The surprising pro-Uribe vote of Colombians in Venezuela

June 2, 2006

I was a little surprised by the votes of Colombians that live in
Venezuela in the Colombian Presidential election. The profile of
Colombian immigrants is not that of the Venezuelan population at large,
thus you would expect the vote to be less pro-Uribe than Colombia’s
numbers.

The opposite was true. Uribe got over 95% in Puerto la Cruz and Merida,
over 85% in Puerto Ordaz, 77% in Tachira, Valencia and Barinas. In
Caracas in middle class Baruta he got 81.6%, while in Chavez’ stronghold
Catia, he got 66.7%. In Catia, Chavistas actually tried to get the vote
out against Uribe. All the voting centers had more pro-Uribe votes that
the National vote in Colombia which gave Uribe the victory with 62% of
the vote.

Different socio-cultural patterns or do Colombians simply count the
votes correctly? Or both?


Spoken like a true revolutionary

June 1, 2006

Chavez’ lawyer Esther Bigott de Loaiza, the same one with the $18 million retainer problem, will supposedly be charged by the Prosecutor for being at a meeting of opposition figures in order to attempt to block the jailing of a businessman for being one of the people behind the Anderson assasination. Supposedly she was gpoing to split a Bs. 1 billion (US$ 465 thousand at the official rate or US$ 384 thousand at the parallel rate) payment to intervene in his behalf. Her response?

“I would not meet with conspirators for only Bs. 500 million. Anyone that thinks so does not know what I charge. No way, that is not enough even to go on vacation”

Spoken like a true revolutionary!


Another poor job by the NYT on Venezuela and its heavy crudes

June 1, 2006

I find it remarkable that this type of article gets by the New York Times Editors. besides the many factual errors like production levels, area and the like, there is the fact that indeed Venezuela may have amazing reserves of heavy crudes, but funny how no mention is made of the Alberta tar sands, which may not have the reserves of the Venezuelan ones, but it may only be a factor of two off.

Business people are not brain dead. When they decide to go somewhere and invest, they run numbers, do risk analysis, then models and that determines where they will invest. So compare the conditions in Venezuela and Canada, which the people who wrote the NYT article appear to have no clue about neither of them, and you get:

Venezuela:

Breach of contracts.
No rule of Law.
PDVSA has to own at leats 60%
33% royalties
50% income tax
Breakeven point ~$25 per barrel

Canada:

Rule of Law
You may own 100% of the production company
Royalties of 1% until revenues generated are equal to investment, 16.6% after that
24-28% income taxes.
Breakeven point ~$12 per barrel

Yes, costs in Venezuela are somewhat lower, lower labor costs, fewer enviromental regulations, but the difference is simply not worth it. That is the reason why Canada’s heavy crude production is already twice the Venezuelan one and growing, while Venezuela’s is not epexcted to increase in the next two years.


Chavez’ brainless diplomacy at the OPEC meeting inauguration

June 1, 2006


Today
at the opening ceremony of the OPEC meeting in Caracas, Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez, remembered
a letter
written to him, and his reply to it, by his “friend” the
terrorist Carlos
“The Jackal”
, ,who is serving a lifetime sentence in a French
prison for killing three people in Paris, including two secret service agents.

This was a touching and brainless remembrance by our President in front of the
OPEC delegates, given that Carlos “The Jackal” is infamous for, among
many terrorists acts, the kidnapping
the 12 Ministers of OPEC
, holding 70 people hostage and killing the
security detail at OPEC’s Vienna’s headquarters. Reportedly he got paid one
million dollars for this action by none other than Libya’s President Gaddafi.

What’s next, toasting Bin Laden at the dinner which closes the event? Anything is
possible in the mindless ways of Hugo Chavez.


A heartbreaking video of hunger and infant deaths in Venezuela

June 1, 2006

I know most of you don’t speak Spanish, but these are images of a town in Zulia where 30 kids die monthly, where hunger and malnutrition are the rule of the day, while Chavez travels giving away the country’s money to promote himself. Maybe it is better you don’t understand, it is simply heartbreaking.


Another sweet deal for the financial system: The Revolution marches on!

May 31, 2006


You have
to wonder about this Government and the financial system. So much ideology,
attacks on the oligarchs and the rich, but the Venezuelan banking system has
made money hand over fist ever since the ignorant Colonel became President. I have
outlined in these pages how the Venezuelan financial system has benefited from
so many Government operations and gifts that simply make no sense. Yes, they are stuck with
absurd amounts of Government paper, but they keep making money as the boats
sinks.

