The Devil's Excrement

This is what the Minsiter of Justice must have been referring to about peopel insulting the National Guardsmen. From top to bottom, left to right: 1) Dangerous lady armed with venezuelan flag approaches the National Guardsmen to ask why she has no right to circulate freely. Female Guardswoman, hits her with baton, except lady grabs it and takes it from her falling to the ground. 2) As she gets up they hit her and 3) Push her. By now there are more Guards around and she is thrown to the ground in 4). Even as she is on teh ground surrounded by seven Guardsmen, she is holding on to the baton 5) As the Guardsmen realize the press is taping the whole thing they surround the lady to block the view in 6). Lady was hit repeteadly on her back.

All I can say is lady, you have all my respect and I am glad you are on my side! To the guards: Shame on you!

I naively left home this morning with a simple plan: Go to work, stay until the middle of the march went by my building, come back finish what I had to do, go home. I had my two weapons :my camera and my cell phone. No need to take my tear gas mask. Not only has it been quite a while since I have needed, but it would seem such a bad moment to use force against us.

Not only is the G-15 (really G-6 today, G-3 by tomorrow), but the world is watching how Chavez handles the petition for the recall referendum. These naïve thoughts crossed my mind despite having seen the pictures of the military deployment surrounding the theater where the G-15 meeting is taking place. Thanks to William for telling us in the comments that a good set of pictures of the Government’s preparations are here. This is what I saw yesterday but really, I was not intimidated, or thought much would happen today.

As I work in the morning I keep watch on the events. The March itself I don’t have to pay attention to. The march goes right by my building so I will know exactly when to join it. The theater where the G-15 meeting is taking place is surrounded by the military, these are not just soldiers, and there are tanks, small vehicles and guns all over the place on all sides. I guess Mogabe must have lots of enemies.

As usual, the opposition can not get even close to the theater where it wants to hand in a letter to those attending about the steps taken by the Chavez Government to stop their Constitutional rights to a referendum on the President’s matter. Not even a delegation is allowed to get close to it. Thus, I am surprised when pro-Chavez groups are not only allowed to get close to the theater, but are actually surrounding it in such a way that you see lots of green military uniforms and lots of red t-shirts of Chavez supporters.

Amazingly, that pitiful character German Mundarain, the People’s Ombudsman (PO), appears on TV telling us that the Chavistas are allowed to be there because all they want is to salute the foreign visitors, while the opposition wants violence. Not only that, but he appears to define spaces for the two different Venezuelans. We are simply not equal in the eyes of the man supposed to defend our rights. He mentions that the opposition is talking about “rebellion”, leaving me wondering what this guy has in his brains, if anything. This is 10 AM, the march has not started.

After the PO, Teodoro Petkoff comes on. I wished he was saying more than his Editorials, but I have no time to listen, I have to work, later a friend calls from the States while I am at the march and reads me Teodoro’s statements in El Universal;

“The military deployment is a show of political weakness”. “The regimen can not have a confrontation with its own people” “ people are marching, they do not intend to take over the theater” The right to demonstrate is guaranteed by the Constitution”” Only with the military deployment those visiting us have seen that there is a profound crisis and a President with no legitimacy in front of his people”.

And the usually balanced Petkoff adds:

“I think that we have to persist in the protest using all instances and I am sure that we are not in the definite moment of the fight, but that there will be new moments for it”

Heady stuff to hear while you are marching and getting tear gassed, but I am getting ahead of myself.

As I ignore Petkoff, the march goes by my building in Avenida Francisco de Miranda. It is always such a sight to see the men and the women, the young and the old, marching, posters and flags in hands. Today there is a difference though. There is less singing, less chanting. People are like really marching, moving fast with lots of determination. Only the trucks with the sound system drown the noise of the crowd marching and slows it down in the process.

I have barely seen the front of the march go by, when TV stations switch to Mariperez some four-five miles away. There ,a dozen people hang around, you see reporters on the floor taking pictures and suddenly, tear gas canisters are flying around, a person is taken injured on a motorcycle and I am wondering what the Hell is going on. As I see the blood on the person which turned out to be a reporter, I get mad, get up and leave to join the marchers.  

The mood is festive as I join. I see two older people in their wheelchair marching along. Most people carry signs alluding to their signature in the petition. These two are cool:

 (Someone sent the second one). As we got closer to the end, where the military is, things slow down. People are talking about lots of tear gas, so I see a street vendor selling medical masks and I get one for Bs. 2,000 ($1 at the official rate), before the end of the afternoon the price actually doubled.

The adrenaline begins flowing as I get up close. It is different to see the National Guard up close than on TV, they have these vests that make them look like Robocop, which you can see in the post below.

