When I initiated the Puero Cabello Non-Baltic Index (PCNI) on Jan. 28th. my intention was to contribute some sanity to the claim that no ships were arriving to La Guaira by noting that Puerto Cabello was running about as usual with about 15 cargo ships or more in port on any given day (I only count cargo ships docked i the port, not tankers or others). At the same time, given that I was concerned about the possibility that in the near future imports could go down enough to be a concern, it was a way of monitoring how things were.
Unfortunately, only days after my first post, there was significant drop in cargo ships arriving in Puerto Cabello and even a couple of days of practically no ships in port as you can see in the graph above. From levels of 15 cargo ships in port, we are no running around 4 to 5 a day, a significant drop from the customary 15.
Given that I had no history, you may wonder if my series may simply be a seasonal effect, however, one of the readers of the blog sent me the series that he had from the first semester of last year and I can tell you that the average was above the level I started with and there were certainly no days as low as those that have been seen in the last two weeks.
This is a dramatic change and I would like to be optimistic in that there seems to be a pick up recently, but I have to wait for the data. In the meantime, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if the port was running above 15 ships per day last year on average and there was scarcity, things are indeed going to get worse soon in Venezuela…
(Just to make sure the methodology is clear: I go in http://www.marinetraffic.com once a day, the number of cargo ships docked in port may vary during the day by one or two, but have never seen it it change more than two and only once. I don’t know what the cargo ships are carrying)