The Devil's Excrement

For a lighter (or not so light depending on your weight) moment, read this article about Venezuela’s chocolate, sent in by Maruja

I think the answer is a resounding yes, for quite a number of reasons.

First of all, it is Chavez who has already said he will not accept a decision to go forward on the recall by the CNE. This is bad for him internationally, as both the OAS and the Carter Center will get much more vocal than they currently are if he acts like outside of  the law and the decisions by the CNE. Additionally, the Supreme Court, even if manipulated by Chavez can only use “reasonable” constitutional arguments in blocking the recall if someone’s rights have been violated or electoral rules have not been followed. Both seem far fetched to prove even if Chavez controls the Court.

I know international opinion is not that important short term, but it is important in the end. In fact, Chavez has been able to survive in large part because of the largely positive opinion by the international community that he was the constitutionally elected President of Venezuela. But were he to step so far outside the law, this would definitely help the opposition. I emphasize, it will not get rid of Chavez short term, but remember Fujimori!

Today’s move by Sumate to give out certificates to people that signed, was much cleverer than people give it credit for. The CNE really would have to stretch the rules to eliminate one million signatures from the Reafirmazo by the opposition. By handing out these certificates that people signed, Sumate has added a significant unknown variable into this equation.

If Sumate distributes five hundred thousand to a million of these certificates (On Sunday Lara and Zulia will have similar drives and there could be a dozen in the days to come), this will create a huge uncertainty for the CNE. Read article 31 of the regulations for recall referenda. It simply says you have five days to show up and say your signature was good and was somehow disqualified. If a person shows up with a copy of his/her signature even if it comes from a “plana”, the signature is simply good according to the rules. Thus, the CNE would need to disqualify 1.4-1.5 million signatures to really feel comfortable about it. This would require outright (and outrageous) fraud by the CNE.

By revealing that he would go to the Supreme Court, Chavez might have relieved some of the pressure from the CNE Directors themselves. They could simply argue that the decision was taken out of their hands when he said that and the TSJ will decide for them

Finally, there was no violence today, which is Chavez’ game…Definitely much better off.

(P.S. That things are better for the opposition, does not mean things will get better.  If you can, read today’s interview in page A-6 of El Nacional with someone that knows Chavez quite well, Captain Luis Valderrama, who was in charge of taking Valencia in the 1992 coup attempt. Just in case, should my blog dissapear sometime in the future, look for it to surface somehere else in the blogosphere under the name Satan’s Poop. Only the paranoid survive)

I think the answer is a resounding yes, for quite a number of reasons.

First of all, it is Chavez who has already said he will not accept a decision to go forward on the recall by the CNE. This is bad for him internationally, as both the OAS and the Carter Center will get much more vocal than they currently are if he acts like outside of  the law and the decisions by the CNE. Additionally, the Supreme Court, even if manipulated by Chavez can only use “reasonable” constitutional arguments in blocking the recall if someone’s rights have been violated or electoral rules have not been followed. Both seem far fetched to prove even if Chavez controls the Court.

I know international opinion is not that important short term, but it is important in the end. In fact, Chavez has been able to survive in large part because of the largely positive opinion by the international community that he was the constitutionally elected President of Venezuela. But were he to step so far outside the law, this would definitely help the opposition. I emphasize, it will not get rid of Chavez short term, but remember Fujimori!

Today’s move by Sumate to give out certificates to people that signed, was much cleverer than people give it credit for. The CNE really would have to stretch the rules to eliminate one million signatures from the Reafirmazo by the opposition. By handing out these certificates that people signed, Sumate has added a significant unknown variable into this equation.

If Sumate distributes five hundred thousand to a million of these certificates (On Sunday Lara and Zulia will have similar drives and there could be a dozen in the days to come), this will create a huge uncertainty for the CNE. Read article 31 of the regulations for recall referenda. It simply says you have five days to show up and say your signature was good and was somehow disqualified. If a person shows up with a copy of his/her signature even if it comes from a “plana”, the signature is simply good according to the rules. Thus, the CNE would need to disqualify 1.4-1.5 million signatures to really feel comfortable about it. This would require outright (and outrageous) fraud by the CNE.