I begin taking pictures. The Guards seem to be staying back as I do, then all of a sudden and without warning, they begin throwing the heaviest barrage of tear gas canisters I have seen in my life. It is very nasty, they are not throwing it to keep us back, and they are throwing it over our heads so that canisters fall in the middle of the crowd. People panic, fall to the ground, some vomit. Everyone helps each other. Then they get up, get some air and go back. At one point I could barely breath.

This is what is different this time around people are really pissed (arrechos in Venezuelan slang) I see men, women, more men than women. But I also see older ladies, there is black, white, mestizo and whatever. Some oligarhs too.  Everyone is crying, people are sharing the Menthol, the Vinegar, taking care of those on the ground. The whole Avenida Libertador is full of people. They go back, rest and come back.

In a while the National Guard strategy becomes fairly simple, they allow us to get ahead, the helicopter goes by, tells them where we are, and they attack. The wind helps them as the gas is blown right towards us. People begin building barricades (see pictures below). At some point (no time for checking my watch) the wind shifts. The Guards throw the canisters but it blows right back to them. We hold our ground for quite a while.

There are all sorts of rumors during the march; Lula has left in disgust, other demonstrations and rallies somewhere else, even some Generals rising against the Government in the West of the country.  Reportedly the CNE may be reconsidering how to fix the problem with the forms with the same calligraphy for the data.

As the battle continues, the wind shifts again. I notice the helicopter go by and the nastiest attack takes place. This time around motorcycles attack us, two guards on each, throwing canisters all over the place. People actually panic, there is no place to run, the gas is nasty, I mean really nasty! Hard to breath, many ladies on the floor. Not much help, everyone is doing badly and the canisters keep coming. The wind shifts and that gives people some real breathing room. Most people do not go back back this time around. The motorcycles introduces something that is dangerous to fight. The hardcore stay until after dark. Most marchers leave.

Afterwards I learn that the strongest attack took place just when all TV stations were forced to transmit Chavez’s speech in front of the G-15. What a coward! Fortunately, the TV stations tape it for everyone to see. An hour and a half later I get back to my office; there is Chavez in an expensive suit, with an expensive watch in the luxury of the theater talking about justice, fairness and the people. I think of Nero playing the harp as Rome burned. He looks just like that. Pathetic. All he has done in the last five years is introduce a Constitution which he has little respect for. Even the use of chemicals is banned in it. (Thanks Alfredo!). And the right to peaceful protest is guaranteed. Check it, it is in there somewhere. (Even though I hate it, it’s the only one we have, so I read it a lot, it’s the law!)

By now, TV stations are showing tapes of the biggest acts of repression. Then the Attorney General goes on TV and says it is all the oppositions fault. He has said nothing about the application of the law by the CNE and our signatures, but he is quick to the gun on this issue. Impunity is the name of the game. The Minsiter of the Interior of Justice, the big Pinocchio of April 2002, says the same thing. Imaine he says. People were actually insulting the Guards. This can’t be!. Insulting people deserved to be gssed. What is the penalty for the lie he told us in April 2002 that Chavez had resigned? At least a lobotomy or lower.  I agree with Gen. Rincon. This can’t be. People should not have to wave flasg at the National Guard, or ask for tehir rights, or even insult them or throw stones.  But it is. And it will continue until we get our rights back.

It was simply another day. Rough, but somehow, I have a sense of accomplishment. We were peaceful. They weren’t. Chavez meant the G-15 meeting to be his showcase. It wasn’t. The military repression surrounded them. Only Mugabe could have been proud of the display of force. Lula and Kirschner have been on the side of the repressed, they could not have been happy. Unfortunately people died or are hurt. So we also lost, one death or injured is one too many. Imagine a simple alternative: A committee of the opposition is allowed to go forward meet with Lula or whomever, hand in the document and we could have all been home by 2 PM. Too easy for the minds of fascists.

I thank Daniel for actually worrying about my whereabouts so much that he posted about it, and for the many that sent e-mails asking if I was OK, including you Mari, so far away in space and time. We are just OK, it was not simply just another day.

I naively left home this morning with a simple plan: Go to work, stay until the middle of the march went by my building, come back finish what I had to do, go home. I had my two weapons :my camera and my cell phone. No need to take my tear gas mask. Not only has it been quite a while since I have needed, but it would seem such a bad moment to use force against us.

Not only is the G-15 (really G-6 today, G-3 by tomorrow), but the world is watching how Chavez handles the petition for the recall referendum. These naïve thoughts crossed my mind despite having seen the pictures of the military deployment surrounding the theater where the G-15 meeting is taking place. Thanks to William for telling us in the comments that a good set of pictures of the Government’s preparations are here. This is what I saw yesterday but really, I was not intimidated, or thought much would happen today.

