Of thin skins, hot peppers and critical mass

September 19, 2006


My friend, physicist Claudio Mendoza wrote an article in El Nacional last Wednesday, entitled “Critical mass”, in which in a very pedagogical fashion and linking it to the play Copenhagen, currently being shown in Caracas, Claudio, who won the Polar Science award a few years ago, describes what critical mass is, how the German nuclear project failed to see that using an isotope of Uranium would make a bomb possible and how the bomb was made to work. He also describes how the number of centrifuges a country uses can give indications if it is embarking on a plan to make a bomb or not. I note that Claudio just signed the article as Claudio Mendoza, without indicating where he works.

In closing, Claudio, who has a fine sense of humor and irony says, adding a peaceful tone:

“Do we really want to survive? We are terrified at the intransigence of countries who decidedly want to sneak in (into the Nuclear Club): North Korea, Iran and now our dear Venezuela. But in our case there is something that gives us some sense of tranquility: the revolutionary scorn for experts. Here we build bridges without engineers, we make diagnoses without doctors, refine oil without oil engineers, we educate without being teachers, and we govern without being statesmen.

Will we then exploit nuclear energy obviating physicists”

To everyone’s surprise, on Sunday, a paid ad (“communique” in local official speak) appeared in a newspaper different than the one in which Claudio’s opinion piece appeared, signed by the Board of Directors of Venezuela’s premier scientific institution IVIC, which thanks to the strange technology used by some local papers to publish their internet editions, you can read in Spanish here, and says:

“The Board of Directors of IVIC, upon learning about the opinion article published in El Nacional on September 13th. 2006, page A8, under the title “Critical Mass”, signed by citizen Claudio Mendoza, considers it opportune to express its concerns for the concepts contained in it and points out the following:

–In the article, statements are made in relation with nuclear activities in the country that supposedly could be being carried out in the country that have no foundation on proven facts.

–The person signing the article is a researcher at the Physics Department of IVIC and as such he should know that to give an opinion on topics as delicate as the use of nuclear energy, he should have the specialized knowledge on the matter. Especially in fulfilling the fundamentals of professional ethics as to not affirming things that have no support on facts.

–We need to emphasize that according to Article 28, section 2 of the Law that created IVIC, acting in this way could affect the institutional credibility and interest of IVIC, since within it peaceful uses of nuclear energy are developed through the Nuclear Technology Department, the PEGAMMA plant, Sanitary Radio physics, nuclear engineering and calibration and dosimetry, ion which highly qualified and specialized personnel works on nuclear matters and its peaceful applications, besides IVIC having a Commission of Nuclear Safety.

–Similarly, we must note that this way of acting on the part of the person signing the article, not only questions the institution where he works, but also the country, since it attempt to make it seem as if our Nation is involved in activities that could entail great damages to the security of the State, which we find unacceptable as a way of behaving.

Thus, because of the above, we make it known to public opinion; our total rejection for the unfounded and irresponsible statements made y that researcher of IVIC.”

Jeez, where do I start to laugh at this overreaction by a bunch of humorless bureaucrats of this silly revolution

Aren’t they the same ones that prohibited a researcher from talking to the press about her conclusions on increased levels of anemia in young children in the northern states of the plains?

—Aren’t they the same ones who collaborated with the infamous audit of the Electoral Registry by including Anthropologists, Sociologists and low level people from the Physics Department with no relevant acadmic connection to the problem, but bypassed the Math department? What were their “ethical” reasons for this and what “specialized” knowledge or academic qualifications did this people have over the Statisticians from the Math Department, if any at all? Wouldn’t “ethics” have indicated not participating in the audit, instead of sending a team that simply followed and supported the ideology of the regime?

—-Why attempt to disqualify Dr. Mendoza, who has a Ph.D. in Physics while exalting the qualifications of the personnel of the Nuclear Departments, none of which even have a Ph.D. or any academic recognition in their fields?

—-
Isn’t the paid communiqué, besides being a waste of money, an attempt to intimidate Claudio Mendoza and others within the IVIC community who may dare speak publicly against the Government or official scientific policy (If any)?

