Electoral Cheating in Venezuela, One Deputy At A Time

October 13, 2015

ballot

All of what I will write in this post can be found elsewhere, but I thought it was important to show and save it into this database of abuses and  rip-offs that have characterized Chavismo, as well as explain it in English. I am not trying to discourage people. I am just trying to show how Chavismo is moving all of its power to minimize the oppositions vote in December, without any ethics, morals and with blatant abandon.

To begin with, within the MUD, there used to be a party called MIN Unidad. In one of those strange moves, the Electoral Board, removed the Board of MIN Unidad, replacing them with others who claimed to be owners of that particular political country club. The MUD proceeded to suspend Min Unidad from the MUD, as it could not guarantee the “purity” and backing of the MUD by anyone named by the CNE.

Next thing you know, parties had to choose the location of their party on the upcoming ballot and MUD got to choose before MIN Undad. Where did MIN Unidad choose in the ballot above? Precisely next to the MUD Unidad location, as you can see in this blow up:

ballot2

a strategy clearly designed to fool voters into believing that MIN Unidad is part of MUD Unidad, which it ain’t.

You may think this is a dumb trick, but it works. Too many people get flustered when voting with these machines and can be confused by such subtleties, even if they have been warned about it. In fact, I went with my then elderly mother to help her cast her vote a few years back and even though she had memorized every step, once she was in front of the ballot, she had no clue as to what to do.

Clearly, the MIN Unidad location and design should nit have been allowed by the Electoral Board, but ethics is a four letter word among Chavistas, so there was simply no recourse and the position of MIN Unidad in the ballot stands for the upcoming Parliamentary election.

But it gets worse…

Let me now show you that ballot in better definition for Circunscripción 1 in Aragua State:

ballot3

In the MUD Unidad ballot is Ismael Garcia, a former Podemos leader who is clearly opposition. But wait! In the Min Unidad the candidate is also Ismael Garcia. What gives?

Well, the MUD registered Ismael Garcia and Jose Trujillo on August 7th. as its candidates. On August 15th. MIN Unidad registered its two candidates Eduardo Nava and Belkys Cermeño. But then, within the period that you are allowed to do it, MIN Unidad changed its candidates to Isamel Garcia (Not the same one as the MUD) and Freddy Solorzano.

Thus, when people see the ballots, they will not necessarily know which one is which. This is clearly an unethical attempt to deceive and take votes away from the “real” Ismael Garcia. While the law does not forbid two candidates with the same name running for the same office, the CNE should have at least made sure that voters could differentiate the two. But, of course, they hide behind the law and their lack of ethics.

The point of this article is that there are 1001 tricks that Chavismo will apply come Dec. 6th. but people are not being warned enough or not enough has been done about them. Instead we are supposed to go vote innocently into this unfair set-up with everyone thinking that we will get 80% of the votes and thus Deputies. I don’t believe this is a responsible way of handling this. People are supposed to shut up, move forward and maybe win, but maybe lose too.

I warned about all these tricks in August, if the above is not proof that Chavismo’s bag of rip-offs is not full of them, then let me sell you a used car. Really, it’s in great condition, low mileage, only one owner…cheap too!

 

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47 Responses to “Electoral Cheating in Venezuela, One Deputy At A Time”

  1. Roger Says:

    If cheating does not work, Maduro just came out with plan B. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/venezuela-s-president-maduro-says-he-won-t-hand-over-revolution?cmpid=yhoo.headline
    Funny, he did not mention any economic recovery plan!

  2. Ira Says:

    Nieves:

    Guilty conscience, or coward?

