The Devil's Excrement

I am now convinced that the next four weeks will be critical in defining the country’s and Chavez’ future. While it will be difficult for the opposition, given the regulations approved, to obtain the four million signatures it wants, the Government feels quite threatened by it. Simply put, if the “Reafirmazo” (re-signing in Spanish) is widely successful and a number of signatures close to the number required to recall Chavez is gathered, the event itself might turn out to be the recall referendum, making the real event three months later simply moot. Chavez will simply become a lame-duck President. The world will know he no longer has the popularity or the mandate that he claims to have. Any attempt between that day and the actual recall date to stop the vote will be seen both here and abroad as a totally undemocratic act. In fact, the new regulations, by making it difficult to gather all of the required signatures,in some sense will also make it more difficult to question the results of the Reafirmazo. Delaying tactics simply become much harder to implement, given the deatiled regulations isued by the CNE. Each signature will be accompanied by the fingerprint of the person; each form will have a code, so that their origin and source will be known. This will make any delaying tactic by the Chavez administration much more difficult to implement. Thus, either the Reafirmazo is stopped or the Chavez administration will lose most of its ability to govern, even before the actual recall referendum takes place.

            The Chavez administration, with his actions, may be showing signs that it knows the signing of the forms may become a trap and it has now becomen more significant that the recall itself. Its actions in the last two weeks indicate a change in strategy. Obviously a more radical course is being developed, both locally and internationally. The once all-important international opinion seems to be less critical. The Chavez administration has not only told the US not to meddle in the internal affairs of the country, but it told the same to the OAS. The difference is clear; Venezuela has signed the OAS treaties that regulate human rights in the Americas. The Venezuelan Constitution explicitly says that such treaties are binding. Thus, the Chavez administration is beginning to play a dangerous game by acting this way and threatening not to obey the OAS’ orders on human rights. But this is likely the game Chavez wants to play. By appealing to nationalism, stirring the opposition into rash action and creating local incidents, the administration may want to generate reactions that will “force it” to postpone the Reafirmazo arguing that the conditions to carry it out at this time are not present at this time. If this happens, it is difficult to even guess where the country is headed……

I am now convinced that the next four weeks will be critical in defining the country’s and Chavez’ future. While it will be difficult for the opposition, given the regulations approved, to obtain the four million signatures it wants, the Government feels quite threatened by it. Simply put, if the “Reafirmazo” (re-signing in Spanish) is widely successful and a number of signatures close to the number required to recall Chavez is gathered, the event itself might turn out to be the recall referendum, making the real event three months later simply moot. Chavez will simply become a lame-duck President. The world will know he no longer has the popularity or the mandate that he claims to have. Any attempt between that day and the actual recall date to stop the vote will be seen both here and abroad as a totally undemocratic act. In fact, the new regulations, by making it difficult to gather all of the required signatures,in some sense will also make it more difficult to question the results of the Reafirmazo. Delaying tactics simply become much harder to implement, given the deatiled regulations isued by the CNE. Each signature will be accompanied by the fingerprint of the person; each form will have a code, so that their origin and source will be known. This will make any delaying tactic by the Chavez administration much more difficult to implement. Thus, either the Reafirmazo is stopped or the Chavez administration will lose most of its ability to govern, even before the actual recall referendum takes place.

            The Chavez administration, with his actions, may be showing signs that it knows the signing of the forms may become a trap and it has now becomen more significant that the recall itself. Its actions in the last two weeks indicate a change in strategy. Obviously a more radical course is being developed, both locally and internationally. The once all-important international opinion seems to be less critical. The Chavez administration has not only told the US not to meddle in the internal affairs of the country, but it told the same to the OAS. The difference is clear; Venezuela has signed the OAS treaties that regulate human rights in the Americas. The Venezuelan Constitution explicitly says that such treaties are binding. Thus, the Chavez administration is beginning to play a dangerous game by acting this way and threatening not to obey the OAS’ orders on human rights. But this is likely the game Chavez wants to play. By appealing to nationalism, stirring the opposition into rash action and creating local incidents, the administration may want to generate reactions that will “force it” to postpone the Reafirmazo arguing that the conditions to carry it out at this time are not present at this time. If this happens, it is difficult to even guess where the country is headed……

Venezuela’s representative in front of the international Human Rights organizations wrote a report to the Foreign Minsiter essentially blasting the country’s positions with respect to the decisions by the OAS’ Human Rights Comission. Jorge Dugarte, whose job security I am sure is theatened by his report, recommneded that the Government avoid sanctions or be denounced by the Interamerican Human Rights Court. The report tells the Government to report the confiscated equimpent to Globovision as requested by the Interamerican Human Rights Court. Dugarte reminded the Government that in international bodies, such commissions do not discuss the internal laws of the countries, but the respect the countries have with the Interamerican Convention on Human Rights and its regulations. Dugarte said “the contradiction between power and opinion is as old as democracy” and quoting Colombian President LLeras Restrepo said: “it is preferably to have an overboard press than a muzzled press”. I think Mr. Dugarte is certainl;y right, but he is doing what nobody else in the Chavez admisnitartion has been able to do without being fired: telling the President he is not right. The main fault of the Chavez presidency has been that Chavez always has the last word and he thinks he is above the law. I would bet Mr. Dugarte will lose his job very soon.

