Nice pictures from Santos
September 26, 2007Santos and Eduardo are in this wonderful competition, I have a set from each one, I will randomly start with Santos
Left¨Cymbidiella Rhodochylla from Africa. Right: Rhyncostilis
Left: Oncidium Papilio Right: I think thsi is a Macradenia, not sure which one.
Hugo Chavez on a roll in his fantasyland of projects, while spewing his ignorance and hate
September 26, 2007One
really has to wonder as to what polls are telling the Government, as the
autocrat continued yesterday his foray into total fantasyland, this
time venturing with his imagination into the educational field with his new and improved Mision Alma Mater,
which he said will consist of 58 new universities, even if when he went
into the details, it turns out only 29 of them were actually “new”.
Chavez said he would create 14 new territorial universities, whatever
that means, and ten new “specialized” universities which will cover the
arts, languages, basic sciences, agricultural sciences, fiscal sciences
(??), economics, telematics, hydrocarbons, security and tourism. He
would also create the University of the South, to open the doors of kids
from Latin America and the Caribbean, a concept which I am sure
Brazilian, Argentineans, Chilean and Uruguayans will probably smirk at,
given the high quality of their universities. He would round the 29
“new” universities, with 4 technological institutes, which provide short
careers.
The rest will come from upgrading
“institutes” (he did not specify which ones) and technological
institutes to universities. Chavez offered to give Bs. 1.4 trillion for
this project to “build” these universities. Thus, the total amount
allocated will be US$ 12 million per university in the project, not
exactly a huge amount for an institution of higher learning.
“institutes” (he did not specify which ones) and technological
institutes to universities. Chavez offered to give Bs. 1.4 trillion for
this project to “build” these universities. Thus, the total amount
allocated will be US$ 12 million per university in the project, not
exactly a huge amount for an institution of higher learning.
But wait! While Chavez made it sound like this was a new venture, this “Mision” is actually a rehash of one with the same name and budget announced last November.
At the time, Chavez called the country’s universities “capitalists” and
said his system would be one of quality, at which point a girl got up
and basically told him that the unit of the Armed Forces University in
her state, which she attended, did not have much infrastructure,
including no library, and was overcrowded. Chavez got out of the
impasse by saying he would consolidate and improve what was available,
but the autocrat is not a man of execution and consolidation but a man
of empty promises.
At the time, Chavez called the country’s universities “capitalists” and
said his system would be one of quality, at which point a girl got up
and basically told him that the unit of the Armed Forces University in
her state, which she attended, did not have much infrastructure,
including no library, and was overcrowded. Chavez got out of the
impasse by saying he would consolidate and improve what was available,
but the autocrat is not a man of execution and consolidation but a man
of empty promises.
\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>Because you have to wonder why Chavez had to announce this project and why little has happened since it was first announced over ten months ago. But hey, that is average in the robolution, fantastic hyperbole, incredible promises and no execution and results. As Chavez told his one time Minister of Finance (now jailed) in 2002 when the Minister told him there was no money for new announcements: “You don’t understand, I live off these announcements”.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>But let’s look at some of the problems with this announcement. Besides the low budget, how is it going to be staffed? The problem facing higher education today in Venezuela is the dwindling number of students going for graduate degrees, as well as the brain drain among people with graduate degrees, which find few opportunities and low salaries. Yesterday, Benjamin Sharifker, Head of Simon Bolivar University, one of the best in the country if not the best, said that half of the openings they have go unfilled for lack of qualified candidates. So, how is Chavez going to fill the thousands of positions required to teach at all of these new or improved institutions if he can not even have his pet project, the Bolivarian University, function properly?\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>In fact, a friend of mine has been involved with one of the projects mentioned above. She is in charge of “building” a university for 1,200 students. Finding the land, designing the buildings and hiring the contractors. She has asked what careers there will be, how many, how many students per classroom, how many professors and what type of educational terms there will be. The only answer she has received is that the classrooms should have no more than 50 students. Some project, no?\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>Since he was fantasizing, Chavez repeated that Venezuela will become a nuclear country, because he has a unclear commission, but much like the Mision Alma Mater, you have to wonder how any nuclear project can be carried out with nuclear engineers and scientists. We have heard many times about that commission but we have yet to hear who is in it. Maybe in mathematical terms, it is simply an empty set.”,1]
);
//–>
Because
you have to wonder why Chavez had to announce this project again and why
little has happened since it was first announced over ten months ago.
But hey, that is average in the robolution, fantastic hyperbole,
incredible promises and no execution and results. As Chavez told his
one time Minister of Finance (now jailed) in 2002 when the Minister
told him there was no money for new announcements: “You don’t
understand, I live off these announcements”.
you have to wonder why Chavez had to announce this project again and why
little has happened since it was first announced over ten months ago.
But hey, that is average in the robolution, fantastic hyperbole,
incredible promises and no execution and results. As Chavez told his
one time Minister of Finance (now jailed) in 2002 when the Minister
told him there was no money for new announcements: “You don’t
understand, I live off these announcements”.
But
let’s look at some of the problems with this announcement. Besides the
low budget, how is it going to be staffed? The problem facing higher
education today in Venezuela is the dwindling number of students going
for graduate degrees, as well as the brain drain among people with
graduate degrees, which find few opportunities and low salaries.
Yesterday, Benjamin Sharifker, Head of Simon Bolivar University, one of
the best in the country if not the best, said that half of the openings
they have go unfilled for lack of qualified candidates. So, how is
Chavez going to fill the thousands of positions required to teach at
all of these new or improved institutions if he can not even have his
pet project, the Bolivarian University, function properly?
let’s look at some of the problems with this announcement. Besides the
low budget, how is it going to be staffed? The problem facing higher
education today in Venezuela is the dwindling number of students going
for graduate degrees, as well as the brain drain among people with
graduate degrees, which find few opportunities and low salaries.
Yesterday, Benjamin Sharifker, Head of Simon Bolivar University, one of
the best in the country if not the best, said that half of the openings
they have go unfilled for lack of qualified candidates. So, how is
Chavez going to fill the thousands of positions required to teach at
all of these new or improved institutions if he can not even have his
pet project, the Bolivarian University, function properly?
In
fact, a friend of mine has been involved with one of the projects
mentioned above. She is in charge of “building” a university for 1,200
students. Finding the land, designing the buildings and hiring the
contractors. She has asked what careers there will be, how many, how
many students per classroom, how many professors and what type of
educational terms there will be. The only answer she has received is
that the classrooms should have no more than 50 students. Some project,
no?
fact, a friend of mine has been involved with one of the projects
mentioned above. She is in charge of “building” a university for 1,200
students. Finding the land, designing the buildings and hiring the
contractors. She has asked what careers there will be, how many, how
many students per classroom, how many professors and what type of
educational terms there will be. The only answer she has received is
that the classrooms should have no more than 50 students. Some project,
no?