  3. NET. Says:

    Miguel, your analysis is excellent , as usual, as are many of the comments here. I believe the Regime is confident of winning the coming Legislative elections, and probably has been assured of same by JR, the initiator of Smartmatic Fraud. The reasons for their confidence are many,but include:1) Only 40% of Legislative seats will be elected in the 5 more urban areas of Distrito Capital/Zulia/Miranda/Carabobo/Aragua, which comprise 60% of the population where the Oppo may have more popularity/some voting center witnessing; but 60% of the Legislative seats will be elected in all other States, which are more downscale/rural, depend very heavily on Govt employment/Misiones/handouts/coercion, and where the Oppo is traditionally weak in popularity/voting center witnessing; 2) Notwithstanding the Oppo polls, much of the 80+% Venezuelan D-E population will be pressured/reluctant to risk their new just-increased by 30% minimum wage (as much as Bs. 16m with cesta tickets) by voting for the Oppo, particularly since many believe the voting center fingerprint machines can identify them/their vote; 3) The written cuadernos, I believe, have been eliminated for this election, which would be the only way to definitively prove electoral center fraud; and 4} Smartmatic fraud will be used as needed to guarantee a victory for the Govt., if needed. Venezuela has a claimed 99+% VOLUNTARY 18+ age voter registration, or 19+ million registered voters, compared, for example, to the U. S., with its 70 % or so voluntary 18+ voter registration, after a couple hundred years of democracy. I would be surprised if more than 50% of eligible 18+ age Venezuelans have actually registered to vote, leaving some 9 MILLION phony Venezuelan registered voters. NONE of the youths, and even some of the oldsters, in my extended Venezuelan family have registered to vote. In the at least 50% of voting centers where the Oppo will have no witnesses, these phony registered voters will be Smartmatic plugged in to vote as needed, with no written cuadernos available to prove otherwise, and will even result in some areas having more votes than men/women/children, as I believe RD mentioned in Congressional testimony. And, to all this, particularly the phony 99% eligble voter registration, the Oppo just gives a big yawn, as they recently signed off on the REP as being legitimate.

    • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

      The Devil still believes that JRSmartmatic can’t deliver more than 5% Fraud. I think most people highly underestimate what can be done with Chavez’s Olivetti/Sequoia/Dominion little machines, with CNE’s complicity and a secret “source code”, plus most paper trail will disappear, again.

      Turning 80% disaproval into a stupid 55% “MUD Victory” will be much easier than most people think. Ask any European expert, or the Princeton, Harvard guys.

      • moctavio Says:

        Well, I am fairly confident with my understanding of what happened in 2004 that it can not be over that, on top of that in the last two elections the opposition had witnesses in 93-94% of all polling places and those votes can not be hacked.

        But the point of this comment is that I do not expect the opposition to get more than 58’60% of the vote. The fact that Maduro has an 80% dissaproval, does not translate into the opposition getting 80% of the votes. When you look at the details of the polls, 48% of the people dont want to vote for either group and want to vote for independents. In the Consultores 21 poll, the vote intention for the oppoition is abut, if my memeory is correct, 57.5% or 58.5% of the vote. Add redistricting, trics and all that and I dont see the opposition getting more than that, but it ahs nothing to do with the machines.

        • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

          What happened in 2004 was exactly what they wanted, a small, measured Oficialista win, in extra-innings, late evening mysterious “prorroga” , just like in Brazil. They did not need to cheat more than that. Until now.

          I also think the opposition will get their first small bogus “victory”, but not for the same reasons you do. The 48% “undecided” is Chavistoide in nature, sure, but pissed-off enough to vote against Madurismo.

          Gerrymandering and all the other mundane tricks in the book, you bet, but much much e-Fraud with injected malware, low-tech and high tech than you expect. The Fraud this time will have to be Massive to turn 80% general arrecherismo anti-gobielno, into a meaningless “52/48%”. So they’ll have to use JR’smatics ruses much more. LOT do to with the funky, easy to hack Chavez machines.

        • NET. Says:

          Miguel, with all due respect, the Oppo did NOT have 93-94% witnessing in polling places in the last 2 elections. I, too, drank the Kool-Aid of LL in the last Presidential, when he promised virtually 100% coverage, but let slip post-election publicly, as reported, I believe in “El Universal” (I cut/filed the article, but am too lazy to find it), that the Oppo coverage was in the order of 45%. Last Presidential, I believe, had a claimed 40M machines, with some 5M “itinerant”, with no fixed geographical site; this Legislative election will have a claimed 49M machines, or a doubling from just a few years ago-no chance the Oppo will have great % machine coverage. And Tony, I don’t look for an Oppo victory at all in these Legislative elections. First, it’s not in the Regime’s DNA to let this happen. Second, the Regime has all the advantages/pressures, even now more than ever with the Estado De Excepcion in many areas, and they certainly can plug in their votes at will in the many non-Oppo witnessed machines. And, Third, these basically local Legislative elections, where the Interior weighs more than the larger urban areas in number of seats, favor the Regime; remember, the Oppo was supposed to pulverize the Regime in the also-local Gubernatorial elections not too long ago, due to widespread public discontent, and, in turn, were pulverized, by winning only 3 Governorships, with even Capriles barely squeaking by the Loser Jaua in Miranda.