As I work in the morning I keep watch on the events. The March itself I don’t have to pay attention to. The march goes right by my building so I will know exactly when to join it. The theater where the G-15 meeting is taking place is surrounded by the military, these are not just soldiers, and there are tanks, small vehicles and guns all over the place on all sides. I guess Mogabe must have lots of enemies.

As usual, the opposition can not get even close to the theater where it wants to hand in a letter to those attending about the steps taken by the Chavez Government to stop their Constitutional rights to a referendum on the President’s matter. Not even a delegation is allowed to get close to it. Thus, I am surprised when pro-Chavez groups are not only allowed to get close to the theater, but are actually surrounding it in such a way that you see lots of green military uniforms and lots of red t-shirts of Chavez supporters.

Amazingly, that pitiful character German Mundarain, the People’s Ombudsman (PO), appears on TV telling us that the Chavistas are allowed to be there because all they want is to salute the foreign visitors, while the opposition wants violence. Not only that, but he appears to define spaces for the two different Venezuelans. We are simply not equal in the eyes of the man supposed to defend our rights. He mentions that the opposition is talking about “rebellion”, leaving me wondering what this guy has in his brains, if anything. This is 10 AM, the march has not started.

After the PO, Teodoro Petkoff comes on. I wished he was saying more than his Editorials, but I have no time to listen, I have to work, later a friend calls from the States while I am at the march and reads me Teodoro’s statements in El Universal;

“The military deployment is a show of political weakness”. “The regimen can not have a confrontation with its own people” “ people are marching, they do not intend to take over the theater” The right to demonstrate is guaranteed by the Constitution”” Only with the military deployment those visiting us have seen that there is a profound crisis and a President with no legitimacy in front of his people”.

And the usually balanced Petkoff adds:

“I think that we have to persist in the protest using all instances and I am sure that we are not in the definite moment of the fight, but that there will be new moments for it”

Heady stuff to hear while you are marching and getting tear gassed, but I am getting ahead of myself.

As I ignore Petkoff, the march goes by my building in Avenida Francisco de Miranda. It is always such a sight to see the men and the women, the young and the old, marching, posters and flags in hands. Today there is a difference though. There is less singing, less chanting. People are like really marching, moving fast with lots of determination. Only the trucks with the sound system drown the noise of the crowd marching and slows it down in the process.

I have barely seen the front of the march go by, when TV stations switch to Mariperez some four-five miles away. There ,a dozen people hang around, you see reporters on the floor taking pictures and suddenly, tear gas canisters are flying around, a person is taken injured on a motorcycle and I am wondering what the Hell is going on. As I see the blood on the person which turned out to be a reporter, I get mad, get up and leave to join the marchers.  

The mood is festive as I join. I see two older people in their wheelchair marching along. Most people carry signs alluding to their signature in the petition. These two are cool:

 (Someone sent the second one). As we got closer to the end, where the military is, things slow down. People are talking about lots of tear gas, so I see a street vendor selling medical masks and I get one for Bs. 2,000 ($1 at the official rate), before the end of the afternoon the price actually doubled.

The adrenaline begins flowing as I get up close. It is different to see the National Guard up close than on TV, they have these vests that make them look like Robocop, which you can see in the post below.

I begin taking pictures. The Guards seem to be staying back as I do, then all of a sudden and without warning, they begin throwing the heaviest barrage of tear gas canisters I have seen in my life. It is very nasty, they are not throwing it to keep us back, and they are throwing it over our heads so that canisters fall in the middle of the crowd. People panic, fall to the ground, some vomit. Everyone helps each other. Then they get up, get some air and go back. At one point I could barely breath.

This is what is different this time around people are really pissed (arrechos in Venezuelan slang) I see men, women, more men than women. But I also see older ladies, there is black, white, mestizo and whatever. Some oligarhs too.  Everyone is crying, people are sharing the Menthol, the Vinegar, taking care of those on the ground. The whole Avenida Libertador is full of people. They go back, rest and come back.

In a while the National Guard strategy becomes fairly simple, they allow us to get ahead, the helicopter goes by, tells them where we are, and they attack. The wind helps them as the gas is blown right towards us. People begin building barricades (see pictures below). At some point (no time for checking my watch) the wind shifts. The Guards throw the canisters but it blows right back to them. We hold our ground for quite a while.

There are all sorts of rumors during the march; Lula has left in disgust, other demonstrations and rallies somewhere else, even some Generals rising against the Government in the West of the country.  Reportedly the CNE may be reconsidering how to fix the problem with the forms with the same calligraphy for the data.

As the battle continues, the wind shifts again. I notice the helicopter go by and the nastiest attack takes place. This time around motorcycles attack us, two guards on each, throwing canisters all over the place. People actually panic, there is no place to run, the gas is nasty, I mean really nasty! Hard to breath, many ladies on the floor. Not much help, everyone is doing badly and the canisters keep coming. The wind shifts and that gives people some real breathing room. Most people do not go back back this time around. The motorcycles introduces something that is dangerous to fight. The hardcore stay until after dark. Most marchers leave.

