The Devil's Excrement

I recommend the interview with Mexican economist Luis Pazos in today’s El Universal. He has some very graphic metaphors, besides his usual sensible economic advise. I particularly liked:

-“He sees Chavez as a dinosaur, small and slow, and, thanks God, on its way to extinction”

-“If the Government does not cease in its attitude of imposing a siege on the private sector, whom it considers its enemy, will drive the economy to a degree of improductivity that will imply more than a collapse, a hara-kiri, that will not only kill the current Government, but also thousands of Venezuelans”

-“There is no justification for an economy to have collapsed in such a way as it did last year, and next year it will be worse, because in 2002 crude oil prices were very strong and they will likely fall significantly in 2004”

Wish we had someone as clear thinking as him in the Finance Comittee of the National Assembly (from either side)

The pro-Chavez leadership in the National Asembly rejected yesterday’s decision by the Supreme Court, giving them ten days to choose the members of the Electoral Board. According to them, there has been no omission since they had made all efforts to select the members of the Electoral Board. Interesting, there is no omission but they had ten days from April 8th. to select the Board, let’s see that makes it 18th. of April and today is August 5th., I guess they just don’t understand what omission means, no? But the part I don’t understand is that they say that it would appear to be a contradiction to replace a transitory regime (the current CNE) for another one that would still “would continue to lack constitutionally or democratic legitimacy”. It seems to me that it never bothered them to have the previous transient CNE until it started threatening them and now they find their same transient nature “undemocratic and illegimitate”? What cynics.

The pro-Chavez leadership in the National Asembly rejected yesterday’s decision by the Supreme Court, giving them ten days to choose the members of the Electoral Board. According to them, there has been no omission since they had made all efforts to select the members of the Electoral Board. Interesting, there is no omission but they had ten days from April 8th. to select the Board, let’s see that makes it 18th. of April and today is August 5th., I guess they just don’t understand what omission means, no? But the part I don’t understand is that they say that it would appear to be a contradiction to replace a transitory regime (the current CNE) for another one that would still “would continue to lack constitutionally or democratic legitimacy”. It seems to me that it never bothered them to have the previous transient CNE until it started threatening them and now they find their same transient nature “undemocratic and illegimitate”? What cynics.

By coincidence I realized yesterday that today was the one year anniversary of this blog. What a ride it has been! I started it because I was curious about my brother blogging intensely and as usual, I do not like being behind technologically speaking (even if I am). I dowloaded the software and wanted to see where it would take me. Never did I imagine that it would become a daily commitment like it has. I thought I would blog more about technology, orchids and curious facts and less about Venezuela. I guess events took over my Editorial content. At some point, soon after I started, I decided I would make my blog a depository record of the bizarre Government and events in Venezuela and a medium to explain to the world (if it is at all possible) from a definitely anti-Chavez point of view what is happening in Venezuela, documenting the news and the legalities of what has happened. It’s been fun!

Some interesting graphs on Chavez’ TV ratings from AGB Panamericana sent to me by JL. The first one below shows the number of hours Chavez has spent on the air in the last five years. Note that despite the fact that we are barely in August, he has almost spent more hours on Tv than than any previous year. These hours are the number of hours he gives speeches on TV in nationwide adresses that have to be broadcast by all networks.

The second graph below shows the percentage of the time that the market share for Cable TV is actually higher than that for the open TV signals that are forced to carry his speeches, when they occur. (People have a choice on Cable TV, not on the networks) Note that this is the market share, that is the number of viewers who are actually watching, not the number of potential viewers. More people watching cable means that they simply dont want to watch Chavez at all.

Finally, the last chart shows the ratings for Chavez’ famous or infamous Sunday TV program which is shown on the Government’s TV channel. Note how his rating went up last Xmas (time between teh two solid lines) during the work-stoppage but is back down to below 1%. This is rating the percentage of potential TV’s that are watching him on Sundays.

Some interesting graphs on Chavez’ TV ratings from AGB Panamericana sent to me by JL. The first one below shows the number of hours Chavez has spent on the air in the last five years. Note that despite the fact that we are barely in August, he has almost spent more hours on Tv than than any previous year. These hours are the number of hours he gives speeches on TV in nationwide adresses that have to be broadcast by all networks.

The second graph below shows the percentage of the time that the market share for Cable TV is actually higher than that for the open TV signals that are forced to carry his speeches, when they occur. (People have a choice on Cable TV, not on the networks) Note that this is the market share, that is the number of viewers who are actually watching, not the number of potential viewers. More people watching cable means that they simply dont want to watch Chavez at all.

Finally, the last chart shows the ratings for Chavez’ famous or infamous Sunday TV program which is shown on the Government’s TV channel. Note how his rating went up last Xmas (time between teh two solid lines) during the work-stoppage but is back down to below 1%. This is rating the percentage of potential TV’s that are watching him on Sundays.

It is interesting to look at the recent elections (search for Federacion de Centros and you get all of the news) at the Universidad de Los Andes because in some sense they are a reflection of the mood in the country, down to the details of denial and lack of information on all sides. The so-called Federacion de Centros is the organization that is equivalent to Student Council at any US University. In Venezuela political parties field candidates in these elections. There were three candidates, two for the opposition and on for Chavez’ MVR. In the end one of the opposition candidates Nixon Moreno, came in first place with 37.5-39% of the votes, followed by another opposition candidate Covelsi Sanchez who received 29-32% of the votes and in last place Tareck El Aisami, Chavez’ MVR’s candidate with roughly 27-28% of the vote. Mr. El Aisami was seeking reelection for a position he won running away during Mr. Chavez first year in power. Thus, the Chavistas were trounced 66%-71% to 27-28% in a segment of population where in any other country the “left” should win running away. There are a number of interesting facts about this election:

-Since the first day, there have been no more reports by either side on the percentage of the votes. Typical of Venezuela, since we know who won, who cares about the numbers, why publish them, count the votes or report them (I care! They are meaningful!)

