The Devil's Excrement

The Minister of Science and Technology decided
(needs password) that personnel at all of the institutions that are part
of it should receive a bonus of 35% of six months salary for the following
(also needs password, I can’t get in) employees: administrative,
ranking and “high level”, the “high level” will receive an additional
bonuses of 100% of six months, which applies in the case of IVIC to the
Director and Vice-Director on top of the 35%
already described. Additionally, the members of the Board of IVIC will
receive Bs. 180,000 or roughly half a minimum monthly salary for each weekly
meeting they attend.(This includews the two gusy who got the 135% too)

What about the “obreros”, the laborers who drive, clean, garden, do
maintanance, carpentry, plumbing and the like at IVIC? Well, in the
caring revolution, they get nothing, zilch, zero, no bonus
as the new and encroached Bolivarian oligarchy can only think of
themselves. Whatever happened to distributing the wealth in the
revolution?

So next week’s meeting of the World Trade Organization in Hong Kong
poses a real problem for a Government that has little faith in free
trade. But no matter, the caring revolution will send at last count 106
delegates to the meeting, of which maybe three or four according to my
sources actually speak English. While at the plenary sessions there
will be translations, the technical sessions are in English and that is
where the real work and progress is made in negotiations. Contrast this
delegation with the US one, composed of no more than three dozen
diplomats, experts in the subject. I must speak well of the Minister
though, the original delegation topped 130, which he has been relentlessly trimming to the current level..

Thus, the caring “boliborgeois”, go around the world as tourists in
their role as the new oligarchs, while the poor are still where they
were seven years ago.

Wal Street Journal Editorial today:

The Dictator in Caracas

After last week’s editorial about his oil-for-influence campaign
aimed at the U.S. Congress, several readers objected to our description of
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez as a “dictator.” Let’s hope these forgiving
souls paid attention to Sunday’s congressional elections in that country.

Mr. Chávez’s party or parties sympathetic to his Bolivarian
revolution won all 167 seats in the country’s unicameral congress. Every single
seat. But that Saddam-like sweep was only possible because most Venezuelans
decided not to participate. Even the government admits to an abstention rate of
greater than 75%. While it’s true the opposition boycotted, it did so knowing
how the government had cheated to win the August 2004 recall referendum.

The Chávez transgressions in 2004 included the use of voting
machines in which software was not reviewed, refusal to allow auditing of the
voting registry, not guaranteeing the secrecy of the vote, and using the list of
Venezuelans who had signed the recall petition to threaten the livelihoods of
government employees and contractors. Overseeing it all was a
government-appointed electoral council, which did what it could to outlaw
competition. The European Union was so appalled that it refused even to monitor
the 2004 vote.The EU and Organization of American States did show up this
weekend. But suspicions were heightened before Sunday’s vote when a technician
showed foreign monitors that the fingerprint tracking machines used at the polls
could be used to identify how individuals voted. In a country where the
government owns the means of production (mostly oil), Venezuelans fear that
voting wrong could cost them their jobs.

The government agreed to pull the fingerprint scanners, but the
damage was done. Venezuelans went on electoral strike. Mr. Chávez demanded that
government workers go to the polls, but to little avail. Venezuelans seem to
think they live in a dictatorship. The only issue is whether the rest of the
world, especially the OAS, will have the nerve to admit it.

So tonight at 7 PM EST (I think) you will get to hear me and Daniel Duquenal
follow the Venezuelan Ambassador to the US and Prof. Daniel Hellinger
discuss Venezuelan politics. Not many of you will see this or be able
to tune in, but I thought I would keep you posted.

I undersatnd you can listen to it here.

