The Devil's Excrement

Argelia Rios in today El Universal echoes the Vice-President’s words a few days ago that “the opposition will kick the table before August 15^th.” This is not the first time the Vice-President has made the prophecy that the opposition will step outside the democratic path, in fact, ever since the signing of the agreement to find a solution to the Venezuelan crisis, Rangel has repeatedly predicted it, to no avail. In fact, what I found most interesting about Rios’ article was the summary of obstacles that the opposition has had to overcome to get to the recall referendum, which I thought was worth reproducing here in condensed version and in my own words:

-The previous Electoral Board was precluded from considering any requests for referenda by the Supreme Court.

-The Chavez controlled National Assembly delayed naming the Electoral Board. In fact, it never did.

-The selection of an Electoral Board which supposedly had two members for each side and Carrasquero as the “equilibrium” card. What a joke!

-The decision by the CNE to take over the petition process for the recall referendum, converting it into an electoral process in itself.

-Regulating the petition process to make it complicated, arbitrary and difficult.

-Barring the right to sign the petition by Venezuelans abroad.

-Limiting the role of international observers.

-Forcing the use of currency paper to gather signatures for security purposes, despite which the Government claimed fraud.

-There were “errors” committed in training the witnesses for the petition drive.

-The number of days for the petition drive were arbitrarily limited to four.

-The interpretation of the regulations for the signatures which allowed with one stroke the invalidation of 350,000 signatures, suing a surreal catalogue of “causes”.

-The elimination of 800,000 signatures, which forced a new “ratification” process for those signatures that had the same calligraphy.

-The inequality in the application of the regulations between the process to gather signatures to recall Chavez and those to recall Deputies.

Then came the ratification in which we witnessed:

-Regulations were issued to guarantee that it would be impossible to have the opposition ratify the signatures.

-The database was manipulated.

The Electoral Registry was manipulated to guarantee that thousands of people would not be able to ratify their signatures.

-The new interpretation that people could withdraw their signatures because they changed their minds, but those that wanted their signatures added could not.

-The complex design of the forms and the process.

And now we face:

-A new automatic process using a new company, in a process that has a simple Yes and No vote which hardly justifies using machines.

-All contracts have been assigned in discretionary fashion by the CNE, which is controlled by the Government.

-Now, machines to capture fingerprints are purchased six weeks before the process with the sudden “rumor” that this will make the vote not secret.

-The pretension of converting international observers into deaf mutes.

-The existence of a parallel CNE where the three pro-Chavez Directors meet and show up to the meeting with the two other Directors with everything decide according to the wishes of the maximum leaders of the process.

-The sudden need to have new polling centers.

-The sudden rush to hand out national ID cards and have foreigners become citizens.

-The obstacles placed on Venezuelans abroad to register to vote.

-The sudden pensioning off or leaves granted top dozens of CNE workers with expertise.

-The inability to fulfill the schedule which threatens the date for the recall vote.

-The rejection of the live audit of the electronic and paper votes.

And I add

-The sudden departure of two CNE Directors for two days to attend propaganda events organized by the Government in the US, in which the two CNE Directors talked about the balanced and fair job they have done. Why didn’t they invite the non-Chavista members of the CNE? Too afraid of the truth?.

After all this, what does Rangel have in mind to push the opposition into refusing to continue the process? You have to wonder and worry.

Argelia Rios in today El Universal echoes the Vice-President’s words a few days ago that “the opposition will kick the table before August 15^th.” This is not the first time the Vice-President has made the prophecy that the opposition will step outside the democratic path, in fact, ever since the signing of the agreement to find a solution to the Venezuelan crisis, Rangel has repeatedly predicted it, to no avail. In fact, what I found most interesting about Rios’ article was the summary of obstacles that the opposition has had to overcome to get to the recall referendum, which I thought was worth reproducing here in condensed version and in my own words:

-The previous Electoral Board was precluded from considering any requests for referenda by the Supreme Court.

-The Chavez controlled National Assembly delayed naming the Electoral Board. In fact, it never did.

