. You would think that a trained psychiatrist in a country with tropical diseases would have some idea about statistics. After all, he was trained as a medical doctor and I imagine they have a subject called epidemiology to help him understand the difference between one, one hundred and one thousand cases of an illness, as to being something to worry about or not.

I am, of course, talking about our esteemed CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. That man who is full of compassion, who is fair, who is honest and impartial, according to the Government and who is a @#*/?^er according to the opposition. Just when I thought I would learn about that higher logic used in the decision by the CNE, he comes and says, just like that:

“It is clear in the regulations that the data of the citizen had by the citizen himself”

Being a nit picking wit since a long time ago, rather than go to the regulations I appeal to Merriam Webster online, where I find that the word clear means bright, luminous, clean, pure, plain, unmistakable, sure, innocent, unqualified, absolute and bare (my favorite). Then, I go to that wonderful work of German precision and engineering and pride of judicial creativity of the Vth. Republic , called in short “Regulations for recall referenda processes of the mandate of positions by popular elections”.

I search, but obviously after sleeping badly last night concerned about the future, I miss that particular article out of the 65 that would illuminate, cleanse and purify my mind with the truth. I go back to no avail. I then use the search feature in my browser and look for signature (“firma” in Spanish), there are many, but the only apparent relevant ones are Art. 22, 2. which says:

Art. 22. The form which constitutes the request to convoque a recall referendum should contain:

Name, Last name, position of the public official whose mandate is pretended to be revoked, as well as an indication of the effective date in which he was inaugurated.

Name, Last name, national ID number, birthdate, name of the electoral circuit, manuscript original signature and fingerprint of the electors that request that the recall referendum be convoked, in legible form.

Later it says in Art.29:

Art. 29. The signatures or requests will not be considered faithful and in consequence will be considered invalid, in any of the following assumptions:

If there is incongruence between the name, last name, birthdate and national ID number of the person signing.

If the person is not registered in the electoral circuit corresponding to the referendum that is being convoked.

If the signature is not manuscript.

If the signature is a product of a photocopy or nay other media of reproduction.

If it is determine that more than one signature comes from the same person

By now, reading all this legalese I realize I have become stupid or something, as I find no clear, bright or even naked mention to what our illustrious Dr. Rodriguez says. What I did find was two mentions to manuscript signatures and NONE to the rest that he so clearly sees. I imagine Paris Hilton must also be totally different through Dr. Rodriguez’s eyes. As usual, when I am tired or pissed, I digress.

Despite my poor reading Dr. Rodriguez continues:

In article 29, #5, where it is established that for a signature to be faithful the same person could not take the data or different signatures, but that each person had to provide his/her name, last name, ID number, birthdate, signature and fingerprint….that there was an instruction bulletin for observers (show me a copy!) that said that each person fills the corresponding data and that the CNE published ads that said that it was “very important” that the data be filled by the person signing. (Would love him to show us one, however, the regulations are above the ads or the instruction bulletins, that is why they are published in the official gazette).

By now, I give up, but continue reading Dr. Rodriguez eloquent explanation of his brilliant rationale. About the OAS suggestion of analyzing a random sample of the forms he said

“I have no problem; however, I consider it to be statistically unacceptable”

It is at this point that that light bulb goes on in my brain. Of course! That is the key! Statistical significance is where it’s at! Brilliant Dr. Rodriguez, absolutely brilliant! Something that was unclear to 40% of the people signing for the opposition was clear to him, something that was also unclear to at least 50% of those signing the pro-Chavez petition was very clear to him. Since the error goes as 1/root (sample size), and the sample size was in the one million size, it is statistically insignificant to have so many people think differently than him. No matter how many signatures we sample, the result will come out different that he wants, and that is what he calls statistical significance: If Dr. Rodriguez agrees with it, it is statistically significant, if not, simply forget it!

That is why I feel so insignificant tonight, statistically and otherwise!

