Posts Tagged ‘hugo chavez’

No Mercosur for you, Hugo!

December 21, 2011

Despite pressures from the Government’s of Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina, as well as Hugo Chavez showing up at the Mercosur Summit, the much ballyhooed “political compromise” to allow Venezuela’s full membership in Mercosur, thankfully did not materialize. The political solution was simply to change the rules so that not all countries had to approve the country’s admission as a full member, bypassing in that way this requirement, which implies every single country is satisfied that the democratic standards are complied with by the country requesting admission.

But Paraguay would not play ball, not the Paraguayan opposition that refuses to approve Venezuela’s entry because they don’t believe the country satisfies the democratic requirements, but that country’s Government, likely fearful of the reaction by the opposition if they are bypassed.

Shame on Dilma Rouseff for backing this proposal. The Brazilian President was a victim of abusive Governments, but seems to feel naively they can not come back in her lifetime to haunt her. I hope she is right, but allowing abuses to continue in one country will simply allow all countries in the region to relax the defense of human rights and this will eventually lead to a backlash against those that allowed it.

Meanwhile, Hugo comes back to Caracas (or direct to Havana for treatment during Christmas?) having lost the battle that he decided to play with a full court press, including his physical presence in Montevideo, where he blamed power and obscure forces for the delay in Venezuela’s entry into Mercosur.

A victory for Paraguay, a small country battling giants, something Chavez would have hailed two decades ago.

A victory for Venezuelans, who at least know that Chavez will have to watch what he does to keep the pretense of democracy.

A loss for the leaders of those countries trying to make the defense of human rights more “flexible” , all “left wing” leaders who now that they have attained power have forgotten their fights when others abused their rights. But they will try it again, if Hugo’s health gives them a chance.

But for now: No Mercosur for you, Hugo!

The Curious Downfall of the Heir Apparent to Hugo Chavez

December 17, 2011

It was one of the biggest political surprises of the last few months, if not years, when Hugo Chavez announced that his Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, would be the candidate for Governor of Carabobo State in 2012. Maduro had been considered Chavez’ heir apparent if it became necessary for the Venezuelan President to step aside in 2012 due to health reasons. In fact, many people, including yours truly, believed that Chavez would name Maduro as his Vice-President some time in the very near future, replacing Elias Jaua, who is not popular among various Chavista factions.

That all was not well in Maduro-land was barely noticeable last week when his wife, Cilia Flores, was replaced in the leadership of Chavez’ political party PSUV by none other than Diosdado Cabello, once also considered Chavez’  clear successor. But Flores had been in the doghouse for a while, as she had been removed early in 2011, before Chavez’ illness surfaced, as President of the Venezuelan National Assembly.

It was unclear why the sudden change of heart for Maduro, who had been acting in roles beyond that of Foreign Minister, including being the main speaker at a service held for Hugo Chavez in Manhattan and being part of the commission studying the changes to the new Labor Law. Maduro was also the only Cabinet Minister to go back and forth between Caracas and La Habana, when Hugo Chavez received treatment for his cancer in that city between June and September.

Chavez’ announcement was made the day after Maduro received an ovation that apparently irked the President, but I am sure there is much more to the story. For now, Chavez is in the search for a new Vice-President, with most betting that it will remain all in the family with his son in law, Jorge Arreaza, the current Minister of Science and Technology, being named Vice-President early in 2012*. His current Vice-President Elias Jaua, had already been nominated as candidate for Governor of Miranda State by Chavez a few months ago in what was believed to be an elegant way of disposing of Jaua.

Chavez is making daily changes to his entourage, with rumors that new important military appointments will be made soon. For now, none of the groups fighting for power feels they hold in a solid position, as the downfall of the heir apparent may simply be a signal by Chavez that he has yet to make his mind up. When he does, Maduro may be back, in another sideways move by the Venezuelan President.

*I don’t think that Arreaza can be Vice-President if I understand what “parentesco por afinidad” means in Art. 238 of the Venezuelan Constitution, which bans the VP from being related by blood and/or affinity to the President. I believe, but I am not 100% sure that Chavez is related to Arreaza by affinity.

How Did Crime In Venezuela Ever Get to Where It Is today?

December 12, 2011

It was 1988, Venezuelans were truly upset about crime. Imagine that! That year, there were all of 1,600 homicides in Venezuela, all of 9 homicides for 100,000 people.(I am using Veneconomy statistics)

Then came the Caracazo, the violence of that fateful day made numbers soar and that year, the number of homicides soared to 2,513. The coups in 1992 did not help numbers, 3,336 people were killed in 1992, doubled the number of 1988. And with it, gave way to the outrage and dissatisfaction that led to Hugo Chavez being elected. By the time Hugo came to power, 4,500 people were killed in Venezuela in 1998.

Today, the National observatory for Violence says there were 17.600 homicides in 2010, 57 deaths for each 100,000 inhabitants.

Almost seven times as much as of 1988 (per inhabitant)

Almost triple (per inhabitant) than when Chavez got to power.

These are homicides, the actual killing of a human being. Say nothing about the increase of theft, kidnappings or petty crime. The Government and people don’t even look or think about those numbers.

But look at the other side. According to the same Veneconomy numbers, when in 1998, the year before Hugo Chavez became President, the police made 118 arrests for each 100 homicides. Yes, they would detain more suspects than crimes, but they would be released.

Today that number is down significantly. How much?

Venezuelan police detains nine suspects for each 100 homicides.

That’s right. For each 100 people that lose their life only NINE are detained, many released when they are found not be involved.

Can Chavez be blamed for this?

You bet!

To begin with, he was the guy who refused to swear he would uphold the old Constitution, Yes, he created a new one, but he seems to have ignored it olympically.

But for 12 years, Chavez simply minimized security as an important issue. He dismantled a fairly competent police management created over the years, replacing them with former or active military with no clue as to how to fight or control crime. Meanwhile Chavez even justified stealing if you are hungry, much the way the Supreme Court decided to decriminalize invasions of private property today.

A prelude of new things to come.The end result will be the same, until the invaders take over the Justice’s property.And they will.

Meanwhile, the fight against crime becomes a struggle. Start with the numbers of weapons. After 13 year without control (and it wasn’t great before that!) the number of pistols, rifles and the like has also tripled. Unless you go and try to reduce that, there will be no progress.

Follow that with jails as full as they have ever been, where the jailed are innocent, half guilty and guilty, but now they all train for a new career in crime under one single roof. Ready for the real world next time the Minister for Prisons decides to lighten up the numbers.

Or take a Justice system that follows now the orders of the big honcho, jailing all those that make it alive to the prison. Yes, Hugo has discovered the crime problem and the cops are dealing with it the most effective political way: Kill them!

Do I need to go on? Not really. In the end, the question is not how we got here, but how do we get out of this?

Which goes back to Daniels’ question: Why do these opposition guys/gals want to be  President?