—–Are these guys so arrogant to think that the Government would actually tell them what Chavez’; nuclear plans are? Thie loyalty does not guarantee reciprocity on Chavez’ part. Do they really belive they know everything that happens in science and technology or will be privy to it?

—–Finally, I can’t help but see and overreaction in the communiqué, which indicates to me that maybe there is more to the whole thing that even Claudio knows or suggests. In fact, I ahve yet to hear these lackeys of the autocrat complain when our illustrious President has already involved our country with “activities” that represent a danger to our Nation, be it its relationship with the FARC, Syria, Saddam Hussein or the hero’s welcome and outright support to the President of Iran or the way he has divided Venezuelans into two camps as if there were a religious war?

Who do they think they are kidding?

Why the thin skin?

As the spanish saying goes “El que se pica es porque aji come” (If it burns, maybe you are eating hot peppers or in Latin, stolen from the comments:Excusatio non petita, acusatio manifesta.)


The robolution at its best: Piensa mal y acertaras!

September 18, 2006


The
biggest economic problem confronting the Chavez administration today is inflation. Four months
of hyperinflation in the Food and Beverages category, reaching 19.9% between May
and August should be enough to have the Government call for emergency Cabinet
meetings to attack the problem. But it has not happened.

Instead,
we have gotten a slew of wishy washy statements by various Government officials, as our tropical Marco Polo travels abroad doing what he likes best: Avoid the local problems he can
not tackle and promote his intrenational image.

It is
clear that the inflation problem is easy to understand; the financial system has
been flooded by money as the Government has increased spending dramatically in
the face of the December elections. So, the solution is simple: reduce
liquidity.

There are a numbers of ways of accomplishing this:

–Have the
Central Bank absorb liquidity. This would help, unfortunately, it has already
been done so much, that the Central Bank is losing money and can not afford to do increase it

–Spend
less: the Government has clearly stated it refuses to do that. Are you kidding me? Chavez is very good at announcing, not doing.

–Have
CADIVI approve everything that is submitted to it; It is already doing so,
imports will be close to US$ 30 billion for the year. Local  industry is getting killed.

–Increase
interest rates so that people are encouraged to save. The problem is that they would
have to increase it so much in order to make it attractive, since interest
rates are deeply negative.

–Remove
exchange controls. Sure, as if this Government is ready to give up such a
political and powerful tool.

–Issue
dollar denominated bonds in exchange for local currency, much like the Government has done in
the last two or three years. This would be the easiest way to absorb liquidity.
Despite this, the Government has been talking about doing it, but postponing it for no reason. As the problem gets worse, it announces it may do barely US$ 500 million by
mid-October. What gives? Aren’t they interested in reducing inflation? How can
they not do this, given that it is so simple, sell a bond for Bolivars, remove those
Bolivars from the system, presto, easy economic recipe!

Not so
fast. As the Spanish saying goes: “Piensa mal y acertaras!” (Think badly and you
will be right on target!)

You see,
if the Government were to issue a large bond, say two billion, in US$ and sell it to the
public and institutions at large, it would have to do it in a more transparent
way and would be competing with the sale of Argentinean bonds that is done
weekly by Fonden, which has no transparency and is enriching a number of people beyond
their wildest dreams.

You see,
these sales are done with total discretion and no transparency by the financial
authorities as to who gets the bonds and at what price. Apparently, it mostly
goes to “friends” of the administration who reportedly have to pay someone for
each dollar assigned to them. Every week a few hundred million dollars are assigned
this way to friendly institutions, without any transparency. Imagine someone
making a profit of say only Bs.100 per dollar. Multiply by one hundred million
a week.

Get the picture?
If a huge two billion dollar issue were sold publicly, not only would it not go
to the friends, but it would seriously compete with the weekly sale of these
Argentinean bonds and its corresponding “profits”. It would just kill the goose
that is laying the golden eggs. Thus, no bond issue has been placed in the market
despite many announcements to that effect in the last few months.  

Maybe
those involved are worried about the outcome of the December elections, maybe they are not,
but just in case, it would not hurt to make a few more million dollars, before
the “you know what” hits the fan. Inflation? Chavez’ popularity? The people?