Rumors, lots of rumors abound, coups, self-coups (what for, he got us man?) sensible solutions coming, unreasonable ones being ratified, the OAS is pulling out, Carter is coming, Carrasquero is being blackmailed, the Supreme Court will intervene, the Amigos are pissed, Gaviria is not coming, Sumate leaders to be jailed, Cuba wants to get rid of Chavez, this was all planned in Cuba, and I am worrying about statistical significance…

You see, even if I am statistically insignificant, I can’t help but worry about the misuses and uses of statistics. You would think that a trained psychiatrist in a country with tropical diseases would have some idea about statistics. After all, he was trained as a medical doctor and I imagine they have a subject called epidemiology to help him understand the difference between one, one hundred and one thousand cases of an illness, as to being something to worry about or not.

I am, of course, talking about our esteemed CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. That man who is full of compassion, who is fair, who is honest and impartial, according to the Government and who is a @#*/?^er according to the opposition. Just when I thought I would learn about that higher logic used in the decision by the CNE, he comes and says, just like that:

“It is clear in the regulations that the data of the citizen had by the citizen himself”

Being a nit picking wit since a long time ago, rather than go to the regulations I appeal to Merriam Webster online, where I find that the word clear means bright, luminous, clean, pure, plain, unmistakable, sure, innocent, unqualified, absolute and bare (my favorite). Then, I go to that wonderful work of German precision and engineering and pride of judicial creativity of the Vth. Republic , called in short “Regulations for recall referenda processes of the mandate of positions by popular elections”.

I search, but obviously after sleeping badly last night concerned about the future, I miss that particular article out of the 65 that would illuminate, cleanse and purify my mind with the truth. I go back to no avail. I then use the search feature in my browser and look for signature (“firma” in Spanish), there are many, but the only apparent relevant ones are Art. 22, 2. which says:

Art. 22. The form which constitutes the request to convoque a recall referendum should contain:

Name, Last name, position of the public official whose mandate is pretended to be revoked, as well as an indication of the effective date in which he was inaugurated.

Name, Last name, national ID number, birthdate, name of the electoral circuit, manuscript original signature and fingerprint of the electors that request that the recall referendum be convoked, in legible form.

Later it says in Art.29:

Art. 29. The signatures or requests will not be considered faithful and in consequence will be considered invalid, in any of the following assumptions:

If there is incongruence between the name, last name, birthdate and national ID number of the person signing.

If the person is not registered in the electoral circuit corresponding to the referendum that is being convoked.

If the signature is not manuscript.

If the signature is a product of a photocopy or nay other media of reproduction.

If it is determine that more than one signature comes from the same person

By now, reading all this legalese I realize I have become stupid or something, as I find no clear, bright or even naked mention to what our illustrious Dr. Rodriguez says. What I did find was two mentions to manuscript signatures and NONE to the rest that he so clearly sees. I imagine Paris Hilton must also be totally different through Dr. Rodriguez’s eyes. As usual, when I am tired or pissed, I digress.

Despite my poor reading Dr. Rodriguez continues:

In article 29, #5, where it is established that for a signature to be faithful the same person could not take the data or different signatures, but that each person had to provide his/her name, last name, ID number, birthdate, signature and fingerprint….that there was an instruction bulletin for observers (show me a copy!) that said that each person fills the corresponding data and that the CNE published ads that said that it was “very important” that the data be filled by the person signing. (Would love him to show us one, however, the regulations are above the ads or the instruction bulletins, that is why they are published in the official gazette).

By now, I give up, but continue reading Dr. Rodriguez eloquent explanation of his brilliant rationale. About the OAS suggestion of analyzing a random sample of the forms he said

“I have no problem; however, I consider it to be statistically unacceptable”

It is at this point that that light bulb goes on in my brain. Of course! That is the key! Statistical significance is where it’s at! Brilliant Dr. Rodriguez, absolutely brilliant! Something that was unclear to 40% of the people signing for the opposition was clear to him, something that was also unclear to at least 50% of those signing the pro-Chavez petition was very clear to him. Since the error goes as 1/root (sample size), and the sample size was in the one million size, it is statistically insignificant to have so many people think differently than him. No matter how many signatures we sample, the result will come out different that he wants, and that is what he calls statistical significance: If Dr. Rodriguez agrees with it, it is statistically significant, if not, simply forget it!