Since he was fantasizing, Chavez repeated
that Venezuela will become a nuclear country, because he has a nuclear
commission, but much like the Mision Alma Mater, you have to wonder how
any nuclear project can be carried out with nuclear engineers and
scientists. We have heard many times about that commission but we have
yet to hear who is in it. Maybe in mathematical terms, it is simply an
empty set.
that Venezuela will become a nuclear country, because he has a nuclear
commission, but much like the Mision Alma Mater, you have to wonder how
any nuclear project can be carried out with nuclear engineers and
scientists. We have heard many times about that commission but we have
yet to hear who is in it. Maybe in mathematical terms, it is simply an
empty set.
\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>And at the end Chavez became the offensive individual that he has proven to be over and over during the lat eight years, when in his infinite ignorance and inferiority complex he criticized Venezuela’s premier research and development Institute IVIC. He called the research being carried out there as “not adjusted to reality”, ignoring its long history of excellence and accomplishment.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>But does Chavez want reality? IVIC spawned during its years, INTEVEP, Venezuela’s oil research institute which Chavez cynically and unmercifully destroyed in very realistic fashion in 2003. It also spawned the Engineering Institute (nothing unrealistic about that name, no?), but more importantly, it set the standards of excellence for academia and research in Venezuela, which propagated throughout Venezuela’s academic system. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>At one time, IVIC was the premier research institution in Venezuela and it has generated thousands of papers, which are immortal contributions to knowledge.\u003cspan\> \u003c/span\>It has also graduated hundreds of Masters and Ph.D.’s in basic sciences. And that is why they are called basic; they are not called “realistic”, because there is no such concept. Scientists work on areas of their interest and their research takes them to wherever it may go and many times it goes towards unimaginable areas that it’s original creators could not envision. That is what IVIC is suppose to do and did for decades until politics began getting in the way of excellence and Chavez’ ignorance simply shows that he thinks he understands what he is doing, but can’t even tell which way he has to switch his clock so that the sun rises earlier. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>It is a measure of how primitive and backwards Venezuela’s Government has become, that Chavez dares to make this comment, suggesting that IVIC will also not survive the autocrat’s destructive powers as he continues to live in his fantasy and la-la land. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>And it will be the country’s sad and irreparable loss…”,1]
);
//–>
And
at the end, Chavez became the offensive individual that he has proven to
be over and over during the lat eight years, when in his infinite
ignorance and inferiority complex he criticized Venezuela’s premier
research and development Institute IVIC. He called the research being
carried out there as “not adjusted to reality”, ignoring its long
history of excellence and accomplishment.
at the end, Chavez became the offensive individual that he has proven to
be over and over during the lat eight years, when in his infinite
ignorance and inferiority complex he criticized Venezuela’s premier
research and development Institute IVIC. He called the research being
carried out there as “not adjusted to reality”, ignoring its long
history of excellence and accomplishment.
But
does Chavez want reality? IVIC spawned during its years, INTEVEP,
Venezuela’s oil research institute which Chavez cynically and
unmercifully destroyed in very realistic fashion in 2003. It also
spawned the Engineering Institute (nothing unrealistic about that name,
no?), but more importantly, it set the standards of excellence for
academia and research in Venezuela, which propagated throughout
Venezuela’s academic system.
does Chavez want reality? IVIC spawned during its years, INTEVEP,
Venezuela’s oil research institute which Chavez cynically and
unmercifully destroyed in very realistic fashion in 2003. It also
spawned the Engineering Institute (nothing unrealistic about that name,
no?), but more importantly, it set the standards of excellence for
academia and research in Venezuela, which propagated throughout
Venezuela’s academic system.
At one time, IVIC
was the premier research institution in Venezuela and it has generated
thousands of papers, which are immortal contributions to knowledge. It
has also graduated hundreds of Masters and Ph.D.’s in basic sciences.
And that is why they are called basic; they are not called “realistic”,
because there is no such concept. Scientists work on areas of their
interest and their research takes them to wherever it may go and many
times it goes towards unimaginable areas that it’s original creators
could not envision. That is what IVIC is suppose to do and did for
decades until politics began getting in the way of excellence and
Chavez’ ignorance simply shows that he thinks he understands what he is
doing, but can’t even tell which way he has to switch his clock so that
the sun rises earlier.
was the premier research institution in Venezuela and it has generated
thousands of papers, which are immortal contributions to knowledge. It
has also graduated hundreds of Masters and Ph.D.’s in basic sciences.
And that is why they are called basic; they are not called “realistic”,
because there is no such concept. Scientists work on areas of their
interest and their research takes them to wherever it may go and many
times it goes towards unimaginable areas that it’s original creators
could not envision. That is what IVIC is suppose to do and did for
decades until politics began getting in the way of excellence and
Chavez’ ignorance simply shows that he thinks he understands what he is
doing, but can’t even tell which way he has to switch his clock so that
the sun rises earlier.
It is a measure of how
primitive and backwards Venezuela’s Government has become, that Chavez
dares to make this comment, suggesting that IVIC will also not survive
the autocrat’s destructive powers as he continues to live in his
fantasy and la-la land.
primitive and backwards Venezuela’s Government has become, that Chavez
dares to make this comment, suggesting that IVIC will also not survive
the autocrat’s destructive powers as he continues to live in his
fantasy and la-la land.
And it will be the country’s sad and irreparable loss…\u003c/div\>”,0]
);
D([“ce”]);
);
D([“ce”]);
//–>
September 25, 2007
Last week, OPEC quietly decided to formalize what everyone but a few fanatics know and as part of its 500,000 barrel a day increase in production, it actually decreased
Venezuela’s OPEC quota from 3.223 million barrels of oil a day to 2.470
million barrels of oil a day. There was no announcement related to
decision, it was simply slipped into the update of the quota tables ( you can see it here,
go to the Nov 07 column in page 2). Clearly this was a high level
decision at OPEC, which has been reporting similar levels of production
for the country in its monthly oil report and as a serious organization wanted to have consistent numbers..
The
decision confirms what analysts, OPEC and the IEA have been saying for
the last two years, while the irresponsible Venezuelan administration,
including Minister of Energy and Oil Rafael Ramirez and President Hugo
Chavez have been telling the country. This simply show the utter
contempt these people have towards the citizens of the country and how
far they are capable of extending their lies and deceit in the name of
their fraudulent political project.
decision confirms what analysts, OPEC and the IEA have been saying for
the last two years, while the irresponsible Venezuelan administration,
including Minister of Energy and Oil Rafael Ramirez and President Hugo
Chavez have been telling the country. This simply show the utter
contempt these people have towards the citizens of the country and how
far they are capable of extending their lies and deceit in the name of
their fraudulent political project.
