The Devil's Excrement

Things continue to be confusing. The proposal to disqualify all signatures in forms in which the data was filled with the same handwriting (so called “planas”) continues to be discussed while lawyers openly say everything in Venezuela is illegal, because people just signed the Constitution, their birth certificate, their marriage certificate and any notarized paper, since they were all written by long hand before not too distant date by someone different than those signing and by PC’s and typewriters since.

But a fairly interesting proposal was made today by Enrique Ochoa Antich. Essentially he suggested that in order not to violate the rights of those that did sign, what the CNE should do is publish the list of those that signed, whether the handwriting is of the same type for both the data and the signature or not and those that did not sign. but do appear in it, can go to the CNE and say their signature was faked.

I think this is a very fair solution. First of all, it does indeed respect the will of those that signed in good faith without filling out the data part as the regulation say. Second, if there was the massive scale fraud that Chavez and his supporters claim, it would be revealed immediately as thousands would show up if their accusations are true. Third, if neither the opposition nor the pro-Chavez “planas” forms are bad, then the number of people that would show up would be minimal, simplifying the process. Finally, this would follow the spirit of the regulations that talks about “repairing” the record if errors were made.

Now, if the Chavistas really believe there was fraud, they should not be afraid of this proposal, it is fair to the people, allows their point to be proven and would make the opposition look really bad. What excuse will they use this time?

Things continue to be confusing. The proposal to disqualify all signatures in forms in which the data was filled with the same handwriting (so called “planas”) continues to be discussed while lawyers openly say everything in Venezuela is illegal, because people just signed the Constitution, their birth certificate, their marriage certificate and any notarized paper, since they were all written by long hand before not too distant date by someone different than those signing and by PC’s and typewriters since.

But a fairly interesting proposal was made today by Enrique Ochoa Antich. Essentially he suggested that in order not to violate the rights of those that did sign, what the CNE should do is publish the list of those that signed, whether the handwriting is of the same type for both the data and the signature or not and those that did not sign. but do appear in it, can go to the CNE and say their signature was faked.

I think this is a very fair solution. First of all, it does indeed respect the will of those that signed in good faith without filling out the data part as the regulation say. Second, if there was the massive scale fraud that Chavez and his supporters claim, it would be revealed immediately as thousands would show up if their accusations are true. Third, if neither the opposition nor the pro-Chavez “planas” forms are bad, then the number of people that would show up would be minimal, simplifying the process. Finally, this would follow the spirit of the regulations that talks about “repairing” the record if errors were made.

Now, if the Chavistas really believe there was fraud, they should not be afraid of this proposal, it is fair to the people, allows their point to be proven and would make the opposition look really bad. What excuse will they use this time?

I was surprised by the sharp drop in book exports from Spain to Venezuela in 2003. According to the Spanish Ministry of Commerce, book exports from that country dropped by 75% in 2003 over 2002. Spain is Venezuela’s largest supplier of books. Depressing…

There is no question in my mind now that the Chavez Government is getting ready to commit the biggest rip off in our democratic history. That these people have no scruples is being proven daily by the many decisions of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), the way the three pro-Chavez Directors are acting and the attempt to disqualify two million signatures of the petition gathered by the opposition last November 28^th. to December1st.

People are losing perspective when discussing what is going on. First of all, people seem to forget what the role of the petition for the referendum is supposed to be. For God’s sake, this is not a vote, this is only a petition! But the requirements established are tougher than for a real vote!

I would like to remind everyone that there were two ways for gathering the signatures: In the poll booths established for that effect and the so called “itinerant” gatherers who went around visiting hospitals, old people and those scared to be seen signing the petition in public places. Under the apparently insurmountable rules established by the CNE for this process, each polling station had to have Chavista witnesses. Each itinerant gatherer had to be accompanied by a Chavista witness. Each day, at the end of the day, the polling station or itinerant member had to put a cover to all forms and the signatures gathered in them and sign off the totals for the day. The forms were made in special paper. They had serial numbers.

So, if the CNE really believed that there was this mega fraud that Chavez and his cohorts are accusing the opposition for, they should look no further than the Chavista witnesses who signed the cover forms each day. The only way for the opposition to have manufactured this million plus signatures would have been to forge the signatures of these witnesses who, by the way, had received special training by the CNE.