That is why I feel so insignificant tonight, statistically and otherwise!

This is today’s Editorial of Tal Cual

At the CNE they placed under observation 213 thousand forms for the presidential recall referendum of which 148 thousand correspond to the so called “planas”. (Forms with the same calligraphy for the person’s data). This means that through an as yet unknown procedure, for which new specific regulations will be approved, citizens with their national ID card would have to clarify if they signed or not. It is the responsibility of the citizen to demonstrate he or she is not a crook. 

The presumption of innocence, which is the basis of all judicial systems, is transformed by the Carrasquero Doctrine in the presumption of culpability: All people are delinquents until they can prove the opposite. The Board of the CNE even rejected the sensible suggestion by the OAS and the Carter Center of verifying through a random sampling the legitimacy of the signatures and approved this grotesque inversion of the burden of proof.

We could see this coming when a draft of regulations (approved last night too) was announced that considered “suspicious” the same calligraphy not only on the signature but in the space where the data of the citizen is filled.

This was not contemplated in the “Regulations” for the verification of the signatures, in which the only cause for invalidating was the same calligraphy of the signatures.

And this is the only possible logic, because what makes the act of requesting the recall referendum “very personal” is the signature of the citizen and not the way in which his personal data which identifies him was entered.

The truth of the matter is that the majority of the Board of the CNE, in its attempt to avoid responsibility, has translated to the citizens the definite verification of the signatures. How would people be able to do this? It has not been established yet. Who guarantees that the process of exercising the right to amend the elimination of the signatures will not be blocked by new tricks or changes in the rules of the game? Will the Army be available to guarantee the security of the citizens? Will it be a simple process or an obstacle course so complex and difficult to fill as the cover forms for the petition signatures that will allow the CNE to approve a new path for the rules for those situations “that just happened“ as the Carrasquero Doctrine calls them? We have reached a very delicate point in the process. The feeling that the will of millions of citizens can be laughed at through the famous “tricks” mentioned by Carter, does nothing but be reaffirmed each day that goes by. And with it the perception that the country is dangerously approaching an inflection point in its immediate history.

By the usual 3-2 vote, the Consejo Nacional Electoral decided to keep under observation 148,000 forms with the signatures for the petition requesting for President Chavez’ recall. Next week, a decision will be made on how people will be able to contest the exclusion of their signature from the petition. Sobella Mejias, who voted against the decision, said this is a flagrant violation of the regulations the CNE approved and of the Constitutional right for requesting a recall. This is a very dirty decision and a rip off by the pro-Chavez members of the CNE, violates the law and goes against the tradition of what a person’s signature is worth and means.

Essentially in one big swipe, the CNE managed to set aside close to 1.4 million signatures of the 3.4 million submitted by the opposition, managing in this way to reduce the number below the 2.4 million required to hold a referendum to recall Hugo Chavez. The trick was to disqualify those signatures in which the person at the poll booth gathering the petition filled out the data, copying it from the national idenity card of the person signing. This was legal as the regulations only said that the person had to sign and stamp his/her fingerprint and the data had to match that of the electoral registry.  International observers monitored the process and both the OAS and the Carter Center knew that the opposition had the required minimum for the recall to take place.

What apparently will happen now, is that hundreds of thousands of people will once again have to go out to say they did sign the petition. This is a travesty, a simple petition has turned into a complex process in which the person’s signature and fingerprint were questioned without any basis whatsoever. The burden of proof was on the electoral body to show they were fake, not the other way around. Getting enough people to go and say they did sign is doable, but this uses up time, which is of the essence. According to the country’s Constitution, if the recall vote takes place after Aug. 19th., Chavez’ fourth anniversary in office, instead of electing a new President, the Vice-President takes over.

This is the third time that a referendum petition handed in by the opposition is blocked on the basis of technicalities. So much for the “participative” democracy that Hugo Chavez used to proclaim.

It is a very sad day for Venezuelan democracy, whatever is left of it.