In
the next couple of days I will figure out how to put the ad in this page, but
this blog together with vcrisis has been
nominated for the 2005
Weblog Awards in the Best Latino, Caribbean, or South American Blog category. Daniel won last year, he will not be eligible this year, making
life easier for Alek and me this time around. Thanks to whoever nominated us
and hopefully you will feel it is worthwhile to go and and vote in this
particular election, where there is no CNE involvement 🙂

It is
quite hard to win an argument with the Chavistas. After the recall vote they
would always resort to the argument that the international observers had given
their approval to the process and thus all charges of cheating and treachery
were simply sour grapes on the part of the opposition. This time around, not
only was it discovered that the voting machines did something they were not
supposed to do, raising questions about the secrecy of the votes in the recall vote, but both the OAS
and the EU,
question even the legality of the process and the reaction is typical: While
the Head of the National Assembly called
the observers drunks, the President of the CNE graciously called them
liars, while the Foreign Minister questioned why
the bombs the day before the election were not mentioned in the reports,
forgetting that every single bomb in the last seven years has been blamed on the
opposition, but not one case has been proven, despite the fact that most of the
explosives found are typically military and as far as we know the opposition is
as far removed form the military as anyone can be.

In fact,
the Head of the Electoral Board continued acting in the same partial way that
the observers accused him of today,
as Mr. Rodriguez
saw his job in possible jeopardy by the recommendation of both observer
groups, saying he would not twist his arm, not understanding that he
was suppsoed to be fair and balanced to both sides and not the one
sided bias he always exhibited. In fact the EU suggest the new CNE
should have “professionals of prestige and
independence, that may enjoy the trust of all sectors”, a dramatically
strong critique of
Mr. Rodríguez and his cohorts.

I would
leave some details of the statements and comments by the EU and OAS to others here
and here, so as not to extend
myself too much, but one thing is clear: The usual diplomatic observers noted
quite a number of irregularities and illegalities in the process, questioning
its validity even if they later used the word transparency and tried to praise
the CNE in its accommodations to the opposition complaints. The fact is, that
each and every one of the “concessions” of the CNE were requested by the opposition
from the beginning, via the technical recommendations of Sumate. But even in
the end, and as ratified by the observers, for example, the agreements and the
law that says that polling stations close at 4 PM if no voters were present
were violated in flagrant fashion by the CNE. And this was only one of many
illegalities committed in the process that in any country with the rule of law would
imply that the Courts would force the Electoral Board to repeat the elections
under better conditions.

The EU observers
noted, among many different things the following:

-Wide
sectors of Venezuelan society simply do not trust the CNE

-The legal
framework is inconsistent and even contradictory

-The
Government created a mechanism of fear in the Maisanta database

-The
Government used public transportation to mobilize voters

-Government
officials campaigned in violation of the law

-The
possibility of compromising the secrecy of the vote was found, the EU thins its
remote, but it used to be impossible two weeks ago.

-It
questioned the legality of the Electoral Board and the contradictions in naming
it

-It questions
the violation the spirit of the Constitution with the use of the morochas or
twins.

-It
accuses media on both sides of being partisan, but it acknowledges that state
media does not give access to all citizens, while private media gave more access
to pro-Government views!

-Voter
assistance questions the secrecy of the vote during the voting process

-There was
illegal campaign by Government forces near voting centers

-Some
people were coerced into signing and stamping their fingerprint as “proof” that
they had voted and for whom.

-Voting hours
were extended illegally!

-The
Electoral Registry should be independently audited (Another forgotten promise)

The OAS is
equally drastic, while shorter, as detailed by Daniel and PMBcomments.

What is
clear to me is that both groups of observers without explicitly saying it were questioning
the legality of the vote that took place on Sunday, from illegal abuse of
power, to extended hours, to a questionable CNE board; the observers basically
said this process doe not fit the expected standards for an electoral process.

So
far
Chavez, has not attacked the observers, but even if he questioned
abstention,
he seemed to gloating once again about his damaged popularity and once
again
promised the failed mirage of his 10 million voters. If he fails to
note what
happened on Sunday, he may not even get 10% of that. The opposition did
not score
a victory at the illegal elections on Sunday, but Chavismo certainly
suffered a
defeat and the reports by the observers underscore that this happened
despite the numerous violations of the law by the Government and the
use of massive state resources.

