The Devil's Excrement

In a clear effort to intimidate those that plan to march tomorrow the Minister of Defense spoke to the nation tonight in a broadcast over all TV channels. He said that three of the marches that are scheduled for tomorrow can not have permits because they go by the “Security Zones’ defined by the military last December. The concept had not been revived until now and would have made many of the pro-Chavez marches illegal. He warnedf the citizens that “undesirable” events that take place tomorrow will be the sole responsability of the organizers. In this manner, once again, the Government skirts its responsabilities, intimidates the people and if and when the chavistas cause violence tomorrow, those responsible will be none other than the opposition leaders. Such is life in the bizarre Government of the self-appointed all-powerful all-knowing President Hugo Chavez. He thinks he is the law. Not for long.

As I write, the recall festivities have already started. There are fireworks exploding, Plaza Altamira is already full of traffic and people are honking their horns. Only 9 PM and lot’s of noise, the party was supposed to start at 11:30 PM, but I guess people want to warm it up early.

While Chavez’ MVR has been very quiet about the referendum, bypassing some statements like that by the Vice-President saying “He does not see a referendum this year”, the fireworks in what could become a conflict began today in earnest. The opposition and the Government began trading barbs at each other, when the Minister and the Vice-Minister of the Interior and Justice denied that the opposition had the required permits for tomorrow’s rally/demonstration/march/petition hand in. While Enrique Mendoza, the Governor of Miranda State and member of the Coordinadora Democratica, assured the media that the permits had been handed in on the 12th. and had been handed in to the Ministry and communicated to the Vice-President, the Government asked the opposition to cancel the march since it could not guarantee the safety of the people. As usual, the People’s Defender did nothing but side with the Government, expressing his concern at the absence of permits. Meanwhile, the Mayors of Baruta and Chacao where large parts of the marches will take place, said the permits had been given.  Thus, this becomes the first important conflict on the road to the formal recall referendum. I must say it makes me feel uneasy about tomorrow, when the Vice-Minister of the Interior and Justice says that the marches should be cancelled because in every previous instance when there were no permits there was loss of life, I can’t help but be concerned. Are we being threatened or intimidated?. I really don’t know. What I do know, is that I will be there tomorrow no matter what.

In a positive development, the leaders of Chavez’ MVR in the National Asembly said today that they will obey the decision by the Venezuelan Supreme Court to name the members of the National Electoral Council (CNE) which organizes and decides on all electoral matters. This is a positive devlopment (Yes, I am saying something nice about the Chavistas!) as it implies the law will be followed. The only question is why does the same leadership allow some Deputies to act like they do (See story below)

In an outrageous move, outlaw General Acosta Carles in the company of Deputy Iris Varela, led a group of laid off workers and took over a plant of paper company Venepal. Venepal is a paper products company that has been having difficulties ever since the currency was overvalued. The company had decided to close some plants and attempt to restructure it, while selling some assets that are still worth something. On Monday, Acosta Carles, who is famous for taking over beer distribution plants during teh strike and his famous and disgusting “burp” in front of all the media at the time, joined Miss Varela, an MVR Deputy, in leading a group of disgruntled workers in an “Assembly” that decided to take over the plant. The company has asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court for an injunction, but so far all we know is that two people strongly identified with the Chavez administartion have taken over private property without any respect for the law or without any order by any legal authority to do so. Such is life in a country without law, where anarchy is promoted from the top.

In an outrageous move, outlaw General Acosta Carles in the company of Deputy Iris Varela, led a group of laid off workers and took over a plant of paper company Venepal. Venepal is a paper products company that has been having difficulties ever since the currency was overvalued. The company had decided to close some plants and attempt to restructure it, while selling some assets that are still worth something. On Monday, Acosta Carles, who is famous for taking over beer distribution plants during teh strike and his famous and disgusting “burp” in front of all the media at the time, joined Miss Varela, an MVR Deputy, in leading a group of disgruntled workers in an “Assembly” that decided to take over the plant. The company has asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court for an injunction, but so far all we know is that two people strongly identified with the Chavez administartion have taken over private property without any respect for the law or without any order by any legal authority to do so. Such is life in a country without law, where anarchy is promoted from the top.

Tomorrow is Aug. 19th. the mid-point of Chavez‘ Presidential term, as redefined by the new Constitution. That is, his term is six years, but he has been in power for over four years. The reason is that since the new Constitution redefined the Presidential term to six years, Chavez ran again after a year and a half in office and this “new term” redefined the mid-point of his Presidential term.