They could
just care less.

You see,
when these bonds are sold, no liquidity is removed from the financial system,
Fonden simply exchanges its dollars for the Bolivars to spend in its projects. The
Boliars stay in the system. So the mechanism competes with “their” market, but
it does not have the desired objective in terms of the Government. It has no effect on inflation

Such is
the way of the pretty robolution…


Long day, long and wasted eight years!

September 17, 2006

It has been a long weekend, lots of things to say after Chavez, during Chavez’ one day visit to Venezuela, has
talked on and on and on all afternoon and evening, rambling as he welcomes the “peaceful” President of Iran, who “only” wants to obliterate Israel.This does not make the Venezuelan-Jewish community very happy,
they decide this is too much for their
dignity, as it should be. Will other groups take a stand or are they too busy making moeny?

Meanwhile, Rosales protested the closeness of
Venezuela’s relations with a terrorist country, which certainly sets
him appart from the autocrat’s view of the world. Chavez , on teh other hand, refuses to recognize Calderon as president of Mexico, clearly intervening in that country’s affairs when he refuses to accept
what Mexico’s Electoral Court did. So, we lose our good and close friends in
order to satisfy the whims and hormonal problems of the by now nutty
autocrat, whose agenda does not represent that of Venezuelan citizens or Venezuela, Venezuelans could not tell or empathize with an Iranian if they saw one (Some of my best friends are Iranian, but they left long ago!) and could care less about
those country’s problems, much like Chavez acts with this country’s problems.Yes, the problems for the average Venezuelan are
how to eat and how to survive, while Chavez keeps giving away the wealth
and the country to others. Of course, he eats well daily and he dresses even better.He is part of the new and wealthy Venezuelan robolutionary oligarchy.

As China decides to get caterpillar
tractors, Venezuela goes with crappy Iranian ones, Chavez lets these
foreigners run the joint tractor venture, despite the 50/50 split (Even if I
have no proof the Iranains ever paid their share). Very quickly, a strike
hits the plant as the Iranians refuse to increase salaries, because
profits will dissapear and they even try to fire people when they go on
strike. So, let’s now build a petrochemical plant! Wonder who will run it? You have to love fundamentalist capitalism, which contrasts
with XXIst. Century Socialism, which we are told we will find out what
it’s before Chavez leaves in 2027. Could Iranian capiatlism and the new oligarchy’s corruption decide one day to stop the robolution?

But it is late. I am tired, it has been a long weekend with orchids and all and I can only smile when I see where Alek showered
this morning, but have to wonder how many foreigners (or PSF’s for that
matter) even got the meaning of that picture. I can not even find the
link to the silly interview where our chief stupid President says Fidel
is and should be the President of Venezuela and the Universe. What is with Hugo
Chavez? Doesn’t he even have dignity? He acts around Fidel like a
little kid around Micky Mouse. Hopefully that silly bearded mousy icon will
be dead soon, so that Chavez and Venezuela can get on with their life,
their needs and the much needed agenda, because so far, it has simply
been…

EIGHT LOST YEARS! using a sign that you can see all over Caracas these days, except much like the picture above they are chopping off fingers as their goals and promises, like everything else, are simply reduced. Hopefully, they will lose at least one hand….


Pictures of an exhibition

September 16, 2006

This weekend was the orchid exhibit of the Miranda State society of orchids. This typically takes place at the end of September, but for reasons of availability of the locale (which is free), it took place two weeks ahead of the usual time which I think went against the event, because most people did not have too many plants in flower.

The good part was that I took my camera and tripod and went at opening time, before there were crowds. This allowed me to take much better pictures despite the fact that there was very poor ligthing in some spots and lots of breeze. Below a collage of 16 plants.