Watch for reports from the OAS and EU observers today. Will they say
what they think? Will the Chavez Government turn against them tomorrow?
Will they become puppies of imperialism after today? Stay tuned…

“You say you want a revolution
Well you know
we all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know you can count me out
Don’t you know it’s gonna be alright”

The Beatles (1968), Venezuelans (2005)

I
find it truly remarkable that people can even interpret that
yesterday’s results can in any way be thought of as a victory for
Chavismo. Not even the Chavistas are thinking that way and you can
accuse them of being inefficient and incompetent in many ways, but
Chavez and his cohorts have shown to be very good at political strategy
and they are not interpreting this as a victory. Seldom had I seen such
sad faces, as the victory of Chavista Deputies was announced or as
they were being sworn in as Deputies of the National Assembly.

And indeed let us look at what Chavismo said, did and promised for this election:

— Chavez and his supporters had
put up posters and said that they were going to get 10 million votes.
Misguided? Of course it was, this was supposed to be the promise for
next year, but to get there you had to get to a number in between and
that did not happen, their numbers went down, once again. Thsi graph of
abstention since Chavez first won the Presidency has to be worrisome
and scary to anyone in power, claiming to be popular, staging a
revolution and planning to stay for the next 16 years:

—Before the opposition withdrew, Chavez’s MVR and the Government
spent some two trillion Bs. in advertising, mobilization and the like.
Moreover, each and everyone of the Mayors and Governors of Chavismo was
asked to spend as much as possible in getting the vote out. The order
was that they had to get up to at least 40% of the voters to show up.
The Maisanta software not used since the recall vote was revived,
updated and distributed, this time with a password so that it could not
be distributed as freely as the previous version.

—
After the opposition pulled out, every single centralized and
decentralized Government organization and institution was ordered to
have their workers told to go and vote under the very clear threat of
losing their jobs. This was even explicitly said by a Chavista Deputy before the polls closed.

Depending on the institution the threats and pressures took a variety of forms:

1)
Some institutions were very direct. Each Department head was ordered to
hold meetings where workers were asked to vote and, in some cases, told
explicitly to vote for Chavez’ MVR. This happened a lot at institutions
run by former military.

2)
In other institutions, people were told to go and vote via e-mail or
phone in very direct fashion, they were not told how to vote.

3)
The smarter and less radical (and principled?) bosses, like those in
the Ministry of Foreign Relations, simply called or met with workers to
comply with the orders from above, but simply told them that they had
to be careful because they did not know what the Government may or not
do to those that did not go and vote.

Now, just in case you don’t get the magnitude of this, there are 2.05 million Government workers in Venezuela,
not counting Government companies and foundations. Most of this workers
are minimum salary workers who depend on the Government for their
survival under what is locally called having an “arepa muzzle”

Keep in mind that less than 3.5 million people actually went to vote yesterday and that most of these public workers had to go and vote. Subtract 2 million from 3.5 million and you get the picture.

—Sumate
says that their polls show that only 17.7% of the people actually voted
and that remarkably, 30% of the “voters” yesterday cast their vote
after 4 PM, when polls were kept open illegally despite the
facts that there were no visible lines anywhere as the international
observes clearly saw and are likely to report tomorrow.

—Somewhere between 10 and 15% of the votes cast were void.

—And what will the observers say tomorrow?

What
this says is that most Venezuelans decided like in the Beatles song “to
count themselves out” of a process that has done little for them for
the last seven years. That they are fed up with this destructive
revolution. Subtract only half of each of these amounts as being true
and you get maybe some 12-13% of “true” voters, or less than 2 million voters, the
hardcore vote that showed to cast their vote for Chavez and his
revolution

For
Chavismo the message was clear: The popularity of the Government is
sharply down and if something is not done in the next 363 days, anyone
grabbing the imagination of only 25% of the population, may easily
defeat Chavez in the Presidential election. And the Chavistas are worried not only
about the opposition, but also about the enemy within, whether his name is Jose or Diosdado.

And you call this a victory? Well…

“You better free your mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao
You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don’t you know know it’s gonna be alright”

Can the pictures above generate almost half as many voters as this (from recall vote)?