The Devil's Excrement

Given the ability of the Chavistas to lie, ignore and bypass the law and abuse their hold on public institutions, it is quite difficult to predict what lies ahead for the recall referendum. I really don’t want to get too excited and believe that because of today’s decision the recall vote will actually take place. But I will not minimize the huge impact of the decision in favor of the opposition.

First of all, the decision is clear cut, the details do not depend or not in understanding Venezuelan law, as was the case of whether the signatures were valid or not because of the same calligraphy. The headline for the Associated Press says it best: “Venezuela Court OKs recall signatures” For anyone in any country where the law is respected, having the Supreme Court say something like that has an element of finality that will be difficult to reverse. Try to imagine if in a few days the headline says “Venezuelan Supreme Court reverses on signatures”. Supreme Courts just don’t do that, so if it happens it will make the Government look bad in front of the court of international opinion which is already quite suspicious of Chavez’ Democratic spirit.

A second victory for the opposition is that the path via the Supreme Court to have today’s decision reversed is in itself very tricky. It seems quite difficult to convince anyone that the Electoral Hall does not have to jurisdiction on Electoral matters, no? The opposition should actually concentrate its message on this point, particularly at the international level.

But going even further, the possibility that the case will end up in front of the full Court creates many problems for Chavez and his allies. A loss in that Court will be absolutely final and irreversible. Even worse, they know that at best they can only get a 10-10 vote which would ratify today’s decision by the Electoral Hall. In fact, this in itself might cause other Justices to vote against the Government feeling that the end might be near and by favoring the opposition, they can go from being scapegoats to heroes, much like Justice Martini has transformed himself in the last twelve hours.

In fact, this might be one of the most powerful effects of the decision. If people in Government and influential positions begin to be concerned that the recall may take place and Chavez will lose, they may begin jumping sides (“saltando la talanquera’ in Spanish) before it is too late. This is how autocratic Governments begin to crumble.

Justice Martini is a very good case in point. Let us not forget that it was Justice Martini himself who wrote the majority opinion that stopped the Consultative referendum proposed by the opposition with his decision on January 23d. 2003. That day, he was the villain, today he is all of a sudden the hero. He will be forever remembered for his courageous stand today, not only in his legal decision but in his accusations against the members of the Constitutional Hall who clearly. His other decision will be forgotten.

The Chavez administration has played the borderline legal issues very successfully in the last five years. By appealing to Courts or complicated issues, it has been able to roll over the institutions; controlling them and making it all appear as if it was all quite legal and democratic. His luck may have run out with this decision, which is probably the reason why the Constitutional Hall attempted to block the path of the Electoral Hall last week with its fraudulent gambit. It was a last ditch effort to stop what could become a very damaging decision for the Government and Chavez’ future.

From a numerical point of view, today’s decision guarantees that a recall would take place. The Electoral Hall added 876.017 valid signatures to the 1.832.493 already validate by the Electoral Board, giving a total of 2.708.518 valid signatures. The opposition needs 2.432 million to activate the recall vote. Additionally, the Court also ordered the CNE to add to those signatures that can be validated those contained in 39,060 forms invalidate by technicalities. Since each form had on average 8.5 signatures, this adds some 332.000 signatures which may be added to the total. Thus, it is virtually impossible for the Chavistas to manage to void sufficient signatures in the ratification process to stop the recall vote.

This does not mean that the road ahead is clear; it simply means that the opposition has won where it counts, on legal and Democratic grounds, without tricks. In contrast, Chavez has lost despite the many tricks and only a new set of very dirty tricks ahead will be able to change the path to the recall referendum. These tricks are coming, they are probably being plotted as I write this, but in the end, whatever is being planned will make the opposition look much better and Chavez and his cronies much worse. And that, my friends, is a big victory in itself.

Given the ability of the Chavistas to lie, ignore and bypass the law and abuse their hold on public institutions, it is quite difficult to predict what lies ahead for the recall referendum. I really don’t want to get too excited and believe that because of today’s decision the recall vote will actually take place. But I will not minimize the huge impact of the decision in favor of the opposition.

First of all, the decision is clear cut, the details do not depend or not in understanding Venezuelan law, as was the case of whether the signatures were valid or not because of the same calligraphy. The headline for the Associated Press says it best: “Venezuela Court OKs recall signatures” For anyone in any country where the law is respected, having the Supreme Court say something like that has an element of finality that will be difficult to reverse. Try to imagine if in a few days the headline says “Venezuelan Supreme Court reverses on signatures”. Supreme Courts just don’t do that, so if it happens it will make the Government look bad in front of the court of international opinion which is already quite suspicious of Chavez’ Democratic spirit.