I only had three plants that were exhibition quality, two Dendrobum species and a Cattleya Jenmanii. One of the Dendrobium won second place in its class and the Cattleya Jenmanii won second place too. My cousing also went with me and took three plants along and one of his plants, a Dendrobium Spectabile, won first place in its class (dendrobium species) and first place in its group (All Dendrobiums). He was extremely pleased. Below, some of the plants I liked the most (from left to right for each row):

Catasetum, Laelia Anceps, Schomburkia undulata alba and Leilocattleya

Cyrropetalum hybrid, my cousin’s Dendrobium Spectabile that won 1st prize,Phragmipedium hybrid and Oncidium hybrid

Cattelya  Giga alba, Cattleya Lueddemanniana (Best national flower of the exhibit), Phalenopsis and Cattleya Percivaliana.

Hybrid, two pictures from different angles of a spectacular Stanhopea and the Dendrobium Formosum which gave me second prize.


Chavez’ campaign list only shows his agenda

September 16, 2006

Yesterday
pro-Chavez newspaper Vea had the Head of Chavez’ campaign, Francisco Ameliach, who
“revealed” a list of the eight aspects that the opposition will use
to “attack and discredit the Government and candidate Hugo Chavez”.
Let’s look at it:

1.- Chavez is giving away the country
2.- Chavez aligns with and collaborates with terrorism
3.- Crime and corruption prevail in Venezuela as a result of the ineffectiveness of this Government
4.- Venezuela ahs a dictatorial Government which does not respect human rights
5.- Chavez wants to bring Venezuela to war with the US
6.- Chavez is buying votes with the people’s wealth for Venezuela to get a seat
at the UN’s Security Council
7.- Chavez intervenes in other country’s internal affairs
8.- The Chavez Government does not have respect for private property.

Now, I think the list can be looked upon in two different ways: What is true in
the list and what the opposition will use or not in its campaign.

Of the eight items seven are obviously true and need no discussion: Chavez is
indeed giving away the country’s money, ask London, Uruguay, Argentina and the like,
Chavez does align the country’s foreign policy with country’s like Iran,
Hussein’s Iraq before he was deposed, Syria and its buddies. Crime and corruption have
increased n-fold during these eight terrible years, homicides are up three fold
nationwide and the evidence and results of corruption are out there for all to see. Human rights
are not respected and institutions like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
International have clearly said so. We have all seen Chavez kissing butt all over the
world to buy votes for the Security Council. As for interfering with other
country’s affairs, ask Mexico,
Peru, Bolivia and
more to come soon. Finally, to say that this Government is respectful of
private property is a real laugher, the Constitution is not even followed when properties are expropriated or threatened with expropriation.

Now, the only item I disagree with is saying that Chavez wants war with the US or this will be a campaign issue. While
keeping his anti-Yankee, anti-Bush, anti-Condoleezza policy, Chavez has done little to provoke a war, nor does he seem to want it. In fact, even
today he is looking for some sort of meeting in Washington DC,
which he has desired and sought for ever since he became President.

What I think is stupid is to think that Rosales’ campaign will make an issue
of many of these topics. I don’t think Rosales is going to talk about Chavez’ autocratic
friends or his intervention into other country’s affairs or even talk much
about Chavez
buying votes for the Security Council. Rosales is clearly emphasizing all local issues: helping
the poor, crime, unemployment, investment and inflation. Remarkably only two of the these are in the list.

This simply means that, in the end, Rosales will make a big issue of only three of
the eight items in the list above: Giving away the people’s money, crime and security and property
rights. The rest are the issues that Chavez gives priority in his agenda, but
so far Rosales has been very good at not allowing Chavez to set his.

By election day, food inflation will have gone up nearly 40% for the year and if Chavez’ campaign thinks that this will not be the focus of Rosales campaign, then they are more out of touch than I previously believed.

What the list does show is that truly the Government is thinking too much about
Chavez’ international agenda, which most Venezuelans could care the least
about. Note that five of the eight items are part of Chavez’ international
agenda or issues that are not part of the day to day concerns of the average
Venezuelans, suggesting that even the strategy is an out of touch strategy
which may backfire is these are the issues the Chavez campaign will emphasize.

Chavez much like his arch-enemy George W. is now emphasizing his international agenda over local problems, a curious and common trait about ambitious leaders. But Venezuelans could care less. In the end it is day to day matters that count. I am pretty sure that within a month Chavez will no longer be travelling much and that the above list will be changed dramatically, unless his campaign is ready to make a colossal mistake.


