The Devil's Excrement

An excerpt from today’s Tal Cual Editorial (by subscription only)on why Chavez has been unable to distribute better income and Table from the inside of the same paper:

“If one takes into account that in the year 2002 and so far in 2003 both inflation and unemployment increased significantly, we can infer that up to today, the distribution of income has become more negative towards workers. At the close of 2001, the percentage of unemployed Venezuelans reached 13% of the active population. At the close of 2002 the number was over 16% and at this moment it is at 18%. On the other hand, inflation in 2001 closed at 12.3% and jumped to 31.2% in 2002 and in the first seven months of this year it is already at 17.4%, with which one may Project to the end of the year a number somewhat higher than that of 2002. (All official numbers from the INE 8National Institute for Statistics and the BCV, the Venezuelan Central Bank.). In other words, the increase in unemployment and the CPI of the last year can only translate in an even more regressive distribution of income for labor sectors

This is the real and dramatic balance of the four and half years of the Chavista Government. But there is another aspect. Our esteemed charlatan goes around the world proposing referenda about the external debt, repeating the usual clichés about the “external debt”, but here at home, in only tour years he has increased public debt by more than US$10 billion. And he ahs just requested authorization to borrow US$ 3 billion from international banks.

Thus a debt that Chavez received in US$24 billion (between external and internal), he has taken it to more than US$34 billion.

What does this mean in practical terms?

From the national budget increasing percentages will be used to pay the debt, taking them out of educational and health expenses. The future an immediate generations will pay the broken dishes of a coarse administration, which has done nothing but repeat the trends that I, the Supreme condemned in the past and which he still refers to (abroad) as if his won administration had not been a magnified and worse repetition that those carried out by his predecessors.

How crummy has this “revolution” turned out!”

The above table shows some important macroeconomic numbers and how they have evolved during Chavez’ Presidency. From top to bottom: Price of a barrel of oil, GDP change,inflation, unemployment, imports, exports, exchange rate and foreign investment. The only missing parameter is debt, as the Tal Cual Editorial points out, total debt has increased from US$ 24 billion to US$ 34 billion despite oil income that has been by far, the highest in the country’s history. Macroeconomic numbers never tell the whole story, but if they don’t improve, it is impossible to the people’s lot to do.

An excerpt from today’s Tal Cual Editorial (by subscription only)on why Chavez has been unable to distribute better income and Table from the inside of the same paper:

“If one takes into account that in the year 2002 and so far in 2003 both inflation and unemployment increased significantly, we can infer that up to today, the distribution of income has become more negative towards workers. At the close of 2001, the percentage of unemployed Venezuelans reached 13% of the active population. At the close of 2002 the number was over 16% and at this moment it is at 18%. On the other hand, inflation in 2001 closed at 12.3% and jumped to 31.2% in 2002 and in the first seven months of this year it is already at 17.4%, with which one may Project to the end of the year a number somewhat higher than that of 2002. (All official numbers from the INE 8National Institute for Statistics and the BCV, the Venezuelan Central Bank.). In other words, the increase in unemployment and the CPI of the last year can only translate in an even more regressive distribution of income for labor sectors

This is the real and dramatic balance of the four and half years of the Chavista Government. But there is another aspect. Our esteemed charlatan goes around the world proposing referenda about the external debt, repeating the usual clichés about the “external debt”, but here at home, in only tour years he has increased public debt by more than US$10 billion. And he ahs just requested authorization to borrow US$ 3 billion from international banks.

Thus a debt that Chavez received in US$24 billion (between external and internal), he has taken it to more than US$34 billion.

What does this mean in practical terms?

From the national budget increasing percentages will be used to pay the debt, taking them out of educational and health expenses. The future an immediate generations will pay the broken dishes of a coarse administration, which has done nothing but repeat the trends that I, the Supreme condemned in the past and which he still refers to (abroad) as if his won administration had not been a magnified and worse repetition that those carried out by his predecessors.

How crummy has this “revolution” turned out!”

The above table shows some important macroeconomic numbers and how they have evolved during Chavez’ Presidency. From top to bottom: Price of a barrel of oil, GDP change,inflation, unemployment, imports, exports, exchange rate and foreign investment. The only missing parameter is debt, as the Tal Cual Editorial points out, total debt has increased from US$ 24 billion to US$ 34 billion despite oil income that has been by far, the highest in the country’s history. Macroeconomic numbers never tell the whole story, but if they don’t improve, it is impossible to the people’s lot to do.

In order to avoid any temptation by any group to attempt to stop the petition with the signatures from reaching the National Electoral Council Headquarters, in a suprise move, the petition was handed in early this morning. (It already happened when the signatures for the failed consultative referendum were handed in last year, violent pro-Chavez groups attempted to block and hijack the truck that carried the signatures).  The more formal part of the hand in will take place later today during the march/rally.