The cynical Venezuelan Oil Minister immediately took issue
with OPEC’s decision saying from Houston that “there was confusion and
manipulation in this decision…because Venezuela’s quota is set at
11.5%” and requires a resolution by OPEC Ministers to be changed and
this has not happened. First time I hear that Venezuela’s quota is a
percentage and not a number of barrels per day. its Venezuelan production figures, even denying the claims that Venezuela has tried to resolve the situation. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>The decision leaves Chavez the Emperor quite naked, as it can’t blame some obscure international plot to depose him for a decision that simply formalizes what is the reality: The country’s production has tumbled since 2003 and no evidence exists that the country is producing the levels claimed by the Venezuelan Government. Moreover, Government officials have been lying through their teeth about the true situation, together with their paid international cheerleaders.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>As I reported recently, PDVSA’s most recent numbers presented the data in a different manner and showed some new inconsistencies with earlier data. Clearly, the most bothersome aspect of all this is that transparency has been lost in reporting the country’s numbers. This is the reason why, despite oil prices near all time highs, Venezuela’s debt is 25-30% below the highs attained in March of this year. This makes Venezuela less attractive to foreign investors which will require higher yields to invest in the country\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003c/div\>”,0]
);
D([“ce”]);
with OPEC’s decision saying from Houston that “there was confusion and
manipulation in this decision…because Venezuela’s quota is set at
11.5%” and requires a resolution by OPEC Ministers to be changed and
this has not happened. First time I hear that Venezuela’s quota is a
percentage and not a number of barrels per day. its Venezuelan production figures, even denying the claims that Venezuela has tried to resolve the situation. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>The decision leaves Chavez the Emperor quite naked, as it can’t blame some obscure international plot to depose him for a decision that simply formalizes what is the reality: The country’s production has tumbled since 2003 and no evidence exists that the country is producing the levels claimed by the Venezuelan Government. Moreover, Government officials have been lying through their teeth about the true situation, together with their paid international cheerleaders.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\>As I reported recently, PDVSA’s most recent numbers presented the data in a different manner and showed some new inconsistencies with earlier data. Clearly, the most bothersome aspect of all this is that transparency has been lost in reporting the country’s numbers. This is the reason why, despite oil prices near all time highs, Venezuela’s debt is 25-30% below the highs attained in March of this year. This makes Venezuela less attractive to foreign investors which will require higher yields to invest in the country\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv\> \u003c/div\>\u003c/div\>”,0]
);
D([“ce”]);
//–>IEA has long defended
its Venezuelan production figures, even denying the claims that Venezuela has tried to resolve the situation.The
decision leaves Chavez the Emperor quite naked, as it can’t blame some
obscure international plot to depose him for a decision that simply
formalizes what is the reality: The country’s production has tumbled
since 2003 and no evidence exists that the country is producing the
levels claimed by the Venezuelan Government. Moreover, Government
officials have been lying through their teeth about the true situation,
together with their paid international cheerleaders.
decision leaves Chavez the Emperor quite naked, as it can’t blame some
obscure international plot to depose him for a decision that simply
formalizes what is the reality: The country’s production has tumbled
since 2003 and no evidence exists that the country is producing the
levels claimed by the Venezuelan Government. Moreover, Government
officials have been lying through their teeth about the true situation,
together with their paid international cheerleaders.
As
I reported recently, PDVSA’s most recent numbers presented the data in
a different manner and showed some new inconsistencies with earlier
data. Clearly, the most bothersome aspect of all this is that
transparency has been lost in reporting the country’s numbers from PDVSA, to the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank. This is
the reason why, despite oil prices near all time highs, Venezuela’s
debt is 25-30% below the highs attained in March of this year. This
makes Venezuela less attractive to foreign investors which will require
higher yields to invest in the country.
I reported recently, PDVSA’s most recent numbers presented the data in
a different manner and showed some new inconsistencies with earlier
data. Clearly, the most bothersome aspect of all this is that
transparency has been lost in reporting the country’s numbers from PDVSA, to the Ministry of Finance to the Central Bank. This is
the reason why, despite oil prices near all time highs, Venezuela’s
debt is 25-30% below the highs attained in March of this year. This
makes Venezuela less attractive to foreign investors which will require
higher yields to invest in the country.
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC.
September 24, 2007
I am always amazed at both the ability of the
Chavez Government to lie, as well as its ability for hyperbole when
talking about economic projects. The first few years of Chavez’
presidency, you could tell he was frustrated with economic issues, he
did not know how to manage them, did not understand them and could not
control them, in contrast with social and political issues where he
could really understand what the people wanted and used it to his
advantage, blaming the previous forty years for all the problems.
Chavez Government to lie, as well as its ability for hyperbole when
talking about economic projects. The first few years of Chavez’
presidency, you could tell he was frustrated with economic issues, he
did not know how to manage them, did not understand them and could not
control them, in contrast with social and political issues where he
could really understand what the people wanted and used it to his
advantage, blaming the previous forty years for all the problems.
Since
then, Chavez has learned that you can lie, exaggerate and make up
numbers on just about any subject, but it is precisely in social issues
where he has to walk a very fine line, because the people are not dumb.
You can’t fool people into believing there is no crime or it has not
increased, no inflation and he has stopped it, no shortages or a boom
in housing. Thus, Chavez avoids these subjects. Chavez never says “we
have built so many housing units…”, he knows that if he exaggerates,
some people will feel that they were left out, so it is better to say
“We will build so many thousand units…”. In a year, nobody will check
anyway
then, Chavez has learned that you can lie, exaggerate and make up
numbers on just about any subject, but it is precisely in social issues
where he has to walk a very fine line, because the people are not dumb.