The latest
measure this week was for the Central Bank
to increase the amount of foreign currency the banks may have from 15% of their
equity to 30%. So, in the midst of exchange controls, now all of a sudden banks
can increase their net dollar position by a factor of two!. Not even in the horrible times of the
IVth. Republic did this limit go above 15%, but now the revolutionaries double
it! Your everyday Venezuelan can’t protect himself or herself from devaluation,
but banks are allowed to increase their protection. What gives?

The
ostensible explanation given by Government officials is that this will allow
the Government to reduce the excess monetary liquidity without having the
Central Bank, which is already in the red and in deep trouble, issue more CD’s.
Well, as we say in the vernacular, this
explanation is simply “mierda de toro”.

You see,
banks have no access to CADIVI or exchange-controlled dollars, thus, if they want
to purchase dollars, they have to go to the parallel market or the Argentinean
bond market, controlled by the Government. In either of these, the Bolivars they pay for the dollars don’t
get sterilized or disappear from the money supply, but they simply go back into
the system. This only happens when you go through the Central Bank. In the swap
market the Bolivars go to whoever is selling the dollars. In the case of the Argentinean
bonds, they go to Fonden which in this way gets bolivars, since it only got
dollars when it was funded from the “excess” reserves taken away from the Central
Bank. The only reason Fonden wants to have Bolivars is to spend them, so the
Bolivars go back into the monetary liquidity very fast.

Thus, the
only likely mechanism for the banks to go from 15% to 30% of their equity in
foreign currency is to buy Argentinean bonds or buy Venezuelan Government bonds
directly from the Government whenever it offers one of those Bs/US$ sweet
deals.

And that
is probably where the explanation lays. In the last few weeks emerging bond
markets have been jittery and both Argentinean and Venezuelan Government bonds
have been very volatile. By “sweetening” the deal for the banks, they will be
more amenable to take the risk of acquiring foreign currency to protect their
equity via these bonds. Thus, the Government with this new measure has simply
guaranteed that they can place the US$ 600 million in Argentinean bonds it
still has in stock or any new Bs./US$ bond they may want to issue in the near
future.

Thus, the revolution
ain’t got any principles my friends and is willing to let the oligarchic capitalists
make a bundle if it fits their goals. The average Venezuelan can go screw his
or herself and remain unprotected from any devaluation, which of course will
make them poorer, but Chavez and the politicians simply don’t care. Politics above all!


Tale of the two realities of Venezuela

May 31, 2006

A friend pointed out these two contradictory headlines next to each other in today’s page A6 of El Nacional, that show the two realities Venezuelans are living under Chavez, mainly due to his own personal ambitions. On the left, the pro-Chavez Governor of Apure state complains that there are 750 Kms. of his state where there is no protection. Right next to it, our esteemed Minister of Defense Maniglia proudly announces that Venezuela is sending both military personnel and equipment to Bolivia.

As my mother says: Charity begins at home. I guess the corolary is: Not in an autocracy


Drei wanderer gegen Chavez

May 31, 2006


The above was the headline
of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in its coverage of the walk by Alek Boyd and
Patricia Wegenenast y Mohamad Merhi from Koblenz
to Brussels calling for clean elections in Venezuela. You
can follow the progress of the walk in
this site
expressly created for the walk. The description of the blog says
it all “For a pluralistic Venezuela,
with citizens free to elect their expectations for a better future”. For German
speakers you can also follow it in Patricia’s
blog
or the German version of Una Venezuela, Ein Venezuela. They will arrive in
Brussels
tomorrow where they will meet with European Union officials.

Please drop by and give them your moral support for this important
effort to raise awareness about our problems. As you will see in the pictures,
it is not easy walking 40 Kms. a day.

Thanks to Alek, Patricia and Mohamad for their effort!


Big News

May 31, 2006

Chavez may visit Venezuela today!


A Chavista specialty: Twisting the facts to fit your story

May 30, 2006


One must
recognize that the Chavez administration has a remarkable ability to turn
issues into a fuzzy area where unless you know the details, everything looks
fine from afar, but in reality it isn’t.


This week
we have seen this twice, both in the case of the riots at the Universidad de Los Andes and the case of the audit of the electoral
registry that the muniversities have proposed:

The audit of the electoral registry:
Some of the best technical universities in the country proposed onths ago that they could
do a better audit of the electoral registry than any international institution.
Moreover, they argued, if the gave the green light to the registry, people
would have confidence in it. Two of the three universities involved (UCV and USB) generate
90% of the university research in Venezuela, as measured by their yearly publications.

Problem is
that there are many more universities, some of which began (in jealousy!) complaining that they
were not involved in the process. Well, in the spirit of collaboration and
cooperation, seven other universities were included in the project. Problem was, in the spirit
of democracy, each university also has a vote in the process, and therein lays the
problem and likely that was precisely the trap.