Afterwards I learn that the strongest attack took place just when all TV stations were forced to transmit Chavez’s speech in front of the G-15. What a coward! Fortunately, the TV stations tape it for everyone to see. An hour and a half later I get back to my office; there is Chavez in an expensive suit, with an expensive watch in the luxury of the theater talking about justice, fairness and the people. I think of Nero playing the harp as Rome burned. He looks just like that. Pathetic. All he has done in the last five years is introduce a Constitution which he has little respect for. Even the use of chemicals is banned in it. (Thanks Alfredo!). And the right to peaceful protest is guaranteed. Check it, it is in there somewhere. (Even though I hate it, it’s the only one we have, so I read it a lot, it’s the law!)

By now, TV stations are showing tapes of the biggest acts of repression. Then the Attorney General goes on TV and says it is all the oppositions fault. He has said nothing about the application of the law by the CNE and our signatures, but he is quick to the gun on this issue. Impunity is the name of the game. The Minsiter of the Interior of Justice, the big Pinocchio of April 2002, says the same thing. Imaine he says. People were actually insulting the Guards. This can’t be!. Insulting people deserved to be gssed. What is the penalty for the lie he told us in April 2002 that Chavez had resigned? At least a lobotomy or lower.  I agree with Gen. Rincon. This can’t be. People should not have to wave flasg at the National Guard, or ask for tehir rights, or even insult them or throw stones.  But it is. And it will continue until we get our rights back.

It was simply another day. Rough, but somehow, I have a sense of accomplishment. We were peaceful. They weren’t. Chavez meant the G-15 meeting to be his showcase. It wasn’t. The military repression surrounded them. Only Mugabe could have been proud of the display of force. Lula and Kirschner have been on the side of the repressed, they could not have been happy. Unfortunately people died or are hurt. So we also lost, one death or injured is one too many. Imagine a simple alternative: A committee of the opposition is allowed to go forward meet with Lula or whomever, hand in the document and we could have all been home by 2 PM. Too easy for the minds of fascists.

I thank Daniel for actually worrying about my whereabouts so much that he posted about it, and for the many that sent e-mails asking if I was OK, including you Mari, so far away in space and time. We are just OK, it was not simply just another day.

One should not write when one is charged up. I should not write. I will let the pictures speak for themselves. There was a lot of unnecessary repression today. Chavez was like Nero in burning Rome, talking about peace and justice while this was going on outside. As I write, 7 PM Caracas time, it is dark, but there are still people out there challenging the National Guard. That was the big difference today. In all previous marches, once the tear gas and plastic bullets began, people would leave. They did not today. They stayed massively. And they were repressed without mercy. I saw women thrown to the ground, I saw Guards shoot tear gas canisters to a person less than six feet away. I saw the National Guard use strategies to trap people in the gas. I saw people vomit, get up and go back for more. Two people died and twenty are hospitalized. I will write more later, here are some pictures, too many. The page will be very heavy, but I think it is worth it.

Once again, today’s Tal Cual Editorial which expands on some of the things I said yesterday about Dr. Rodriguez’ statements and asks the CNE to reconsider (the boldface is Tal Cual’s emphasis):

CNE Director Jorge Rodríguez affirmed yesterday that no regulations for the petition for the recall referendum had been modified after they were issued. This is not true. The resolution by the CNE by which the regulations were issued and named “Regulations to regulate the recall referendum processes to revoke the mandates of popularly elected positions” was approved on September 25^th. 2003 and appeared published in the Electoral Gazette on September 26^th. In it, there is no reference to the forms with the same calligraphy for the data of those signing the petition. In November, on a date as yet not specified, a directive was approved aimed at the observers of the process of gathering the signatures, which were persons appointed by the CNE and should have followed the instructions. In these instructions, in its second page, there is a note that says:” Important: The data in the form for gathering signatures mentioned before, should be registered by the person signing, after the presentation of the national ID card (even if it has expired) in front of the agent collecting the signatures”.

This note alters substantially Article 29 of said regulations which in its number 5 establishes that a signature will be invalidated “if it is determined that the same signature comes from the same person”. Neither in that article nor in any other article of the same, there is even the slightest mention to the effect that the signatures for which the data is not filled by the person signing will be invalidated. This directive changed in November, a rule of the game issued in September. Or not, Dr. Rodríguez? It is also true and should be said, that the CNE Published in Ultimas Noticias (a local newspaper) the day before and during the two first days of both petition drives, a full page ad, with instruction for those signing , which in its part 5 said: “You should fill the form with your data”. But this is even worse: The same days of the signature collection, those signing were informed of a rule, which had never been mentioned previously.