-The selection of an Electoral Board which supposedly had two members for each side and Carrasquero as the “equilibrium” card. What a joke!

-The decision by the CNE to take over the petition process for the recall referendum, converting it into an electoral process in itself.

-Regulating the petition process to make it complicated, arbitrary and difficult.

-Barring the right to sign the petition by Venezuelans abroad.

-Limiting the role of international observers.

-Forcing the use of currency paper to gather signatures for security purposes, despite which the Government claimed fraud.

-There were “errors” committed in training the witnesses for the petition drive.

-The number of days for the petition drive were arbitrarily limited to four.

-The interpretation of the regulations for the signatures which allowed with one stroke the invalidation of 350,000 signatures, suing a surreal catalogue of “causes”.

-The elimination of 800,000 signatures, which forced a new “ratification” process for those signatures that had the same calligraphy.

-The inequality in the application of the regulations between the process to gather signatures to recall Chavez and those to recall Deputies.

Then came the ratification in which we witnessed:

-Regulations were issued to guarantee that it would be impossible to have the opposition ratify the signatures.

-The database was manipulated.

The Electoral Registry was manipulated to guarantee that thousands of people would not be able to ratify their signatures.

-The new interpretation that people could withdraw their signatures because they changed their minds, but those that wanted their signatures added could not.

-The complex design of the forms and the process.

And now we face:

-A new automatic process using a new company, in a process that has a simple Yes and No vote which hardly justifies using machines.

-All contracts have been assigned in discretionary fashion by the CNE, which is controlled by the Government.

-Now, machines to capture fingerprints are purchased six weeks before the process with the sudden “rumor” that this will make the vote not secret.

-The pretension of converting international observers into deaf mutes.

-The existence of a parallel CNE where the three pro-Chavez Directors meet and show up to the meeting with the two other Directors with everything decide according to the wishes of the maximum leaders of the process.

-The sudden need to have new polling centers.

-The sudden rush to hand out national ID cards and have foreigners become citizens.

-The obstacles placed on Venezuelans abroad to register to vote.

-The sudden pensioning off or leaves granted top dozens of CNE workers with expertise.

-The inability to fulfill the schedule which threatens the date for the recall vote.

-The rejection of the live audit of the electronic and paper votes.

And I add

-The sudden departure of two CNE Directors for two days to attend propaganda events organized by the Government in the US, in which the two CNE Directors talked about the balanced and fair job they have done. Why didn’t they invite the non-Chavista members of the CNE? Too afraid of the truth?.

After all this, what does Rangel have in mind to push the opposition into refusing to continue the process? You have to wonder and worry.

Argelia Rios in today El Universal echoes the Vice-President’s words a few days ago that “the opposition will kick the table before August 15^th.” This is not the first time the Vice-President has made the prophecy that the opposition will step outside the democratic path, in fact, ever since the signing of the agreement to find a solution to the Venezuelan crisis, Rangel has repeatedly predicted it, to no avail. In fact, what I found most interesting about Rios’ article was the summary of obstacles that the opposition has had to overcome to get to the recall referendum, which I thought was worth reproducing here in condensed version and in my own words:

-The previous Electoral Board was precluded from considering any requests for referenda by the Supreme Court.

-The Chavez controlled National Assembly delayed naming the Electoral Board. In fact, it never did.

-The selection of an Electoral Board which supposedly had two members for each side and Carrasquero as the “equilibrium” card. What a joke!

-The decision by the CNE to take over the petition process for the recall referendum, converting it into an electoral process in itself.

-Regulating the petition process to make it complicated, arbitrary and difficult.

-Barring the right to sign the petition by Venezuelans abroad.

-Limiting the role of international observers.

-Forcing the use of currency paper to gather signatures for security purposes, despite which the Government claimed fraud.

-There were “errors” committed in training the witnesses for the petition drive.

-The number of days for the petition drive were arbitrarily limited to four.

-The interpretation of the regulations for the signatures which allowed with one stroke the invalidation of 350,000 signatures, suing a surreal catalogue of “causes”.