          • moctavio Says:

            I could get you the list. We had witnesses in 97%, which by the time they were kicked out, barred etc, went down to 93-94%

  4. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    Latest efforts of Chavez’s Fraudmatic in Estonia.. (since no one else in Europe, or the USA, wants them:

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/12/estonian-e-voting-security-warning-european-elections-research

    Latest from Norway:

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/12/estonian-e-voting-security-warning-european-elections-research

    And that’s in civilized countries, with mostly ‘open-source’ coding..

    Lo que viene es candelation..

  5. pewpew Says:

    rotas
    opera
    tenet
    arepo
    sator

  6. LuisF Says:

    My apologies, i started writing in Spanish and got carried away, I trust everyone can read what I posted. Cheers.

  7. LuisF Says:

    El problema no es la trampa, es la falta de una reaccion a la misma por parte de la oposicion.

    La trampa sistemica, de el RP y las circunscripciones, y el masivo exodo de votantes, y tantos otros pelliscos que ocurren ahora mismo, antes del dia de la eleccion, son obviados y no son atendidos por la parte tecnica y comunicacional de la oposicion, a saber estas elecciones son al detal y cada cnadidato y partido esta ocupado de su pequena parcela para hacer campana, tomarse fotos, hacer un poquito de ruido etc.

    La maquinaria del regime esta centralizada en el adminsitrador electoral. Sera dificil que multitud de intereses , generalmente antagonicos o al menos poco alineados, de los candidatos opositores, puedan contra un hegemen centralizado.

    Los candidatos del regimen son figuras de reparto, caso patetico el supuesto empleado de estacionamiento Ismael Garcia II. y lo que importa es que los resultados practicos para la confirmacion de la asamblea y mas aun pra el mensaje del chavismo sea adecuado.

    Este saqueo se acaba cunado el venezolano se hastie y saque a patadas , o peor, al regimen del gobierno, y solo entonces podremos comenzar a entender la magnitud del fraude electoral de los ultimos casi ya, cuatro lustros.

  8. moctavio Says:

    Unfortunately, because of the dissapearance of the previous software that I used to use, the plots are not there.

  9. moctavio Says:

    Under “RR Models” on the left, you can find all of the references to posts that covered that, you can read all of the references there. With book, I was referring to a book by a statistics magazine that came out with RR modelling results. My blog is more complete on the subject than that book.

  10. pitiyanqui Says:

    I think the big tell for me is the fact that the government is going about business and making deals as though there was no way they could lose the election. The upcoming OPEC meetings, which will likely not change anything, wouldn’t have any palpable effect until after the first of the year when the new AN is seated. Likewise the continued attempts at outreach to China.

    Now, one may argue that in a normal democracy, the stewardship of the government, or at least the appearance of such, would override partisan demands. This is Venezuela, however, where the scorched earth policy would reign supreme should chavismo lose. Hell, they’ve even threatened as much time and again. I see no reason whatsoever why they would attempt to broker something that would give a future government continued manuevering room and which would be credited to the new AN rather than to their ongoing efforts.

    So this tells me one of two things: 1). They have complete confidence that they will win the elections, whether by fair or foul means. 2). There will be no elections and the current AN will continue sitting, and the constitution be damned.

    Personally, I still believe the second is far more likely than the first. They are just going through the motions of making it appear like there will be an election, so when they call it off, it will appear all the more like there was a real emergency causing the disruption. Even a continuance and extended delay benefits them as this wastes MUD resources while it allows them to accrue more for campaigning.

    • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

      Or 3) They measure the Fraud to a massive, yet somewhat “believable” 55% MUD “victory”, which of course, after a few more bribes, threats and Gerrymandering means absolutely nothing, and nothing changes. That’s why they keep saying “ganamos como sea” and are so comfortable.