You can’t fool people into believing there is no crime or it has not
increased, no inflation and he has stopped it, no shortages or a boom
in housing. Thus, Chavez avoids these subjects. Chavez never says “we
have built so many housing units…”, he knows that if he exaggerates,
some people will feel that they were left out, so it is better to say
“We will build so many thousand units…”. In a year, nobody will check
anyway
Thus,
Chavez concentrates a lot of his time on economic projects which are
not easy to understand, even for himself, and for which there is little
accountability. This is in the end as effective as fighting Bush’
ghost, blaming the CIA for everything or calling the opposition
terrorists. The terms are ill defined and in contrast to the detail
into which he goes for historical facts, he usually barely stops to
explain, what exactly Bush’ ghost did, how the CIA accomplished
something or exactly what terrorist act the opposition committed in a
country with little terrorism. \u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>With time, Chavez has gained confidence on economic matters. He knows there is little accountability on them and he can just talk and talk and simply BS the population. Thus, Chavez can promise a gas pipeline through the South and if it is not built it is because the CIA or Bush’s ghost want to divide Latin America. Or he can promise to pay for half of 14 refineries and not one gets built, except for the one in Cuba, which Venezuela is paying for completely. Just yesterday Chavez was blaming the difficulties in working with Petrobras on the underlings,s saying he had to bypass them by dealing with Lula directly. The truth is that the underlings are professionals who have found PDVSA an unreliable partner and they have decided to go at it alone or the refinery may never get built. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>The worst art, is that Chavez gets away with it. He can say the most outrageous things and few reporters, pro- or against Chavez even question what he says or ask whatever happened to promises he has made in the past.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>But yesterday, this reached \u003ca href\u003d\”http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8RRFPR00.htm\” target\u003d\”_blank\” onclick\u003d\”return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\”\>\u003cfont color\u003d\”#000099\”\>absurd proportions\u003c/font\>\u003c/a\> when Chavez during his Sunday marathonic eight hour variety show Alo Presidente, kept a very straight face \u003ca href\u003d\”http://www.eluniversal.com/2007/09/23/eco_ava_chavez:-revolucion-p_23A1056477.shtml\” target\u003d\”_blank\” onclick\u003d\”return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\”\>”,1]
);
Chavez concentrates a lot of his time on economic projects which are
not easy to understand, even for himself, and for which there is little
accountability. This is in the end as effective as fighting Bush’
ghost, blaming the CIA for everything or calling the opposition
terrorists. The terms are ill defined and in contrast to the detail
into which he goes for historical facts, he usually barely stops to
explain, what exactly Bush’ ghost did, how the CIA accomplished
something or exactly what terrorist act the opposition committed in a
country with little terrorism. \u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>With time, Chavez has gained confidence on economic matters. He knows there is little accountability on them and he can just talk and talk and simply BS the population. Thus, Chavez can promise a gas pipeline through the South and if it is not built it is because the CIA or Bush’s ghost want to divide Latin America. Or he can promise to pay for half of 14 refineries and not one gets built, except for the one in Cuba, which Venezuela is paying for completely. Just yesterday Chavez was blaming the difficulties in working with Petrobras on the underlings,s saying he had to bypass them by dealing with Lula directly. The truth is that the underlings are professionals who have found PDVSA an unreliable partner and they have decided to go at it alone or the refinery may never get built. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>The worst art, is that Chavez gets away with it. He can say the most outrageous things and few reporters, pro- or against Chavez even question what he says or ask whatever happened to promises he has made in the past.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>But yesterday, this reached \u003ca href\u003d\”http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8RRFPR00.htm\” target\u003d\”_blank\” onclick\u003d\”return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\”\>\u003cfont color\u003d\”#000099\”\>absurd proportions\u003c/font\>\u003c/a\> when Chavez during his Sunday marathonic eight hour variety show Alo Presidente, kept a very straight face \u003ca href\u003d\”http://www.eluniversal.com/2007/09/23/eco_ava_chavez:-revolucion-p_23A1056477.shtml\” target\u003d\”_blank\” onclick\u003d\”return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)\”\>”,1]
);
//–>
With
time, Chavez has gained confidence on economic matters. He knows there
is little accountability on them and he can just talk and talk and
simply BS the population. Thus, Chavez can promise a gas pipeline
through the South and if it is not built it is because the CIA or
Bush’s ghost want to divide Latin America. Or he can promise to pay for
half of 14 refineries and not one gets built, except for the one in
Cuba, which Venezuela is paying for completely. Just yesterday Chavez
was blaming the difficulties in working with Petrobras on the
underlings,s saying he had to bypass them by dealing with Lula
directly. The truth is that the underlings are professionals who have
found PDVSA an unreliable partner and they have decided to go at it
alone or the refinery may never get built.
time, Chavez has gained confidence on economic matters. He knows there
is little accountability on them and he can just talk and talk and
simply BS the population. Thus, Chavez can promise a gas pipeline
through the South and if it is not built it is because the CIA or
Bush’s ghost want to divide Latin America. Or he can promise to pay for
half of 14 refineries and not one gets built, except for the one in
Cuba, which Venezuela is paying for completely. Just yesterday Chavez
was blaming the difficulties in working with Petrobras on the
underlings,s saying he had to bypass them by dealing with Lula
directly. The truth is that the underlings are professionals who have
found PDVSA an unreliable partner and they have decided to go at it
alone or the refinery may never get built.
The
worst art, is that Chavez gets away with it. He can say the most
outrageous things and few reporters, pro- or against Chavez even
question what he says or ask whatever happened to promises he has made
in the past.
worst art, is that Chavez gets away with it. He can say the most
outrageous things and few reporters, pro- or against Chavez even
question what he says or ask whatever happened to promises he has made
in the past.
But yesterday, this reached absurd proportions when Chavez during his Sunday marathonic eight hour variety show Alo Presidente, kept a very straight face when he announced\u003c/font\>\u003c/a\> a petrochemical revolution, which in its first stage between now and 2013:\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>“…will generate 700,000 jobs, US$ 100 billion in revenues …and require US$ 20 billion in investment”\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>Now, I have yet to see any criticism besides today’s Veneconomy Editorial of this statement. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>But let’s analyze it:\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>First, the numbers are simply inconsistent among themselves:\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>—No US$ 20 billion investment is capable of generating US$ 100 billion in revenues unless you have some form of unique product and certainly not with a commodity like petrochemicals, even if they have gone up in price recently\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>—700,000 jobs is also an absurd number, none of the largest corporations in the world, with revenues many times larger than US$ 100 billion have so many employees. Juts think, Venezuela’s oil industry has 45,000 employees to generate less than US$ 100 billion in revenues.\u003c/div\>”,1]
);
);
//–>when he announced
a petrochemical revolution, which in its first stage between now and 2013:“…will generate 700,000 jobs, US$ 100 billion in revenues …and require US$ 20 billion in investment”
Now, I have yet to see any criticism besides today’s Veneconomy Editorial of this statement.
But let’s analyze it:
First, the numbers are simply inconsistent among themselves:
—No
US$ 20 billion investment is capable of generating US$ 100 billion in
revenues unless you have some form of unique product and certainly not
with a commodity like petrochemicals, even if they have gone up in
price recently
US$ 20 billion investment is capable of generating US$ 100 billion in
revenues unless you have some form of unique product and certainly not
with a commodity like petrochemicals, even if they have gone up in
price recently
—700,000
jobs is also an absurd number, none of the largest corporations in the
world, with revenues many times larger than US$ 100 billion have so
many employees. Juts think, Venezuela’s oil industry has 45,000
employees to generate less than US$ 100 billion in revenues.
jobs is also an absurd number, none of the largest corporations in the
world, with revenues many times larger than US$ 100 billion have so
many employees. Juts think, Venezuela’s oil industry has 45,000
employees to generate less than US$ 100 billion in revenues.
\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>—Pequiven, Venezuela’s petrochemical company had revenues in 2004 of barely US$ 3 billion under its current management, know how and expertise, how will it grow to UD$ 100 billion, a factor of 33 i growth. Where will the engineers, competitive advantages and the like come from?\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>—As an example, Dow Chemical, one of the largest petrochemical companies in the world, had sales in 2006 of about US$ 49 billion, it had 43 thousand employees and trades at a value of US$ 50 billion. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>—Of course, the common question has become: Where is the money going to come from? The Government has yet to pay for the Orinoco Oil belt companies it nationalized. PDVSA, our main source of income is not investing what it needs to keep up production and does not have the people required. So, where is the money going to come from? To say nothing of the raw materials required to produce the various chemicals. Natural Gas is limited, oil production is going down. What gives?\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>The answer is that this announcement will be much like the dozens of others that Chavez mentions every Sunday. There will be no follow up, no project development and maybe, if we are optimistic, in 2013 Pequiven may have increased production of petrochemicals by 20-30% to US$ 4 billion.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>”,1]
);
//–>
—Pequiven,
Venezuela’s petrochemical company had revenues in 2004 of barely US$ 3
billion under its current management, know how and expertise, how will
it grow to UD$ 100 billion, a factor of 33 i growth. Where will the
engineers, competitive advantages and the like come from?
