(I wrote this post a week ago, but had no Internet)
It’s really a tragedy. The price of oil shot up and Chavez took advantage of it. He also produced more and took advantage of it again, producing heavy crudes. And sent lots to China in exchange for cash. He got more of the oil. And he bartered it, sold it and played with it and the oil companies. He toyed with the exchange rate, making it unsustainably low. He allowed the government to sell US dollars cheap. The government used one rate. Everyone else had to use a different one.
But then he died. And the oil price went down.
Nobody would lend Venezuela money. And everyone seemed against it.
And then Fidel died.
And then Trump won.
For how long..?
That is the question. Maduro does not have it easy.
His front man got caught. Chavez got away with many, many front men. And he played with the debt, which Maduro can’t.
When will things change?
I don’t know, but they will.
Not enough oil. Not enough money. Just wait. It is a matter of time.
Nobody is Chavista just because. There is money to be made, but it is getting harder. You need know-how, which they don’t have. They had it easy for a while.
So, they start again. Except it is harder this time.
Something has to give.