The country is simply dead. No Alo Presidente on Sunday (a blessing!). Few politicians around, as the urgency of the political crisis is set aside for a few days, while people celebrate Venezuela’s non-existent Carnival. Instead, they go to the beach, to their hometown and those that are stuck at home or in the barrios throw water or eggs at passersbys. Such tradition!.

And speaking of tradition, Venezuelan politicians can’t even keep a promise for two days. Last Friday, the President of the CNE was on TV saying how the Board would work hard all weekend to resolve the huge issues facing them. But they acted with the same faithfulness and responsibility that characterizes Venezuelan fatherhood, no sooner had Carrasquero made his statement, that a caller to a TV program said that he was at the airport leaving for Maracaibo. The next day, he was not there but the other four Directors were. On Sunday they were still working, sans Carrasquero, but by today the CNE was a deserted as the rest of the city.

Thus the beat goes on and the only big topic of discussion was Chavez’ statements in Guyana, right before the Carnival holidays. You can read more details in Daniel’s blog but I can’t pass it up.

Essentially, Venezuela has had a long standing dispute with Guyana over a territory which is about 16% that of Venezuela (and 40% of Guyana’s!). At the turn of the century, there was a decision by an international Court that that area belonged to Guyana, then a British colony. Later, it was discovered through the will of one of those that participated in the decision, that it had all been fixed. Since 1949, Venezuela has been “claiming” this area. Venezuela has taken it to international courts and the “fight” has dragged on for years. It is a very emotional issue of the type I dislike.

Venezuela signed an agreement, known as the Geneva agreement, to look for a peaceful solution to the dispute. In 1999, the United Nations named a mediator to try to find a solution to the problem. Chavez’ own new Constitution defines the borders of the country and includes the Guyana territory within it, by defining the borders as those at the time of the “Capitania General” around 1810. Moreover, when the current Vice-President was Minister of Defense he got all worked up once, denouncing that Guyana was trying to assign areas within the claimed territory to oil companies for exploration. (It is not demonstrated that there is oil there anyway)

Last week. Chavez went to Guyana on an official visit and surprised everyone by giving the green light to that country’s President to begin oil exploration in the claimed area. This is a complete about face of the policy of the last six Venezuelan Governments including Chavez’.

The question is then, why would the supposedly hyper nationalistic Chávez change his mind on this issue all of a sudden? Easy, if Chavez were to stop the recall referendum, the OAS will likely attempt to invoke the Democratic letter of that organization, of which Venezuela is a signee. However, the countries of the CARICOM would have to vote against Venezuela for that to happen. Not an easy thing, given that Venezuela sells subsidized oil to many of these countries. Thus, the opposition charges, Chavez changed his mind simply to save his own skin.

In my mind, this is one of those nationalistic issues that seem to bring the worst in people. I find it amazingly hypocritical that politicians that have not been able to take care (then and now) of the almost one million square kilometers of land we already have, actually want to add more to it, to mismanage it or ignore it. But I am sure someone is going to get mad at me for thinking the Guyana claim is not that important. Sorry, I just don’t.  

Do we need that area to survive? Is it crucial to our development? Would we do anything with it if it were given back to us? Do the citizens of that area speak English or Spanish? Do they want to be part of Venezuela or Guyana? 

If we were up to me, I would negotiate something sensible with Guyana so that both countries could get on with their lives, the politicians screwing the citizens as usual. Of course, any agreemnet would have to be done under the law, with the approval of the National Assembly, which would have to change the Constitution and approve the treaty. This is essentially impossible. And this is where Chavez blew it; he can not act like he did at the personal level and make a decision which violates the law and the Constitution. But what else is new? Unfortunately this distracts attention from the more pressing problems of the country.

The country is simply dead. No Alo Presidente on Sunday (a blessing!). Few politicians around, as the urgency of the political crisis is set aside for a few days, while people celebrate Venezuela’s non-existent Carnival. Instead, they go to the beach, to their hometown and those that are stuck at home or in the barrios throw water or eggs at passersbys. Such tradition!.

