The Devil's Excrement

Confrontations are still taking place in many places, they are very intense, but fewerr of them around the city. Caurimare seems to be where the toughest battle is going on. I don’t not quite understand why the Government is being so repressive. Many people have been jailed, opposition leader Carlos Melo is accused of having a cache of weapons when he was captured at a gas station, unfortunately, the video cameras at the gas station showed that he had no weapons when he was taken away. Two judges are removed for releasing some of those jailed, in clear a sign that the repression is both military and political.  Not as many news as last night. TV stations are being cautious.

Sometimes it is difficult when emotions are involved to understand the true significance of events. It is easy to look back at history and interpret, it is more difficult to live it and understand. While the opposition did suffer a partial defeat in its efforts to hold a recall referendum against Hugo Chavez, the statement by the OAS and the Carter Center, basically saying that the signatures were there, will have an extremely significant impact in the future of Venezuela.

It is unusual for diplomats such as Francisco Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy to be as undiplomatic as they were today. More so, when they plan to stay in the country mediating an already complex and potentially explosive situation.

After the unequivocal statement by these two institutions with a vast experience on electoral matters, the Venezuelan Government will have difficulties accusing the opposition of fraud or attempting to overthrow it. The OAS and the Carter Center said that the people of Venezuela did indeed gather the required signatures, because the process was tightly controlled, witnesses, observed and certified by all parties that participated in it.

The statement sends a very important and direct message to the international community as well as to the Chavez administration. One should remember that both the OAS and the Carter Center came to Venezuela invited by Chavez himself and not by the opposition, but today their message was one of absolute solidarity with the opposition’s position.

Nothing is improvised in diplomacy. Jaramillo and McCoy could have made the same statement from Washington, out of the fray of the conflict or the proximity of the Chavez Government. But their move is likely to be just one of a complex game of negotiation that is likely to be taking place as I write these words.

When one puts side by side the statements by the Diplomats and the opposition leaders, it is clear that something was left unsaid. That a negotiation is taking place or was left unfinished. That for some reason Carrasquero is not a central figure in the process. That various Governments are applying significant amounts of pressure to the Chávez administration and that our Secretary Sate will have a tough and busy day tomorrow. As Lula sides with Bush on Haiti and departed Caracas earlier than expected last week, Chavez is more isolated than he ever thought he would be.

If the mechanism for ratifying the signatures is improved and polished, it will be harder for the pro-Chavez forces to introduce new tricks in the process and the door will be open for Chavez’ recall. At this point, Chavez may choose the non-democratic path, but that will certainly lead to even an earlier departure of Hugo Chávez from the Venezuelan political scene.

Sometimes it is difficult when emotions are involved to understand the true significance of events. It is easy to look back at history and interpret, it is more difficult to live it and understand. While the opposition did suffer a partial defeat in its efforts to hold a recall referendum against Hugo Chavez, the statement by the OAS and the Carter Center, basically saying that the signatures were there, will have an extremely significant impact in the future of Venezuela.

It is unusual for diplomats such as Francisco Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy to be as undiplomatic as they were today. More so, when they plan to stay in the country mediating an already complex and potentially explosive situation.

After the unequivocal statement by these two institutions with a vast experience on electoral matters, the Venezuelan Government will have difficulties accusing the opposition of fraud or attempting to overthrow it. The OAS and the Carter Center said that the people of Venezuela did indeed gather the required signatures, because the process was tightly controlled, witnesses, observed and certified by all parties that participated in it.

The statement sends a very important and direct message to the international community as well as to the Chavez administration. One should remember that both the OAS and the Carter Center came to Venezuela invited by Chavez himself and not by the opposition, but today their message was one of absolute solidarity with the opposition’s position.

Nothing is improvised in diplomacy. Jaramillo and McCoy could have made the same statement from Washington, out of the fray of the conflict or the proximity of the Chavez Government. But their move is likely to be just one of a complex game of negotiation that is likely to be taking place as I write these words.

When one puts side by side the statements by the Diplomats and the opposition leaders, it is clear that something was left unsaid. That a negotiation is taking place or was left unfinished. That for some reason Carrasquero is not a central figure in the process. That various Governments are applying significant amounts of pressure to the Chávez administration and that our Secretary Sate will have a tough and busy day tomorrow. As Lula sides with Bush on Haiti and departed Caracas earlier than expected last week, Chavez is more isolated than he ever thought he would be.

If the mechanism for ratifying the signatures is improved and polished, it will be harder for the pro-Chavez forces to introduce new tricks in the process and the door will be open for Chavez’ recall. At this point, Chavez may choose the non-democratic path, but that will certainly lead to even an earlier departure of Hugo Chávez from the Venezuelan political scene.

A law student named David Forestell wrote this post at a Venezuela forum. David is Canadian, studying law in London right now, he lived in Caracas for nine months in 2002 and 2003, teaching English. I thought his post was quite good and asked him for permission to reproduce it here, as the view of an outsider:

If the CNE wishes to find out why forms were filled out with the same
handwriting they should interview their observers that signed the form
to approve the process.

In every society retroactive law is, effectively, not law at all.  That
people were asked by the CNE to follow a certain procedure, and are now
being forced to account for their signatures because they CNE no longer
likes the process they approved is absurd.