Helping the London poor or solidarity with the rich

September 15, 2006

So, Daniel squares off in London’s Evening Standard below with the
“International Secretary of the Hands off Venezuela Campaign” who
somehow wants to justify Venezuela subsidzing the diesel to the London
Metropolitan bus system, as a subsidy for the poor. This person should
travel to Venezuela and realize that the 10 percentile of the poorest
in London that rides that system is likely to be in the top 90
percentile of wealth in Venezuela. Poor in a city like London, with the highest
standard of living in Europe, could even be middle class in Venezuela, but
explain that to ignorant  PSF’s! That subsidy to London, is as nutty as the US$ 10
billion subsidy which Venezuelans with cars receive when they buy a
gallon of gasolline for some US$ 0.16. Those that have cars in this
country are in the top 30% of the population by wealth, if not higher.

Daniel
correctly points out that the Mayor of London will hopefully do a
follow up on the aid promised by Chavez, to make sure it is not more than the usual
bombastic announcemnet that our President has accustomed us to, such as
the eight employment programs that never materialized, the many joint ventures with companies abroad (Petrobras says deals with Venezuela have had a 100% failure rate) or the
Petrocaribe program, which one year after its creation, only 5 countries
are receving, of the 16 that signed up for it. Some countries did have the dignity not to do participate it realizing the meaning and objectives of the program.

Meanwhile Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual also puts in his two cents, calling the PSF Mayor of London “a pimp by vocation” in the artcile below blasting Hugo’s latest solidarity with the rich antics.

Hugo saves London by Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

Our guy, definitely is raving by now

His last crazy idea is astonishing: to sell, at reduced prices, below
those of the marketplace, 1 million 300 thousand barrels of diesel a year to the
city of London, whose city council will “pay” with technical advise to the City
Council of Caracas on matters of garbage collection, transit and others of the same
type. The diesel will be used to move the fleet of municipal buses of the English
capital. Thus, a small and backwards country, full of poor people, with its President
“concerned” for the poor of London, will insure them cheaper transport, while
in Caracas urban transport is one of the items that hits the pockets of the
poor the most. One of the Earth’s biggest powers, England, which on top of that is an
oil power, will receive such treatment form a poor country.

But, on his side, the Mayor of London. Mr. Livingstone, demonstrates an
amazing vocation as a pimp. With all his leftwing beliefs (the man belongs to
the Labor party’s left) all of those slogans about the solidarity among the
people and the like, which should have taken him to offer Caracas those
consulting jobs for free, he just flushed them in the toilet and grabbed that
easy offer from the irresponsible south American President, because that guy is
indeed an “internationalist”, tailored after the old revolutionary style. Except
that this temporarily wealthy President is inaugurating a new form of “internationalism”:
at the same time that he denounces imperialism, he helps solve the problems of
the great imperial powers. For the English, what is happening must be a source
of consternation, but for us Venezuelans it is a scorn, an outrage, an insult. To
the squandering of our money, to the giving away of dollars to other countries,
to demential projects such as financing a fort in the border of Bolivia with
Brazil, we now add this gesture towards the London Mayor, which simply overflows
our patience. It is one thing to express solidarity with those that are doing
worse than us, to which we will never refuse anything and a completely
different one to have delirious waste, carried out only to strengthen the pedestal
of the statute that Chavez is building at the planetary scale.

His non sense invades other areas too. As a continental referee, naming
the rope in the home of the hanged, he “evaluates” the possibilities of reestablishing
relations with Mexico
because, according to him. The elections in that country had “strange happenings”
You need balls!

Chavez protesting for electoral irregularities in
another country! He could not stand a report from the European Union about the Venezuelan
elections without being seized with a hydrophobic attack, but in a laid back
way becomes a busybody and intervenes in matters that he has not been called
upon to even give an opinion. As if that were not enough, he now offers help to
Iran “in any setting” if it
were invaded by the US.
Is he going to stop selling Venezuelan oil to the US in that case? Is he going to
send troops to Miami?
Is he going to send them eventually to Iran? Anyone can allow himself a
certain level of being a bragging, but without abusing it. This ridicule is
simply too big!