And speaking of tradition, Venezuelan politicians can’t even keep a promise for two days. Last Friday, the President of the CNE was on TV saying how the Board would work hard all weekend to resolve the huge issues facing them. But they acted with the same faithfulness and responsibility that characterizes Venezuelan fatherhood, no sooner had Carrasquero made his statement, that a caller to a TV program said that he was at the airport leaving for Maracaibo. The next day, he was not there but the other four Directors were. On Sunday they were still working, sans Carrasquero, but by today the CNE was a deserted as the rest of the city.

Thus the beat goes on and the only big topic of discussion was Chavez’ statements in Guyana, right before the Carnival holidays. You can read more details in Daniel’s blog but I can’t pass it up.

Essentially, Venezuela has had a long standing dispute with Guyana over a territory which is about 16% that of Venezuela (and 40% of Guyana’s!). At the turn of the century, there was a decision by an international Court that that area belonged to Guyana, then a British colony. Later, it was discovered through the will of one of those that participated in the decision, that it had all been fixed. Since 1949, Venezuela has been “claiming” this area. Venezuela has taken it to international courts and the “fight” has dragged on for years. It is a very emotional issue of the type I dislike.

Venezuela signed an agreement, known as the Geneva agreement, to look for a peaceful solution to the dispute. In 1999, the United Nations named a mediator to try to find a solution to the problem. Chavez’ own new Constitution defines the borders of the country and includes the Guyana territory within it, by defining the borders as those at the time of the “Capitania General” around 1810. Moreover, when the current Vice-President was Minister of Defense he got all worked up once, denouncing that Guyana was trying to assign areas within the claimed territory to oil companies for exploration. (It is not demonstrated that there is oil there anyway)

Last week. Chavez went to Guyana on an official visit and surprised everyone by giving the green light to that country’s President to begin oil exploration in the claimed area. This is a complete about face of the policy of the last six Venezuelan Governments including Chavez’.

The question is then, why would the supposedly hyper nationalistic Chávez change his mind on this issue all of a sudden? Easy, if Chavez were to stop the recall referendum, the OAS will likely attempt to invoke the Democratic letter of that organization, of which Venezuela is a signee. However, the countries of the CARICOM would have to vote against Venezuela for that to happen. Not an easy thing, given that Venezuela sells subsidized oil to many of these countries. Thus, the opposition charges, Chavez changed his mind simply to save his own skin.

In my mind, this is one of those nationalistic issues that seem to bring the worst in people. I find it amazingly hypocritical that politicians that have not been able to take care (then and now) of the almost one million square kilometers of land we already have, actually want to add more to it, to mismanage it or ignore it. But I am sure someone is going to get mad at me for thinking the Guyana claim is not that important. Sorry, I just don’t.  

Do we need that area to survive? Is it crucial to our development? Would we do anything with it if it were given back to us? Do the citizens of that area speak English or Spanish? Do they want to be part of Venezuela or Guyana? 

If we were up to me, I would negotiate something sensible with Guyana so that both countries could get on with their lives, the politicians screwing the citizens as usual. Of course, any agreemnet would have to be done under the law, with the approval of the National Assembly, which would have to change the Constitution and approve the treaty. This is essentially impossible. And this is where Chavez blew it; he can not act like he did at the personal level and make a decision which violates the law and the Constitution. But what else is new? Unfortunately this distracts attention from the more pressing problems of the country.

Things continue to be confusing. The proposal to disqualify all signatures in forms in which the data was filled with the same handwriting (so called “planas”) continues to be discussed while lawyers openly say everything in Venezuela is illegal, because people just signed the Constitution, their birth certificate, their marriage certificate and any notarized paper, since they were all written by long hand before not too distant date by someone different than those signing and by PC’s and typewriters since.

But a fairly interesting proposal was made today by Enrique Ochoa Antich. Essentially he suggested that in order not to violate the rights of those that did sign, what the CNE should do is publish the list of those that signed, whether the handwriting is of the same type for both the data and the signature or not and those that did not sign. but do appear in it, can go to the CNE and say their signature was faked.