On the other hand, the resolution about “Norms to regulate the activities of the CNE observers…and of the collection agents…”, approved on October 30th. 2003, obligates the “observers” in part E of section 4 to “Be present in the signature collection and to note the observations that may arise according to the terms included in article 25 of “the regulations to regulate the recall referendum processes to revoke the mandates of popularly elected positions” Since no Director of the CNE has informed us that the CNE observers had noted any observations during the filling of the “planas” (forms with the same calligraphy), it should be presumed that none of them considered worthy of mention any observation about such “planas”. That article 25 establishes that “The CNE observers will limit their role to be present at the gathering of the signatures…and sign and fill out the cover form …with its pertinent observations if there were any”

Apparently there were none, because as we said before, there are no cover sheets of the forms with observations referring to the “planas”. The observers, despite the directive, did not consider anomalous the filing out of the data on the part of those collecting the signatures. Or did they Dr. Rodríguez? If it was a mistake by the “observers”, can the CNE argue in its own decision its own errors and punish the citizens that were signing?

Even worse, the changes in the rules of the game were not participated by those most interest in it: those collecting the signatures. The directive was only for CNE employees. For the others there was no directive that would remind them about the supposed obligation of informing those signing that they had to fill the data themselves.

Was it simply carelessness? For those collecting the signatures, article 8, part B of the “Norms” of October 30^th. establishes the following responsibility:

“Inform each elector that subscribes the form for collecting the signatures, about the data in the same and that is has manifested his/her will to sign and ask for the laminated ID card even if it has expired”.

As you can see, the signature collector was responsible only of informing the person signing about the data he/she had to provide (national ID number, First name, Last name and birthdate), but there was no indication that the person had to fill in such data in the form. Where the law or the regulations say nothing, the interpreter can not substitute his/her own particular opinion. Even more, the article talks about “The person that subscribes”, it means the “person that signs”, because that is precisely what the verb”to subscribe means.

It is evident that those that drafted the “Norms” had in their minds that what gives value and validity is the signature of those signing, not the mere data of his/her identity.

A failed act is what this is called by the psychiatry colleagues of Dr. Rodriguez.

On the other hand, Jorge Rodríguez said that the CNE could consider the possibility that a statistical sampling may be performed, but then “they should propose it”

Why doesn’t the CNE, of motu propio, appeal to this solution, which was suggested by the OAS and the Carter Center? Rodríguez extended himself on considerations about sample size and “admissible statistical error”, but went over the “little detail” that the CNE, if it wants to really search for solutions could design, without the need to hire a Noble Prize in Mathematics(??), the sampling that it considers ideal, with a margin of error that is compatible with the confidence in the procedure.

This should be the behavior of a body that tries to facilitate the exercise of a right of the citizens, not block it. The CNE has to rectify and society has the right to request it.

Rumors, lots of rumors abound, coups, self-coups (what for, he got us man?) sensible solutions coming, unreasonable ones being ratified, the OAS is pulling out, Carter is coming, Carrasquero is being blackmailed, the Supreme Court will intervene, the Amigos are pissed, Gaviria is not coming, Sumate leaders to be jailed, Cuba wants to get rid of Chavez, this was all planned in Cuba, and I am worrying about statistical significance…

You see, even if I am statistically insignificant, I can’t help but worry about the misuses and uses of statistics. You would think that a trained psychiatrist in a country with tropical diseases would have some idea about statistics. After all, he was trained as a medical doctor and I imagine they have a subject called epidemiology to help him understand the difference between one, one hundred and one thousand cases of an illness, as to being something to worry about or not.

I am, of course, talking about our esteemed CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. That man who is full of compassion, who is fair, who is honest and impartial, according to the Government and who is a @#*/?^er according to the opposition. Just when I thought I would learn about that higher logic used in the decision by the CNE, he comes and says, just like that:

“It is clear in the regulations that the data of the citizen had by the citizen himself”

Being a nit picking wit since a long time ago, rather than go to the regulations I appeal to Merriam Webster online, where I find that the word clear means bright, luminous, clean, pure, plain, unmistakable, sure, innocent, unqualified, absolute and bare (my favorite). Then, I go to that wonderful work of German precision and engineering and pride of judicial creativity of the Vth. Republic , called in short “Regulations for recall referenda processes of the mandate of positions by popular elections”.

I search, but obviously after sleeping badly last night concerned about the future, I miss that particular article out of the 65 that would illuminate, cleanse and purify my mind with the truth. I go back to no avail. I then use the search feature in my browser and look for signature (“firma” in Spanish), there are many, but the only apparent relevant ones are Art. 22, 2. which says:

Art. 22. The form which constitutes the request to convoque a recall referendum should contain:

Name, Last name, position of the public official whose mandate is pretended to be revoked, as well as an indication of the effective date in which he was inaugurated.