The mid-point is extremely significant because Venezuelans can ask for a recall referendum of any elected official after the mid-point of his mandate. In Chávez’ case, if his mandate were recalled, he could not run again as, as stated by the Constitution, a “new” President would be elected thirty days after the recall referendum takes place. A year ago, Hugo Chávez sued to talk about this referendum everyday, he would tell the opposition they ha to wait of it to get rid of him. His tune changed once the date started getting close. From bills to increase the number of Justices in the Supreme Court, to saying that the opposition can’t hand in the petition that has the signatures asking for the recall referendum, Chavez and his cohorts have been attempting to block or dismiss any possibility of a referendum taking place. As recent as yesterday, the Country’s Vice-{President Jose Vicente Rangel told the Colombian newspaper El Espectador, that a referendum can not take place this year. Statements like this reveal the frame of mind of the Executive branch of Government in Venezuela. Making such a statement is absolutely irresponsible for a Vice-President. Irresponsible, because the Venezuelan Constitution is very clear, the Electoral Board will have thirty days to validate the request for the recall referendum. If validated, the referendum, once again according to the Constitution, will have to take place before ninety days are up form the time of the submission of the petition. That implies, that if the opposition is allowed to hand in the signatures on Wednesday as it plans to, a referendum should take place before Nov. 19th. if everything is in order. Obviously, there may not be things in order, but it is not the Vice-President’s job to judge or even speculate on these issues. But this is simply a sign of the type of things we will be facing in the next two months.

Polls suggest that Chavez would get less than 30% support in a recall referendum. Thus, he would suffer a terrible defeat for a man that was at some point in time so popular among his people. The Government dismisses these polls saying they don’t reflect reality. But the truth is that even pollsters that in the past were considered to be biased towards Chavez, are showing very similar results. Moreover, real elections in unions, student organizations at universities and other organizations have had outcomes that are surprisingly like those of most polls on the referendum. It is thus a mystery to me why Chavez allowed this date to arrive without looking for an alternative of his own. A recall referendum is just about the worst possible event that he can participate in. He will be running against himself, he will not be able to run afterwards and he will not be able to say that he did well, like he could if he had proposed early elections through the National Assembly.

It is thus a mystery what is in Chavez’ mind. For a while, it looked like there would be no Electoral Board to organize the lection, but the Venezuelan Supreme Court will choose that Board before Aug. 24^th. Arguing that the Assembly incurred in omission as defined in the Constitution. This may be a trap, but having an Electoral Board makes it more difficult to stop the recall referendum, so that people are getting optimistic that we will have one (Including myself).

The opposition has called for parties tomorrow night. People will hold parties, join caravans as the 19^th. Turns into the 20^th. Then on Wednesday the 20^th. (To avoid any interpretation that is not the 19^th. But the day after that the petition can be handed in). there will be a rally where marches coming from various parts of Caracas will join in Libertador Avenue. Once everyone is there a group will go towards the headquarters of the CNE and hand in the petition. At that time, for us it would be like Cesar said :” Alea jacta est”. Our die will be cast and we can only hope that the Constitution will be respected and we can get out of this political crisis without further loss of life. Unfortunately, while I am more optimistic that the referendum will take place, I am not so certain that more useless violence will not take place.

In an announcement that left more lingering doubts and confusion than anything else, the Ministry of Energy and Mines announced the revival of the old Corporacion Venezolana del Petroleo (CVP). According to the announcement, approximately 1.5 million barrels in oil production from PDVSA have been transferred to CVP, a little over half of the country’s oil production. The announcement was made even more confusing by the creation of a trust with 480 billion Bolivars with CVP funds, which would be used to build housing for Venezuelans. Apparently, the idea is to have CVP play a more active role in solving the country’s social problems, a role played by PDVSA to a small degree in the past, for which it was always criticized sharply. So far, the Government has given no details as to how the financial restructuring of PDVSA will occur, and which of the two companies will assume the debt and/or the guarantees given in some of the bonds issued by PDVSA. Similarly, it is not clear how the production assets, investments and administrative structures will be divided between the two companies. What is most remarkable about the announcement is that the decision has been taken by a very reduced number of people, without discussion, justification and the release of the details, which was one of the biggest criticisms by Chávez of how PDVSA was run when he was campaigning for the Presidency. Moreover, it is remarkable, to say the least, that the current administration of PDVSA continues to divide up the company in pieces at a time when the worldwide trend in the oil business is exactly the opposite.

Hugo Chavez has been very clever in manipulating the Venezuelan political system, but when he loses or can’t figure out how to do something, he has always resorted to a peculiar form of escapism in which he simply ignores issues. Case in point is his almost total silence on the recall referendum that only a year ago he was hailing as the ultimate form of democracy or his lack of interest in economic matters because he simply can’t understand them. But never one for the small gesture, he arrived today in Paraguay and showed this form of escapism by proposing a different type of impossible referendum: A referendum in all Latin American countries to approve a moratorium on the external debt of all the countries for a period of five years. He talked about 100 million people backing the proposal giving them an enormous power to negotiate with the very powerful. Curious isn’t it? millions of Venezuelans want a referendum but the very powerful Hugo Chavez ignores it or tries to block it in all instances, but then he goes on a tangent with such a grandiose and obviously impractical proposal. I wonder what all the Presidents of the various Latin American countries present are thinking about the proposal?

The deadline set by the Supremme Court  is over and the National Assembly did not even attempt to pick the National Electoral Commission (CNE). In fact, the Assembly has called for a week’s recess and will reconvene after the Supreme Court has picked the new Board sometime before or on August 24th.. Thus, a very significant stage begins next week for the future of the country’s democracy. Let’s hope there are no tricks goinmg forward….