The Devil's Excrement

If there is something this Government has failed to do, is to plan ahead. In the Electric sector, as an example, planning was terrible, after canceling some hydro-electric projects that were in the pipeline, nothing else was planned to replace it. While the decision to cancel these projects could be justified, not finding alternatives to it was.

The same can be said about many things. Decisions are made, but implications and alternatives are not considered. Crime grows, but little is done to fix the problems at jails, or even to improve jails or the judicial system. Housing is similar, as the Government has been more and more incompetent on the housing front, the plans have been set aside until the floods hit in December and Chavez decided to make housing a priority, a dangerous strategy given that he is unlikely to have anything to show for it by election time in December 2012.

And then we come to Caracas. A mess of a city under the combination of no major roads built in twelve years, unchecked crime and low gasoline prices. This has created a hostile city, where people spend four to five hours commuting, the subway does not work, public transport is a mess and there are traffic jams late at night and now even on weekends.

Nothing has been done for Caracas on most fronts during the long twelve Chavez years. The President has said that he did not emphasize roads and highways, because he had other priorities. I disagree with that viewpoint, but it is a valid one.

But there can be no justification then to now want to attract people to Caracas. It is true that people will continue flocking to Caracas no matter what the Government does to stop them, but hey, please, just don’t promote it.

But that is exactly what the Venezuelan President is doing. Last weekend he spelled it out when he said:

“We can fit another Caracas within Caracas”

A true folly by the Venezuelan President. Caracas is collapsing. Traffic gets worse, the subway gets worse, the water problems get worse, electrical problems get worse, crime gets worse, unemployment gets worse,  sewage problems get worse and yes, there is even flooding in Caracas, so why would Chavez want to fit another Caracas within Caracas?

Because he discovered that the housing problem is glamorous and may just be what tips him over the top in 2012.

Which is stupid, because even if he started one housing project today (which ain’t happening) it will be difficult to have it finished by the end of 2012. He can bring Chinese, Belorussian, Turkish or whatever housing experts, but even if they can build houses instantly, they still have to provide services to it, including water, electricity and sewage, as well as digging foundations and getting permits, which are not going to go away because Chavez says so.

It is not that Hugo is out of touch, he definitely is, but this is simply that he keeps jumping from one of his inventions to the other because he thinks it will gain him popularity. Never mind experts, studies or problems, Hugo’s creativity has no limits, only those of his twisted mind.

But the problem in the end is that you can’t just move people into the city, least of all Chavez’ folly of doubling the population, without a commensurate increase in the infrastructure, including all the basics, until then forget it, you will turn a very disagreeable city into Hell.

Even if it seems like that is what they have been trying to do all along…

Today we hear about some 20 plots of land (earlier reports said there more) in the Chacao area of Caracas which were invaded last night by organized Chavistas. By now, the squatters have been removed, the Government claims this was done violently, but it respects property right, despite the fact that it was Chavez that told his followers to look for these unused plots of lands.

All of this has reminded me of a curious phenomenon I have been noticing around Caracas for a while: The presence of cranes in unused plots of land. They arrive, they build a tin house, set up the crane and nothing happens after that.

Asking around, what I determined is that in most cases these cranes are bought or leased simply as protection for property rights. You set up the crane and you can claim your plot of land is being used. Simple introduce a project asking for the permits, dig some dirt and have a crane in the plot of land. Your land is being used, it will not be expropriated and if they ask why it is going slow, you can argue lack of funds, the loan has not come though and survive another year under the revolution.

Another quirky distortion under the Chavez revolution, Thanks God that construction activity is so slow, that there are lots of cranes to go around.

So, last Saturday Hugo Chavez reneged on his Marxist beliefs, when he laughed at those that that claim there is a communist project being put in place in Venezuela.

Let’s see the evidence:

1) He has inundated Venezuela with thousands of Cubans, a country which, as you know is self-proclaimed Communist country.

2) His own buddy and friend (now in jail) Genera Baduel, the man that saved Chavez after he had a bunch of people killed in 2002, said that we had to stop this communist project.

3) Even more curiously, exactly a year ago, Hugo Chavez said in exactly the same venue, his annual speech to the National Assembly: “I am a Marxist”. Here is the video:

He says: “I am a revolutionary and I am also a Marxist…for the first time I assume Marxism…I assume it…the same way I assume Christianity…But Marxism is without doubt the most advanced theory…the most advanced proposal towards the world Christ came to offer us….”