By revealing that he would go to the Supreme Court, Chavez might have relieved some of the pressure from the CNE Directors themselves. They could simply argue that the decision was taken out of their hands when he said that and the TSJ will decide for them

Finally, there was no violence today, which is Chavez’ game…Definitely much better off.

(P.S. That things are better for the opposition, does not mean things will get better.  If you can, read today’s interview in page A-6 of El Nacional with someone that knows Chavez quite well, Captain Luis Valderrama, who was in charge of taking Valencia in the 1992 coup attempt. Just in case, should my blog dissapear sometime in the future, look for it to surface somehere else in the blogosphere under the name Satan’s Poop. Only the paranoid survive)

It was a good day today. The opposition marched to protest the fact that the CNE should have, by law, decided yesterday whether there would be or not recall referenda agaisnt President Chavez and both opposition and pro-Chavez Deputies to the National Assembly. It has been so long since the law has been enforced in Venezuela that our rights can be violated without anyone saying much about. We did not hear all week from the “Fiscal” the Attorney General/Prosecutor whose name is Isaias Rodriguez, who is in charge of upholding the law and defending the rights of the people. In fact, the only thing we heard from this shameless personality of this stupid revolution was when he came out to complain about the attacks on the Electoral Board. But he said nothing when Chavez said he would not accept a favorable decision by the CNE for his recall.

But it was  a good day. People marched, peacefully, cheerfully and protested once again against the injustices that are taking place day after day.  There was no violence whatsoever. Even if we were not allowed to reach the CNE, demonstrating the inequality under the law prevailing in Venezuela, a huge number of people went out as shown in the pictrure above. At the end of the march, Sumate, the ONG that organized the petition drives, set up tables with volunteers to hand out digitized copies of the forms in which people had signed. The copy had the form in which you signed, digitized with the other nine names fuzzied out. Th copy would include te number of the form, the line, the “Acta” number and the box in whichit was handed in to the CNE. The objective of this was to have people be able to prove they signed if their signatures were to be disqualified. Thus, a very clever move against the tricks of the Government.

I actuall worked as a volunteer handing out thee forms to the marchers. I missed the march, but I had a great time watchng people’s emotions when giving their copy of their signature. I saw just about everything everything in terms of emotions. People would turn happy, solenm, some would get teary eyes. Others thanked us profusively for a job well done. Others shook hands. Some screamed in joy. It felt good, really good!

Since I was working, I was unable to take many pictures. I took most at the beginning of the day, when the lines were light. I hope they convey some of the emotions I felt ans saw.

People setting up early on the morning. The boxes with their signs, ready for the people. The team I worked with before we started.

On the left a true victim of the violence and the impunity of the Chavez era, Mr. Mohammed Merhi, picks up his copy that he signed in favor of the recall against Hugo Chavez. Mr. Merhi’s son was killed on April 11 2002. To this day Venezuelan justice has been unable to tell him who killed his son.

In the middle a very happy nun picks up her proof she signed. On the right, this girl is tense as her proof is not found.

Happiness and suprise at the same time, when first seeing your signature. Very happy that she is there. Older lady with sign saying the recall will go through, waits for her copy.

I know many of the people who read this page, also read Francisco Toro’s Caracas Chronicles. But it is too important for the record of this revolution turned robolution and for those that are always blaming the opposition to read extraordinary analysis of Chavez’ State of the Union adress by Gustavo Coronel that I learned about via Francisco’s page. Thus, I wanted to include its existence here, even if I am duplicating material. Remember I started this blog as a record of what was happening in my country and a record should be as complete as possible.

In it, Coronel shows how Chavez in his State of the Union address takes credit for inducing the crisis in PDVSA. Takes credit for provoking the strike. Takes credit for violating the law. Takes credit for being the President of a few, not of all Venezuelans. He also takes credit for being ignorant, but we knew that!

The roller coaster is definitely on again. Today was once again of positives and negatives, confusing information, confrontation, all of which in the end leave me wondering if anything truly changed in the last 24 hours. Emotionally, this is very tiring, but I guess that is what underdevelopment is all about.