It seemed like New Yera’s Eve, roughly an hour ago, as the people of Caracas and some parts of Venezuela took to the streets to celebrate that the mid-point of Hugo Chavez’ Presidency was here and we can call for a recall referendum to terminate his mandate. It was festive, with drums, people dancing and lots of fireworks, organized and not organized as people got ready for tomorrow. As the fireworks peaked, people began singing the National Anthem, definitely making the celebration quite emotional.

In a clear effort to intimidate those that plan to march tomorrow the Minister of Defense spoke to the nation tonight in a broadcast over all TV channels. He said that three of the marches that are scheduled for tomorrow can not have permits because they go by the “Security Zones’ defined by the military last December. The concept had not been revived until now and would have made many of the pro-Chavez marches illegal. He warnedf the citizens that “undesirable” events that take place tomorrow will be the sole responsability of the organizers. In this manner, once again, the Government skirts its responsabilities, intimidates the people and if and when the chavistas cause violence tomorrow, those responsible will be none other than the opposition leaders. Such is life in the bizarre Government of the self-appointed all-powerful all-knowing President Hugo Chavez. He thinks he is the law. Not for long.

As I write, the recall festivities have already started. There are fireworks exploding, Plaza Altamira is already full of traffic and people are honking their horns. Only 9 PM and lot’s of noise, the party was supposed to start at 11:30 PM, but I guess people want to warm it up early.

While Chavez’ MVR has been very quiet about the referendum, bypassing some statements like that by the Vice-President saying “He does not see a referendum this year”, the fireworks in what could become a conflict began today in earnest. The opposition and the Government began trading barbs at each other, when the Minister and the Vice-Minister of the Interior and Justice denied that the opposition had the required permits for tomorrow’s rally/demonstration/march/petition hand in. While Enrique Mendoza, the Governor of Miranda State and member of the Coordinadora Democratica, assured the media that the permits had been handed in on the 12th. and had been handed in to the Ministry and communicated to the Vice-President, the Government asked the opposition to cancel the march since it could not guarantee the safety of the people. As usual, the People’s Defender did nothing but side with the Government, expressing his concern at the absence of permits. Meanwhile, the Mayors of Baruta and Chacao where large parts of the marches will take place, said the permits had been given.  Thus, this becomes the first important conflict on the road to the formal recall referendum. I must say it makes me feel uneasy about tomorrow, when the Vice-Minister of the Interior and Justice says that the marches should be cancelled because in every previous instance when there were no permits there was loss of life, I can’t help but be concerned. Are we being threatened or intimidated?. I really don’t know. What I do know, is that I will be there tomorrow no matter what.

In a positive development, the leaders of Chavez’ MVR in the National Asembly said today that they will obey the decision by the Venezuelan Supreme Court to name the members of the National Electoral Council (CNE) which organizes and decides on all electoral matters. This is a positive devlopment (Yes, I am saying something nice about the Chavistas!) as it implies the law will be followed. The only question is why does the same leadership allow some Deputies to act like they do (See story below)

In an outrageous move, outlaw General Acosta Carles in the company of Deputy Iris Varela, led a group of laid off workers and took over a plant of paper company Venepal. Venepal is a paper products company that has been having difficulties ever since the currency was overvalued. The company had decided to close some plants and attempt to restructure it, while selling some assets that are still worth something. On Monday, Acosta Carles, who is famous for taking over beer distribution plants during teh strike and his famous and disgusting “burp” in front of all the media at the time, joined Miss Varela, an MVR Deputy, in leading a group of disgruntled workers in an “Assembly” that decided to take over the plant. The company has asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court for an injunction, but so far all we know is that two people strongly identified with the Chavez administartion have taken over private property without any respect for the law or without any order by any legal authority to do so. Such is life in a country without law, where anarchy is promoted from the top.

In an outrageous move, outlaw General Acosta Carles in the company of Deputy Iris Varela, led a group of laid off workers and took over a plant of paper company Venepal. Venepal is a paper products company that has been having difficulties ever since the currency was overvalued. The company had decided to close some plants and attempt to restructure it, while selling some assets that are still worth something. On Monday, Acosta Carles, who is famous for taking over beer distribution plants during teh strike and his famous and disgusting “burp” in front of all the media at the time, joined Miss Varela, an MVR Deputy, in leading a group of disgruntled workers in an “Assembly” that decided to take over the plant. The company has asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court for an injunction, but so far all we know is that two people strongly identified with the Chavez administartion have taken over private property without any respect for the law or without any order by any legal authority to do so. Such is life in a country without law, where anarchy is promoted from the top.