-The elimination of 800,000 signatures, which forced a new “ratification” process for those signatures that had the same calligraphy.

-The inequality in the application of the regulations between the process to gather signatures to recall Chavez and those to recall Deputies.

Then came the ratification in which we witnessed:

-Regulations were issued to guarantee that it would be impossible to have the opposition ratify the signatures.

-The database was manipulated.

The Electoral Registry was manipulated to guarantee that thousands of people would not be able to ratify their signatures.

-The new interpretation that people could withdraw their signatures because they changed their minds, but those that wanted their signatures added could not.

-The complex design of the forms and the process.

And now we face:

-A new automatic process using a new company, in a process that has a simple Yes and No vote which hardly justifies using machines.

-All contracts have been assigned in discretionary fashion by the CNE, which is controlled by the Government.

-Now, machines to capture fingerprints are purchased six weeks before the process with the sudden “rumor” that this will make the vote not secret.

-The pretension of converting international observers into deaf mutes.

-The existence of a parallel CNE where the three pro-Chavez Directors meet and show up to the meeting with the two other Directors with everything decide according to the wishes of the maximum leaders of the process.

-The sudden need to have new polling centers.

-The sudden rush to hand out national ID cards and have foreigners become citizens.

-The obstacles placed on Venezuelans abroad to register to vote.

-The sudden pensioning off or leaves granted top dozens of CNE workers with expertise.

-The inability to fulfill the schedule which threatens the date for the recall vote.

-The rejection of the live audit of the electronic and paper votes.

And I add

-The sudden departure of two CNE Directors for two days to attend propaganda events organized by the Government in the US, in which the two CNE Directors talked about the balanced and fair job they have done. Why didn’t they invite the non-Chavista members of the CNE? Too afraid of the truth?.

After all this, what does Rangel have in mind to push the opposition into refusing to continue the process? You have to wonder and worry.

Cartoonist Rayma shows once again her imaginative genius by proposing this logo for the opposition campaign for the “SI” in the referendum in which mythical and religious (and powerfull!) figure Maria Lionza blends in with the “I”

We have witnessed in the last two weeks an absurd discussion on the part of the Chavistas as to the role of the international observers. International observers are invited to electoral processes as a way of guaranteeing the transparency and cleanliness of the process, nothing else, and nothing more. Observers are invited to protect both sides, to warn of tricks and guarantee the results are valid.

Thus, it certainly sounds fishy and sends the wrong signal to the world to limit, restrict and regulate what they can or not do while they are here. In the regulations issued by the pro-Chavez CNE, observers will not be allowed to make any public comments! How absurd can you get? Imagine there is massive cheating by either side and the CNE is saying the observers will have to remain silent, write their reports and then go home? Simply absurd.

The level of absurdity is reaching such a point that in the latest proposal; even the number of days spent in Venezuela is being regulated. To me it is quite clear and it should worry those that are pro-Chavez that this is not a concern: The presence of international observers guarantees that both sides will respect the outcome no matter who wins! If you had one observer per polling station, it would be great! But the argument is that no election in the world has had more than 50 international observers (false: Peru and Nicaragua had many times more than that), thus why should the Venezuelan referendum have more?

The answer is clear; we want the outcome to be respected, clear, and transparent, without any possible or reasonable doubt. We want observers to go around the country freely (not only to the six states specified by the CNE), to speak out freely, to be allowed to visit, probe. As a loyal member of the opposition, I don’t want Chavez to come out and say, like he did after the signatures, that there had been a massive fraud (whatever happened to that?). I want the evidence to be overwhelming that he won or lost, fair and square, for everyone to se and accept. And the only way for that is to have thousands, if possible, observers roaming, probing criticizing and warning. The rest is revolutionary BS by those that, in my opinion, are planning to cheat or interfere with the recall referendum process.