The most important development in my opinion, was probably the last one in the day, when Hug Chavez himself, the same one who claims to be a Democrat, the same one that has been challenging the opposition to say they will abide by whatever the referee, meaning the Electoral Board, the someone that held two referenda without rules, finally said today that if the CNE rules in favor of a recall referendum against him, he would go to the Supreme Court to challenge the decision.

Chavez showed here, here and here, “evidence” of the fraud committed by the opposition in the gathering of the signatures against him.  He single cited cases that would not survive the verification process, made generalizations about foreigners participating, but in the end his charges of massive fraud will simply not hold water. In fact, Chavez even changed the requirements saying that the regulations required people to fill out the data with their own hands.

To me Chavez press conference is actually a positive. It indicates, that despite the tricks, the scheming and the changes in rules and the Government-‘s pressure, the CNE finds it impossible to disqualify one million signatures and Chavez is getting ready for a decision against him. Positive, because this is the third time the opposition has submitted signatures for a referendum and if Chavez resorts to legalese, maybe the world will realize what the true nature of this “democrat” is.

This time around, the country, the military, international observers and the world have seen how the opposition gathered more than the required signatures and all types of treachery are being invoked to block the referendum. If Chavez goes to the Court and the recall is blocked, his much defended and tenuous credentials as a democrat would have disappeared which is a positive fro the opposition even if it is only longer term.

Remarkably, on the same day, Chávez named yet another General as the candidate for the Governorship of Zulia State, increasing the military presence in his candidacies, violating the law for declaring the candidacy of an active General and going against the  wishes of his own party in that state. Neither the law nor democracies are being respected by the President.

But there were other worrisome aspects to the day. While a National guard General said that nobody would be allowed near the CNE, the pro-Chavez campers that have surrounded the headquarters for the last three days attacked the driver for the OAS representative, members of Primero Justicia and William Ojeda from Un solo Pueblo. (There was another incident against reporters in Valencia, but reports blame the attack on either opposition or pro-Chavez supporters) When the same General was asked whether those camping outside the CNE would be removed he said they would if they became violent, but I guess violence is a one way street in Venezuela these days. Pictures from these attacks taken from the media are shown here:

Meanwhile and continued a pattern the Government said it could not guarantee the security of its citizens, telling the opposition not to go to the CNE. Set aside was the law. The law that says the CNE should have decided by today, the law that granted the opposition the right to march because it obtained the permits, but not for the Government to schedule a market in the path of the march. But it has been so long since the law has been respected that Government officials forget it even has to be mentioned.

Observers for both the OAS and the Carter Center did go to the CNE again today to express their concerns about the delays. Reportedly, they used tough words in private with the CNE reminding the Board of the fact that the will of the people has to be given priority over formalities and once again ratifying that they believe there are sufficient signatures to activate the recall against the President and that it is the actual vote in that referendum that really matters.

Before that meeting CNE Director Battaglini questioned the forms filled out by the same person, suggesting they were fraudulent and advancing an opinion that he should not have. More so, given the fact that all of these forms have been signed by pro-Chavez witnesses. However, he did say that no more than 50,000 of these forms have the problem which is only half the number of signatures that they need to disqualify in order to block the recall referendum.

To close the day, the CNE announced that the decision will be made before February 29^th. adding yet one more day to the deadline, and violating the law by more than 30 days since the signatures were handed in before Christmas and the CNE had thirty days to evaluate them. In perhaps on of the positive notes of the day, the CNE also said that it will consider the request by CNE Director Ezequiel Zamora to subtract form the days towards the actual vote on the referendum the excess days used by the CNE to approve the recall.

Tomorrow the opposition will march to protest the delays and to hand all of those that signed in Caracas a copy of their signature, with the number of the form and box in which it was turned over to the CNE. In this manner, if someone’s signature is disqualified, they can go to the CNE in the five days that will be set aside for that purpose. Reportedly, only a delegation from the opposition will go to the CNE itself to prevent violence. I will have reports and pictures sometime tomorrow of this rally.

It has become hard to judge what exactly is happening inside of the CNE. Statements made by various Directors of the Electoral body are contradictory, some show bad faith, others give explanations that sound reasonable and plausible, but in the end it is hard to form an educated opinion of what’s going on.