I think this is a very fair solution. First of all, it does indeed respect the will of those that signed in good faith without filling out the data part as the regulation say. Second, if there was the massive scale fraud that Chavez and his supporters claim, it would be revealed immediately as thousands would show up if their accusations are true. Third, if neither the opposition nor the pro-Chavez “planas” forms are bad, then the number of people that would show up would be minimal, simplifying the process. Finally, this would follow the spirit of the regulations that talks about “repairing” the record if errors were made.

Now, if the Chavistas really believe there was fraud, they should not be afraid of this proposal, it is fair to the people, allows their point to be proven and would make the opposition look really bad. What excuse will they use this time?

Things continue to be confusing. The proposal to disqualify all signatures in forms in which the data was filled with the same handwriting (so called “planas”) continues to be discussed while lawyers openly say everything in Venezuela is illegal, because people just signed the Constitution, their birth certificate, their marriage certificate and any notarized paper, since they were all written by long hand before not too distant date by someone different than those signing and by PC’s and typewriters since.

But a fairly interesting proposal was made today by Enrique Ochoa Antich. Essentially he suggested that in order not to violate the rights of those that did sign, what the CNE should do is publish the list of those that signed, whether the handwriting is of the same type for both the data and the signature or not and those that did not sign. but do appear in it, can go to the CNE and say their signature was faked.

I think this is a very fair solution. First of all, it does indeed respect the will of those that signed in good faith without filling out the data part as the regulation say. Second, if there was the massive scale fraud that Chavez and his supporters claim, it would be revealed immediately as thousands would show up if their accusations are true. Third, if neither the opposition nor the pro-Chavez “planas” forms are bad, then the number of people that would show up would be minimal, simplifying the process. Finally, this would follow the spirit of the regulations that talks about “repairing” the record if errors were made.

Now, if the Chavistas really believe there was fraud, they should not be afraid of this proposal, it is fair to the people, allows their point to be proven and would make the opposition look really bad. What excuse will they use this time?

I was surprised by the sharp drop in book exports from Spain to Venezuela in 2003. According to the Spanish Ministry of Commerce, book exports from that country dropped by 75% in 2003 over 2002. Spain is Venezuela’s largest supplier of books. Depressing…

There is no question in my mind now that the Chavez Government is getting ready to commit the biggest rip off in our democratic history. That these people have no scruples is being proven daily by the many decisions of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), the way the three pro-Chavez Directors are acting and the attempt to disqualify two million signatures of the petition gathered by the opposition last November 28^th. to December1st.

People are losing perspective when discussing what is going on. First of all, people seem to forget what the role of the petition for the referendum is supposed to be. For God’s sake, this is not a vote, this is only a petition! But the requirements established are tougher than for a real vote!

I would like to remind everyone that there were two ways for gathering the signatures: In the poll booths established for that effect and the so called “itinerant” gatherers who went around visiting hospitals, old people and those scared to be seen signing the petition in public places. Under the apparently insurmountable rules established by the CNE for this process, each polling station had to have Chavista witnesses. Each itinerant gatherer had to be accompanied by a Chavista witness. Each day, at the end of the day, the polling station or itinerant member had to put a cover to all forms and the signatures gathered in them and sign off the totals for the day. The forms were made in special paper. They had serial numbers.

So, if the CNE really believed that there was this mega fraud that Chavez and his cohorts are accusing the opposition for, they should look no further than the Chavista witnesses who signed the cover forms each day. The only way for the opposition to have manufactured this million plus signatures would have been to forge the signatures of these witnesses who, by the way, had received special training by the CNE.

But these people don’t want to play fair. They have been creating obstacles, writing new regulations, changing the rules and dealing behind the scenes from day one. Can anyone really believe that Jorge Rodriguez is impartial when he publicly even questioned the agreement signed by the Government and the opposition under the auspices of the OAS? First, nobody asked him. Second, the agreements are there and it seems at best inappropriate fro the Director of the CNE to even say anything about it.