But these people don’t want to play fair. They have been creating obstacles, writing new regulations, changing the rules and dealing behind the scenes from day one. Can anyone really believe that Jorge Rodriguez is impartial when he publicly even questioned the agreement signed by the Government and the opposition under the auspices of the OAS? First, nobody asked him. Second, the agreements are there and it seems at best inappropriate fro the Director of the CNE to even say anything about it.

And then as if this was not enough, all of a sudden the Government begins asking for even more international observers. I agree that the more the merrier when it comes for international observation of electoral processes. But the time to invite them was at the beginning, not in the tenth inning of a game with variable rules and a ball which randomly changes size each inning.

The problem is that most people even forget that both Gaviria and Carter were originally invited by the Chavez administration. In fact, those that talked with the OAS Secretary General during his first visit were amazed at his naiveté with respect to the Chavez administration and the events of April 2002 But he learned fast when he decided to stay to “solve” the Venezuelan conflict. Except he learned where the bad faith was coming from and he realized on which side true democracy laid.

The same is true of the Carter Center, which never truly explained whether the Chavez administration had or not given a sizable donation to its projects. In the then words of the same Jennifer McCoy that today goes to the CNE and is amazed by the attempt to eliminate more than a million signatures by the opposition: “The Carter Center has not received any donation related to its activities in Venezuela”. Get it? The money could have gone to unrelated activities, but I stray from my point.

But all of a sudden, Gaviria, Carter, McCoy, Diez are all enemies. They question everything the CNE does or attempts to do. They privately threaten to leave if the cheating continues. So, it is time to get rid of them. The story of Chavez’ life, invite, use, get rid of them. Ask MAS, Lameda, Miquilena, Esqueda, Chaderton(?), Rosendo and so many others!. Now he is going international. Watch out foreign debt bondholders you are on his list, but first he needs to get rid of Nobrega!

And then we come to the good old USA, which mostly ignored Chavez for his first few years in office until the TACO event took place. (Temporary Absence of Constitutional Order)*. Ever since TACO, everyone wants to get the USA involved. But yesterday Chavez said not only did it get involved, but it was responsible for the blood. Tell that to the millions of Venezuelans that marched that day. Unless the Irishly-disappeared-Puente El Llaguno shooters were CIA, working for Bernal, it is hard for the US to have been that involved.

But it has worked for Fidel, why not for Hugo, attack those damn Yankees for signing A-Rod! (sorry, wrong game), killing Venezuelans or whatever. At least the A-Rod part it’s true. Of course, this is simply Cuban advice, attack the US, you will gain popularity. Except that Fidel took over in Cuba when TV was as much of a dream as ubiquitous broadband is today, Disney was Fantasia and Dalmatians and MacDonald’s was a Scottish name or a guy who had a farm in some song. It may not work here, where most people somehow like the US, to the consternation of the French, despite Bush, Clinton and Don King.

So, the strategy seems to be delay, fight, delay, fight and long for the day when if Chavez is recalled, Jose Vicente will become President, he will appoint Chavez as VP, will resign and we will get Chavez back in twenty four hours. Sound far fetched? So did questioning 70% of the signatures two weeks ago.

But seriously, the CNE appears to want not to invalidate the signatures in the forms with the same handwriting (planas), but instead have anyone that signed but does not appear in the lists show up during a five day period and scream: I did sign the first time! Of course, we need two weeks to plan it out (15 days), first we will do it for the Chavista recall of opposition Deputies (five days), we will rest for five days (five days) and then we will do it for the President’s recall. (Five days).

Now, nobody says anything about how the CNE will evaluate those that said they signed, what somebody else wrote out with their signature and fingerprint. Do we have to make up new rules? What if there is a plana of a plana? Do we use witnesses? Who verifies? Who counts? Do we do it base two or ten? Do we publish the list of those who said they had signed, to say they had signed, what they had not filled, but signed? Or should we just be democratic and believe them? We may be talking 2007 or 2021…

And then, there is a very sensible proposal by the OAS. Let’s hire some fingerprint verifiers abroad.  Have them do a sample. Discard within statistical errors that the fingerprints were forged. Move forward. Too sensible? Of course! These OAS and Carter technocrats make Chavez feel much like PDVSA technocrats did in the good old days. Statistics! Errors! Profits! Production! Money! Votes! Prosperity! Democracy! Justice! Humbug!

The people don’t want any of that. They simply want Hugo Chavez! Why vote on it? Isn’t it obvious? It’s a landslide, so why bother?

*Told you I would use it some day!