-The loser Mr. El Aisami, refuses to accept that he lost.

– The Chavista Governor of Merida State Florencio Porras, while admitting Mr. El Aisami’s defeat, refuses to recognize him as the Chavista candidate, saying instead that he was “ the candidate of an alliance which included the youth of Chavez’ MVR”. Oh, I see! He was chosen by the youth of MVR but can not be interpreted as a loss for MVR. Weird logic, no? He even said: “I do not see much of an impact from this loss”…..Yeah, yeah, yeah

– Moreno was backed by MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo) and a small group from Accion Democratica. Coselvi was back by extreme-left party Bandera Roja, the Social Christians of COPEI, Primero Justicia, Accion Democratica and Patria Para Todos, which supports Chavez at the national level.

-Even more interesting, the Chavistas have suffered similar losses in the Universidad del Zulia and Universidad del Tachira. Despite their relevance and significance to national politics, little is known about these results nationally.

-What I find fascinating about these results is the quantitative similarity between them and those of national polls that attempt to probe the popularity of Hugo Chavez.

Chavez does not like polls, these are real votes!!

The Constitutional Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court just ruled the omission by the National Assembly in choosing the Electoral Board and gave the Assembly ten days to act on it or it will be forced to choose it. The Hall said that if the Assembly does not fullfill its role, then it will name an Electoral Comission (CNE) within the next ten days. The Court argued that it is the guarantor of the Constitution and since the Assembly has not reached the required two thirds consensus it had to step in. The ruling says that the new CNE would be only temporary, but its decisions would be binding and that those chosen by the Court may or not come from the 86 names proposed to the National Assembly. If the Assembly does not name the CNE, there should be a working one by Aug. 24th. which will guarantee that, if all is in order, the recall referendum may take place before the end of the year. A very positive and necessary (not sufficient!!) step to preserve democracy in Venezuela!

While I have been more optimistic lately about the possibility of the recall referendum taking place this year, I can’t help but be bothered by today’s article by Carlos Blanco “Maximo Peligro” (Maximum Danger) in today’s El Universal. Blanco, who is usually very well-informed, says that he has been told that Chavez has reached an agreement with Justuce Jesus Cabrera of the Constitutional Hall of the Supreme Court, so that the Hall will not object the bill being considered by the National Assembly to expand the number of Justices in the Court from twenty to thirty. In this manner, Chavez will say he had nothing to do with changing the composition of the Court, which in turn would “legally” block any effort by the majority of the people to hold a referendum and which would perpetuate this stupid “revolution”. Thus, in the next few weeks we will have to watch if the Supreme Court bill is accelerated in the National Assembly as a sign that this plot is moving forward.

While the opposition sometimes does not coordinate well its campaign against President Hugo Chavez, one issue that I believe is having a strong impact on the population is the Cuban issue. There are many reasons for this, first and foremost, Venezuelans have never been enamored of the Cuban revolution and Fidel Castro is a mythical image mostly among academic left-wingers who by now mostly oppose Chavez anyway. According to polls, 91% of Venezuelans do not want the country to move politically towards anything resembling the Cuban revolution. The second reason is that there is a xenophobic element in Venezuela towards immigrants, particularly if they are coming to take jobs away from Venezuelans as both Cuban medical doctors and alphabetizers are doing. This is nothing new, from the Spanish immigrants of the 50’s, to the Portuguese of the 60’s, the Argentineans and Chileans of the 70’s to the Colombian’s of the 80’s, Venezuelans have always felt that the Government should not allow so many people in, even if they themselves were not willing to take many of the same  jobs. (Is this an almost universal phenomenon?). Thus, Chavez and his cronies are making a big political mistake in bringing in these people and making the programs sound so purely Cuban. With so many unemployed Venezuelan teachers and doctors, why emphasize the Cuban aspect like they have? Moreover, they continue to do so at every step. Recently, there were charges that a baby was not given proper care by a Cuban doctor who gave him aspirin and the kid died of Meningitis later. I have no clue if this is true or not, but the government has tried to defend the issue even arguing that the clinic where the kid was being taken care of had no resources in a country where all Government medical facilities are facing the same problem. Even the Doctor himself accepted to give an interview saying that when he saw the kid three days before he died, there was no infection. Today, the mayor of the Libertador District of Caracas said it was not true that some doctors were deserting the program, a charge that even I had not heard, and believe me; I read almost every local newspaper with care. The issue simply does not go away, as the Government would like, and today Fidel Castro himself came into the fray saying things (Thanks to RMG for the link) that will simply not help Chavez and are already being used by the opposition as an intromission in Venezuelan affairs by the Cuban leader. Not only did Castro express his total admiration for Chavez, but he went too far saying that the Cuban doctors are here to stay and accusing the clinics that belong to the Caracas Mayor of incompetence. Thus, the Cuban issue may be quite important going forward. It is clear that the opposition has been emphasizing the state of the economy and crime as a way to reduce support for the President, but no issue may do more damage to Chavez than this one, at a time when polls indicate that 61% Venezuelans “think” they are right wing. Clearly in a country where most people are left wing, somehow the center has been misplaced by many. My sense is that no more than 4-5% of Venezuelans are what would be considered elsewhere as “rightwing”, but this is simply one of the consequences of the anti-Chavez attitude, since he represents the “left” most people do not want to be anywhere near him.