The important thing to remember, Javier, is that this is not the actual
vote.  It is an attempt to determine whether there exists sufficient
desire to activate a recall.  Clearly there is.  To suggest that a fraud
so massive that for every two signatures the third was a fraud is
absurd.  How was this pulled off?  How did no one notice?  How can the
OAS, CNE, Carter Centre, MVR observers and VTV all have been so blind?

Does this continual delay seem credible to anyone, including chavistas?

To me it seems as though the only possible way in which someone could
continue to defend the government would be to turn a blind eye and
accept any abuse in the name of cheating because the means must justify
the ends.  Whatever they may be.

dtf

There is violence going on, this time it seems the Government wants to provoke it. There are fewer people than last night in both Altaira and Caurimare, but things are much more violent. The Governor of Carabobo state just came on TV and said that a protest in the Naguanagua section of Valencia is being repressed by the joint action of the military, the National Guard, the political police DISIP and the pro-Chavez civilian Bolivarian Circles.

Separately, lots of people continue to be jailed although a judge freed a bunch here in Caracas. Seems like now the Government wants the conflict, but the people are staying home more today trying to digest the news.

I like numbers, so let’s look at the ones announced by Carrasquero and analyze them. Sumate says they handed in 3,467,050, but right off the bat the CNE says only 3,060,013 were “accepted” so that 407,037 were rejected even before the process began based not on the signatures, not on the data, but on the fact that the cover sheet did not agree with the totals. These people can not go and complain, their signatures are disqualified. There were 39,060 forms which had this problem.

Of the 3,060,013 admitted by the CNE 1,832,433 were admitted as valid. Of these 143,930 were rejected because their data did not agree with the Electoral Registry. These people have no recourse, even if the error is in the registry which is known to have many errors in birthdates. This leaves 1,227,580 signatures set aside. Of these, 876,017 were declared under observation which means people have to go and say they did sign, and another 233,573 have “other reasons”. Only these 233,573 plus the 876,017 can be ratified giving a total of 1,109,590. Thus, the opposition needs 54.4% of those that signed but their signature was placed under observation to show up and ratify that they did sign.

This is not insurmountable. Besides being unfair and not part of the rules, the other limitations are that the old and the sick will not be able to participate as there will not be itinerant signature collectors this time around.

In terms of collection centers, there will the same 2,700 centers to collect 1,1019,590 signatures which if everyone shows up implies that 205 signatures have to be collected per day in two days, per center or 25 per hour. This is also doable, except one PC per Center seems a little stingy. I don’t quite understand either how come they can talk about only two days to present the complaint as the regulations explicitly say in Article 31 that you will have five days to do it.

Finally, the CNE says that it will publish a “booklet” with the National ID number of each person that participated and the status of their signature. Have they thought about this? I just took the Caracas phone book. It has 975 numbers per column, 5 columns per page. A newspaper page is twice as tall, 50% wider and if you only print ID numbers and status you might be able to squeeze in ten columns. This yields 1772 pages, almost twice the thickness of the current Caracas phonebook! In the interest of fairness they need to make 7,000,000 copies. How much does this cost? 

Opposition says that they do not agree with the process for confirmation or ratification process and that they ask the OAS and the Carter Center to work with the CNE to establish fair rules to the process which follow the law and put faith on the people’s vote. They say Carter’s advice of giving the voter the benefit of the doubt to the voter should be implemented. This implies that those that think they should not be there are the ones that should go to the CNE to say they did not participate.

Opposition also says how come they handed in over 200,000 more signatures than the CNE says they received. Where are they?

Thus, the official position is let’s change the way it was done and have the OAS and the Carter Center negotiate it. Julio Borges said the signatures are non-negotiable and if the methodology is not changed, the opposition will not tell the people to go an ratify their signatures.

Carter Center and the OAS said that they had participated in the process and check if it was transparent and followed the norms. They said the process had sufficient controls and checks, witnesses and observers. They disagree with the criteria of not including those forms which have the same handwriting but not the same signature. They said that they saw that in the signing process when the signatures were being collected, people at the poll booths aided those signing, filling the data and that they believed the CNE should have given the benefit of the doubt to the people.

Usually, the OAS and the Carter Center are fairly diplomatic, this is very strong  criticism of the CNE and the process by two institutions that participated and observed the process and are both saying that the signatures are there and the CNE was not transparent. If you add the forms with the same handwriting the total exceeds the signatures needed by three hundred thousand. I would like anyone to defend this as being a “fair” process.

Carter Center and the OAS said that they had participated in the process and check if it was transparent and followed the norms. They said the process had sufficient controls and checks, witnesses and observers. They disagree with the criteria of not including those forms which have the same handwriting but not the same signature. They said that they saw that in the signing process when the signatures were being collected, people at the poll booths aided those signing, filling the data and that they believed the CNE should have given the benefit of the doubt to the people.

Usually, the OAS and the Carter Center are fairly diplomatic, this is very strong  criticism of the CNE and the process by two institutions that participated and observed the process and are both saying that the signatures are there and the CNE was not transparent. If you add the forms with the same handwriting the total exceeds the signatures needed by three hundred thousand. I would like anyone to defend this as being a “fair” process.