There is no question in my mind now that the Chavez Government is getting ready to commit the biggest rip off in our democratic history. That these people have no scruples is being proven daily by the many decisions of the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), the way the three pro-Chavez Directors are acting and the attempt to disqualify two million signatures of the petition gathered by the opposition last November 28^th. to December1st.

People are losing perspective when discussing what is going on. First of all, people seem to forget what the role of the petition for the referendum is supposed to be. For God’s sake, this is not a vote, this is only a petition! But the requirements established are tougher than for a real vote!

I would like to remind everyone that there were two ways for gathering the signatures: In the poll booths established for that effect and the so called “itinerant” gatherers who went around visiting hospitals, old people and those scared to be seen signing the petition in public places. Under the apparently insurmountable rules established by the CNE for this process, each polling station had to have Chavista witnesses. Each itinerant gatherer had to be accompanied by a Chavista witness. Each day, at the end of the day, the polling station or itinerant member had to put a cover to all forms and the signatures gathered in them and sign off the totals for the day. The forms were made in special paper. They had serial numbers.

So, if the CNE really believed that there was this mega fraud that Chavez and his cohorts are accusing the opposition for, they should look no further than the Chavista witnesses who signed the cover forms each day. The only way for the opposition to have manufactured this million plus signatures would have been to forge the signatures of these witnesses who, by the way, had received special training by the CNE.

But these people don’t want to play fair. They have been creating obstacles, writing new regulations, changing the rules and dealing behind the scenes from day one. Can anyone really believe that Jorge Rodriguez is impartial when he publicly even questioned the agreement signed by the Government and the opposition under the auspices of the OAS? First, nobody asked him. Second, the agreements are there and it seems at best inappropriate fro the Director of the CNE to even say anything about it.

And then as if this was not enough, all of a sudden the Government begins asking for even more international observers. I agree that the more the merrier when it comes for international observation of electoral processes. But the time to invite them was at the beginning, not in the tenth inning of a game with variable rules and a ball which randomly changes size each inning.

The problem is that most people even forget that both Gaviria and Carter were originally invited by the Chavez administration. In fact, those that talked with the OAS Secretary General during his first visit were amazed at his naiveté with respect to the Chavez administration and the events of April 2002 But he learned fast when he decided to stay to “solve” the Venezuelan conflict. Except he learned where the bad faith was coming from and he realized on which side true democracy laid.

The same is true of the Carter Center, which never truly explained whether the Chavez administration had or not given a sizable donation to its projects. In the then words of the same Jennifer McCoy that today goes to the CNE and is amazed by the attempt to eliminate more than a million signatures by the opposition: “The Carter Center has not received any donation related to its activities in Venezuela”. Get it? The money could have gone to unrelated activities, but I stray from my point.

But all of a sudden, Gaviria, Carter, McCoy, Diez are all enemies. They question everything the CNE does or attempts to do. They privately threaten to leave if the cheating continues. So, it is time to get rid of them. The story of Chavez’ life, invite, use, get rid of them. Ask MAS, Lameda, Miquilena, Esqueda, Chaderton(?), Rosendo and so many others!. Now he is going international. Watch out foreign debt bondholders you are on his list, but first he needs to get rid of Nobrega!

And then we come to the good old USA, which mostly ignored Chavez for his first few years in office until the TACO event took place. (Temporary Absence of Constitutional Order)*. Ever since TACO, everyone wants to get the USA involved. But yesterday Chavez said not only did it get involved, but it was responsible for the blood. Tell that to the millions of Venezuelans that marched that day. Unless the Irishly-disappeared-Puente El Llaguno shooters were CIA, working for Bernal, it is hard for the US to have been that involved.

But it has worked for Fidel, why not for Hugo, attack those damn Yankees for signing A-Rod! (sorry, wrong game), killing Venezuelans or whatever. At least the A-Rod part it’s true. Of course, this is simply Cuban advice, attack the US, you will gain popularity. Except that Fidel took over in Cuba when TV was as much of a dream as ubiquitous broadband is today, Disney was Fantasia and Dalmatians and MacDonald’s was a Scottish name or a guy who had a farm in some song. It may not work here, where most people somehow like the US, to the consternation of the French, despite Bush, Clinton and Don King.

So, the strategy seems to be delay, fight, delay, fight and long for the day when if Chavez is recalled, Jose Vicente will become President, he will appoint Chavez as VP, will resign and we will get Chavez back in twenty four hours. Sound far fetched? So did questioning 70% of the signatures two weeks ago.