The voters ask the CNE

September 14, 2006


Gonzalo Garcia
Ordóñez wrote this for Tal Cual today. I thought I would translate it and we could all add new questions in the comments and I will post the new ones at the end of the list as they appear.

The voters ask the CNE


1. Which law authorizes the military electoral operation the so called “Republic Plan” to operate the fingerprint machines?


2. In which article and of which law is the CNE authorized to use blank voting notebooks for its voters?


3. Which law authorizes the Directors of the Electoral Power to turn over the Electoral Registry to the political parties with no addresses?


4. In which part of our electoral legislation do electronic voting notebooks appear?


5. Why doesn’t the CNE give out information about the results of the in situ audits?


6. Why isn’t there a “social electoral comptroller” for the results, machine by machine, record by record, on the Internet, before a winner is declared?


7. Why don’t the military members of the Republic Plan have their right to vote guaranteed and appear in the electoral notebooks?


8. Why were voters changed, without authorization, from their voting centers and why their slow relocation to the original voting centers?


9. Why does the CNE authorize the mobilization of reservists outside their voting centers


10. When we are talking about violations of the Constitution on Electoral matters, why doesn’t the CNE act, for example, in the case of public workers in their Government jobs who are actively campaigning?


11. Has the Electoral Power seen the political advertising on the side of the UNEFA building, a building under a special military regime


12. Who allows Minister William Lara to give statements for the media with MVR propaganda on the background?


13. Why, if the law forbids it, does the Government candidate use the name of Miranda in his political campaign?


14. Why does the CNE allow that the Government, when using the space given to it under the Law of social responsibility of radio and TV, identify itself as the Bolivarian Government of Venezuela? What would happen if an adeco, copeyano, or justicial Mayor identified its Government as Adeco, Copeyano or Juticicial Government? For example: Justicial Municipality of Baruta?


15. Which law authorizes active military that are part of the Chiefs of Staff to participate in electoral political matters?


16. Was it a violation or provocation to the rule of law, the public and noted fact, as the Prosecutor would say, that active military who are part of the President’s security, accompanied the President dressed with red shirts on the day he registered his candidacy


17. How does the CNE plan to separate Government events from the political campaign, for example, billboards paid by Governors, Mayors, and Pdvsa?


18. Can all Venezuelans participate in the totaling of the tally sheets via Internet, that is, that each witness knows that the computerized results of his poll booth are the correct ones?


19. What will happen to the electoral waste accumulated at the CNE?


20. How can one trust CNE Board members who are pro-Government and a CNE committed to the revolution?


Dr. Tibisay Lucena, the people are not stupid and know what is going on, but they still aspire to free and transparent elections.


New ones:


21. Why is that the “Con Chavez el Pueblo es el Gobierno” and “Con Chavez todo el Poder para el Pueblo” slogans are not forbidden in official ads?


A cartoon that describes the robolution quite well

September 14, 2006

Of course we are going to enrich uranium, but first things first


Princeton group hacks Diebold voting machine

September 14, 2006

Abstract from the Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton University on breaking the security of a Diebold voting machine, should we make a collection and send them a Smartmatic machine? You can watch the video showing the hacking:. Who was it that said Venezuela had the safest voting system in the world? Ignorance is bliss indeed!

Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting Machine

Ariel J. Feldman, J. Alex Halderman, and Edward W. Felten

Abstract   This paper presents a fully independent
security study of a Diebold AccuVote-TS voting machine, including its
hardware and software. We obtained the machine from a private party.
Analysis of the machine, in light of real election procedures, shows
that it is vulnerable to extremely serious attacks. For example, an
attacker who gets physical access to a machine or its removable memory
card for as little as one minute could install malicious code;
malicious code on a machine could steal votes undetectably, modifying
all records, logs, and counters to be consistent with the fraudulent
vote count it creates. An attacker could also create malicious code
that spreads automatically and silently from machine to machine during
normal election activities — a voting-machine virus. We have
constructed working demonstrations of these attacks in our
lab. Mitigating these threats will require changes to the voting
machine’s hardware and software and the adoption of more rigorous
election procedures.


