The Devil's Excrement

Whenever one source tells me something, I just process the information and leave it at that. When two sources tell me the same thing, I begin to wonder and look for confirmation. But when three different and reliable sources give me the same information. I use my long standing argument that I do not believe in coincidences. Well, three different sources have given me, in the last three days, the same information about a conspiray that appears so clever at first sight that it may actually be true. Cesar Gaviria, who has been in Caracas since November,has only left for Christmas and once or twice to attend to his responsabilities as Secretary General of the OAS, but this time has left on purpose. Basically, he believes that his presence in Caracas essentially has stopped the Governemnt from uncontrolled and illegal or undemocratic behavior. This week Gaviria left for one week, reportedly to take care of OAS businesses in Bolivia. Well, what I am being told is that the true reason was to see if in his absence the Chavez administration does something that would allow Gaviria to go on the international offensive against the Chavez administration and help push forward negotiations. I am told that even Colombian President Uribe is part of this convoluted conspiracy to press for a negotiation towrds an end to the Venezuelan political crisis. True? False? I simply don’t know, but we will se if anything happens in the next few days anyway.

It seems I was a little early yesterday when I wrote about the Government and poverty. It appears Hugo Chavez does not read his own Government statistics, as today he said he will fight poverty aggressively to erradicae “that 80% of the population” that lives below the poverty line. Now, I wonder what he thinks his job has been for the last four years, no? He said five years ago that reducing poverty was his number one goal, but now says poverty is the same as when he took office…..In the same nationwide address, Chavez accused some officers of the IMF of plotting last year’s coup agaisnt him…….way to go Hugo, that is how you gain friends internationally!

The Prosecutor from the Attorney General’s office who is accusing Hugo Chavez of violating the law when he approved the oil supply agreeent with Cuba, turns out to have quite a track record being the prosecutor of cases against Carlos Andrez Perez and his wife Cecilia Matos. Despite this Chavez’ MVR is already saying that this is the opposition using its forces within the Attoney General’s office to discredit Chavez.

When Hugo Chavez was a candidate he always referred to the “80% of Venezuelans” who lived in poverty. The number stuck and as with so many things in the Vth. Republic, it became the “truth”, despite the fact that studies from the Catholic University of Caracas which have been going on for over two decades said that the number (nothing to be proud of!) was actually 57%. Well, today’s El Nacional newspaper (page B-1, can’t be linked) has the latest statistics from the Government which claim that the number of Venezuelans living under the poverty line has actually decreased during the four years Chavez has been in power. According to the Government’s National Institute of Statistics, the 80% number that Chavez used to quote was more like 44% and is currently 41.5%.

Now, in the last four years, GDP per capita in Bolivars (local currency) has gone down by 17%, the CPI is up over 100%, the exchange rate has gone up by over 120% (using the official, controlled value) and official unemployment is up from 11% to 17%. Thus, it is hard to belive poverty has gone down. But let’s look at the numbers from the Catholic University UCAB) studies and those of the Government (INE):

                                1998         1999        2000        2001        2002        

UCAB                       57.6%       59.2%      60.3%     61.4%      65.0%

INE                          43.9%       41.9%      40.2%     39.0%      41.5%

According to the INE, the difference is methodological and what sources of income are taken into account. That may be possible, but it will not explain the fact that the two trends are so different or what happened to the 37% of the poor that have now magically dissapeared from the numbers.

The Head of the Federation of all Unions CTV, Carlos Ortega, sought political asylum in the Costa Rican Embassy today. Costa Rica granted the asylum later in the day. Ortega had a detention order agaisnt him for his role in the general strike. He was elected as Head of CTV in October 2000 in an election forced by the new Constitution. Ortega won by a margin of 56% to 19%  by the Government’s candidate Aristobulo Isturiz., the current Minsiter of Education. The Chavez administration refused to recognize Ortega’s victory arguing there were irregularities. Ortega then became Chavez; most formidable opponent, organizing marches and strikes against the Government and became one of the main leaders of the opposition. Reportedly, Ortega was told by a source, that the order was not to capture him but to kill him if detained. This is a severe blow to the opposition.

Up to now, the Attorney General’s office has failed to make any decision in the 18 cases against President Chávez on a variety of charges. Essentially, in Venezuela, if the President is accused, the Attorney General has to bring the case to the Supreme Court which will decide whether to remove the immunity of the President or not. In the case of Chávez, the Attorney General’s office has simply not decided in any case against the President, thus making it impossible to bring charges against Chávez. On the 11th. of March, one of the Prosecutors of the Attroney General’s office sent him a letter saying that there was evidence agaisnt Hugo Chávez in the case of the oil supplied to Cuba. Venezuela supplies Cuba with oil at a discount and easy financing based on an agreement signed between the two countries on Octuber 30th. 2000. However, that agreement was never submiitted for approval by the National Assembly as established in the Constitution and in violation of anti-corruption laws. The Attorney General will now have to decide whether to bring or not cahrges in front of the Supreme Court. Knowing him and how negligent he has been in the last two years when it comes to accusations agaisnt the Government or assasins, we simply doubt it.Other fairly straightforwrad cases against Chávez include the campaign contributions by Spain’s BBVA and the “missing” funds from the macroeconomic stabilization fund.