Name, Last name, national ID number, birthdate, name of the electoral circuit, manuscript original signature and fingerprint of the electors that request that the recall referendum be convoked, in legible form.

Later it says in Art.29:

Art. 29. The signatures or requests will not be considered faithful and in consequence will be considered invalid, in any of the following assumptions:

If there is incongruence between the name, last name, birthdate and national ID number of the person signing.

If the person is not registered in the electoral circuit corresponding to the referendum that is being convoked.

If the signature is not manuscript.

If the signature is a product of a photocopy or nay other media of reproduction.

If it is determine that more than one signature comes from the same person

By now, reading all this legalese I realize I have become stupid or something, as I find no clear, bright or even naked mention to what our illustrious Dr. Rodriguez says. What I did find was two mentions to manuscript signatures and NONE to the rest that he so clearly sees. I imagine Paris Hilton must also be totally different through Dr. Rodriguez’s eyes. As usual, when I am tired or pissed, I digress.

Despite my poor reading Dr. Rodriguez continues:

In article 29, #5, where it is established that for a signature to be faithful the same person could not take the data or different signatures, but that each person had to provide his/her name, last name, ID number, birthdate, signature and fingerprint….that there was an instruction bulletin for observers (show me a copy!) that said that each person fills the corresponding data and that the CNE published ads that said that it was “very important” that the data be filled by the person signing. (Would love him to show us one, however, the regulations are above the ads or the instruction bulletins, that is why they are published in the official gazette).

By now, I give up, but continue reading Dr. Rodriguez eloquent explanation of his brilliant rationale. About the OAS suggestion of analyzing a random sample of the forms he said

“I have no problem; however, I consider it to be statistically unacceptable”

It is at this point that that light bulb goes on in my brain. Of course! That is the key! Statistical significance is where it’s at! Brilliant Dr. Rodriguez, absolutely brilliant! Something that was unclear to 40% of the people signing for the opposition was clear to him, something that was also unclear to at least 50% of those signing the pro-Chavez petition was very clear to him. Since the error goes as 1/root (sample size), and the sample size was in the one million size, it is statistically insignificant to have so many people think differently than him. No matter how many signatures we sample, the result will come out different that he wants, and that is what he calls statistical significance: If Dr. Rodriguez agrees with it, it is statistically significant, if not, simply forget it!

That is why I feel so insignificant tonight, statistically and otherwise!

Rumors, lots of rumors abound, coups, self-coups (what for, he got us man?) sensible solutions coming, unreasonable ones being ratified, the OAS is pulling out, Carter is coming, Carrasquero is being blackmailed, the Supreme Court will intervene, the Amigos are pissed, Gaviria is not coming, Sumate leaders to be jailed, Cuba wants to get rid of Chavez, this was all planned in Cuba, and I am worrying about statistical significance…

You see, even if I am statistically insignificant, I can’t help but worry about the misuses and uses of statistics. You would think that a trained psychiatrist in a country with tropical diseases would have some idea about statistics. After all, he was trained as a medical doctor and I imagine they have a subject called epidemiology to help him understand the difference between one, one hundred and one thousand cases of an illness, as to being something to worry about or not.

I am, of course, talking about our esteemed CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. That man who is full of compassion, who is fair, who is honest and impartial, according to the Government and who is a @#*/?^er according to the opposition. Just when I thought I would learn about that higher logic used in the decision by the CNE, he comes and says, just like that:

“It is clear in the regulations that the data of the citizen had by the citizen himself”

Being a nit picking wit since a long time ago, rather than go to the regulations I appeal to Merriam Webster online, where I find that the word clear means bright, luminous, clean, pure, plain, unmistakable, sure, innocent, unqualified, absolute and bare (my favorite). Then, I go to that wonderful work of German precision and engineering and pride of judicial creativity of the Vth. Republic , called in short “Regulations for recall referenda processes of the mandate of positions by popular elections”.

I search, but obviously after sleeping badly last night concerned about the future, I miss that particular article out of the 65 that would illuminate, cleanse and purify my mind with the truth. I go back to no avail. I then use the search feature in my browser and look for signature (“firma” in Spanish), there are many, but the only apparent relevant ones are Art. 22, 2. which says:

Art. 22. The form which constitutes the request to convoque a recall referendum should contain:

Name, Last name, position of the public official whose mandate is pretended to be revoked, as well as an indication of the effective date in which he was inaugurated.

Name, Last name, national ID number, birthdate, name of the electoral circuit, manuscript original signature and fingerprint of the electors that request that the recall referendum be convoked, in legible form.

Later it says in Art.29:

Art. 29. The signatures or requests will not be considered faithful and in consequence will be considered invalid, in any of the following assumptions:

If there is incongruence between the name, last name, birthdate and national ID number of the person signing.