So, by now you may be confused, if it is so good and so advanced, why is it that this is not where he is taking Venezuela?

Or maybe you remember Hugo when he was saying he was not a Marxist, but a socialist. Or maybe you remember him when he said that he did not believe in the after life, a funny sort of Christianity:

But maybe, just maybe, you, like Hugo you believe in polls…

Last Saturday we saw another episode of Chavez’ show, the long running and best selling program in Venezuela’s TV, now in its thirteenth year. And the title of this post follows another long running program in Venezuela: ¿Cuanto vale el show?

Because in the end that is all we have had in those thirteen years: a show run very well by the President, in which he makes believe that he is running the country, helping the poor, caring for the poor, but in the end it is all fake, just another show.

A very costly one at that, as billion of dollars have been wasted in allowing loyal incompetents to run the country. While in the early stages Chavez had some people who knew what they were doing, they are fewer and far between these days. He is surrounded by the loyal and chosen few, most of which have no management experience or very poor one at that.

The Saturday show proved that Chavez has had no plan for housing or crime for thirteen years.  Chavez sounded more like a recently arrived President than one with so many years in power. As usual, he refuses to accept responsibility saying the crime problem is not his fault, it is everyone’s fault! Sure, who replaced all professional police heads around the country by loyal military friends who could be trusted? It was Hugo himself.

He did admit that he had failed in housing, promising 150,000 housing units in 2011, because now he is in charge. Mercy! How many housing programs has Chavez announced of a much smaller scale only to be met with failure?

And he lied through his teeth, talking about the inflation at Caldera’s time, without realizing that world inflation was not only high at the time, but the country saw its banking system decimated by a crisis of Caldera’s own doing as oil prices hovered around $12. Had Caldera had Chavez’ oil prices he could have bailed out the system as easily as Hugo was able to hide it a year or so ago. But Hugo’s inflation has actually been comparable to Caldera’s

The same thing when Hugo talked about agriculture. He only talked about the rice crop being bad in 2010, but it was across the board, and the 2% plus he mentioned for rice is fifteen times smaller than what experts say happened in 2010.

But who cares about the truth, this is just another show!

Unfortunately, Chavez did not get any smile from opposition Deputies, who held back as much as they could even when the jokes were really bad.

But it is all a show. The other day, I posted about the electric crisis. Chavez claimed to have solved it last Saturday, it has been taken care of by Hugo himself, but fails to explain today’s black out in six states and in parts of Caracas. (Radar de Los Barrios reports lights went out at 10 AM in El Valle in Western Caracas and at 7 PM the electricity was still down)

The problem is that Hugo has gotten away with this for quite a while and high oil prices are likely to allow him to continue for a while. A commenter in the electricity post a few days ago, CarlosElio, proved this very eloquently. He reminded us that in 2005, Chavez had “Gabinetes Moviles” a new form of his variety show in which he held Cabinet meetings in different parts of the country and made it look like he was solving and attacking the country’s problems. There are three such posts, here, here and here, but just looking at the first one should be enough. (All three are worth reading if you know Spanish, Anna Black makes some very witty comments about what people are saying)

In this first Gabinete Movil, which took place of all places in Anzoategui State, one of the states that suffered the most last year’s electric crisis, you can see the style. It was all show, you can read the details there but it went something like this, Here is the link to the full video:

The Mayor: Wel,l lights go out seven eight times (a day) and when lights go out, pumps go out (no water) and I would like help…because here in Anzoategui we have lots of water problems

.

Please Jackeline (Farias) don’t leave without talking to the Mayors, just there in a small meeting and we can get a small working plan (plancito…)

Why do lights go out so much there?

The Mayor: Its grave , Mr President it’s grave

President: Which Electric system do you have there? What is happening with Eleoriente (The electric company there)

The Governor: I would say 70% of the State has been affected by a very grave energy crisis that has been going on for years (Blame the fourth, of course!). I was talking to the Minister of Energy and we agreed to make a working plan and a technical meeting to truly get rid of this problem….It is humble people that are being affected…this a a State problem Mr. President…

President of Eleoriente: I have been in my position since December (five months). The situation is critical due to the lack of investment and growth…

Chavez (looking Presidential) And what is your proposal? Answer: To invest. On what? says Chavez…then you should talk to the Minister of Energy and the Minister of the Environment on water.

So, it all looked very efficient, except, NOTHING was ever done. Anzoategui was one of the states that had the worst and longest blackouts in all of the country in 2010. (Remember this is circa May 2005, almost six years ago!)