Venezuela’s petrochemical company had revenues in 2004 of barely US$ 3
billion under its current management, know how and expertise, how will
it grow to UD$ 100 billion, a factor of 33 i growth. Where will the
engineers, competitive advantages and the like come from?
—As
an example, Dow Chemical, one of the largest petrochemical companies in
the world, had sales in 2006 of about US$ 49 billion, it had 43
thousand employees and trades at a value of US$ 50 billion.
an example, Dow Chemical, one of the largest petrochemical companies in
the world, had sales in 2006 of about US$ 49 billion, it had 43
thousand employees and trades at a value of US$ 50 billion.
—Of
course, the common question has become: Where is the money going to
come from? The Government has yet to pay for the Orinoco Oil belt
companies it nationalized. PDVSA, our main source of income is not
investing what it needs to keep up production and does not have the
people required. So, where is the money going to come from? To say
nothing of the raw materials required to produce the various chemicals.
Natural Gas is limited, oil production is going down. What gives?
course, the common question has become: Where is the money going to
come from? The Government has yet to pay for the Orinoco Oil belt
companies it nationalized. PDVSA, our main source of income is not
investing what it needs to keep up production and does not have the
people required. So, where is the money going to come from? To say
nothing of the raw materials required to produce the various chemicals.
Natural Gas is limited, oil production is going down. What gives?
The
answer is that this announcement will be much like the dozens of others
that Chavez mentions every Sunday. There will be no follow up, no
project development and maybe, if we are optimistic, in 2013 Pequiven
may have increased production of petrochemicals by 20-30% to US$ 4
billion.
answer is that this announcement will be much like the dozens of others
that Chavez mentions every Sunday. There will be no follow up, no
project development and maybe, if we are optimistic, in 2013 Pequiven
may have increased production of petrochemicals by 20-30% to US$ 4
billion.
\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>At which time Chavez will announce in his Sunday variety show Alo Presidente that the second stage of the petrochemical revolution is about to begin and that it will generate two million jobs, US$ 200 billion in revenues and require inly US$ 20 billion in investment.\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;min-height:14px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>And all of the members of the then Cabinet, the same faces just rotated in their positions within the Cabinet, will nod approvingly, smile and applaud the bright future Venezuela has in the hands of Hugo Chavez. \u003c/div\>\u003cdiv style\u003d\”margin-top:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px\”\>\u003cbr\>\u003c/div\>\u003c/div\>”,0]
);
D([“ce”]);
);
D([“ce”]);
//–>
At
which time Chavez will announce in his Sunday variety show Alo
Presidente that the second stage of the petrochemical revolution is
about to begin and that it will generate two million jobs, US$ 200
billion in revenues and require inly US$ 20 billion in investment.
which time Chavez will announce in his Sunday variety show Alo
Presidente that the second stage of the petrochemical revolution is
about to begin and that it will generate two million jobs, US$ 200
billion in revenues and require inly US$ 20 billion in investment.
And
all of the members of the then Cabinet, the same faces just rotated in
their positions within the Cabinet, will nod approvingly, smile and
applaud the bright future Venezuela has in the hands of Hugo Chavez.
all of the members of the then Cabinet, the same faces just rotated in
their positions within the Cabinet, will nod approvingly, smile and
applaud the bright future Venezuela has in the hands of Hugo Chavez.
Revisiting the swap rate
September 23, 2007
In early August I showed the graph above predicting the swap exchange rate or parallel rate would have to move up to catch up with the ¨ďmplicit¨rate. Well, it happened much faster than I thought even though increased reserves drove the implicit rate down a little bit.
Using Central Bank data, I did a study of what is the average seasonal increase in M2 from October to December and found 22% in the last 4 years. This means that the implicit rate will jump near Bs. 5600 per dollar in reserves. Add the Constitutional reform and the fears of what the Government intends to do with the ¨Bolivar Fuerte¨and Bs. 6,000 by the end of the year is quite likely.
September 23, 2007
ˇAhora si pertenezco! por Oligarco Burguesito
Confieso
que soy un oligarca. Mientras estoy aquí escribiendo en la computadora
miro a través de la ventana y veo otro atraco frente a mi edificio.
Pero no me importa mucho. Ya soy feliz. Me uní a la revolución. Me he
convertido en un Socialista del Siglo XXI. Me he unido a la economía
informal. żQuien hubiera pensado que yo me convertiría? Todavía detesto
a Chávez y su militarismo. Su deseos de adquirir poder en nombre del
pueblo. El hecho de que si viene de su derecha, el lo llama un golpe,
pero si viene de su izquierda lo considera una nueva era para la
democracia. El hecho de que a pesar de docenas de intentos fantasmas
contra su vida, el esta aún vivo. El hecho de que hace trampa en las
elecciones. El abuso del poder que detenta. Su desprecio a los derechos
humanos. Lo detesto, pero he aprendido a amar la robolución como miles
de miles de venezolanos. No uso franela roja, pero mentalmente soy ya
parte de eso. He aprendido a amar la revolución, sus aspectos
positivos. La revolución me trata ahora muy bien de verdad.
Pero
me Adelanto en mi historia. Déjenme empezar por el principio.Todo
empezó en Febrero cuando estaba sentado aquí mismo viendo otro atraco a
través de mi ventana. Se acercaban las vacaciones de Carnaval y estaba
pensando irme a la Isla de Margarita. Llame a mi pana José, al agente
de viajes, preguntándole sobre un lugar barato en Margarita, pasaje,
alquiler de carro. Cuanto costaría todo porcuatro días?-Le pregunte a
José.
żEstas loco Oli? żMargarita? żPara que carrizo querrías ir
a una porquería de hotel allá, cuando puedes volar a Aruba, quedarte
en un hotel lujoso donde tienes buen servicio, agua, electricidad y
menos gente y todo a un precio mas barato? Y además, de regreso puedes
traer unos kilitos de azúcar-dijo José.
Oyendo todo esto pensé
que José se había fumado una lumpia, como dijo Aristóbulo de Chávez,
antes de que lo nombrara Ministro de Educación. De que me estara hablando
Es
fácil Oli, me dijo José. El pasaje en avión es mas caro, pero lo pagas
a la tasa de cambio oficial. Pero además, vas a Aruba y le pides a
CADIVI tu cupo de dólares de viajero, te tocan $5,400 a la tasa
oficial. Con eso te puedes quedar en un hotel mucho mejor que los que
hay en Margarita por el mismo precio, comer comida de mejorcalidad pero
mas barata y la plata que no te gastes, puedes ir al casino, compras
las fichas, apuestas un par de veces al rojo en la ruleta, cambias tus
fichas por efectivo y recibiste tu cupo de CADIVI a la tasa oficial.