But seriously, the CNE appears to want not to invalidate the signatures in the forms with the same handwriting (planas), but instead have anyone that signed but does not appear in the lists show up during a five day period and scream: I did sign the first time! Of course, we need two weeks to plan it out (15 days), first we will do it for the Chavista recall of opposition Deputies (five days), we will rest for five days (five days) and then we will do it for the President’s recall. (Five days).

Now, nobody says anything about how the CNE will evaluate those that said they signed, what somebody else wrote out with their signature and fingerprint. Do we have to make up new rules? What if there is a plana of a plana? Do we use witnesses? Who verifies? Who counts? Do we do it base two or ten? Do we publish the list of those who said they had signed, to say they had signed, what they had not filled, but signed? Or should we just be democratic and believe them? We may be talking 2007 or 2021…

And then, there is a very sensible proposal by the OAS. Let’s hire some fingerprint verifiers abroad.  Have them do a sample. Discard within statistical errors that the fingerprints were forged. Move forward. Too sensible? Of course! These OAS and Carter technocrats make Chavez feel much like PDVSA technocrats did in the good old days. Statistics! Errors! Profits! Production! Money! Votes! Prosperity! Democracy! Justice! Humbug!

The people don’t want any of that. They simply want Hugo Chavez! Why vote on it? Isn’t it obvious? It’s a landslide, so why bother?

*Told you I would use it some day!

About ten days ago, I quoted from an article by Francisco Faraco, a bank analyst on the financial time bomb facing the banking system. Today, Victor Salmeron, without any doubt the best local reporter of the economic beat, interviews Faraco in El Universal, touching up on many subjects. This post may be a little long, but I want to make sure people understand all of the implications of what he is saying.

The article begins by pointing out that the Central Bank on January 23d. said referring to the controversy about the Central Bank handing over US$ 1 billion to the Government: “the public sector has deposits in the banking system that amount to Bs. 13.47 trillion”

Now, let us first understand this number. Bs. 13.47 trillion is US$ 8.41 billion at the exchange rate that prevailed for much of 2003 and was in effect on the day the Central Bank pointed this out. Now, the country’s budget in 2003 was US$ 22.8 billion and all of the deposits of the banking system amount to US$ 33.8.Thus, as the article points out, the public sector maintains in the banking system 37% of the 2003 budget and 25% of all of the deposits in the banking system.

Let’s continue the logic. This means that 37% of the public budget was not spent. Moreover, last year the Government had to issue Bs. 10 trillion in binds at 25-30% interest, in order to finance its spending. Get it? The Government has US$ 8.41 billion in the bank getting interest rates of 13-16%, while it borrows at 25-30% rates to be able to give money to the same institutions that have those deposits. Would you do that?

Historically, the ratio of deposits to budget, according to Faraco, has been around 2-3%, now it stands at 37%.

The first question to Faraco is why is it that the Central Bank talks about Bs. 13.47 trillion (US$8.41 billion), while the balance sheet of the banking system says it is only Bs. 4.4 trillion (US$ 2.75 billion). Faraco answers that a lot of the money is under trusts or securities endorsed to the public institutions.

Let me explain this point. The Bs.4.4 trillion is that deposited directly under the name of public institutions at banks. Additionally, these public institutions may open a trust for a public institution or have the bank endorse a public debt bond over to the public institution. This is done to be able to pay more interest, as neither trusts nor these endorsed securities force the banks to have special reserves, at no interest, at the Central Bank which is imposed on public deposits.

Now, let me explain something else. The world of public deposits is a world of corruption via commissions. Many banks have to pay part of the spread somehow in order to capture these deposits. This means that these US$ 8.41 billion generate huge amounts for those that receive these commissions. Note also that these are paid regularly, as most of these are short term deposits rarely above thirty days.

If you have a dirty mind (God forbid!) you may even think that the only reason for the dramatic increase in public debt was simply to generate these commissions. You will probably be right. The only thing I don’t really know is whether some individuals are getting rich or the revolution is being financed. My guess is that it is actually both, but I have no way of knowing it or proving it.

If you think this is too perverse, listen to what Faraco literally says: “it has been the State that has funded the banks so they can buy its own debt and hang on the country an over issuing of debt, this loots the country and I propose the Comptroller….the external auditors that never reflected anything, the Finance Committee of the Assembly as well as the bankers, give an explanation”

If by now you are not outraged enough, then Faraco continues referring to the fact that the Government now wants to swap this Bolivar denominated debt for US dollars: “They over indebted us and now they want to swap that for debt in hard currency?”