And then as if this was not enough, all of a sudden the Government begins asking for even more international observers. I agree that the more the merrier when it comes for international observation of electoral processes. But the time to invite them was at the beginning, not in the tenth inning of a game with variable rules and a ball which randomly changes size each inning.

The problem is that most people even forget that both Gaviria and Carter were originally invited by the Chavez administration. In fact, those that talked with the OAS Secretary General during his first visit were amazed at his naiveté with respect to the Chavez administration and the events of April 2002 But he learned fast when he decided to stay to “solve” the Venezuelan conflict. Except he learned where the bad faith was coming from and he realized on which side true democracy laid.

The same is true of the Carter Center, which never truly explained whether the Chavez administration had or not given a sizable donation to its projects. In the then words of the same Jennifer McCoy that today goes to the CNE and is amazed by the attempt to eliminate more than a million signatures by the opposition: “The Carter Center has not received any donation related to its activities in Venezuela”. Get it? The money could have gone to unrelated activities, but I stray from my point.

But all of a sudden, Gaviria, Carter, McCoy, Diez are all enemies. They question everything the CNE does or attempts to do. They privately threaten to leave if the cheating continues. So, it is time to get rid of them. The story of Chavez’ life, invite, use, get rid of them. Ask MAS, Lameda, Miquilena, Esqueda, Chaderton(?), Rosendo and so many others!. Now he is going international. Watch out foreign debt bondholders you are on his list, but first he needs to get rid of Nobrega!

And then we come to the good old USA, which mostly ignored Chavez for his first few years in office until the TACO event took place. (Temporary Absence of Constitutional Order)*. Ever since TACO, everyone wants to get the USA involved. But yesterday Chavez said not only did it get involved, but it was responsible for the blood. Tell that to the millions of Venezuelans that marched that day. Unless the Irishly-disappeared-Puente El Llaguno shooters were CIA, working for Bernal, it is hard for the US to have been that involved.

But it has worked for Fidel, why not for Hugo, attack those damn Yankees for signing A-Rod! (sorry, wrong game), killing Venezuelans or whatever. At least the A-Rod part it’s true. Of course, this is simply Cuban advice, attack the US, you will gain popularity. Except that Fidel took over in Cuba when TV was as much of a dream as ubiquitous broadband is today, Disney was Fantasia and Dalmatians and MacDonald’s was a Scottish name or a guy who had a farm in some song. It may not work here, where most people somehow like the US, to the consternation of the French, despite Bush, Clinton and Don King.

So, the strategy seems to be delay, fight, delay, fight and long for the day when if Chavez is recalled, Jose Vicente will become President, he will appoint Chavez as VP, will resign and we will get Chavez back in twenty four hours. Sound far fetched? So did questioning 70% of the signatures two weeks ago.

But seriously, the CNE appears to want not to invalidate the signatures in the forms with the same handwriting (planas), but instead have anyone that signed but does not appear in the lists show up during a five day period and scream: I did sign the first time! Of course, we need two weeks to plan it out (15 days), first we will do it for the Chavista recall of opposition Deputies (five days), we will rest for five days (five days) and then we will do it for the President’s recall. (Five days).

Now, nobody says anything about how the CNE will evaluate those that said they signed, what somebody else wrote out with their signature and fingerprint. Do we have to make up new rules? What if there is a plana of a plana? Do we use witnesses? Who verifies? Who counts? Do we do it base two or ten? Do we publish the list of those who said they had signed, to say they had signed, what they had not filled, but signed? Or should we just be democratic and believe them? We may be talking 2007 or 2021…

And then, there is a very sensible proposal by the OAS. Let’s hire some fingerprint verifiers abroad.  Have them do a sample. Discard within statistical errors that the fingerprints were forged. Move forward. Too sensible? Of course! These OAS and Carter technocrats make Chavez feel much like PDVSA technocrats did in the good old days. Statistics! Errors! Profits! Production! Money! Votes! Prosperity! Democracy! Justice! Humbug!

The people don’t want any of that. They simply want Hugo Chavez! Why vote on it? Isn’t it obvious? It’s a landslide, so why bother?

*Told you I would use it some day!