The Devil's Excrement

The tanker “Pilin Leon” has become the beacon of the general strike of Venezuelan ships. Since its crew went on strike ten days ago, the Government has been trying to take it over. Essentially, the crew would accept another certified crew, but most are on strike anyway. Last night, the Government tried to take it over, but it was clear that the new crew did not qualify and they disembarked. Today, the National Guard brought another crew on board in an effort by the  Government to obtain a victory. This time the crew was made of Indians found through a headhunter. Unfortunately, the crew also did not meet the requirements because of their training, languages as well as regulations as to certifications in Venezuela.  They have disembarked by now.  Reportedly, the Venezuelan Navy refused to follow the orders of the President and thus the National Guard was used. The objection is not only political, but it is also a matter of sefaety as the Navy refused to do the type of commando operation that was performed twice in the last twenty four hours on the “Pilin Leon”

Hugo Chavez, in today’s address to the Nation, called on the Armed  Force NOT to recognize any decisions by civil Courts which contradict his decrees. As I said last night, these two decisions could become the “acid” test for those in the military that claim to be institutionalists. These two articles (1,2) have statements by lawyers blasting the Presdent for what he said. Note that Deputy Jose Luis Faria is a former Chavez supporter who split from Chavez almost a year ago. Clearly, Chavez believes he is above the laws and the Constitution, which we have known all along.

As Hugo Chavez continues to say that in Venezuela there is no strike but a conspiracy to oust him, approximately 1.5 million conspirators gathered in Caracas at a secret meeting held in the Autopista del Este, the Highway that crosses Caracas. The march was the largest so far, surpassing easily the one that ousted Chavez on April 11th. Keep in mind that the Metropolitan area of Caracas is estimated to have 3.5 million people at this time.

The atmosphere was absolutely festive as six separate marches from the East, West, North and South of the city converged at the Altamira Distributor of the eight lane highway that crosses the city from East to West. There were speeches, flags, songs, chants and the main theme was :”Hugo Chavez leave now”

Meanwhile, the Government continued to suffer setbacks on both the legal and the oil front. On the oil front, gasoline shortages became the norm in most of the country, Caracas seemed to be suffering the least, but no unleaded gas was to be found anywhere in the city. Meanwhile the President of PDVSA recognized that the company was at a standstill while roughly at the same time the Vice-President said things were going back to normal. Two gasoline trucks confiscated by the military overturned, one full of gas, the other one empty. The legal front was becoming interesting as two judgements by administartive Courts were not being followed by the Generals ordered to return private property in one case, and return all property of the Metropolitan Police to the Mayor in the other. Many high ranking Generals have been saying all along that they were “institutional”, a word that loses meaning when Generals disobey the rulings from civilian Courts. Watch this aspect of the crisis as it may become the clashing point between the Generals that still “support” the Chavez Presidency.

Below some pictures. Top row from the media, bottom rows, my own and Reuters.

In today’s El Nacional (page A-7), columnist Fausto Maso writes an article on media objectivity which I am sure is in response to yesterday’s press conference between the local media and foreign correspondents in which the objectivity of local media was repeatedly questioned. I took the liberty of translating it freely:

(Picture of yesterday’s march, an everyday affair)

The cowardice of false objectivity by Fausto Maso

Good reporting presents both sides of a story, it opens pages or microphones to diverse opinions, but it is not silenced when faced by a crime: it doesn’t confuse objectivity with complicity. Our Schools of Journalism, specially that of Universidad Central de Venezuela, always rejected the false objectivity which conceals that cowardice. The New York Times did not cross its arms on September 11 2001, nor do the American or British reporters go around the world looking for inteviews with Bin Laden and his followers, nor do they publish in front page their statements. In Spain they call ETA a terrorist organization. Great reporters never informed about Vietnam aseptically, neither are they neutral in Colombia with the guerrilla. They take sides. Some foreign correspondents belive innocently that in Venezuela two sides are facing each other in a civil war, they suppose that they are witnessing a fight between rich and poor. They are more lost than Lindbergh’s son! The threat against Venezuelans is genocide, the killing of unarmed civilians in the hands of those backed by the Government. What Cicil War? Pots against machine guns! You have got to be kidding me….Can we be neutral? Noooooooooo…

As usual, my friend Andy Webb-Vidal writes a good insightful article in the Financial Times about Venezuela. Some Excerpts:

“As pressure mounts, it seems all that stands between the former paratrooper and the implosion of his regime are the “Bolivarian Circles”, a highly mobile network of hardline supporters ready to descend from the barrios that ring the capital.”

“Members of Bolivarian Circles and the closely linked Tupamaros have already been in action this week, ransacking several television stations, apparently with impunity. Opponents of Mr Chávez have even alleged they are receiving training from Colombia’s Farc guerrillas, as well as from Cuban government agents. The government says the allegations are propaganda”

“If we don’t find a solution at the negotiating table, the differences will be settled on the street,” warned César Gaviria, the secretary- general of the OAS.

“If the situation deteriorates further the armed forces may again play the role of arbiter of last resort. According to General Enrique Medina, leader of a group of dissident officers, it is only a matter of time before a critical mass once more emerges within the military and the generals ask the president to resign”

“The dimension of the strike demonstrates that the country is no longer governable, the president can’t execute his threats, and so he’s showing real weakness,” said Alfredo Keller, a Caracas-based political analyst.

