Sometimes it is difficult when emotions are involved to understand the true significance of events. It is easy to look back at history and interpret, it is more difficult to live it and understand. While the opposition did suffer a partial defeat in its efforts to hold a recall referendum against Hugo Chavez, the statement by the OAS and the Carter Center, basically saying that the signatures were there, will have an extremely significant impact in the future of Venezuela.
It is unusual for diplomats such as Francisco Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy to be as undiplomatic as they were today. More so, when they plan to stay in the country mediating an already complex and potentially explosive situation.
After the unequivocal statement by these two institutions with a vast experience on electoral matters, the Venezuelan Government will have difficulties accusing the opposition of fraud or attempting to overthrow it. The OAS and the Carter Center said that the people of Venezuela did indeed gather the required signatures, because the process was tightly controlled, witnesses, observed and certified by all parties that participated in it.
The statement sends a very important and direct message to the international community as well as to the Chavez administration. One should remember that both the OAS and the Carter Center came to Venezuela invited by Chavez himself and not by the opposition, but today their message was one of absolute solidarity with the opposition’s position.
Nothing is improvised in diplomacy. Jaramillo and McCoy could have made the same statement from Washington, out of the fray of the conflict or the proximity of the Chavez Government. But their move is likely to be just one of a complex game of negotiation that is likely to be taking place as I write these words.
When one puts side by side the statements by the Diplomats and the opposition leaders, it is clear that something was left unsaid. That a negotiation is taking place or was left unfinished. That for some reason Carrasquero is not a central figure in the process. That various Governments are applying significant amounts of pressure to the Chávez administration and that our Secretary Sate will have a tough and busy day tomorrow. As Lula sides with Bush on Haiti and departed Caracas earlier than expected last week, Chavez is more isolated than he ever thought he would be.
If the mechanism for ratifying the signatures is improved and polished, it will be harder for the pro-Chavez forces to introduce new tricks in the process and the door will be open for Chavez’ recall. At this point, Chavez may choose the non-democratic path, but that will certainly lead to even an earlier departure of Hugo Chávez from the Venezuelan political scene.
The Devil's Excrement 
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