The Devil's Excrement

Today, Secretary General of the OAS, Cesar Gaviria announced that an agreement had been reached in which both sides in the negotiating table and will sign a declaration agaisnt violence and in favor of peace and democracy. Given President Chavez’ aggressive statements this weekend agaisnt practically everyone, it amkes me wonder what this all means and whether I should cheer or not. I think I will wait to see what the the agreement says and what Chavez does before I get enthused……

Yesterday political analyst and oil expert Alberto Quiroz Corradi said that he would not be surprised if Chavez decided all of a sudden to have general elections. I did not think much of it, but today former Chavez co-conspirator in the 92 coup, Francisco Arias Cardenas, said exactly the same thing, making me wonder if something may be up. Arias Cardenas, who ran against Chavez in the 2000 campaign, said that during the last week Chavez appeared to be campaigning and that based on his knowledge of Chavez’ personality, he thinks that Chavez may surprise the opposition by having the National Assembly approve a Constitutional amendment to force general elections within two months. The idea would be that the opposition, who has serious differences among its members, will have no time to react and organize and would field three or four candidates. In such a field Chavez would have a chance. While it sounds interesting, I think even this may simply be too late to save Chavez. My feeling is that even in  a field of four or five Chavez may lose. The reason is simple, while the opposition is highly motivated and would go vote, I get the feeling the Chavistas will not do the same. Thus, I would expect less than 40% abstention for the opoosition and 50% plus for Chavez’ supporters, which would defeat Chavez even in a large field of candidates.

Yesterday I explained the conditions for a recall referendum based on article 75 of the Constitution. The Problem is that I used the version in a Government site, which is apparently not the correct version, but one of the four issued at the end of the Constitutent Assembly and definitely an incorrect one. Sound confusing? It certainly is, because how do I know which is the correct one? Until I find out and I am sure of the answer I will not correct what I wrote. Stay tuned….

Not only has the Chavez Government established price controls on hundrerds of items, but the prices at which the control ahs been set are in some cases those going back to the second quarter of last year, when the exchange rate was Bs. 1,000 per US$. The controls are being imposed at the same time the rate has been regulated at Bs. 1,600 to the US$. By regulated I mean there is an office that will hand out dollars, but there is no guarantee you will get them anyway. If you don’t you have to go to the black market, but if you are going to lose money you just give up and dont produce anything. Chavez seems to be trying all of the failed formulas of the 60’s and 70’s in Latin America. Problem is, we all lose.

In a decision that may be very important medium term, the Supreme Court said yesterday that the signatures for a recall referendum do not have to be collected after the date that the referendum is possible, but may be collected in advanced. This means that the signatures gathered on Feb. 2nd. can be used for the recall referendum of Presdent Cahvez. The Government had argued that they could not. In fact, the Vice President said Feb. 3d. that they were useless, because of the date they were obtained and the fact that they could not be audited, whatever that meant.

One of the arguments people abroad always use is: Why can’t you just wait until the recall referendum in August? My answer is simple: Why should I believe there will be a recall referendum in August? This is, of course, a very subjective opinion in my part, but it is based in the way that Chavez and his partisans have manipulated the law and the Constitution in the last four years to get their own way at every single instance. But now I can make a very solid argument.

According to Venezuela’s Constitution (article 75), the Deputies in the National Assembly can also be recalled at the midpoint of their period, which is five years. Since they were elected more than two and a half years ago, we should be able to do this the same way we “might” recall Chavez in August. The requirements are simple, you need 25% of the registered voters to sign a petition to recall the Deputy and then you need a similar number to show up and vote for the recall with a simple majority. So, at the Firmazo (Big sign-up)  on Feb 2nd. signatures were gathered to recall those Chavista Deputies elected individually in 2000. Below I show the names of the best known Deputies, the number of votes they received in their election in the year 2000 and the number that signed the petition to have them recalled two weeks ago.

                                 Votos received (2000)             Number who signed petition

Iris Varela                    14,998                                           32.282

Nicolas Maduro            26.360                                           45.720  

Tarek William Saab       26.710                                           44.136

Ramon Dario Vivas       43.110                                           56.754

Cilia Flores                   22.852                                           51.480                  

As you can see, in all cases more people signed for the recall than these Deputies even received votes for when elected. Thus, you might say: Easy, just submit the petitions and recall all of them!

Well, not quite. As usual everything is not what it seems in Venezuela. When the Consultative referendum was suspended by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, the Court sneaked in a prohibition to hold any form of election, until a decision is made or a new Electoral Commission is elected. There is no time limit for the Court to decide and Chavez’ MVR party controls whether to elect or not a new Electoral Commission. Thus, we can recall 30 Deputies because we have the signatures, but in this “democracy” there can be no elections until further notice. Some democracy, no? And then people wonder why I am skeptical that there will be a recall referendum in August!

Perhaps the most depressing part of the day was to have the Secretary General of the OAS, Cesar Gaviria say that there will be no agreement against violence this week, because the Opposition and the Government can’t agree on the wording. To me this sounds both depressing and ominous…..

The Head of the newly formed exchange control organization Cadivi, said today among many other things ” we should all pray so that the oil industry is brought back to normal and we can then have more dollars”. (How about bringing back the workers, we know it would work). Later he showed his ignorance when he said that the Brady bond exchange mechanism was suspended because it led to capital flight. This mechansim, by which you buy a Venezuelan Brady bond in local currency and sell it in the US for US$, does not constitute capital flight since you need someone doing exactly the opposite, so that the net result is simply zero. This is the man in charge!

The National Asembly approved today the content bill, also known as the “muzzle” bill. Aimed at silencing the media, the bill was passed at 4 AM. Not bad for an Assembly that after three years has yet to issue the bils required by the Chavez Constitution. Such is the level of irresponsability of this Government. Vice-President Rangel said that it could not be a muzzle law if it was approved democratically. What an interpretation…..it was not approved democratically, it was approved by the slim Chavez majority in the Assembly as it was presented by them, without a single modification. Democracy, ha! AS established in teh Venezuelan Constitution, the second and final discussion will take place in two weeks, after that it becomes law.

Two days ago the Venezuelan Foreign Minsiter left suddenly for Brazil using as an excuse that it was going to have talks with its counterpart in Brazil about the possibility of expanding the Group of Friends. I did not buy this explanation, if Hugo Chavez himself failed to convince the President of Brazil directly to increase the number of members of the group, what could the Foreign Minister possibly obtain? Moreover, the trip was made more suspicious by the fact that Brazil is the country considered to be the closest to Chavez and is also the Coordinator of the Group of Friends.

Well, today my suspicions have proven to be correct as a number of reports indicate that the trip was actually prompted by the Brazilian Foreign Minsiter, Celso Amorin. The reason, to express its deep concern over the absence of any gesture on the part of the Chavez Government towards promoting the negotiations led by OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria. Reportedly Amorin told the Venezuelan foreign Minsiter that he was dismayed at the lack of cooperation on the part of the Venezuelan Government. Amorin told Chaderton that the opposition ending the General Strike had not been matched by any concrete measures by Chavez and his Government and the attitude had been exactly the opposite, boasting that this was a victory. What Amorin is doing is simply discovering the true Hugo Chavez that Venezuelans have come to know in the last four years. Hopefully, the scolding will pressure the Chavez administration into negotiating a way out of the crisis.