      After the usual late-evening “prorroga” Smartmatic adjustments, they can concede small “defeat”, but remember, the MUD is also highly corruptible, starting with Ramos Allup.. Most of them can and will be bribed, as always.

    • Ira Says:

      I lean slightly toward option 2, but who is Maduro going to blame this new assassination plot on in order to suspend elections?

      Marco Rubio?

      But looking at how fucked up and disorganized this administration is, how about this for a possibility:

      Elections happen on Dec. 6 (my birthday!)….there’s only so much voting fraud they can get away with…and then we have a huge MUD victory that they can’t deny. So when do these new officials take office? Two months? A few weeks?

      Well, WITHIN this timeframe, PSUV still holds all the cards, and can reach into their bag of dirty tricks to maintain the status quo. In other words, fair elections never meant anything to Chavismo anyway, so why even bother to fake it?

      • John Says:

        Irrespective of who’s in power it has always been difficult to predict the shot term future. In fact the more time spent in Venezuela it’s a guarantee. My daily conversations usually included ” you won’t believe…….” or “I never saw that coming” or “I asked them to do this but they did that” and so on. Every day different.

        And this election is different. People are suffering.
        So here’s another option. If the election goes ahead a landslide for the Opposition. The smartified figures indicating an insignificant majority for the Opposition. And that would suit Chavismo. But Maduro and co. will fck it up. Someone will press the wrong button, someone will say the wrong thing and someone will disappear. It just wouldn’t be Venezuela without that surprise and as the field continues to narrow towards the end of the year the probability of a breakdown rises.

      • M Rubio Says:

        “I lean slightly toward option 2, but who is Maduro going to blame this new assassination plot on in order to suspend elections?

        Marco Rubio?”

        I resent that. 🙂

  11. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    The other crucial thing that even the Devil himself here underestimates, (a long-time Elections and Smartmatic Connoisseur), are Chavez’s under-utilized Machiavellian Olivetti-Dominion-Sekoia.. maquinitas envenenadas.

    For numerous reasons, you can ask anyone from Bill gates, to the Brazilian or Filipino people, to e-voting machine specialists, to el ‘Mago Smatmatic’ Jorge Rodriguez, to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/electronic-voting-machines/ to http://alekboyd.blogspot.com/2011/03/smartmatic-revisited.html

    As we will witness in about 50 days, Chavez’s smatmatic vulnerable machines will be used much more than other habitual means of Fraud before, turning 80% disapproval for into a laughable and meaningless 55% “victory” for the MUD.

    • moctavio Says:

      I dont underestimate them, I have them pegged for 5% of the vote difference, no more

      • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

        That’s underestimating the potential of massive e-fraud. Hopefully in future posts you can elaborate on your 5% Smartmatic Fraud limit. It’s very naive.


        • No blog or book has more info on the 2004 referendum than this one. All statistical studies, criticism etc are in it and that is the conclusion from all of the data and I believe that was the extreme.

          • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

            What book? Please give references to posts or book about it. I can assure you you are underestimating the diverse potential vulnerabilities of Chavez’s wicked machines. El Mago Smartmatic Rodriguez, su hermanita Delcy and TibiBitch did not have to use all their massive Fraud potential last time, in Vzla or Brazil (same “overtime” close results) . This time they’ll have to tap into their true fraud potential much more, just to come close to a 50% “defeat”.

            Your opinion and previous 2014 “conclusions” are valuable and respectable, but so are other opinions and studies, beginning with Harvard, Princeton, or.. the opinion of almost every European country, or

            http://www.bradblog.com/
            http://www.soberania.org/Articulos/articulo_3637.htm

            or many heavyweights of the opposition (I don’t agree with some, but:

            https://www.facebook.com/venezuela.voto.manual

            Many, many different ways to cheat with Smartmatic, from psychological intimidation to massive e-fraud via Malware hacks to hidden, blocked, “proprietary” internal codes.

            It’s a somewhat secret, true WMD, envisioned by the Castros and Chavez long ago, they just haven’t used it much at all, yet.

          • Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

            And for those who disagree with Europe, trust Chavez’s machines, and prefer Videos:

            http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6369

  12. Tony Tan Keng Yam Says:

    “..a strategy clearly designed to fool voters.”

    Of course, but you’re being too nice, as usual, it’s designed for the naive, incredibly ignorant, shockingly under-educated, (usually the poor, rural or “barrios”), the elderly, and the 6 Million enchufados: their Target Audience.

    That’s what bloggers, reasonable free thinkers, educated, somewhat intellectual people from the “first world” often do not understand. Chavismo doesn’t give a shyt anymore about what the opposition, int’l observers or the truly educated people think. We are not their intended audience when they constantly and blatantly lie, attempting to deceive. You often sub-estimate them. They are less stupid than we think. You are not their target audience.
    These voting tricks and the phenomenal lies are not designed for you.

    Mass deception is an ancient premeditated Populist strategy employed by disguised Cleptocracies like Castr-Chavismo, based on the galactic ignorance and under-education or ‘alphabrutization’ , brain-washing of the Pueblo majority.

    That’s the only way to explain these stupid ruses, daily inter-galactic turds that leaves many of us civilized people scratching our heads in disbelief. We’re not the audience. They don’t care. They lie on purpose, they cheat openly, shamelessly, descaradamente. It’s a plan, they know they get away with and it works for a specific target clientele.. the ignorant, usually the poor. Don’t be afraid to say it.

    That’s how you explain almost 17 years of CastroChavismo, a destroyed country, where 69% of the incredibly ignorant and/or corrupt populace still adores Chavez, claims to be “socialist”, including 20% or 6 Million Maduristas, today. Massive Greed, Ignorance and Corruption, thus lack of justice and total impunity Simple as that. But it’s all based on Pueblo Bruto, sorry to be blunt, someone has to be.


  13. …and the paper in 2023.

  14. moctavio Says:

    PSUV campaining today in Carabobo:

  15. IslandCanuck Says:

    Another story.

    The daughter of one of my neighbours has a small piece of land given to her by her family.
    She got all the permisos from the alcaldia to build a small house.
    Because she is quite without resources she went to the consejo comunal to ask for help in getting building supplies.

    A short time later someone appeared at her door and said they would supply all the building materials to build her house + once it was done they would equip it with all the products from the “Casa Bien Equipada” program.

    Wow! Nice, eh?

    Just one hitch. On election day she would be accompanied to vote. She must tell them she can’t read and this person would help her with her vote. She can, of course, read just fine.

    • Charlie Says:

      How many of these votes can they afford? Sounds like rather a lot of money for a single vote. I guess with everything else being so expensive, vote prices would also follow the inflationary curve.

    • IslandCanuck Says:

      Like Luis says – promise them the moon & then blame the derecho as to why they can’t make good on their promises.

      Maduro has really gone off the deep end in the last couple of days from blaming the oppos for the grenades & violence to last night saying the FMI has promised the oppos $60 billion to defeat him.

      This is what happens when you back the rats into a corner.

      • Odette Says:

        If I was the OP I would be talking to the IMF, & suppliers, & Credit holders, (except china) Red Cross, and putting out all kinds of “feelers” just to gauge the maneuverability available. ( acting like parallel Ministries pues )They will have to pass laws, get money released and get some kind of food on the tables of the pueblo-keeping in mind that any kind of import will take (at best) 60days to port. If the people can’t “feel” a difference in the short term they will storm the AN. Many, by that time will be on involuntary hunger strike, not pretty picture, it has gone to far. On the island it is probably worse. Public services have totally collapsed…

  16. moctavio Says:

    Not really

    • Ira Says:

      Then something else is very fishy.

    • Kepler Says:

      There are less than 112 Ismael Garcia in Venezuela according to 2011 CNE records. Do you want to do the maths about the probability?
      We should really explain it in detail for international journalists etc.

    • IslandCanuck Says:

      It was reported yesterday that he is an employee in a parking lot.

      • Ira Says:

        It means he was sought out by PSUV just for his name.

        Any history at all of political activism, which can be verified? And I don’t even give PSUV that much credit:

        I think they just slapped a new moniker on some shmuck to play the patsy.

  17. Ira Says:

    Is Ismael a common name there?


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