If the person is not registered in the electoral circuit corresponding to the referendum that is being convoked.

If the signature is not manuscript.

If the signature is a product of a photocopy or nay other media of reproduction.

If it is determine that more than one signature comes from the same person

By now, reading all this legalese I realize I have become stupid or something, as I find no clear, bright or even naked mention to what our illustrious Dr. Rodriguez says. What I did find was two mentions to manuscript signatures and NONE to the rest that he so clearly sees. I imagine Paris Hilton must also be totally different through Dr. Rodriguez’s eyes. As usual, when I am tired or pissed, I digress.

Despite my poor reading Dr. Rodriguez continues:

In article 29, #5, where it is established that for a signature to be faithful the same person could not take the data or different signatures, but that each person had to provide his/her name, last name, ID number, birthdate, signature and fingerprint….that there was an instruction bulletin for observers (show me a copy!) that said that each person fills the corresponding data and that the CNE published ads that said that it was “very important” that the data be filled by the person signing. (Would love him to show us one, however, the regulations are above the ads or the instruction bulletins, that is why they are published in the official gazette).

By now, I give up, but continue reading Dr. Rodriguez eloquent explanation of his brilliant rationale. About the OAS suggestion of analyzing a random sample of the forms he said

“I have no problem; however, I consider it to be statistically unacceptable”

It is at this point that that light bulb goes on in my brain. Of course! That is the key! Statistical significance is where it’s at! Brilliant Dr. Rodriguez, absolutely brilliant! Something that was unclear to 40% of the people signing for the opposition was clear to him, something that was also unclear to at least 50% of those signing the pro-Chavez petition was very clear to him. Since the error goes as 1/root (sample size), and the sample size was in the one million size, it is statistically insignificant to have so many people think differently than him. No matter how many signatures we sample, the result will come out different that he wants, and that is what he calls statistical significance: If Dr. Rodriguez agrees with it, it is statistically significant, if not, simply forget it!

That is why I feel so insignificant tonight, statistically and otherwise!

This is today’s Editorial of Tal Cual

At the CNE they placed under observation 213 thousand forms for the presidential recall referendum of which 148 thousand correspond to the so called “planas”. (Forms with the same calligraphy for the person’s data). This means that through an as yet unknown procedure, for which new specific regulations will be approved, citizens with their national ID card would have to clarify if they signed or not. It is the responsibility of the citizen to demonstrate he or she is not a crook. 

The presumption of innocence, which is the basis of all judicial systems, is transformed by the Carrasquero Doctrine in the presumption of culpability: All people are delinquents until they can prove the opposite. The Board of the CNE even rejected the sensible suggestion by the OAS and the Carter Center of verifying through a random sampling the legitimacy of the signatures and approved this grotesque inversion of the burden of proof.

We could see this coming when a draft of regulations (approved last night too) was announced that considered “suspicious” the same calligraphy not only on the signature but in the space where the data of the citizen is filled.

This was not contemplated in the “Regulations” for the verification of the signatures, in which the only cause for invalidating was the same calligraphy of the signatures.

And this is the only possible logic, because what makes the act of requesting the recall referendum “very personal” is the signature of the citizen and not the way in which his personal data which identifies him was entered.

The truth of the matter is that the majority of the Board of the CNE, in its attempt to avoid responsibility, has translated to the citizens the definite verification of the signatures. How would people be able to do this? It has not been established yet. Who guarantees that the process of exercising the right to amend the elimination of the signatures will not be blocked by new tricks or changes in the rules of the game? Will the Army be available to guarantee the security of the citizens? Will it be a simple process or an obstacle course so complex and difficult to fill as the cover forms for the petition signatures that will allow the CNE to approve a new path for the rules for those situations “that just happened“ as the Carrasquero Doctrine calls them? We have reached a very delicate point in the process. The feeling that the will of millions of citizens can be laughed at through the famous “tricks” mentioned by Carter, does nothing but be reaffirmed each day that goes by. And with it the perception that the country is dangerously approaching an inflection point in its immediate history.

By the usual 3-2 vote, the Consejo Nacional Electoral decided to keep under observation 148,000 forms with the signatures for the petition requesting for President Chavez’ recall. Next week, a decision will be made on how people will be able to contest the exclusion of their signature from the petition. Sobella Mejias, who voted against the decision, said this is a flagrant violation of the regulations the CNE approved and of the Constitutional right for requesting a recall. This is a very dirty decision and a rip off by the pro-Chavez members of the CNE, violates the law and goes against the tradition of what a person’s signature is worth and means.