We have witnessed in the last two weeks an absurd discussion on the part of the Chavistas as to the role of the international observers. International observers are invited to electoral processes as a way of guaranteeing the transparency and cleanliness of the process, nothing else, and nothing more. Observers are invited to protect both sides, to warn of tricks and guarantee the results are valid.

Thus, it certainly sounds fishy and sends the wrong signal to the world to limit, restrict and regulate what they can or not do while they are here. In the regulations issued by the pro-Chavez CNE, observers will not be allowed to make any public comments! How absurd can you get? Imagine there is massive cheating by either side and the CNE is saying the observers will have to remain silent, write their reports and then go home? Simply absurd.

The level of absurdity is reaching such a point that in the latest proposal; even the number of days spent in Venezuela is being regulated. To me it is quite clear and it should worry those that are pro-Chavez that this is not a concern: The presence of international observers guarantees that both sides will respect the outcome no matter who wins! If you had one observer per polling station, it would be great! But the argument is that no election in the world has had more than 50 international observers (false: Peru and Nicaragua had many times more than that), thus why should the Venezuelan referendum have more?

The answer is clear; we want the outcome to be respected, clear, and transparent, without any possible or reasonable doubt. We want observers to go around the country freely (not only to the six states specified by the CNE), to speak out freely, to be allowed to visit, probe. As a loyal member of the opposition, I don’t want Chavez to come out and say, like he did after the signatures, that there had been a massive fraud (whatever happened to that?). I want the evidence to be overwhelming that he won or lost, fair and square, for everyone to se and accept. And the only way for that is to have thousands, if possible, observers roaming, probing criticizing and warning. The rest is revolutionary BS by those that, in my opinion, are planning to cheat or interfere with the recall referendum process.

Everyone seems to be worried about the latest Greenberg poll which shows that the No vote is leading the Si vote. I am not. Basically, I find a few things in this poll puzzling and contradictory.

First of all, based on my fairly intense experience with interpreting polls in Venezuela I know one thing: The hardest variable to measure in Venezuela is whether the person plans to vote or not. In the last few elections, most pollsters were reporting abstentions below 20% and they all came in at levels near 40%, a significant difference. Moreover, this shyness about telling the truth is highest the lower you go in social strata, where abstention tends to be the highest. Thus, it seems very strange to me that the Greenberg poll will not even tell us what the raw data says, which is the proper way to do it given the problem with determining whether people will vote or not. As an example, the same techniques being use by Greenberg revealed in November that 4.4 million people were planning to sign the petition against Chavez and we know Sumate handed in only 3.45 million signatures, so the error is significant.

My second reason for discarding the data is that it contradicts most of the data, once you rule out “phantom” pollsters like “North American Opinion Research”, the only poll that coincides with Greenberg and is as “North American” as joropo or a Reina Pepiada arepa. I know most people do not trust Venezuelan pollsters, but I have the files from the last ten years and the main mistake by pollsters in the last three presidential elections was that only one pollster said Claudio Fermin would come in second place against Caldera in 1993, which he did. In fact, if you take the two races in which Chavez participated, pollsters would give their results as: Chavez xx%, #2 yy%, #3 zz% and don’t know/abstention ww%. If you subtract the latter and renormalize the data, no major pollster was out of the range of the final results. In fact, Consultores 21, which has the Si vote comfortably in first place today, was always accused of being pro-Chavez because in both elections it told the truth, it said that Chavez could not lose. Today it is being disqualified as “pro-opposition”.

My last point is qualitative. If I look back to 2001 to the Datos poll (Datos gathers the data for Greenberg) the latest Greenberg poll says that Chavez has exactly the same support and opposition that he did in 2001, very hard to believe in my opinion.

To me the Greenberg poll has something very positive about it: It undermines the confidence of the opposition leaders, forcing them to work hard and be very careful with what they do. However, it does have in my opinion a very negative effect in influencing the campaign by the opposition. Basically I think all of the opposition needs to do is to have its supporters go and vote, the Greenberg poll is making them think that they need to “attract” the pro-Chavez crowd in order to win. To me, the opposition has to concentrate in getting out the vote from its supporters, guaranteeing that there will be no fraud and that people do not feel afraid of expressing their opinion. After all, if more than 50% of the population really wanted Chavez to stay, then those of us in the opposition would have to wait another day and accept the results of this democratic process. But we will not have to.