A second victory for the opposition is that the path via the Supreme Court to have today’s decision reversed is in itself very tricky. It seems quite difficult to convince anyone that the Electoral Hall does not have to jurisdiction on Electoral matters, no? The opposition should actually concentrate its message on this point, particularly at the international level.

But going even further, the possibility that the case will end up in front of the full Court creates many problems for Chavez and his allies. A loss in that Court will be absolutely final and irreversible. Even worse, they know that at best they can only get a 10-10 vote which would ratify today’s decision by the Electoral Hall. In fact, this in itself might cause other Justices to vote against the Government feeling that the end might be near and by favoring the opposition, they can go from being scapegoats to heroes, much like Justice Martini has transformed himself in the last twelve hours.

In fact, this might be one of the most powerful effects of the decision. If people in Government and influential positions begin to be concerned that the recall may take place and Chavez will lose, they may begin jumping sides (“saltando la talanquera’ in Spanish) before it is too late. This is how autocratic Governments begin to crumble.

Justice Martini is a very good case in point. Let us not forget that it was Justice Martini himself who wrote the majority opinion that stopped the Consultative referendum proposed by the opposition with his decision on January 23d. 2003. That day, he was the villain, today he is all of a sudden the hero. He will be forever remembered for his courageous stand today, not only in his legal decision but in his accusations against the members of the Constitutional Hall who clearly. His other decision will be forgotten.

The Chavez administration has played the borderline legal issues very successfully in the last five years. By appealing to Courts or complicated issues, it has been able to roll over the institutions; controlling them and making it all appear as if it was all quite legal and democratic. His luck may have run out with this decision, which is probably the reason why the Constitutional Hall attempted to block the path of the Electoral Hall last week with its fraudulent gambit. It was a last ditch effort to stop what could become a very damaging decision for the Government and Chavez’ future.

From a numerical point of view, today’s decision guarantees that a recall would take place. The Electoral Hall added 876.017 valid signatures to the 1.832.493 already validate by the Electoral Board, giving a total of 2.708.518 valid signatures. The opposition needs 2.432 million to activate the recall vote. Additionally, the Court also ordered the CNE to add to those signatures that can be validated those contained in 39,060 forms invalidate by technicalities. Since each form had on average 8.5 signatures, this adds some 332.000 signatures which may be added to the total. Thus, it is virtually impossible for the Chavistas to manage to void sufficient signatures in the ratification process to stop the recall vote.

This does not mean that the road ahead is clear; it simply means that the opposition has won where it counts, on legal and Democratic grounds, without tricks. In contrast, Chavez has lost despite the many tricks and only a new set of very dirty tricks ahead will be able to change the path to the recall referendum. These tricks are coming, they are probably being plotted as I write this, but in the end, whatever is being planned will make the opposition look much better and Chavez and his cronies much worse. And that, my friends, is a big victory in itself.

Yesterday in his Sunday program Hugo Chávez demanded from the opposition the names of those that have disappeared. Well, I am sure he does not read my blog, but just in case anyone near him does, or anyone has access to him, or you work fo a foreign Government that can send him a message, here is my direct message to him as a member of the opposition:

The names and ages of the desaparecidos are:

Omar Arturo Morales (28); Juan José Pérez (27); Juan Ernesto Sánchez (37); Andrés Bastidas Guedes (32) ; José Luis Rodríguez (33); Eduardo José Miranda (30) y Julio César Gómez (34)

Remember the picture of the lady on the left? Well, Pedro sent in the picture on the right that shows how she violently attacked  the National Guard during the Feb. 27th. demonstration. Note the menacing flag on her left hand and the hanky on her right hand to protect herself from the tear gas all around her. With people like her on my side, how can I get negative?

The Electoral Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled today that the more than 800 thousand signatures placed under observation by the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) were valid and thus the opposition has 2.7 million valid signatures to request the recall referendum against Hugo Chavez. Moreover, the Hall also ruled that the more than 39 thousand forms (each with up to ten signatures) which were disqualified due to technical problems in the cover sheets had to be admitted for the ratification process guaranteed by law. The Hall orders the CNE to hold the ratification process in which those whose signatures are invalid can ratify that they did sign or citizens whose signatures are valid but did not sign, can go say that they did not participate.

Let me first explain a little how the Venezuelan Supreme Court works. The Court in Venezuela is divided in Halls by subjects (Art. 262) and there is the full Court which encompasses all Justices in the Halls. Each Hall has equal level within the Court and no Hall can overstep its boundaries. If there is a conflict between Halls is had to be decided by the full Court.