Vendes esos dólares en el mercado de permutes y el viaje te sale
prácticamente gratis.
ˇCaray! le dije a José, Yo no tenia ni la
menor idea de todo esto. żY que hay que hacer, donde empiezo? Bueno-
dijo José-simplemente ven a mi oficina mańana con tu pasaporte,
regístrate en la pagina de CADIVI y así iniciamos todo el proceso.
Pasaporte? No tengo pasaporte, que tan rápido puedo sacar uno? – le
pregunte a José
Bueno, es bastante difícil y complicado, pero
dame 200,000 bolos y yo tengo un pana que te lo saca en una semana. A
menos que tu hayas firmado en el revocatorio contra Chávez. żTu
Firmaste?
Claro que si José, tu sabes que me desagrada Chávez, le conteste.
Bueno
Oli, en ese caso, me tienes que dar bs. 500,000, los casos de la lista
Tascon son mas difíciles de resolver, por lo tanto sala algo mas caro.
En
aquel momento pensé: ˇGracias a Dios que existe el libre Mercado!-
acuérdense que yo todavía era un oligarca. Pero claramente el libre
Mercado en la robolucion había salvado mis vacaciones. En menos de una
semana tenia mi pasaporte, mis $400 en efectivo de CADIVI y mi pasaje
de ida y vuelta y me fui a Aruba. Mi transformación hacia un hombre
socialista del Siglo XXI había comenzado.
Aruba fue
espectacular, conocí a una gringa, rumbeamos durante cuatro días y al
final me gaste como $1,800. Regrese a Caracas, vendí el resto, unos
$4,100 a Bs. 4,200, y con esos 17 millones de Bolivares pagué los 3.9
millones del viaje, los 8.8 millones de los demás dólares y me
embolsille 4.5 millones de Bolívares de “ganancia” por mis vacaciones.
Ese
monto es tanto como lo que yo gano en un mes trabajando duro en mi
empleo en una empresa de acero en Caracas, donde tengo que llegar
temprano, trabajar duro, quedarme hasta tarde y preocuparme por las
cosas. Ahí fue donde me di cuenta que tenia que haber algo errado en el
sistema capitalista y después de todo, quizás Chávez tenia razón con su
Socialismo el siglo XXI.
Al día siguiente me levante temprano y
aunque normalmente no leo el periódico, vi los titulares sobre el Bono
del Sur, que iba a salir la semana que viene. Me pregunte para que
servia eso y como no se nada de finanzas, llame a mi otro amigo,
Miguel, que tiene un blog y a veces escribe sobre esos temas, pensando
que a lo mejor el me lo podría explicar bien.
Es muy fácil-dijo Miguel: El Gobierno te vende un bono que tiene distintas partes tanto en Bs. como en $. Pagas por la parte en
dólares
a la tasa de cambio oficial, te volteas, vendes las partes, recibes
unos Bolívares y vendes los dólares en el mercado de permuta. Por cada
dólar que te dan, te ganas como Bs. 800. Incluso, algunas casas de
Bolsa te prestan, para que te puedas financiar parte de la orden y
puedes obtener mas Bolívares de los que podrías con los que tu tienes.
Le dije a Miguel que esto no tenia ningún sentido y el empezó un largo
discurso sobre liquidez, absorción y términos como ese, que apenas
entendí. Pero Miguel parece saber de lo que está hablando y fui a la
casa de bolsa frente a donde trabajo, puse una orden por $20,000 y pedí
prestado la mitad de lo que me asignaran.
Me asignaron $8,000,
la mitad en $, los vendí y en un santiamén le había agregado unos 3.2
millones de Bs. mas al pote de Aruba, y en un instante.
Llame a
Miguel para darle las gracias por sus consejos y cuando ya iba a
colgar, me dijo: “Bueno, me imagino que ya tu pediste también tu
dólares de CADIVI de Internet? żAh? Le dije, no, no los he pedido. żY
cuanto es eso? Bueno, Miguel me dijo, te dan $3,000 a la tasa de cambio
oficial.
En menos de dos días, había usado mi cupo para comprar
una Macintosh, una impresora, un iPod de 80Gb y un sistema de cornetas
Bose para el iPod. Averigüe para comprarme un iPhone, pero supe que no
funcionaria aquí, por lo que use mis últimos $500 de mi cupo de
Internet para comprar un disco duro externo, un sistema WiFi y una
cámara digital.ˇCaray! Era finales de Marzo y mi nivel de vida había
mejorado significativamente y mis dudas sobre la robolucion afloraron con
intensidad. żMe habría equivocado con Chávez? Esto era de verdad una
vida diferente. Sin necesidad de competir, sin trabajar duro y con
recompensas espectaculares. żQue mas podía pedir un oligarca como yo? O
seria que me estaba convirtiendo en un socialista? Gran parte de mi
pote había sido gastado ya, pero mi casa ya era parte de la era
espacial.
Poco después que todo los aparaticos Apple llegaran,
el Gobierno anuncio el bono de PDVSA. Hay que llamar a Miguel de nuevo.
Me dice que es un robo la cosa. Me meto de lleno, pido $100,000 y mi
banco me lo financia, siempre y cuando mantenga el préstamo por un mes
mínimo. Pensar en eso me hace temblar de miedo, pero me meto de todas
maneras, financiado 90% por mi banco. Increíblemente me asignan $45,000
a un precio promedio de Bs. 2,900 pero tengo que esperar un mes para
venderlos y ganarme la no despreciable suma de Bs. 600 por cada dólar.
Pero soy tan sortario que después del mes, el paralelo ha
subido a
Bs. 4,000. Me gano Bs. 1,100 por dólar asignado y ahora tengo nada mas
y nada menos que Bs. 49 millones en mi bolsillo. Eso es mas de lo que
yo gano en una ańo en mi trabajo!
Es en se instante que me doy
cuenta lo poco que he entendido la revolución hasta ahora. Por supuesto
que es atractiva. Todo te sale
gratis y no tienes que trabajar.
Podría ganar aun mas si trabajara duro, desarrollaría contactos en el
Gobierno para obtenercontratos.
żPero para que? En un mes he ganado mas que en una ańo matándome en mi trabajo.