Reportedly, there is a lot of infighting within Chavez’ MVR. The failure by the Chavistas to stop the recall referendum has created important differences among the various factions in the Chavismo. Some want the Government to be tougher, others want to follow the rules and others…are simply fed up.

Such cracks in the wall are typical of regimes that have total control of a political system and are a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for its downfall.  One such crack, which has been making a lot of noise lately, is MVR/Podemos (former?) Deputy Roger Rondon. Rondon was one of those unknown political figures that rode on Chavez’ coattails to the National Assembly. He had been the loyal soldier until recently when, supposedly fed up with the control by the Patria para Todos (PPT) party over PDVSA as well as the numerous cases of corruption in the Venezuelan oil industry. After making corruption and nepotism charges against the Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, Rondon was removed from his position as Chairman of the Energy and Mines Committee of the National Assembly.

Rondon was certainly unhappy. He not only reiterated the charges against Ramirez, including hiring half his family in the oil industry, but also denounced that MVR Deputy Luis Tascon had confessed that the Government had planted the paramilitary uniforms thus creating the now forgotten scandal of the paramilitary force purportedly organized by the opposition. According to Rondon, Tascon even boasted that this was proof of the efficiency of the Chavista team in dominating the media.

Tascon was not happy either and showed a note from Rondon yesterday asking someone from PDVSA to give a hand to an acquaintance of his who owns a gas station.

Rondon responded in kind today, making what are probably the most explosive charges, this time against General Raul Baduel, the man who supposedly saved Chavez’ presidency in April 2002. Rondon showed today a letter written by the General quite a while ago, to then President of PDVSA Roberto Mandini. In it, Baduel, who was then Chavez private secretary, recommended to Mandini to consider the company Hertech for contracts related to the Jose project. Rondon said in his statement that the letter said that Baduel was following instructions from the President, but he was careful enough to clarify that he could not say Chavez knew of this. Since that letter, Hertech has been awarded contracts at Jose for over US$ 70 million.

In this same press conference, Rondon claimed that graphological examination of the note proved that it was not written by him and took advantage of the occasion to take a potshot at MVR Deputy Nicolas Maduro accusing him of owning 400 cabs of obscure origin. To close, Rondon said that from now on he will vote his conscience in the National Assembly.

Thus, an obscure politician whose only claim to fame was supporting Chavez, becomes a problem for Chavez and his supporters. We will likely see more evidence and charges from Rodnon given his former influential position in the National Assembly. As we say in Spanish:

“Cria cuervos y te sacaran los ojos” “Breed crows and they will pick your eyes”

Reportedly, there is a lot of infighting within Chavez’ MVR. The failure by the Chavistas to stop the recall referendum has created important differences among the various factions in the Chavismo. Some want the Government to be tougher, others want to follow the rules and others…are simply fed up.

Such cracks in the wall are typical of regimes that have total control of a political system and are a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for its downfall.  One such crack, which has been making a lot of noise lately, is MVR/Podemos (former?) Deputy Roger Rondon. Rondon was one of those unknown political figures that rode on Chavez’ coattails to the National Assembly. He had been the loyal soldier until recently when, supposedly fed up with the control by the Patria para Todos (PPT) party over PDVSA as well as the numerous cases of corruption in the Venezuelan oil industry. After making corruption and nepotism charges against the Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, Rondon was removed from his position as Chairman of the Energy and Mines Committee of the National Assembly.

Rondon was certainly unhappy. He not only reiterated the charges against Ramirez, including hiring half his family in the oil industry, but also denounced that MVR Deputy Luis Tascon had confessed that the Government had planted the paramilitary uniforms thus creating the now forgotten scandal of the paramilitary force purportedly organized by the opposition. According to Rondon, Tascon even boasted that this was proof of the efficiency of the Chavista team in dominating the media.

