The Devil's Excrement

All of a sudden the Chavismo has chosen religion as the object of their attack. Besides last week’s attack in Plaza Altamira, in Cardon, where PDVSA’s largest refinery is located, four images of the virgin were vandalized and broken into pieces. Separataly a Molotov cocktail was thrown in a church in the city of Los Teques near Caracas. I can not understand why all of a sudden there is this attack on religion. These attacks are no longer random, and they certainly will not help raise Chavez’ popularity. In Falcon state, religious groups held a 14 Km. march last night towards a sanctuary in La Vela de Coro.

Note added: And another report of two more images damaged

All of a sudden the Chavismo has chosen religion as the object of their attack. Besides last week’s attack in Plaza Altamira, in Cardon, where PDVSA’s largest refinery is located, four images of the virgin were vandalized and broken into pieces. Separataly a Molotov cocktail was thrown in a church in the city of Los Teques near Caracas. I can not understand why all of a sudden there is this attack on religion. These attacks are no longer random, and they certainly will not help raise Chavez’ popularity. In Falcon state, religious groups held a 14 Km. march last night towards a sanctuary in La Vela de Coro.

Note added: And another report of two more images damaged

The President of the Electoral Board said today they are shielded against outside influence. These are the reasons he gave:

-All workers veryfiying the sigantures were part of the teams that did a similar job in the last four presidential elections (CAP, Caldera, Chavez, Chavez…ummm all beging with C, maybe we should look for a Z)

-In each computer there will be a person that transcribes, one that verifies, a representative from the OAS, a representative from the Carter Center, a representative from the Chavismo, a representative from the opposition…..sounds like a complete set to me.

This sounds full proof, the question is only what will the Chavistas say after the signatures are validated.

I did not want to talk about this, but it happened, it was very real, religious and politics do not mix (or should not mix) but through the genius of Weil my feelings are represented:

The pretty revolution…..long live Chavez 2021…..

Former Chavez comrade in the 1992 coup, Presidential candidate (against Chavez!) and former Governor of Zulia state Francisco Arias Cardenas of the party Union, proposed today that former Minister of Planning and Presidential candidate for Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) Teodoro Petkoff (Editor of Tal Cual) should be the opposition candidate for the transition after the recall referendum. Petkoff, an economist, did a very good job under very difficult economic circumstances during the last years of the Caldera Government. Petkoff speaks bluntly and is not charismatic, but he would appeal to both the pro-Chavez and anti-Chavez forces in the country. He would seem to be an ideal choice, thus he will unlikely be nominated. Petkoff applied very simple common sense rules during his tenure in planning, but if I had to name one Minister that I agreed the most with in the last twenty years, it would have to be him. Personally, I think that if the opposition manages a consensus around him, it could precipitate a Chavez resignation. Petkoff has been critical of both the Government and the opposition and has had an important influence in some of Chavez’ decisions, such as changing the economic Cabinet after April 2002. The idea makes so much sense that it is unlikely to be adopted in the best Macondo style of our country.

In today’s editorial, as an example, Petkoff points out how it would be impossible to commit fraud in the petition dirve on the scale that Chavez and his collaborators want to claim. He points out each possible type of cheating, noting how it would be impossible to do under the current rules or would simply be an illegal signature. There can be no duplicate signatures, no fake forms or no illegal signatures, thus, he states, to try to find fraud is silly and this argument will collapse as the CNE checks the sigantures. As pointed out here before, the process was made so complicated, that it is almots impossible to cheat,  so the ball is in the Government’s court. And in one month it will be, the question is what will they say then. No matter what anyone may think 3.6 million signatures are simply too many…

While accusations have flown back and forth between the Government and the opposition on pressures to sign or not to sign, the most relevant case to date was that of the Governor of Falcon state who kicked out sixty employees for signing against Hugo Chavez. This would not be news, except that the Legislative Assembly of that state voted unanimously today to censor the Governor and ask him to hire back the fired workers. Obviously, both pro and anti Chavez workers voted in favor of this resolution. Some interpret this as fairness, others simply say that some pro-Chavez politicians want to make sure they land on the correct side after the recall vote. (Note that there is a presidential decree in effect since June that prohibits firings, dumb decree, but who cares anyway)

Interesting poll in today’s Tal Cual asking people what weighed the most in signing to recall Hugo Chavez. The main reason, for which 55.25% of the more than six thousand people polled responded was the economic crisis. Surprisingly (at least to me) was the second reason: 41.69% said that the division and high polarization of Venezuelan Society was the important factor. 3.06% said that they wanted Chavez to go away, with his nationwide addresses, so they could watch their soap operas and baseball games in peace. Clearly “the poor” know where reality lies.

A lot has happened during my absence from blogging (Sorry for the hiatus, I am back now), but in reality nothing has really changed. Hugo Chávez continues to look for a way out of a reacll referendum, but it appears to be too late for that. I never understood why Chavez was allowing the petition drive to take place. Basically he believed his advisers that told him that with all the tricks in the way and all the requirements anddifficulties it would be almost impossible for the opposition to gather the required signatures. Now that they have been collected, Chavez wants a way out, but the doors are closing rapidly. Before the signature drive, the CNE and the Government had said repeatedly that no foreign technical advisers would be allowed to oversee the process of collecting the signatures. Something changed in the last month, most likely the charges of fraud by Chavez and his Government, while international observers and the military saw with their own eyes the successful drive by the opposition. This simply means that it will be essentially impossible to invalidate the more than one million signatures that need to be invalidated for the referendum not to take place. Thus, the invitation by the Head of teh CNE to teh OAS and the Carter Centaer to oversee the verification of signatures becomes a very significant event.

Chavez’ words yesterday that if the CNE allowed the referendum to go forward he would not accept it are simply hollow words. He no longer has the mandate or the power to not recognize it and the CNE will have no recourse but to approve the recall referendum. That is why now the Chavistas are inventing new criteria, such as the digitization of all of the fingerprints in order to validate them. They are trying to invent a new concept beyond the what our democracy really is. If they think there was fraud, or that some signatures were faked, the most direct way of proving it simply be for the referendum to take place. Venezuelan elections have fewer requirements and are fairer than the recent petition process invented to stop the opposition from recalling Chavez.

The opposition will submit all of its signatures this week (Curiously, the Chavistas have yet to hand in all of theirs). Within a month the CNE will rule on the validity of the opposition signatures. Chavez claims that he will not accept it if the CNE recognizes the signatures. The opposition will not accept that more than a million signatures be invalidated on some made up technicality and neither will the international observers. If the number of signatures is there, and they are there by far, the CNE will be forced to approve the recall referendum. Then Chavez will try to change the way that process works, to no avail. In the end, Chavez’ statements continue to show that after five years in power Hugo Chávez still does not understand that he is not the law and that there is such a thing as separation of powers. Combine that with the fact that he likes to micromanage (He actually said he wanted to check the signatures himself) and the huge failure of his Government can easily be understood. At this point, attacking the CNE will do little for his popularity and not recognizing the recall referendum is simply not an option. There will be a recall referendum and Hugo Chavez mandate wil be recalled, his worst option is not to allow and he knows it.