Why?

Because once the Producers, the cameras, the teams, the Cabinet came back to Caracas, there was no meeting, no “plancito” no investment. Nothing.

It was all about the show, having Chavez look like he is giving orders and solving problems, but in the end, nothing was done.

But the show was a huge success. Chavez did these mobile Cabinets for a while until he got tired of that variety of a show and came up with a new version.

The problem is that it works! Show after show convinces people that he is working hard, getting stuff done, but nothing is being done. These incompetent fools (not the President of Eleoriente, he is long gone and has been replaced by four or five nobodies) came back to Caracas, tired and ready for another show, a weekend with the family and by the time they thought about the “plancito” or the meeting, off they went to a new Gabinete Movil in Altagracia de Orituco. And there they went through the charade again of meetings and plans and technical solutions.

But the show must go on. And that is all the revolution knows how to do.

But it is a very expensive, very destructive show. New announcements every weekend which translate into mini-shows like expropriations that don’t work. Invasions that yield noise. Scares that make people emigrate. Crazy ideas that make no sense but have to be implemented because Chavez asked for them. And a year from now, nobody remembers any of it.

Not even Chavez, because the show must go on, no matter how much it costs. It is the Hugo Chavez show!

The Oil Drum has been writing about Venezuela’s oil, nothing really new in the articles, but a really nice up to date summary of the status of the Faja with some projections about when things will go online that I still think have to be pushed back two or three years.

What I did like about the article was this long term chart which has production, consumption and imports in it since the mid sixties:

The imports curve is worrisome, as is the consumption curve, I wished they had shown a table of the last few years, it is hard to tell the exact numbers as it is. Interestingly enough the data comes from BP’s statistical review. Younger people may enjoy seeing the numbers all the way back to the 60’s.

In a new low for the revolution, the Tour of Tachira State or “Vuelta al Tachira” as it is known, had its first stage canceled due to problems with the infrastructure, i.e. the roads were so bad that after a while cyclists themselves decided they had to stop.(Even the invited Cuban cyclists decided to withdraw, apparently the roads were wosre than those in Cuba) After barely 15 minutes of the race, they all decided they had had enough danger as it was.

This all happened in San Fernando de Apure, a neighboring State to Tachira where the race was slated to begin. The race has continued after the first day mishap, as the infrastructure deterioration now has ahd an impact on sports.

Meanwhile our “socialist” President spends a few million dollars to have a Formula 1 exhibit in Caracas with Venezuelan Pastor Maldonado, who will soon debut in the Formula 1 circuit.

Oh, the pretty revolution!!!

So, you thought I was negative about Venezuela? Well, respected economist Walter Molano recently wrote a piece entitled “Venezuela: Hell on Earth” that will make you quiver. You see, Molano is the guy you read if you want to know what is going to happen in two or three years and since he does not work for a big investment bank he tells it like it is. But his last piece is so strong, it even makes the Devil worry more:

“As Colombia transforms itself into an oasis of prosperity, Venezuela descends deeper into the dungeons of hell…Under the reckless tyranny of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s cornucopia of abundant natural resources, sound infrastructure and skilled labor was squandered away.”

Rough, no? But we all know it’s the truth. Chavez is surrounded by the most incompetent of Venzuelans who create little fiefdoms to impose their will, whether it is gaining power or making money.

Meanwhile, the fanatics cheer, always reminding you a an irrelevant past or what Chavez will do in the future, ignoring 12 years of no accomplishments.

In the end, it is sad. Venezuela has really squandered twelve years and the biggest oil windfall in its history and all Chavez and cronies can do is hail non-existing achievements like the 3 million Hectares expropriated and “under production”. Funny, if they were, agricultural production would not be down. But tell that to a fanatic.

But the propaganda machine keeps raving about the fake past and the failed future and the fanatics keep cheering. They always will, ask the Cubans…

But Cuba is looking to get out of it, while Venezuela’s economy shrinks and shrinks, as politics rules the day and Venezuela’s is the only economy in emerging markets to have shrunk in 2010, the one with the worst inflation at 27% and the one with increasingly limited democracy and basically an ignorant and incompetent Dictator running the country.

Well, I don’t know if Venezuela is Hell on Earth, but it is certainly Purgatory and going down…

Note added: A reader notes that Purgatory is not a place according to the Pope, but I have enough with political controversies to introduce theological ones.