Tascon was not happy either and showed a note from Rondon yesterday asking someone from PDVSA to give a hand to an acquaintance of his who owns a gas station.

Rondon responded in kind today, making what are probably the most explosive charges, this time against General Raul Baduel, the man who supposedly saved Chavez’ presidency in April 2002. Rondon showed today a letter written by the General quite a while ago, to then President of PDVSA Roberto Mandini. In it, Baduel, who was then Chavez private secretary, recommended to Mandini to consider the company Hertech for contracts related to the Jose project. Rondon said in his statement that the letter said that Baduel was following instructions from the President, but he was careful enough to clarify that he could not say Chavez knew of this. Since that letter, Hertech has been awarded contracts at Jose for over US$ 70 million.

In this same press conference, Rondon claimed that graphological examination of the note proved that it was not written by him and took advantage of the occasion to take a potshot at MVR Deputy Nicolas Maduro accusing him of owning 400 cabs of obscure origin. To close, Rondon said that from now on he will vote his conscience in the National Assembly.

Thus, an obscure politician whose only claim to fame was supporting Chavez, becomes a problem for Chavez and his supporters. We will likely see more evidence and charges from Rodnon given his former influential position in the National Assembly. As we say in Spanish:

“Cria cuervos y te sacaran los ojos” “Breed crows and they will pick your eyes”

Reportedly, there is a lot of infighting within Chavez’ MVR. The failure by the Chavistas to stop the recall referendum has created important differences among the various factions in the Chavismo. Some want the Government to be tougher, others want to follow the rules and others…are simply fed up.

Such cracks in the wall are typical of regimes that have total control of a political system and are a necessary but not sufficient prerequisite for its downfall.  One such crack, which has been making a lot of noise lately, is MVR/Podemos (former?) Deputy Roger Rondon. Rondon was one of those unknown political figures that rode on Chavez’ coattails to the National Assembly. He had been the loyal soldier until recently when, supposedly fed up with the control by the Patria para Todos (PPT) party over PDVSA as well as the numerous cases of corruption in the Venezuelan oil industry. After making corruption and nepotism charges against the Minister of Energy and Mines Rafael Ramirez, Rondon was removed from his position as Chairman of the Energy and Mines Committee of the National Assembly.

Rondon was certainly unhappy. He not only reiterated the charges against Ramirez, including hiring half his family in the oil industry, but also denounced that MVR Deputy Luis Tascon had confessed that the Government had planted the paramilitary uniforms thus creating the now forgotten scandal of the paramilitary force purportedly organized by the opposition. According to Rondon, Tascon even boasted that this was proof of the efficiency of the Chavista team in dominating the media.

Tascon was not happy either and showed a note from Rondon yesterday asking someone from PDVSA to give a hand to an acquaintance of his who owns a gas station.

Rondon responded in kind today, making what are probably the most explosive charges, this time against General Raul Baduel, the man who supposedly saved Chavez’ presidency in April 2002. Rondon showed today a letter written by the General quite a while ago, to then President of PDVSA Roberto Mandini. In it, Baduel, who was then Chavez private secretary, recommended to Mandini to consider the company Hertech for contracts related to the Jose project. Rondon said in his statement that the letter said that Baduel was following instructions from the President, but he was careful enough to clarify that he could not say Chavez knew of this. Since that letter, Hertech has been awarded contracts at Jose for over US$ 70 million.

In this same press conference, Rondon claimed that graphological examination of the note proved that it was not written by him and took advantage of the occasion to take a potshot at MVR Deputy Nicolas Maduro accusing him of owning 400 cabs of obscure origin. To close, Rondon said that from now on he will vote his conscience in the National Assembly.

Thus, an obscure politician whose only claim to fame was supporting Chavez, becomes a problem for Chavez and his supporters. We will likely see more evidence and charges from Rodnon given his former influential position in the National Assembly. As we say in Spanish:

“Cria cuervos y te sacaran los ojos” “Breed crows and they will pick your eyes”