Note that that of one of the main beneficiaries of this perversity is the banking system, which is presided by the same “oligarchs” that the Government and some readers of this blog are always blaming for all the country’s problems. Some people in both the Government and the banking system are getting VERY rich, but the supporters of the revolution say nothing. Why? These are the same perversities of the IVth. Republic, except that have been magnified in size by three orders of magnitude!

This is what the impunity of this Government has led us to. This is what happens when a country has no checks and balances. This is incredibly obscene. The country is being sold, looted and mortgaged for a fistful of dollars or bolivars. Long live the “pretty” revolution!

When things look bleak, I like to read Teodoro Petkoff. If he is also feeling bleak I worry, if he is not, I feel slightly better. Thus, today’s Editorial made me feel slightly better and seemed like a quote from it would go well with the pictures above of Saturday’s march sent in by Jose Gregorio. These images are actually like a Kilomter from the end of the march. Some quotes from today’s Tal Cual Editorial (by subscription only):

“The giant rally last Saturday left two un-buriable bodies on the side of the road: the coupsters and the self-coupsters. Still not buried, it’s true, but now more difficult to resurrect”

“The opposition is stepping on, without ambiguities, on the terrain of constitutionality and legality, while Chavez slids towards the field of unconstitutionality and illegality. The rope of constitutionality is asphyxiating him with greater and greater strength. “

“There were CNE witnesses in all poll booths, pro-Chavze witnesses and the presence of the military. In whose head can it fit that such an operation could be done without anyone noticing? The itinerant signature collectors were accompanied by people from the other side. They did not notice that they were copying different names? But let’s imagine that with the advice of David Copperfield, such an act of magic was performed. Then, it would be quite probable that many of these same names transcribed in the same signature forms (planas) would correspond to people that did sign in real life, in which case, they could be easily detected by the computers. Anyway you look at it the argument of these forms can not be sustained.

“There is no reason then to lose your head or your patience. Of the Constitution, one can say what they say about God: It punishes without a stick and without sending anyone. Chávez is beginning to feel it in his ribs”

Hope he is right; at least he made me feel a tiny bit better about things!

When things look bleak, I like to read Teodoro Petkoff. If he is also feeling bleak I worry, if he is not, I feel slightly better. Thus, today’s Editorial made me feel slightly better and seemed like a quote from it would go well with the pictures above of Saturday’s march sent in by Jose Gregorio. These images are actually like a Kilomter from the end of the march. Some quotes from today’s Tal Cual Editorial (by subscription only):

“The giant rally last Saturday left two un-buriable bodies on the side of the road: the coupsters and the self-coupsters. Still not buried, it’s true, but now more difficult to resurrect”

“The opposition is stepping on, without ambiguities, on the terrain of constitutionality and legality, while Chavez slids towards the field of unconstitutionality and illegality. The rope of constitutionality is asphyxiating him with greater and greater strength. “

“There were CNE witnesses in all poll booths, pro-Chavze witnesses and the presence of the military. In whose head can it fit that such an operation could be done without anyone noticing? The itinerant signature collectors were accompanied by people from the other side. They did not notice that they were copying different names? But let’s imagine that with the advice of David Copperfield, such an act of magic was performed. Then, it would be quite probable that many of these same names transcribed in the same signature forms (planas) would correspond to people that did sign in real life, in which case, they could be easily detected by the computers. Anyway you look at it the argument of these forms can not be sustained.

“There is no reason then to lose your head or your patience. Of the Constitution, one can say what they say about God: It punishes without a stick and without sending anyone. Chávez is beginning to feel it in his ribs”

Hope he is right; at least he made me feel a tiny bit better about things!

Everyone should read this piece about how the National Institute of Land has ripped off poor people in Barlovento. Not only is the town doing worse, but people have actually had their property taken away. Some were asked to move to new houses, except the new ones would not be theirs, so they preferred to stay in their old mud houses. A true horror story from the revolution.

Everyone should read this piece about how the National Institute of Land has ripped off poor people in Barlovento. Not only is the town doing worse, but people have actually had their property taken away. Some were asked to move to new houses, except the new ones would not be theirs, so they preferred to stay in their old mud houses. A true horror story from the revolution.