Decisions by the Halls are taken by a majority of the Hall. Meetings of the Halls are called ahead of time and if there is quorum, the decisions are valid. Each Hall has a different number of members, the Electoral hall has three members and the Constitutional hall has five members. Obviously, the Electoral Hall decides on Electoral matters.

Last Thursday, the Constitutional Hall decided that the Electoral Hall could not decide on the case, because it was itself considering the case. However, that decision was issued without there being a quorum present, thus it had no validity. And this was the point in which Justice Martini, the President of the Electoral Hall, began the announcement of the decision by the Electoral Hall. First, he showed an affidavit signed by two of the five Justices of the Constitutional Hall in which they said that the meeting to consider the case was never called and they were not invited and that they did not participate in such a meeting. Thus, the order by the Constitutional Hall to abstain from ruling in the case was not legal.

The President of the Electoral Hall was very harsh with the members of the Constitutional Hall, asking them if they pretended with this fraud to the law to violate legal order by asking the Electoral Hall to abstain without there being a decision by the Hall. The decision by the Hall basically says that the decision by the CNE is illegal since it was made after the regulations were issued and says excluding the others is also in violation of the regulations and the Constitutional rights of those that signed the petition.

What next? Well, two parties that back Chavez have said they will ask for an injunction from the constitutional Hall. There is no Jurisprudence for a decision by the Supreme Court to be reviewed or for an injunction to be granted on such a decision. Even if the Constitution Hall decided on such an injunction or reviewed the case, the Electoral Hall could say there is a conflict between the two Halls and only the full Court could decide on the issue. Reportedly, the full Court would not rule against the Electoral hall and may actually in its favor. In both cases, the decision would stand.

The President of the Constitutional Hall ratified today that their decision last Thursday was legal, that he had call for a meeting at 2:30 PM in which all four Justices required by law attended and three of them voted in favor. However, the media says that at that time, the President of the Court was meeting with the Cabinet’s lawyer. Moreover, the letter itself may represent fraud as it says that the decision was ready and the fourth Justice had not read the decision. Thus, Ivan Rincon (A second Rincon who is a big liar) confesses in his hastily written letter that he did not follow procedure. (It also shows he is not very competent as a lawyer)

From a practical point of view, the CNE has to begin organizing the ratification procedure and abide by the decision by the Electoral Hall. The Hall not only validated the signatures, but it told it to have 2700 centers and have five days for the process. After this, if not enough signatures are invalidated by the people themselves, they will have to hold the recall referendum against President Chavez.

Thus, a new complexity is introduced into an already tense and confusing situation. To me, the whole thing is absolutely bizarre. When Justices of the Supreme Court accuse each other of unethical acts. When Justices accuse each other of lying. When Justices decide simply based on partisan politics, I can’t help but be very negative on the future of this country. From a legal point of view, it was very clear to me that all the Halls of the Supreme Court had to rule the way the Electoral Hall did today. You can’t change the laws and regulations at your convenience. But today, it seems as if the Justices of the Constitutional Hall may now be ready to do it again. If they do it, can we appeal it to anyone?

(Isaias Rodriguez, the Attorney  General who is always slow and quiet in major issues such as repression has already criticized the decision by the Electoral Hall, can the People’s Ombudsman be far behind, since he never defends the people?)

The Electoral Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled today that the more than 800 thousand signatures placed under observation by the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) were valid and thus the opposition has 2.7 million valid signatures to request the recall referendum against Hugo Chavez. Moreover, the Hall also ruled that the more than 39 thousand forms (each with up to ten signatures) which were disqualified due to technical problems in the cover sheets had to be admitted for the ratification process guaranteed by law. The Hall orders the CNE to hold the ratification process in which those whose signatures are invalid can ratify that they did sign or citizens whose signatures are valid but did not sign, can go say that they did not participate.

Let me first explain a little how the Venezuelan Supreme Court works. The Court in Venezuela is divided in Halls by subjects (Art. 262) and there is the full Court which encompasses all Justices in the Halls. Each Hall has equal level within the Court and no Hall can overstep its boundaries. If there is a conflict between Halls is had to be decided by the full Court.

Decisions by the Halls are taken by a majority of the Hall. Meetings of the Halls are called ahead of time and if there is quorum, the decisions are valid. Each Hall has a different number of members, the Electoral hall has three members and the Constitutional hall has five members. Obviously, the Electoral Hall decides on Electoral matters.