This morning, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez sounded quite reasonable, explaining that the reason that it was decided to go back and review the states whose names begin with the letters A-L was that the same criteria had to be applied to all of the forms reviewed and when these states were verified different criteria were used. However, this failed to explain why the CNE delayed making a decision as to whether the forms with a single handwriting were going to be validated or not. After all, if they are not going to be eliminated anyway, there is no point in going back to them.

The CNE has also failed to explain who and how changed the verification rules in the middle of the process which has been blamed on the CIO of the CNE, Mr. Hernandez. As Teodoro Petkoff reminds us in today’s Tal Cual Editorial, there are people at the lower echelons of the CNE that definitely act on their own and with bad faith.

One positive aspect is that by having equal criteria for all stages and all forms, then the possibility of an injunction in the Supreme Court for unequal treatment is eliminated. This would have been too obvious a reason to postpone the recall even further.

According to CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez, the forms questioned total 33,000 for the opposition recall of the President and 147,000 for the Chavista recall of the opposition Deputies. The difference arises because the pro-Chavze petition drive used the technique of having those at the booths fill out of the information as a general rule, while the opposition only used it for the itinerant forms and for those that asked for help. One measure of whether there is or not bad faith is that based on the last election, the 11 states yet to be revised represent 39.4% of the voting population, implying that no more than approximately 21,500 forms with single handwriting should be found in the revision.

If this estimate were to be correct, the total number of forms with single handwriting would be roughly 55,000 or 550,000 signatures which would still require the CNE to invalidate an additional 15.7% of the remaining signatures in order to block the recall referendum against President Chavez. Sumate, the OAS and the Carter Center had already presented statistical analysis suggesting that at most 5% of the submitted signatures can be disqualified using reasonable criteria.

On the negative side, tonight, opposition witnesses were denied the right to take notes while watching the verification of the forms and were saying that the criteria being used were tougher than before and the simple repetition of handwriting in two lines was now being used to set aside a form and declare it under observation, while the CNE had decided only those with the same handwriting for the full form should be considered.

On the positive side, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said that a decision will be made before February 29^th. and that today the timetable for all recalls under consideration would be approved by the Board of the CNE.

On other news, the Carter Center expressed its concern about the pro-Chavez forces surrounding the CNE headquarters and Saturday’s march, but the opposition has decided to have the march go to the CNE to avoid violence (Can’t find a link to that).

 Meanwhile the Attorney General who is supposed to uphold and enforce the law, expressed his concern about the charges against the CNE by the opposition, but failed to say anything about the fact that the CNE was violating the law by not deciding by tomorrow.

To make things even more surreal, the Vice-President shows up on TV saying that there are no riots anywhere in Venezuela in protest and nothing that is being reported is happening. The US State Department warns its citizens that there may be violence in Venezuela and I guess these pictures from today’s TV broadcast of the riots and protests used well-known techniques by the Irish filmmakers of “The Revolution will not be televised”  to make the country think there were riots, using images from months past:

(Last picture was from tonight after the VP spoke)

It has become hard to judge what exactly is happening inside of the CNE. Statements made by various Directors of the Electoral body are contradictory, some show bad faith, others give explanations that sound reasonable and plausible, but in the end it is hard to form an educated opinion of what’s going on.

This morning, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez sounded quite reasonable, explaining that the reason that it was decided to go back and review the states whose names begin with the letters A-L was that the same criteria had to be applied to all of the forms reviewed and when these states were verified different criteria were used. However, this failed to explain why the CNE delayed making a decision as to whether the forms with a single handwriting were going to be validated or not. After all, if they are not going to be eliminated anyway, there is no point in going back to them.

The CNE has also failed to explain who and how changed the verification rules in the middle of the process which has been blamed on the CIO of the CNE, Mr. Hernandez. As Teodoro Petkoff reminds us in today’s Tal Cual Editorial, there are people at the lower echelons of the CNE that definitely act on their own and with bad faith.

One positive aspect is that by having equal criteria for all stages and all forms, then the possibility of an injunction in the Supreme Court for unequal treatment is eliminated. This would have been too obvious a reason to postpone the recall even further.