Renuncio
entonces a mi trabajo y me uno a la economía informal. Me levanto tarde
todos los días. żQue es lo que hago? Muy facil. Todos los días salgo a
buscar a alguien que no tenga para comprar su cupo de $ de compras por
Internet que les da el Gobierno. Les consigo una tarjeta de debito y a
través de un amigo en Miami les “gasto” todo su cupo. Cada cupo me
cuesta 6.45 millones de Bolívares, vendo los dólares en el mercado de
permuta a Bs. 4,900. La diferencia es Bs. 8.25 millones, les pago a
los clientes Bs. 1.5 millones y me gano yo por el servicio 6.75
millones de Bs. por cliente. Por eso, solo trabajo un cliente al día,
me he unido al Socialismo del siglo XXI. Esfuerzo mínimo con retorno
máximo. Veinte clientes al mes me netean tres veces mas que lo que me
ganaba en una ańo en mi Viejo empleo; No hay beneficios, ni seguro
medico, pero caramba, no hago casi anda y gano muchísimo mas. Tengo
mucho tiempo para rumbear. Prácticamente vivo em el Tinajero de Los
Helechos después de las cuatro de la tarde, donde mis compańeros
socialistas me invitan a tomar Güisqui de
18 anos.
Todavía no
uso la franela roja. Pero un amigo me dijo que podía ir a una reunión
del PSUV con una y podría conseguir unas veinte personas y convertirlas
en clientes.ˇImagínense! ˇPodría trabajar un solo día al mes si hago
eso!
Ahora si pertenezco. He visto la luz. Amo la robolucion. Me
trata bien aunque no este totalmente de acuerdo con ella. Apenas
trabajo ahora. Espero con ansiedad el ańo 2008 para poder ir a Cancún
con mi cupo de viajero, He saltado al Socialismo del Sigo XX1.
Y
a lo mejor hasta me cambio el nombre. Los Chavistas tienen problema con
el, aunque les digo que porque simplemente no me llaman Oli
ˇAhora si pertenezco!
I belong now by Oligarco Burguesito
September 22, 2007I belong now by Oligarco Burguesito
I confess I am an oligarch. As I sit here typing, I look through the window and see another mugging right outside my building. But I don’t care. I am happy now. I have now joined the robolution. I have become a XXIst. Century Socialist. I have joined the informal economy. Who would have thought that I would be converted? I still detest Chavez and his militarism. His grab for power in the name of the “people”. The fact that if it comes from his right, it’s called a coup, but if it comes from his left it’s called a new dawn for democracy. The fact that despite the dozens of phantom attempts on his life, he is still alive. His cheating in elections. His abuse of power. His disregard for human rights. I still despise him, but I have learned to love the revolution like thousands of Venezuelans. I am indeed a XXIst. Century Socialist. I don’t wear a red shirt, but mentally I belong now. I have learned to love the robolution, it’s positive aspects. It does indeed treat me well now.
But I am getting ahead of myself. Let me start at the beginning. It all began last February as I sat right here at this same window watching another mugging. Carnival vacation was coming up and I was thinking of going to Margarita Island. I called my buddy Jose, the travel agent, asking about some cheap place in Margarita, airfare, car rental. How much would it cost for four days? -I asked Jose.
Are you nuts Oli? Margarita? Why would you ever want to go to a crummy place over there, when you can fly to Aruba, stay at a fancy Hotel and have good service, running water, electricity and smaller crowds at a cheaper price? You can even bring back some sugar from the trip! He said.
By now I thought Jose had smoked an egg roll, like Aristobulo accused Chavez a few years ago before Chavez named him Minister. What are you talking about?
It’s easy Oli, said Jose. The airfare is more expensive, but you pay at the official rate of exchange. On top of that, you go to Aruba and ask CADIVI for your travel dollars, you get $5,900 total at the official rate. With that you can stay at a better hotel than in Margarita for the same price, eat food of better quality, but cheaper and the money you don’t spend, you can go to the Casino, buy chips, bet on red for a couple of spins, cash in and you have now received your full CADIVI allotment at the official rate of exchange. You sell those dollars in the swap market and the trip ends up being almost free.
Wow! I told Jose, I didn’t know any of this. How do I get started? Well, just come tomorrow to my office with your passport, register at CADIVI and we will get the ball rolling.
Passport? I don’t have a passport, how fast can I get one? – I asked Jose.
Well, you know it is very complicated, but just give me Bs. 200,000 and I have a buddy that will get it for you in a week, unless of course you signed against Chavez in the referendum. Did you?
Of course I did Jose; you know how much I dislike Chavez!
Well, Oli, in that case, you will have to give me Bs. 500,000, Tascon cases are much tougher and more expensive.
At the time I thought-thanks God for free enterprise!- remember I was still an oligarch then. But clearly free enterprise in the robolution had saved my trip. Within a week, I had my passport; my $400 in cash from CADIVI and my tickets and off I went to Aruba. My transformation into a XXIst. Century Socialist man had begun.
Aruba was grand, I met a gringa there, we partied for four days and in the end I spent about $1,800. I came back to Caracas, sold the remainder $4,100 at Bs. 4,200, and with those 17.2 million Bs. I paid the 3.87 million of the trip, the 8,8 million for the remainder dollars and pocketed Bs. 4.5 million “profit” from my vacation.
That was as much as I made in a month working hard at my job at a local steel company, where I have to show up early, work hard, stay late, worry about things. I began to see that something was seriously wrong with the capitalist system and maybe Chavez was right about this XXIst. Century Socialism after all.
The next day, I woke up early and even though I don’t usually read the paper, I saw a headline about a Bono del Sur coming out soon. I wondered what that was about, but since I know nothing about finance, I called my other friend Miguel, he has a blog and writes often about such topics, and maybe he can explain it to me.
It’s simple, Miguel said: The Government sells you a bond which has different parts in Bs. And $. You pay for the dollar part at the official rate of exchange, you turned around sell the parts, get back some Bolivars, get back some dollars and you sell the dollars in the parallel swap market, for each dollar you get you make about Bs. 800. Some brokers lend you money, so that you can finance part of the order and get more than the Bolivars you have. I said this did not make any sense and Miguel went into a tirade about liquidity, absorption and such terms, which I barely understood, but he seems to know what he is talking about, so I went to the broker across the street from my office and placed an order for $20,000, borrowing half of what I would get.
I was assigned $8,000, half of it was in $, sold them and lo and behold I had added Bs. 3.2 million to my Aruba kitty in a flash.
I called Miguel to thank him and when I was about to hang up, he said: “Well, have you asked for your Internet CADIVI dollars?” Huh? I said, no I have not, how much is that? Well, Miguel told me, you get $3,000 at the official rate of exchange.
Within two days, I had used this quota to buy a new Mac, a printer, an 80GB IPod and a Bose speaker system for my iPod. I also looked into buying an iPhone but learned it does not work here, so I used the last $500 of my Internet quota to buy an external hard drive, a WiFi system and a digital camera. Wow! It was late March and my standard of living had improved significantly and my doubts about the robolution began to surface. Had I misjudged Chavez? This was really a different life. No competition, no hard work and big payoffs, what else could a young oligarch ask for? Or was I turning into a socialist? A lot of my kitty had been spent, but my home was now part of the space age.