Essentially in one big swipe, the CNE managed to set aside close to 1.4 million signatures of the 3.4 million submitted by the opposition, managing in this way to reduce the number below the 2.4 million required to hold a referendum to recall Hugo Chavez. The trick was to disqualify those signatures in which the person at the poll booth gathering the petition filled out the data, copying it from the national idenity card of the person signing. This was legal as the regulations only said that the person had to sign and stamp his/her fingerprint and the data had to match that of the electoral registry.  International observers monitored the process and both the OAS and the Carter Center knew that the opposition had the required minimum for the recall to take place.

What apparently will happen now, is that hundreds of thousands of people will once again have to go out to say they did sign the petition. This is a travesty, a simple petition has turned into a complex process in which the person’s signature and fingerprint were questioned without any basis whatsoever. The burden of proof was on the electoral body to show they were fake, not the other way around. Getting enough people to go and say they did sign is doable, but this uses up time, which is of the essence. According to the country’s Constitution, if the recall vote takes place after Aug. 19th., Chavez’ fourth anniversary in office, instead of electing a new President, the Vice-President takes over.

This is the third time that a referendum petition handed in by the opposition is blocked on the basis of technicalities. So much for the “participative” democracy that Hugo Chavez used to proclaim.

It is a very sad day for Venezuelan democracy, whatever is left of it.

The country is simply dead. No Alo Presidente on Sunday (a blessing!). Few politicians around, as the urgency of the political crisis is set aside for a few days, while people celebrate Venezuela’s non-existent Carnival. Instead, they go to the beach, to their hometown and those that are stuck at home or in the barrios throw water or eggs at passersbys. Such tradition!.

And speaking of tradition, Venezuelan politicians can’t even keep a promise for two days. Last Friday, the President of the CNE was on TV saying how the Board would work hard all weekend to resolve the huge issues facing them. But they acted with the same faithfulness and responsibility that characterizes Venezuelan fatherhood, no sooner had Carrasquero made his statement, that a caller to a TV program said that he was at the airport leaving for Maracaibo. The next day, he was not there but the other four Directors were. On Sunday they were still working, sans Carrasquero, but by today the CNE was a deserted as the rest of the city.

Thus the beat goes on and the only big topic of discussion was Chavez’ statements in Guyana, right before the Carnival holidays. You can read more details in Daniel’s blog but I can’t pass it up.

Essentially, Venezuela has had a long standing dispute with Guyana over a territory which is about 16% that of Venezuela (and 40% of Guyana’s!). At the turn of the century, there was a decision by an international Court that that area belonged to Guyana, then a British colony. Later, it was discovered through the will of one of those that participated in the decision, that it had all been fixed. Since 1949, Venezuela has been “claiming” this area. Venezuela has taken it to international courts and the “fight” has dragged on for years. It is a very emotional issue of the type I dislike.

Venezuela signed an agreement, known as the Geneva agreement, to look for a peaceful solution to the dispute. In 1999, the United Nations named a mediator to try to find a solution to the problem. Chavez’ own new Constitution defines the borders of the country and includes the Guyana territory within it, by defining the borders as those at the time of the “Capitania General” around 1810. Moreover, when the current Vice-President was Minister of Defense he got all worked up once, denouncing that Guyana was trying to assign areas within the claimed territory to oil companies for exploration. (It is not demonstrated that there is oil there anyway)

Last week. Chavez went to Guyana on an official visit and surprised everyone by giving the green light to that country’s President to begin oil exploration in the claimed area. This is a complete about face of the policy of the last six Venezuelan Governments including Chavez’.

The question is then, why would the supposedly hyper nationalistic Chávez change his mind on this issue all of a sudden? Easy, if Chavez were to stop the recall referendum, the OAS will likely attempt to invoke the Democratic letter of that organization, of which Venezuela is a signee. However, the countries of the CARICOM would have to vote against Venezuela for that to happen. Not an easy thing, given that Venezuela sells subsidized oil to many of these countries. Thus, the opposition charges, Chavez changed his mind simply to save his own skin.

In my mind, this is one of those nationalistic issues that seem to bring the worst in people. I find it amazingly hypocritical that politicians that have not been able to take care (then and now) of the almost one million square kilometers of land we already have, actually want to add more to it, to mismanage it or ignore it. But I am sure someone is going to get mad at me for thinking the Guyana claim is not that important. Sorry, I just don’t.  

Do we need that area to survive? Is it crucial to our development? Would we do anything with it if it were given back to us? Do the citizens of that area speak English or Spanish? Do they want to be part of Venezuela or Guyana? 

If we were up to me, I would negotiate something sensible with Guyana so that both countries could get on with their lives, the politicians screwing the citizens as usual. Of course, any agreemnet would have to be done under the law, with the approval of the National Assembly, which would have to change the Constitution and approve the treaty. This is essentially impossible. And this is where Chavez blew it; he can not act like he did at the personal level and make a decision which violates the law and the Constitution. But what else is new? Unfortunately this distracts attention from the more pressing problems of the country.