September 14, 2006

From today’s Financial Times (subscription required after a couple of days)

Treating Chávez as a harmless idealist is dangerous by Richard Lapper in the Financial Times

Over
the past few months Hugo Chávez has put the most inveterate traveller
to shame. One minute the endlessly energetic, anti-American president
of Venezuela is in Moscow signing a deal to buy military helicopters
and manufacture Kalashnikovs; the next he is in Beijing promising to
step up oil sales to China; and then he is in Damascus threatening,
alongside Bashar Assad, president of Syria, to “dig the grave of US
imperialism”.

In between, he finds time to visit assorted African
and Asian capitals in order to press his campaign to win one of the
temporary seats on the United Nations Security Council. This week he is
in Havana where he is soon likely to be bashing the Americans again at
the summit of the non-aligned movement.

It
is still customary for critics, outside Venezuela at least, to dismiss
Mr Chávez as an eccentric idealist lost in the kind of romantic
fantasies that one of his favourite literary characters, Don Quixote,
used to pursue. Mr Chávez might sound like a dangerous extremist but
like Cervantes’ hero he is essentially harmless, the argument runs.

Apologists,
such as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, al-ways
draw the distinction between what Mr Chávez says and what he does. “I
know that speeches often worry people. But a speech is a speech,” Mr
Lula da Silva told the Financial Times a couple of months ago. Mr
Chávez, after all, they argue, has been democratically elected. The
scope for radical action is tempered by harsh economic realities. He
may rail about blocking oil sales to the US but this is an empty
threat. Caracas is dependent on its hated northern neighbour for about
half its oil revenues.

Unfortunately, this kind of benign
interpretation of Mr Chávez and his government is looking a lot less
credible. Venezuela’s oil sales are being slowly diversified towards
China and other countries. Mr Chávez’s democratic credentials are more
than a little tarnished of late. If he is such a convinced democrat why
has he begun to talk about the need – as he did 10 days ago – for a
constitutional change that would allow him to remain in power
indefinitely?

Once seen as an outlier against a more moderate
underlying leftwing trend, Mr Chávez no longer looks so isolated in his
region. Cuba and Bolivia are firm allies. No foreign leader has visited
Fidel Castro more than Mr Chávez since the Cuban president’s stomach
surgery at the end of July. Politicians close to Mr Chávez are well
placed in upcoming presidential polls in Nicaragua and Ecuador.

Mr
Chávez’s latest phase of international activism has been accompanied by
ever more strident anti-Americanism. Underpinning this is a Manichean
view of the world. Listening to him, it seems that US “imperialism” is
responsible for all the world’s ills. Mr Chávez rarely misses an
opportunity to bait the giant. This week, for example, he claimed that
the US might have fabricated the September 11 2001 attacks on the twin
towers in New York.

Anyone the American empire opposes is his
friend, a stance that explains why he is such a fan of dictators such
as Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. Links with Iran and Syria have
become more prominent. Indeed, along with Cuba and Syria, Venezuela is
leading international support for Iran’s nuclear energy ambitions.

Membership
of the UN Security Council would offer Mr Chávez another platform. He
would not enjoy a veto over the body’s decisions. But his style could
make the search for the diplomatic middle ground harder. While Europe,
Asia and the US grope towards a more consensual, multilateral approach
to the complex problems of the Middle East, Mr Chávez or his
representatives are likely to grandstand and shoot from the hip,
creating conflict and division.

Mr Chávez is unlikely to win the
regional consensus that would automatically entitle him to the seat but
he could well win the two-thirds majority at next month’s general
assembly meeting. UN members should turn him down. Countries should not
be blinded by their own difficulties with the US into offering support.

In
Latin America, moderate leaders such as Mr Lula da Silva and Chile’s
Michelle Bachelet have a particular responsibility. Standing firm
against Mr Chávez is not the same as accepting the dictates of the US
administration. They may disagree strongly with the US administration’s
policy in the Middle East and elsewhere.

But they should not – in reaction to that – give encouragement to knee-jerk anti-Americanism.