Last Thursday, the Constitutional Hall decided that the Electoral Hall could not decide on the case, because it was itself considering the case. However, that decision was issued without there being a quorum present, thus it had no validity. And this was the point in which Justice Martini, the President of the Electoral Hall, began the announcement of the decision by the Electoral Hall. First, he showed an affidavit signed by two of the five Justices of the Constitutional Hall in which they said that the meeting to consider the case was never called and they were not invited and that they did not participate in such a meeting. Thus, the order by the Constitutional Hall to abstain from ruling in the case was not legal.

The President of the Electoral Hall was very harsh with the members of the Constitutional Hall, asking them if they pretended with this fraud to the law to violate legal order by asking the Electoral Hall to abstain without there being a decision by the Hall. The decision by the Hall basically says that the decision by the CNE is illegal since it was made after the regulations were issued and says excluding the others is also in violation of the regulations and the Constitutional rights of those that signed the petition.

What next? Well, two parties that back Chavez have said they will ask for an injunction from the constitutional Hall. There is no Jurisprudence for a decision by the Supreme Court to be reviewed or for an injunction to be granted on such a decision. Even if the Constitution Hall decided on such an injunction or reviewed the case, the Electoral Hall could say there is a conflict between the two Halls and only the full Court could decide on the issue. Reportedly, the full Court would not rule against the Electoral hall and may actually in its favor. In both cases, the decision would stand.

The President of the Constitutional Hall ratified today that their decision last Thursday was legal, that he had call for a meeting at 2:30 PM in which all four Justices required by law attended and three of them voted in favor. However, the media says that at that time, the President of the Court was meeting with the Cabinet’s lawyer. Moreover, the letter itself may represent fraud as it says that the decision was ready and the fourth Justice had not read the decision. Thus, Ivan Rincon (A second Rincon who is a big liar) confesses in his hastily written letter that he did not follow procedure. (It also shows he is not very competent as a lawyer)

From a practical point of view, the CNE has to begin organizing the ratification procedure and abide by the decision by the Electoral Hall. The Hall not only validated the signatures, but it told it to have 2700 centers and have five days for the process. After this, if not enough signatures are invalidated by the people themselves, they will have to hold the recall referendum against President Chavez.

Thus, a new complexity is introduced into an already tense and confusing situation. To me, the whole thing is absolutely bizarre. When Justices of the Supreme Court accuse each other of unethical acts. When Justices accuse each other of lying. When Justices decide simply based on partisan politics, I can’t help but be very negative on the future of this country. From a legal point of view, it was very clear to me that all the Halls of the Supreme Court had to rule the way the Electoral Hall did today. You can’t change the laws and regulations at your convenience. But today, it seems as if the Justices of the Constitutional Hall may now be ready to do it again. If they do it, can we appeal it to anyone?

(Isaias Rodriguez, the Attorney  General who is always slow and quiet in major issues such as repression has already criticized the decision by the Electoral Hall, can the People’s Ombudsman be far behind, since he never defends the people?)

After taking it easy yesterday and relaxing for the first time in quite a while, reading today’s newspapers brought me back to the reality of what is going on in Venezuela. Not a pretty picture.

In the order I read it, here are some highlights of what I read about today that bothered me:

-Venezuelan representatives made a presentation at the Sociedad Interamericana de Prensa(SIP) showing a video of Feb. 27^th. The honorary President of SIP said: “It is eloquent what is happening in Venezuela. Chavez is our own Idi Amin, half clown and dangerously cruel. ..It is a farce to say that what we just saw is a country which is part of the OAS Democratic charter”.  Meanwhile, Miguel Henrique Otero said that Chavez had claimed that National guardsmen were injured but the Government has not been able to give one name of a guard that suffered injuries. (El Nacional page A-2 and also in El Universal)

-Luis Garcia Mora in el Nacional: “This is a rip off that the OAS and the Carter Center are backing somehow. A fraud. What did they come for? Don’t they know what is going on within the honorable and transparent Consejo Nacional electoral (CNE)? What are they negotiating? How do you maintain this CNE for the regional and local elections?

-Carlos Melo in an interview in el Nacional (A-4): What morals can the Minister of Information Jesse Chacon speak with? Who have I killed? Nobody. He knows it well. The same way that everyone knows he is a notorious criminal who during the 1992 coup assassinated workers of the Government’s TV channel VTV…The problem is not whether the El rodeo jail is good or bad or is adequate or not for a political prisoner. All Venezuelan jails are hell.

