Archive for September, 2004

The untouchable pensions

September 4, 2004

This week two things happened that reminded me of one of the most perverse things that goes on in this country and nothing ever gets done about it: Government pensions. The two things that happened were the resignation of Minister Hector Navarro from the Ministry of Higher Education and the issuing of new pension rules at the Venezuelan Central Bank.


Navarro, who has been a Minister from day one of the Chavez administration, quit his position in order to go back to his duties at Universidad Central de Venezuela and retire in one and a half years. Navarro is in his late forties or early fifties and will take advantage of the generous pensions in Venezuelan Universities which allow you to retire after 25 (twenty five) years at full salary and benefits, without ever contributing to a pension fund. Moreover, the system is such that when the salary of Professors is increased, retired Professors get the increase too. Additionally, if you die, the same benefits are transferred over to your widow until her death.


 


Similarly, the Central Bank issued new ¨tougher¨ rules on pensions from that institution. by which men wanting to retire will now need 20 years of service if they are 60 years old, 20 if you are 55 years old or 35 years of service. For women, they can retire after 20 years of service if they are 55 years old. All of these pensions are automatically adjusted if the person holding your last position receives a salary increase. Thus, all former Presidents of the Central Bank who have retired, and there are a few around receive the same pension, all without ever having contributed to a pension fund.


 


This extremely absurd system has been in place for a long time. No country, however rich can sustain a pension system like this one. There have been two attempts to change it; one was changed at the last minute. The second one took place during Caldera’s last year, led by Tal Cual Editor´s Teodoro Petkoff and was supposed to take effect on the year 2000. That bill established both Government and private pension funds which would be by contribution only. Additionally, it established uniform criteria for retirement, either 65 years of age or 35 years of service. In addition to providing a healthy pension system, it wouldprovide a pool of savings that could invest in Government bonds, solving two problems at once. The perversity had been supposedly eliminated from the system; much like Lula did in Brazil in his first year in power.


 


When Chavez got to power he named a commission to study the new law and gave it six months to make changes. Then he extended it six months. He gave them an additional six months and, unfortunately, that was the last we heard of the issue.


 


The commission made a big deal out of the fact that the laws allowed the banks to get into the pension fund business. The way I understand it however, was that most of the members of the Commission were either revolutionary academics that felt their future pensions were threatened by the Bill, or MVR or PPT politicians who saw their extremely generous Assembly pensions in danger.


 


The result was typical Venezuelan: do nothing. Unfortunately, only a few will continue to benefit from this indecision, in a manner which I find both obscene and perverse. But this is not a political issue, for either side.

The untouchable pensions

September 4, 2004

This week two things happened that reminded me of one of the most perverse things that goes on in this country and nothing ever gets done about it: Government pensions. The two things that happened were the resignation of Minister Hector Navarro from the Ministry of Higher Education and the issuing of new pension rules at the Venezuelan Central Bank.


Navarro, who has been a Minister from day one of the Chavez administration, quit his position in order to go back to his duties at Universidad Central de Venezuela and retire in one and a half years. Navarro is in his late forties or early fifties and will take advantage of the generous pensions in Venezuelan Universities which allow you to retire after 25 (twenty five) years at full salary and benefits, without ever contributing to a pension fund. Moreover, the system is such that when the salary of Professors is increased, retired Professors get the increase too. Additionally, if you die, the same benefits are transferred over to your widow until her death.


 


Similarly, the Central Bank issued new ¨tougher¨ rules on pensions from that institution. by which men wanting to retire will now need 20 years of service if they are 60 years old, 20 if you are 55 years old or 35 years of service. For women, they can retire after 20 years of service if they are 55 years old. All of these pensions are automatically adjusted if the person holding your last position receives a salary increase. Thus, all former Presidents of the Central Bank who have retired, and there are a few around receive the same pension, all without ever having contributed to a pension fund.


 


This extremely absurd system has been in place for a long time. No country, however rich can sustain a pension system like this one. There have been two attempts to change it; one was changed at the last minute. The second one took place during Caldera’s last year, led by Tal Cual Editor´s Teodoro Petkoff and was supposed to take effect on the year 2000. That bill established both Government and private pension funds which would be by contribution only. Additionally, it established uniform criteria for retirement, either 65 years of age or 35 years of service. In addition to providing a healthy pension system, it wouldprovide a pool of savings that could invest in Government bonds, solving two problems at once. The perversity had been supposedly eliminated from the system; much like Lula did in Brazil in his first year in power.


 


When Chavez got to power he named a commission to study the new law and gave it six months to make changes. Then he extended it six months. He gave them an additional six months and, unfortunately, that was the last we heard of the issue.


