The Devil's Excrement

Yesterday I explained the conditions for a recall referendum based on article 75 of the Constitution. The Problem is that I used the version in a Government site, which is apparently not the correct version, but one of the four issued at the end of the Constitutent Assembly and definitely an incorrect one. Sound confusing? It certainly is, because how do I know which is the correct one? Until I find out and I am sure of the answer I will not correct what I wrote. Stay tuned….

Not only has the Chavez Government established price controls on hundrerds of items, but the prices at which the control ahs been set are in some cases those going back to the second quarter of last year, when the exchange rate was Bs. 1,000 per US$. The controls are being imposed at the same time the rate has been regulated at Bs. 1,600 to the US$. By regulated I mean there is an office that will hand out dollars, but there is no guarantee you will get them anyway. If you don’t you have to go to the black market, but if you are going to lose money you just give up and dont produce anything. Chavez seems to be trying all of the failed formulas of the 60’s and 70’s in Latin America. Problem is, we all lose.

In a decision that may be very important medium term, the Supreme Court said yesterday that the signatures for a recall referendum do not have to be collected after the date that the referendum is possible, but may be collected in advanced. This means that the signatures gathered on Feb. 2nd. can be used for the recall referendum of Presdent Cahvez. The Government had argued that they could not. In fact, the Vice President said Feb. 3d. that they were useless, because of the date they were obtained and the fact that they could not be audited, whatever that meant.

One of the arguments people abroad always use is: Why can’t you just wait until the recall referendum in August? My answer is simple: Why should I believe there will be a recall referendum in August? This is, of course, a very subjective opinion in my part, but it is based in the way that Chavez and his partisans have manipulated the law and the Constitution in the last four years to get their own way at every single instance. But now I can make a very solid argument.

According to Venezuela’s Constitution (article 75), the Deputies in the National Assembly can also be recalled at the midpoint of their period, which is five years. Since they were elected more than two and a half years ago, we should be able to do this the same way we “might” recall Chavez in August. The requirements are simple, you need 25% of the registered voters to sign a petition to recall the Deputy and then you need a similar number to show up and vote for the recall with a simple majority. So, at the Firmazo (Big sign-up)  on Feb 2nd. signatures were gathered to recall those Chavista Deputies elected individually in 2000. Below I show the names of the best known Deputies, the number of votes they received in their election in the year 2000 and the number that signed the petition to have them recalled two weeks ago.

                                 Votos received (2000)             Number who signed petition

Iris Varela                    14,998                                           32.282

Nicolas Maduro            26.360                                           45.720  

Tarek William Saab       26.710                                           44.136

Ramon Dario Vivas       43.110                                           56.754

Cilia Flores                   22.852                                           51.480                  

As you can see, in all cases more people signed for the recall than these Deputies even received votes for when elected. Thus, you might say: Easy, just submit the petitions and recall all of them!

Well, not quite. As usual everything is not what it seems in Venezuela. When the Consultative referendum was suspended by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, the Court sneaked in a prohibition to hold any form of election, until a decision is made or a new Electoral Commission is elected. There is no time limit for the Court to decide and Chavez’ MVR party controls whether to elect or not a new Electoral Commission. Thus, we can recall 30 Deputies because we have the signatures, but in this “democracy” there can be no elections until further notice. Some democracy, no? And then people wonder why I am skeptical that there will be a recall referendum in August!

Perhaps the most depressing part of the day was to have the Secretary General of the OAS, Cesar Gaviria say that there will be no agreement against violence this week, because the Opposition and the Government can’t agree on the wording. To me this sounds both depressing and ominous…..

The Head of the newly formed exchange control organization Cadivi, said today among many other things ” we should all pray so that the oil industry is brought back to normal and we can then have more dollars”. (How about bringing back the workers, we know it would work). Later he showed his ignorance when he said that the Brady bond exchange mechanism was suspended because it led to capital flight. This mechansim, by which you buy a Venezuelan Brady bond in local currency and sell it in the US for US$, does not constitute capital flight since you need someone doing exactly the opposite, so that the net result is simply zero. This is the man in charge!