Yesterday, there was an event to discuss the video made at Puente El Llaguno last April, 11, 2002 (see this link). Many aspects of the video were discussed. But perhaps nothing illustrates better the impunity under the Chavez administration that the numbers derived from it and the events that day:

-A total of 35 different people are seen shooting in various parts of the video. Ten of those were covering their faces and can not be identified. 25 have their faces visible in teh video and could be identified.

-There were 20 deaths, 300 injured and a total of 1500 spent bullets were picked up.

-All of Venpres’ (the state press agency) reports were destroyed and the autopsy protocols have not bee made available to anyone.

-There is not a single person sanctioned for these crimes.

This is the level of impunity in the Chavez administartion.

New article via Unite Press International with more specific charges about Chavez’ links to terrorist groups. The evidence mounts……

In some positive news today, the Government did obey the order by the Venezuelan Supreme Court for military personnel to abandon the headquarters of the Metropolitan police late last night, a few hours after the deadline. As usual, the Government pushes forward and takes a step back. This is good, but we are still living uncertain times.

I have added the link to a new Venezuelan blog by Guillermo under Venezuelan blogs, he apparently lives in Cambridge, Mass, a place dear to my heart. I enjoyed his piece on Venezuela, the way he tells the Chavez story and his descriptions of the problems his familiy had leaving Caracas. It all seemed so familiar the way he tells it….. The blog is called Venepoetics clearly suggesting what its main focus will be.

Another good article by Veneconomy

Propaganda in true Goebbels style

Time and again, the Chávez administration has demonstrated its incompetence in dealing with what happens in the country, on all fronts. The only area where it has proved itself to be competent and efficient has been that of political propaganda, an ability that has produced results, so far.
It could be said that, next to the Nazi Germany of Goebbels, Venezuela, with Chávez at its head, is the country that has achieved most success in the sphere of political propaganda. The opening ceremony of the High-level Meeting on Poverty, Equity, and Social Inclusion, now being held on Margarita, was another example of a successfully implemented propaganda exercise.
In addition to refuting each of the points made by OAS Secretary General, César Gaviria, President Chávez carefully trained his batteries on attempting to convince those attending the meeting of the efforts that his government has been making to “palliate” the situation of poverty beleaguering the country. Plan Robinson (literacy campaign) and Plan Barrio Adentro (health) were described in such favorable terms by the government speakers that anyone who is unfamiliar with what is actually happening in Venezuela could easily believe in the information circulated by the government. These “achievements” have only recently been raised in the breasts of the Venezuelan authorities. Obviously, all this has been prompted by electoral considerations.
The media covered the highlights of the opening ceremony, but said very little of the propaganda effort deployed during the event. The government has been counting on this mechanism from the start.
This is a very well thought out strategy, one that has even been implemented internationally, where information networks undertake to disseminate information that puts the government in a favorable light. They take a true fact, something that actually exists or has happened, and then twist whatever caused it or its consequences. The result has been that, for quite some time, the foreign press was considerate in its treatment of the Chávez administration, despite its numerous demonstrations of authoritarianism.
So far the political propaganda has produced the desired dramatic effect, but with elections on the way, there is very little that can be manipulated. It could be that the mirages created by the government are beginning to evaporate.

The Red Sox and my own job have kept me away from blogging much the last two days. Somehow the dynamics of what is going on here are changing, or I perceive they are changing. Chavez seems closer to a rupture with democracy at this time. It may not happen soon, but besides Globovision, there has also been the refusal to accept or comply with the precautionary measures of the OAS Human Rights Commission. Last night, in an event that has received very little coverage, Chavez told the audience, which included the OAS Secretary General, that his Government would not abide by the decisions of the Human Rights Commission. He told the world that this is a sovereign country and we would solve our problems. This is true, but the main progress of the modern world since the fall of the Berlin wall is that the world is not willing to tolerate Human Rights violations. And while much has been made over the Globovision sanctions, the way in which the National Guard evicted people in Los Semerecucos, where former oil workers live, is to me a much worse crime. When kids get tear gassed in their neighborhoods and homes, there is a sense of violation that hurts beyond the ability to speak up and defend free speech. Who cares if you can or can not say whatever you want if the repression continues to occur day after day? Who cares if the Supreme Court gives the Minister of Defense 72 hours to leave the Metropolitan Police headquarters, if the time elapses and the Minister does not obey? What will the Court say or do now? Jail him? Then what? What will it do? Where is the law? Who will do anything if there is no referendum?

The level of cynicism by military officials is also reaching dangerous levels. Last week it was infamous General Garcia Carneiro telling the press how good things are in Venezuela as poverty has shot up ten percentage points during Chavez’ administration. This week it was the National Guard General Villegas saying that in Los Semerucos he was only following orders. We have heard that excuse before in many parts of the world. What the General does not seem to understand is that we will not forget that he used that as an excuse or that he also led the National Guardsmen last December 3d. when peaceful Venezuelans were repressed and hurt just because….and I imagine the General will also say that he was following orders that day. But you see, we have movies, we have even pictures right here in this blog of the results that day. And one day we will use them in Court and even though I don’t want revenge, I do want the world to know what happened here in April 2002, Dec. 3d. and the last three weeks in Los Semerucos. And I want those responsible, those that gave the orders and those that did not have the dignity to refuse to obey to pay for their crimes. Let’s hope this is as bad as it gets, but I fear it it may not be.