Yes, I have been away, I went as far as Tasmania, where the Devil had the chance to meet the Devil (above) a gentle creature compared to Venezuelan politicians, all of which seemed to go away for Semana Santa (on both sides of the equation) And as Venezuela deteriorates, the stories are either static on important issues or making you wonder what the hell politicians are thinking.
One of the few things to change was the price of oil, which bounced back over 50% from its bottom. Yes, it is only at US$39 for WTI as I write this, but that is an extra US$ 10 billion than what it was at the bottom in February, which certainly works in the Government’s favor. It also works against those that think that the strategy is to wait out the deterioration, rather than take the initiative, a strategy that seems to be the main one, as the National Assembly will be in session again tomorrow and the only topic for discussion will be “the Pope’s exhortation for dialogue and peace in Venezuela”.
And speaking of deterioration, the level at the Guri dam is 245 meters plus a few centimeters, as the Government admits that giving the whole country a week’s vacation during Easter, did not provide the benefits expected, something that could have been predicted by anyone with a little knowledge of the matter. People went home, turned on the air conditioners and TV full blast, using almost as much electricity as if they had been going to work. Much like so many other things that did not have the expected effect in the last 17 years, but Chavismo insists in running the country by the seat of their pants.
Meanwhile, there was a serious report today from Merril Lynch that the National Assembly would propose a Bill that contemplates, among other things, to recognize the debt the Government has with the private sector issuing US$ 23.6 billion in new Sovereign bonds, which would represent an increase by 75% of the country’s debt. Why this would be (could be?) a priority in the midst of the current crisis is beyond me, as such an act would have to be included in an overall economic plan/adjustment, but seems kamikaze-like as an isolated measure given the shortage of foreign currency in 2016. Bonds need to be paid, something the AN seems to not be considering in this proposal.
Meanwhile pro-Chavismo General Rodriguez Torres comes out and publicly backs a Constitutional Amendment to shorten the Presidential period and limit the Presidential term, the first openly Chavista leader to back such a proposal. He also supported the possibility of a recall referendum, calling it part of the Constitution that Chavismo proposed and saying that if the opposition gathers the required signatures, Chavismo should not fear it.
Maybe the opposition should just convince many Chavistas to come out in favor of this position, rather than act in such a timid manner so far in proposing new laws that confront the Executive and Legislative branches.
So, not much happened in Venezuela in the last few weeks. It did not rain, as the Government seemed to be resigned to the possibility of shutting down Guri if necessary. Meanwhile the opposition appears to be banking on the strategy that “God’s time is perfect” and somehow the economic/electric/political crisis will be Maduro’s demise. But somehow, I get the feeling that Chavismo only cares about its own survival and if it can reach January 10th. 2017 in power, it will get rid of Maduro and complete his Presidential term.
Which makes the Devil above a gentle creature, compared to the usually devilish plans of Chavismo.