-Jose Manuel Vivancos of Human Rights watch, organization which I was highly critical of in 2002 for its defense of Hugo Chavez (El Nacional A-15): ‘there is unquestionable evidence of human rights violations…there are acts of vandalism by the opposition like the destruction of public property to build barricades. ..There are testimonies and unquestionable evidence of tortures, bad treatment, abuses, hitting people. There are 9 deaths that can be attributed directly to agents of the government. there have been tortures with electricity, burning people, cruel and inhuman treatment of those detained….the problem is the Attorney General’s office opens investigations and never reaches a conclusion, with this you crown impunity…Venezuela’s attempt to recuse the Secretary general of the Human rights Commission of the OAS, ahs no legal bases and reflects a profound ignorance…with it the Venezuelan Government loses and isolates itself as a pariah.

-PDVSA has problems closing its books for 2003 (El Nacional A-20). The company will not be able to file on time and its executives may have lid in last year’s financials, they could be subject to prosecution under the Oxley Act.

-Former Venezuelan Ambassador to the UN Milos Alcalay: “the Government is each day more authoritarian…If the Government had recognized the excesses made and explained why the pro-Government demonstrators had the support of the National Guard to demonstrate in front of the Hotel, then this would have not transcended. The Secretary of state without reading my file said they would open an administrative process against me, similarly he said they would deny me my pension, my only recourse is the law, but given the institutional crisis …there are serious concerns over the future of justice in Venezuela…

-Offensive against the OAS: Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello:” It would appear as is if the only objective of the international observers is the recall referendum”. Hector Navarro, Minister of Higher Education: “The OAS is one more Ministry of the US.”

After taking it easy yesterday and relaxing for the first time in quite a while, reading today’s newspapers brought me back to the reality of what is going on in Venezuela. Not a pretty picture.

In the order I read it, here are some highlights of what I read about today that bothered me:

-Venezuelan representatives made a presentation at the Sociedad Interamericana de Prensa(SIP) showing a video of Feb. 27^th. The honorary President of SIP said: “It is eloquent what is happening in Venezuela. Chavez is our own Idi Amin, half clown and dangerously cruel. ..It is a farce to say that what we just saw is a country which is part of the OAS Democratic charter”.  Meanwhile, Miguel Henrique Otero said that Chavez had claimed that National guardsmen were injured but the Government has not been able to give one name of a guard that suffered injuries. (El Nacional page A-2 and also in El Universal)

-Luis Garcia Mora in el Nacional: “This is a rip off that the OAS and the Carter Center are backing somehow. A fraud. What did they come for? Don’t they know what is going on within the honorable and transparent Consejo Nacional electoral (CNE)? What are they negotiating? How do you maintain this CNE for the regional and local elections?

-Carlos Melo in an interview in el Nacional (A-4): What morals can the Minister of Information Jesse Chacon speak with? Who have I killed? Nobody. He knows it well. The same way that everyone knows he is a notorious criminal who during the 1992 coup assassinated workers of the Government’s TV channel VTV…The problem is not whether the El rodeo jail is good or bad or is adequate or not for a political prisoner. All Venezuelan jails are hell.

-Jose Manuel Vivancos of Human Rights watch, organization which I was highly critical of in 2002 for its defense of Hugo Chavez (El Nacional A-15): ‘there is unquestionable evidence of human rights violations…there are acts of vandalism by the opposition like the destruction of public property to build barricades. ..There are testimonies and unquestionable evidence of tortures, bad treatment, abuses, hitting people. There are 9 deaths that can be attributed directly to agents of the government. there have been tortures with electricity, burning people, cruel and inhuman treatment of those detained….the problem is the Attorney General’s office opens investigations and never reaches a conclusion, with this you crown impunity…Venezuela’s attempt to recuse the Secretary general of the Human rights Commission of the OAS, ahs no legal bases and reflects a profound ignorance…with it the Venezuelan Government loses and isolates itself as a pariah.

-PDVSA has problems closing its books for 2003 (El Nacional A-20). The company will not be able to file on time and its executives may have lid in last year’s financials, they could be subject to prosecution under the Oxley Act.

-Former Venezuelan Ambassador to the UN Milos Alcalay: “the Government is each day more authoritarian…If the Government had recognized the excesses made and explained why the pro-Government demonstrators had the support of the National Guard to demonstrate in front of the Hotel, then this would have not transcended. The Secretary of state without reading my file said they would open an administrative process against me, similarly he said they would deny me my pension, my only recourse is the law, but given the institutional crisis …there are serious concerns over the future of justice in Venezuela…

-Offensive against the OAS: Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello:” It would appear as is if the only objective of the international observers is the recall referendum”. Hector Navarro, Minister of Higher Education: “The OAS is one more Ministry of the US.”