According to CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez, the forms questioned total 33,000 for the opposition recall of the President and 147,000 for the Chavista recall of the opposition Deputies. The difference arises because the pro-Chavze petition drive used the technique of having those at the booths fill out of the information as a general rule, while the opposition only used it for the itinerant forms and for those that asked for help. One measure of whether there is or not bad faith is that based on the last election, the 11 states yet to be revised represent 39.4% of the voting population, implying that no more than approximately 21,500 forms with single handwriting should be found in the revision.

If this estimate were to be correct, the total number of forms with single handwriting would be roughly 55,000 or 550,000 signatures which would still require the CNE to invalidate an additional 15.7% of the remaining signatures in order to block the recall referendum against President Chavez. Sumate, the OAS and the Carter Center had already presented statistical analysis suggesting that at most 5% of the submitted signatures can be disqualified using reasonable criteria.

On the negative side, tonight, opposition witnesses were denied the right to take notes while watching the verification of the forms and were saying that the criteria being used were tougher than before and the simple repetition of handwriting in two lines was now being used to set aside a form and declare it under observation, while the CNE had decided only those with the same handwriting for the full form should be considered.

On the positive side, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said that a decision will be made before February 29^th. and that today the timetable for all recalls under consideration would be approved by the Board of the CNE.

On other news, the Carter Center expressed its concern about the pro-Chavez forces surrounding the CNE headquarters and Saturday’s march, but the opposition has decided to have the march go to the CNE to avoid violence (Can’t find a link to that).

 Meanwhile the Attorney General who is supposed to uphold and enforce the law, expressed his concern about the charges against the CNE by the opposition, but failed to say anything about the fact that the CNE was violating the law by not deciding by tomorrow.

To make things even more surreal, the Vice-President shows up on TV saying that there are no riots anywhere in Venezuela in protest and nothing that is being reported is happening. The US State Department warns its citizens that there may be violence in Venezuela and I guess these pictures from today’s TV broadcast of the riots and protests used well-known techniques by the Irish filmmakers of “The Revolution will not be televised”  to make the country think there were riots, using images from months past:

(Last picture was from tonight after the VP spoke)

The discussion at the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) has turned now to those forms in which the handwriting is the same for each signature, but the signature itself is different. The issue is typical of how complicated the whole petition process has become and how every little nook and cranny is being searched in order to find an excuse to disqualify signatures.

According to the regulations created by this CNE, when a petition is turned in, the signatures would be checked in order to make sure the data for the person signing corresponds to the data in the electoral registry. A signature could be disqualified, if the data did not match, was not clear or legible or if there were smudges, overlaps or irregularities.

What both the opposition, in the case of the presidential recall, and the Chavistas, for the case of the recall of opposition Deputies did, was to have at each post one or two tables where the person at the table would fill out the form for old people, people who were unsure of their handwriting or anyone that asked for it. In the case if the “itinerant” petition forms, most were instructed to fill out the forms for the people to guarantee that it would be done properly. In both cases, itinerant or not, teams had witnesses from both sides of the political spectrum, so that the process was carefully monitored.

Well, now there is at least intent to question all of the signatures gathered in this fashion, which implies changing the rules in the middle of the game. The regulations were quite clear that the handwriting was only an important factor for the signature, and that the data had to match.

Two developments concern me at this point. First of all, one CNE Director says that people will have five days to go to the CNE and confirm they signed the recall petition. This is simply absurd, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people having to go to the CNE to ratify they did something that nobody has a reason to question. Moreover, it affects precisely the group that would have the hardest time being able to mobilize to the CNE: the old and the poor. Additionally, the Chavistas have taken over the area surrounding the CNE.  The second source of concern is that now the CNE has decided, in a vote of three to two with the usual split between the two sides. to verify again the forms for the states from A to L, which had already been checked once.

Thus, as a member of the diplomatic core told an opposition politician “You Venezuelans are atypical; you have turned a simple gathering of signatures into the labyrinth of Crete”. Quite true, this is more complicated than any election and with these decisions, it is impossible for the CNE to decide anything by Friday’s deadline. In fact, this pushes things further into the future and the country further into an undesirable confrontation.