 


The commission made a big deal out of the fact that the laws allowed the banks to get into the pension fund business. The way I understand it however, was that most of the members of the Commission were either revolutionary academics that felt their future pensions were threatened by the Bill, or MVR or PPT politicians who saw their extremely generous Assembly pensions in danger.


 


The result was typical Venezuelan: do nothing. Unfortunately, only a few will continue to benefit from this indecision, in a manner which I find both obscene and perverse. But this is not a political issue, for either side.

A corrupt, gutsy and stupid judge

September 4, 2004

Judge Jose Ramon Villanueva has just set a new Standard for corruption, stupidity and gutsyness in Venezuela. The judge, who happens to be the one considering the case against Primero Justicia Mayor Henrique Capriles, was caught red handed trying to blackmail none other than the Head of the investigative police (CIPC) Marcos Chavez. Reportedly the judge was handling a case in which Chavez (no relation to the President) was being accused of corruption and asked the Head of CIPC (the equivalent of the FBI) to give him Bs. 15 million (all of US$ 5,000 at the parallel exchange rate) to drop the case.


Judge Villanueva is famous (infamous?) for a number of cases, such as freeing Colombian hijacker Ballestas in 2000 or ordering the detention of the Altamira Square Generals without any accusation from the prosecutor’s office. Two weeks ago he came out and said he could not rule on the Capriles case because he had been sick and had not had time to look at the file for the case. The next day he ruled on it, granting all of the requests of Prosecutor Danilo Anderson. Capriles´ defense accused the judge that day of meeting that evening with three judges who told him how to rule. The judge went on TV to deny this ever happened.


 


Villanueva was in the initial list to be one of the new additional Supreme Court judges, but did not make the final list. Definitely a gutsy guy to blackmail Chavez, I guess for the good of Venezuelan Justice he will not be judging anyone anymore.

A corrupt, gutsy and stupid judge

September 4, 2004

Judge Jose Ramon Villanueva has just set a new Standard for corruption, stupidity and gutsyness in Venezuela. The judge, who happens to be the one considering the case against Primero Justicia Mayor Henrique Capriles, was caught red handed trying to blackmail none other than the Head of the investigative police (CIPC) Marcos Chavez. Reportedly the judge was handling a case in which Chavez (no relation to the President) was being accused of corruption and asked the Head of CIPC (the equivalent of the FBI) to give him Bs. 15 million (all of US$ 5,000 at the parallel exchange rate) to drop the case.


Judge Villanueva is famous (infamous?) for a number of cases, such as freeing Colombian hijacker Ballestas in 2000 or ordering the detention of the Altamira Square Generals without any accusation from the prosecutor’s office. Two weeks ago he came out and said he could not rule on the Capriles case because he had been sick and had not had time to look at the file for the case. The next day he ruled on it, granting all of the requests of Prosecutor Danilo Anderson. Capriles´ defense accused the judge that day of meeting that evening with three judges who told him how to rule. The judge went on TV to deny this ever happened.


 


Villanueva was in the initial list to be one of the new additional Supreme Court judges, but did not make the final list. Definitely a gutsy guy to blackmail Chavez, I guess for the good of Venezuelan Justice he will not be judging anyone anymore.

Expensive ad in today’s NYT

September 4, 2004

Ad in full color in today’s New York Times on the wonders of the new Venezuela



Lot’s of empty sentences. My favorite: the Government has increased spending from oil revenues from 40 million dollars to 1.7 billion. Makes you wonder on what and what happened before? Oil revenues were burned? Saved? Stolen?

Amateur video shows military tampering with ballot boxes

September 3, 2004

The Coordinadora Democratica has obtained a copy of an amateur video in which a military truck carrying boxes with electoral ballots stops in an isolated area, reportedly in Zulia state and the sopldires begin opening the boxes, taking stuff out and replacing it. You can see them looking at the labels in each box, then opening some of them and taking stuff out and then replacing it. Below some not so high quality pictures of the video taken from the magazine Zeta. The video was supposedly made on Wednesday morning before the now infamous audit was made.





I am sure the sure the brain dead people who pollute and are not welcome in the comments section will say something about the CD cooking this up. I remind them that the truck has a number, there is date. Thsi means there is a military record of who, when, where and waht they were carrying. The CD will ask for them, the Government will refuse to give it, what will they say then?