Soon after all of the Apple stuff arrived, the Government announced the PDVSA bond. Time to call Miguel again. He says is a steal, I jump in, asking for 100,000 dollars, 90% of it financed by my bank as long as I keep it for month. I tremble at the thought ,but go ahead anyway. Remarkably, I am assigned 45,000 dollars at an average price of Bs. 2,900 but have to wait a month to sell them at Bs. 3,500 and make a tidy Bs. 600 profit per dollar. But I am so lucky that after a month the parallel market is up to Bs. 4,000, I make Bs. 1,100 per dollar assigned and now I have a whopping 49 million Bs. in my pocket. That is more that I make in one year!
It is at that point that I realize how little I have understood the revolution up to now. Of course it’s appealing. You get everything for free, you don’t have to work. I could make more money if I worked hard; develop contacts to get contracts with Government outfits and the like. But why bother? In one month I have made more money that in one year busting my butt working at my job.
So, I quit my job and have joined the ranks of the informal economy. I wake up late everyday. What do I do? Easy. Everyday I look for someone I know without the means to buy the Internet quota that the Government gives them. I help them get a debit card and through a friend in Miami I “spend” their whole quota. Each quota costs me 6.45 million Bs., I sell the dollars in the swap market at Bs. 4,900. The difference is Bs. 8.25 million, I pay my clients 1.5 million for their quota, and so I net Bs. 6.75 million per client. That is why I only work one client each day, I have joined the ranks of the XXIst. Century S
ocialist. Minimum effort, maximum return. Twenty clients a month net me three times what I used to make at my old job. There are no benefits now, no health care. But hey, I do little and make so much more. Lots of time for partying! I practically live at Tinajero de Los Helechos after 4 PM, where my fellow socialists invite me to drink 18 year old Scotch.
I still don’t wear a red shirt. But a friend told me I could go to a PSUV meeting wearing one and maybe I could sign up twenty people as clients in one day. Just think! I would only have to work one day a month that way!
I belong now. I have seen the light. I love the robolution. It treats me well, even if I disagree with it. I barely work. I can’t wait for the new year, so I can go to Cancun with next year’s quota. I have jumped into XXIst Century Socialism!
And I may even change my name, Chavistas have a hard time with it, even if I tell them to call me Oli.
I do belong now!
In short…news from the robolution
September 20, 2007Not much time to post, but a few short tidbits about revolutionary happenings of revelance and interest:
—-As I predicted in the comments section of the time zone post, the Government has postponed its implementation as the improvisation was simply too much. The announcement will be made by Chavez himself, who has already announced it twice, but will give it the old college try again sometime soon. Nothing had been done about the legal and international aspects of things, despite claims that nothing needed to be done as this was a sovereign decision. I guess it has now been confirmed that the clowns themselves are running this circus and you will have to wait to “obtain the positive effects in your metabolism from the organic, functional, intellectaul, systemic and productive point of views”. Please don’t laugh, this is very serious revolutionary stuff.
—-And speaking of sovereignty and independence, now that the US Federal Reserve has acted, the Ministry of Finance has announced the “new” and “improved” Bono del Sur III. When the older version, which was canceled was announced I criticized it and said it was not worth it, the relaunched version removes some of the drawbacks of the earlier one, whether it is worth buying it or not will have to await until Monday when the price is set. For now, I can tell you the issue size was reduced to US$ 1.2 billion, half of it will be in an Argentinean Boden 15 bond and the other half of a so called TICC due in 2015. Thus, you will get half of what you are assigned in US$, compared to one third in the old version. Stay tuned!
—-And the same man that said the CIA was spying on us via the Direct TV set top boxes, Minister of the Interior Carreño, today suggests another innovative theory: Violence in Venezuela’s jails is due to a destabilization plan by those that oppose the Government. This plan must have been in effect since Chavez took over. I guess they have jailed too many of them…What’s next? The tripling of the number of homicides since Chavez took over is the result of random killings by the opposition? Minister Carreño should realize he has been incompetent in his position and resign, as simple as that!
—-And in another revolutionary triumph, the Minister of Feeding announced in a press conference today the arrival of 14,000 Tons of sugar and 1,650 Tons of black beans to alleviate shortages. Of course, these products were imported at the official rate of exchange and will be sold at controlled prices, insuring that no farmer in Venezuela can compete in prices. This will lead to more shortages in the medium turn, but try to explain this complex issue to people who still are not clear whether you move your clock backwards or forwrads in order to get more daylight. The Minister, dressed in military garb to show his authority and power, also clarified that the milk shortage is a worldwide problem and not restricted to Venezuela. (Would love to hear from readers abrad who are experiencing milk shoratges in their own countries)
—-And in another act of sovereignty, the Mayor of Bolivian city La Guardia, returned the check (for US$ 32,784) given to him by the Venezuelan Government because…it was less than what he was promised. Jeez, we all have our pride and our price!!! And it is above US$ 32,784 in La Guardia, Bolivia.
More evidence and proof of rights violations by PDVSA authorities
September 19, 2007
While it is only Chavista fanatics and fools that still have the audacity to deny the wholesale violation of people’s rights by the Chavez administration in the face of overwhelming evidence including Chavez saying on his variety show Alo President that the Tascon/Chavez fascist list should be buried, more and more compelling evidence surfaces as days go by. Of course, in the absence of the rule of law and independent powers, this evidence is useless, but hopefully, one day the day of reckoning will come and Chavez, Tascon, Ramirez and cohorts will have to face a Judge and account for this massive violations of human rights and the Venezuelan Constitution while in power.
The latest compelling evidence was published by Tal Cual yesterday in a new (and extremely dumb!) letter signed by the Board of PDVSA, entitled “General Policies for hiring personnel or contracting suppliers”. In it the Board “prohibits the use of any selection criteria …which violates the principle of equality participation and transparency privileged in Venezuelan law to disqualify people or companies…”
This is followed by a sentence saying that the letter replaces any previous ones (aja!) and that only the “Verification Criteria” can be used. This “criteria” on the right are clearly in violations of people’s rights. While PDVSA can argue that it should not hire anyone that participated in the 2002/2003 strike, up to today not one case has been processed y Venezuelan Courts to prove that anyone did illegally participate in the strike or caused any damage to PDVSA. Thus, PDVSA would use an arbitrary criteria in establishing this for hiring.
But what is clearly discriminatory and in violation of Venezuela’s legislation is to reject suppliers, either because they are owned or have personnel which is in PDVSA’s database of people that participated in the strike.
This letter clearly demonstrate that discrimination for political reasons continues in PDVSA under Chavez and it admits that other procedures, such as the Tascon/Chavez fascist list have been used in the past to discriminate against those that disagree with the Government.
In fact, such discrimination is widespread, as anyone who worked at PDVSA and was illegally fired in 2003 is in a black list used by most Government institutions and can’t possibly find a job with the Government. This has particularly hit hard people with high academic qualifications, who have had to emigrate as all research institutions in the country and most academic ones are run by the State.
The Devil's Excrement 