“The longer the government waits to recognise the crisis, the more likely it will be that the military is pushed into asking the president to resign, effectively a bloodless coup.”

The Venezuelan Government, which has been very good at selling internationally an image of the opposition and the media as “coupsters” or “terrorists” has begun to lose its image internationally this week. The Government suffered essentially three defeats:

-The Interamerican Human Rights Commission report blasted the Chavez Government all around.

-The U.S. drastically changed its position when The White House itself issued a press release calling for early elections as soon as possible.

-Venezuela’s proposed resolution at the OAS was rejected by the major Latin-American countries, including Brazil, Argentian, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador and Peru, together with Canada and the US. The US Ambassador to the OAS had harsh words for the Venezuelan proposal saying what was needed was a serious proposal. Caribbean nations under the CARICOM were in favor of the resolution, likely pressured by a Government that sells oil to them under preferential terms.

There are a number of reasons for this chain of events. First of all, the presence of Cesar Gaviria in Caracas for over a month has allowed the Secretary General of the OAS to see firsthand the behavior of teh Chavez administration. Second, the attack on the media on Tuesday night was seen by all of the Ambassadors in Caracas, who we are sure reported back to their own Government. Last, but not least, The Democratic Coordinator sent a team of highly respected lawyers with diplomatic experience to explain to all of the Amabassadors to the OAS the true situation in Venezuela, including documents and videos of what the Chavez administration has been doing.  

I view these events as defeats for the Government, rather than victories for the opposition. But we needed them, as when and if, Venezuelans resolve the current crisis, the opposition is going to need full international cooperation. The solution at this time is not even the consultative referendum that the Government continues to block. The negotiating table does not even consider this a negotiable item. The negotiation is now an amendment to the Constitution in the first quarter of 2003 under international supervision. However, the general strike is creating a situation where anything may happen in teh next few days unless the Government presents significant concessions over teh weekend.

“Negro” Sabater continues sending great pictures, I can’t put them all on, because the page would get very heavy. I liked this one of the dog with a sign that says: Even if you don’t believe it, we also say: ” Chavez leave now, we don’t want you here. You make more piles of shit than we do”

The Petroleum Situation in Venezuela – The US must take a long-term view

Antonio Guzman-Blanco

December 13, 2002

PDVSA employees have now burned their bridges; they will not falter, they will prevail.  Most probably, the government will not succeed in neutralizing the massive strike that began on December 2, and its effects on the economy.  It might take some time, but the PDVSA strike should ultimately rid us of Chavez.  Let’s not forget that the general strike that led to Milosevic’s departure lasted 11 days and the strike that rid Chile of Allende, lasted several weeks.  This government has a habit of putting a façade of normalcy on the direst situations; on April 11, both Chavez and Rangel were calmly and cynically saying “la situación en el país es de absoluta normalidad” (the situation in the country is absolutely normal), and we all know how April 11 ended.

However, before Chavez is gone, an ugly scene will probably materialize.  Chavez is hell-bent on producing violent conflicts and bloodshed in order to justify an even more savage repression.  He is doing this because he figures that violence will benefit him either way:  If he is successful in wiping out the opposition, he will entrench himself in power.  If he is perceived as having resigned as a result of violence, he can go back to his same old tune that says that he was the “victim of coupsters”.  On the other hand, if resigns peacefully, he believes that he will be perceived as a quitter and therefore, will be politically dead.

To this end, Hugo Chavez’ regime is actively involved in promoting state-sponsored terrorism.  He maintains close ties to the regimes in Libya, Iran and Iraq, and to international Marxist / drug trafficking, guerrilla terrorist organizations, who operate freely in Venezuela, have been inducted covertly into the military and who support his “revolution” (see article “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ ties to Terrorism” for further details).

Hugo Chavez is a threat to the security of the entire American continent.  His economic policies are destructive and only exacerbate poverty and the social tensions that go along wit it.  He is intent on establishing a Castro-Communist regime in Venezuela and extending it to the rest of Latin America – the entire US back yard.

His continuance in power will only derail the strategic interests of the United States.

At this time, it is very important for the US and Venezuela, that the US take a long term view of events in the Venezuelan petroleum industry.  Let us hope that the US doesn’t make the shortsighted mistake of backing Chavez in order to ensure a stable flow of oil (as Stratfor suggests).  It should be clear by now to the US, after TWO oil strikes within eight months, that Chavez can’t guarantee the supply of oil to the US, even if he intends to fulfill his obligations  (a doubtful proposition at best, given his track record of lies and broken promises and commitments).  As long as Chavez remains in power, oil strikes will be a recurring event.  The US is better off by backing a business-friendly, capitalistic government, whose strategic interests include strengthening, not destroying PDVSA, increasing production and getting out of OPEC.  Chavez represents the exact opposite.

Online newspaper Descifrado (needs password) is reporting that confessed gunman Joao de Goveia had a single bank account at Banco Provincial in Caracas with its highest deposit being 2.5 million Bs. (less that $2,000) and no deposit or withdrawal higher than Bs. 1 million (less than $800). Moreover, the man has not used the account since Dec. 31st. of last year. Clearly, somebody was supporting him, killing the “crazy, lone gunman” theory the Government is trying to sell.

Note added: The Head of the investigative police has now reported that clearly other guns were fired at Altamira Square last Friday, killing, once and for all, the crazy gunman theory carefully delineated by the President of Venezuela on his Sunday radio program.