Note added: beto has pointed that the speedy friends at urru have already posted the video online!!


http://www.urru.org/filmaciones_index.htm


Another note added: Just watched the video after waiting a long time  for it to dowload.Very interesting. It i a video off a TV showing the video. You can hear the people discussing what hey are seeing. Quality is pretty good you can recognize people’s faces and what they are doing. You see armedsoldiers aroundthe truck as people choose the right boxes to work on.

Amateur video shows military tampering with ballot boxes

September 3, 2004

The Coordinadora Democratica has obtained a copy of an amateur video in which a military truck carrying boxes with electoral ballots stops in an isolated area, reportedly in Zulia state and the sopldires begin opening the boxes, taking stuff out and replacing it. You can see them looking at the labels in each box, then opening some of them and taking stuff out and then replacing it. Below some not so high quality pictures of the video taken from the magazine Zeta. The video was supposedly made on Wednesday morning before the now infamous audit was made.





I am sure the sure the brain dead people who pollute and are not welcome in the comments section will say something about the CD cooking this up. I remind them that the truck has a number, there is date. Thsi means there is a military record of who, when, where and waht they were carrying. The CD will ask for them, the Government will refuse to give it, what will they say then?


Note added: beto has pointed that the speedy friends at urru have already posted the video online!!


http://www.urru.org/filmaciones_index.htm


Another note added: Just watched the video after waiting a long time  for it to dowload.Very interesting. It i a video off a TV showing the video. You can hear the people discussing what hey are seeing. Quality is pretty good you can recognize people’s faces and what they are doing. You see armedsoldiers aroundthe truck as people choose the right boxes to work on.

More on the Presidential guard: Scary guys

September 2, 2004

The case of the so called elite guards of the President who were part of his first ring of security becomes apparently more clear with a home video of the forty soldiers made the day before the recall referendum.


In the video, the soldiers are shown in a room decorated by a picture of Chavez and one of Simon Bolivar. There is a table in the middle covered with ¨No¨ signs a flower arrangement and a symbol of the GRAT unit. Their leader speaks out. The speech expresses love for Chavez and what he stands for. However, they say that those in the Casa Militar (in charge of presidential security) are shielding Chavez from the truth. They make accusations of corruption and ask Chavez to do for the Casa Militar the type of cleansing he did at PDVSA. They tell Chavez that this was the reason why tried to get into his office, they wanted to explain to him what was going on. The tone is eerie, recrimination, love and fundamentalism all in one. They tell Chavez they are not paid by the opposition. All of the soldiers join each other by the forearms and sign what is supposed to be the chant of their unit which includes dying for their country, dying for their leader…


 


Scary stuff, these guys sound like extreme fundamentalists. Trying to get a copy of the video to post.

More on the Presidential guard: Scary guys

September 2, 2004

The case of the so called elite guards of the President who were part of his first ring of security becomes apparently more clear with a home video of the forty soldiers made the day before the recall referendum.


In the video, the soldiers are shown in a room decorated by a picture of Chavez and one of Simon Bolivar. There is a table in the middle covered with ¨No¨ signs a flower arrangement and a symbol of the GRAT unit. Their leader speaks out. The speech expresses love for Chavez and what he stands for. However, they say that those in the Casa Militar (in charge of presidential security) are shielding Chavez from the truth. They make accusations of corruption and ask Chavez to do for the Casa Militar the type of cleansing he did at PDVSA. They tell Chavez that this was the reason why tried to get into his office, they wanted to explain to him what was going on. The tone is eerie, recrimination, love and fundamentalism all in one. They tell Chavez they are not paid by the opposition. All of the soldiers join each other by the forearms and sign what is supposed to be the chant of their unit which includes dying for their country, dying for their leader…


 


Scary stuff, these guys sound like extreme fundamentalists. Trying to get a copy of the video to post.

On Mathematical studies of the recall vote and fraud: Part IV

September 2, 2004

A Prof. From Princeton and two from John Hopkins have done a calculation similar to that by Elio Valladares that I posted yesterday. Their conclusions are found here in English and while they are very similar quantitatively to Elio´s they differ in their conclusion.


They did a very similar calculation to Elio´s. but 1238 simulations only, compared to the 10,000 Elio did. Their results are very similar, they found the distribution had an average of 360.90 for the Si coincidences and 317 for the No coincidences. This means that the occurrence of the No ones is reasonable, but the one for the Si coincidences is less likely.


 


However, the authors feel comfortable that 2.3 standard deviations away from the mean are feasible and thus feel this proves little. Elio´s results are much more conclusive, it is unclear if it is because he made almost eight times more simulations, but in the interest of discussion and comparison, here are the results.


 


I continue to believe that simulations at the Center level would be more conclusive than these, as there seems to be a high concentration of coincidences at the center level.