The Devil's Excrement

Stratfor is not always right about Venezuela but in its latest report it says things like:

“Internationally mediated efforts to broker a peaceful outcome to Venezuela’s political crisis appear doomed to end in failure very soon, because Chavez is signaling that he will reject any agreement that threatens his hold on power.

For instance, the Nov. 14 takeover of the Caracas Metropolitan Police (PMC) by army and National Guard troops had two tactical objectives.

The first was to neutralize the PMC as a fighting force by seizing its command and control center and by taking physical control of its automatic weapons. The PMC’s nearly 9,000 officers could not match loyalist soldiers in firepower, but numerically they represented a threat the regime had to neutralize.

The second objective was to pre-position loyalist troops at critical PMC installations that could serve as field command posts and firebases if an urban conflict erupts between pro- and anti-Chavez military units. Now that these loyalist troops have been deployed throughout the city — and might find it difficult to re-enter Fort Tiuna if conflict breaks out — the police stations they seized could become their new temporary barracks.

Sources in Caracas tell Stratfor that Chavez also wants to seize control of other municipal police forces in the greater Caracas area, and in key states like Aragua and Carabobo.

Sources say the regime also is backed by several hundred well-armed civilian militia members in Caracas, who reportedly have received tactical and political training from loyalist FAN officers and clandestine Cuban advisers. These sources believe that an undetermined number of Colombian rebels also have infiltrated Venezuelan urban areas and may be prepared to support the regime in an armed confrontation.

The harder Chavez pushes to provoke a coup attempt, the more likely it is that his radical supporters will instigate the violence they’re trying to draw out from the opposition. Some tacticians among the opposition clearly hope Chavez will go too far and delegitimize his government with violent actions. If he exceeds democratic norms, he could be deposed and replaced with a transition regime that would have little or no difficulty obtaining recognition from the Bush administration.

Sources very close to dissident military leaders say that a violent clash between loyalist and anti-Chavez military forces easily could last a week, with hundreds of dead and wounded soldiers and civilians on both sides and substantial property damage if heavy weapons are used”

Scary stuff, I put it here because not everyone has access to Stratfor and if it happens, people should not be fooled into believing what the Government says.

Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel called Otto Reich, the US special envoy (or ex-envoy by now) for Latin America a “provocatour” saying Reich was either “irreponsable or a clown”. Reich’s crime? Simple, he said that he could not believe that Chavez was serious when he said that he would not resign even if 90% of the people voted against him in the proposed referendum. I am sure that Vice-President Rangel would have called any other Venezuelan President a clown if he had said what Chavez said. How times change, Rangel used to be the most critical reporter, accusing President and Governments of corruption, human rights violations and undemocratic ways, but now he supports Chavez’ every move with sharp words.

Speaking of clowns, President Chaves said today that, and I quote to make sure I am precise: “I have always looked for undersatnding between Venezuelans, even those that are against me”. Well, it is so incredible that he said that, that it actually seems like a joke. Nobody has created more hated among Venezuelans than Hugo Chavez, he has attacked everyone, dropped supporters and in general, has been the most divisionistic President of Venezuela in the last one hundred years. To me this statement simply shows that Chavez is just mentally unstable.

(You can find Otto Reich’s complete interview here)

Another good site for news of Venezuela’s political crisis is www.vcrisis.com, I have added the link to the resistance links on the left. The site is in English and is completely devoted to providing information about Venezuela and the truth of what is going on. Good job, good information!!

This picture is taken from vcrisis, as the Chinese say, a picture is worth one thousand words:

When Hugo Chavez says that he will not resign even if the opposition gets 90% of the vote in the referendum asking him to voluntarily resign, I cant help but think what a cynical pathological liar he is. Hugo Chavez’ only true belief is Hugo Chavez, he has gone back on almost everything he ever said he believed in, when he was a candidate or very popular. To me this sentence yesterday by our President is remarrkable because people seem to have forgotten about the Quebec Declaration. In April of 2001, the leaders of the American Continent met in Quebec, mostly to talk about setting a timetable for a free trade zone in the Americas called ALCA. Since Hugo Chavez could say little about whether ALCA was good or bad, he chose instead to put a sour note on the meeting by refusing to sign the declaration on the grounds that he did not believe in a representative democracy (the term used in it) but in a participatory democracy. Just so that it is clear I am not putting words in his mouth here is a quote about the event (incident?):

“The choice of Venezuela is not accidental. Alone among summit participants, Mr. Chavez refused to agree to parts of the final declaration, including passages that referred to “representative democracy.” He has sought to implement what he calls “participatory democracy” in Venezuela, downgrading the status of the legislature and making extensive use of popular consultations and referendums”

Of course, that was then, when it was convenient for him to disagree, be different. What is clear is that he does not care, he only cares about Hugo Chavez. To talk about participatory democracy was just a pose, like many others in Chavez’ life. Like when he said that he attempted a coup in 1992 to stop what was going on, while he had sworn a decade earlier to overthrow the Government. Or when he said that if in two years after being elected there were abandoned kids in the streets, he would resign. In fact, I have a video right here in this weblog where he says (twice!) that he would resign if people asked him to? Could it be any clearer than this? Chavez simply loves Hugo Chavez, as long as the people say they love him they rule, but if they don’t he knows better.

Anyone interested in the Venezuelan political crisis should read today’s interview with Didalco Bolivar in page D-1 of El Nacional. Governor Bolivar is a supporter of the President from what is called the “MAS-oficialista” or Podemos, a splinter group from Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) who kept supporting Chavez after MAS withdrew their support of the President. Bolivar essentially urges the President to allow the refeendum or elections, to use reason and not violence and says he refuses to accept any discussion about the Government interferring with municipal or state police forces.

What is important is that Governor Bolivar is saying these things. Up to now he had been a staunch supporter of Chavez and his Government and this clearly sounds like he is trying to separate himself from the Government’s actions (past and future). Combined with the little known fact that three Podemos Deputies (needed for a majority in any vote) did not attend National Assembly sessions this week, the message is quite important and significant.

Primero Justicia Deputy Carlos Ocariz made a list of the  attempts by Chavez and his partisans to boycott the possibility of a referendum as evidence that he is afraid of having it:

-Chavez’ MVR tried to block the process of signature collection destroying eight tents where the referendum drive was being held, removing the referendum form from newspaperes where it was distributed for free and destroying them.

-MVR’ bolivarian circles tried to destroy the signatures on the way to the National Electoral Commission.

-MVR has denounced the “illegality” of the signatures without presenting any evidence.

-A member of MVR was copying national identification numbers during the process of checking out the validity of the signatures, when caught he actually swallowed the piece of paper.

-The resignations of two members of Chavez’ MVR were accepted by the National Assembly as a way of making the CNE  inoperable with too few members. The resignations had taken place long ago, but no action was taken at the time.

-Chavez asked the Supreme Court to declare the new electoral power law unconstitutional and attempted to modified 41 articles of the bill, returning it to the National Assembly which was not legal.

-A former member of the CNE, who had taken other positions in Government since then and had actually been hired as a consultant by the CNE, attempted to occupy her position once more.

-The National Assembly named a new member of the CNE. Naming one member without two thirds majority is not within the power of the Assembly. the Assembly may replace all members at once only after a public call for candidates and two thirds majority.

-The Government asked the Supreme Justice to declare the referendum question illegal.

This is what Chavez and his MVR consider “fair play” and the “democratic system”.