You see
the seven universities have been acting much like the old Chavez-dominated
National Assembly in that everything they propose is voted on dand there is little
discussion and at the end the vote is mostly seven to three according
to the President of Simon Bolivar University
Benjamin Sharifker, himself a
distinguished scientist of international renown.


While
these three universities (UCV, ULA and UCAB) object to the procedure, their main
concern at this time is the fact that the CNE refuses to allow an audit that
involves looking outside the CNE register, like using public death or borth registers, geographical
demographics and the like. Last night these three universities were ready to pull
out of the project and today they will make a final decision on the matter.


Clearly,
the audit has to look beyond what the Electoral registry contains. By looking at birth records and ID
records at the national scale, one can tell whether the registry is consistent
or not, whether it has been inflated with ghost voters or not and whether
people vote more than once.

If the CNE
wins the battle, the three universities will withdraw from the process, but the
Chavez Government will proceed to tell the world how the registry is squeaky clean
and was audited by seven of the “best” universities in the country. And the
world will believe it and nod in agreement that Chavez is truly the most democratically
elected President of the Western world since Alvaro Uribe.

The riots at the Universidad de Los Andes: The origin of the riots is the ruling by the
Venezuelan Supreme Court that the University may not have the autonomy to hold
its own elections for student union. The decision was made at the request of an
injunction by a pro-Chavez student group that lost the last election and
appeared to be going to lose this one by an even wider margin. Thus, the Court admitted the case and stopped the election from taking place.

The issue
arises because the new
Constitution
says (Art. 293) that the CNE will organize and supervise all
elections for unions, professional associations and political organizations”. However
the same Constitution (Art. 109) recognizes that Universities are autonomous in
their organization. This principle has been in Venezuelan law for quite a while
and is common in most of Latin America. It also has been at the crux of most student/Government conflicts in Venezuela’s history. The question is whether these organizations are covered or not by autonomy.

It has
been understood since 2000 when the new Constitution was approved that universities
have autonomy and indeed they have organized all elections, except in one
University where the Government has not carried out any elections as
established by law. (Interestingly, the “democratic”
union created by Chavez UNT, has yet to hold elections which is stopping all other individual union
elections from taking place for more than 250 trade unions. Incredibly, UNT is
apparently thinking
of postponing any elections once again until next year,
so they can devote all their time and energy to getting Chavez reelected! Screw the rank and files and their problems!)

Well, last
week when the students learned of the intervention of their election by the
Supreme Court, they started protesting. This led to the National Guard raiding
the University with tanks, which in turn led to more violent riots. Yes,
students were armed and people were hurt on both sides, but it was the concatenation
of the two events, the Court’s decision and the violation of the autonomy, which was to blame
for the events of the last few days. And they are likely to continue unless
elections are held soon.

But the
Government’s version is that this is nothing but a destabilization plan by the
opposition and the presence of Teodoro Petkoff at that university last Friday,
led Minister Chacon to involve Petkoff in this plan, to which Petkoff responded
today,
calling it a “dirty war” against his candidacy. As usual the People’s Ombudsman
acts like the
Government’s Ombudsman, calling the riots shameful, rather than defending the
rights of everyone involved, guardsmen and students alike.

For once,
something positive is done by this Government, in that the National Assembly proposed
a dialogue to solve the problem, something that we have not seen in the last seven
years where everything has been ordered from the top, the way the autocrat wants
it. Unfortunately, every time I praise something the Government does, they
later come out and screw it up. That is
how democracy works, you talk, you have a dialogu, not the way Chavez wants or likes it. Let’s see if it
lasts.

As far as
I remember, nobody had ever asked for a university election to be organized by the CNE before, the students are asking that the university not organize it, teher seems to be no other option but the CNE, since these are clearly political organizations and Art. 293 would apply.

It has been tacitly understood that autonomy gave the rights of
self determination and organization to the Universities themselves. Unions on
the other hand have largely refused to let the CNE organized their electoral
processes, saying this violates international labor agreements signed by the
Venezuelan Government. The Court admitted the case and will rule in the future.

But it is now wonder the Government wants to supervise
all this. According to Elides Rojas, the Chief of the press room at El
Universal, there have been 112 electoral processes at unions and universities not
supervised by the CNE in the last two years. Curiously, in a country where
Chavismo never seems to lose an election, 109 of them have been won by the
opposition. This is precisely what the Government wants to stop. (For the PSF’s
reading this, most of these elections have been decided by fairly wide margins
and the pro-Chavez forces have seldom claimed there was fraud.)

Thus, the
Supreme Court’s decision had a very clear political objective. Once again, from
afar, those reading about the riots will believe these students are simply
trying to use this as an excuse to protest and the more naive may even think
Petkoff and the opposition have something to do with the riots. That is exactly how
the Government wants to spin it and it will likely be successful once again. Just
twisting the facts to fit its story.