The Devil's Excrement

When I first wrote on May 29th. that Chaves did not really have a knee problem, I did this, because someone who has always provided me with good information called me to tell me he had something worse, without being specific. This person said that a few people knew about it, but nobody dared say anything, so I wrote a somewhat sarcastic post on the subject. Little did I know how fast things would move in the next month…

But we still don’t know what Chavez has and when was it that they realized he was sick. To attempt to shed some light on this, I have gone back and looked at Chavez’s pictures using one of his rags as the main source (Correo del Orinoco, Eva’s rag) and have added some more pics chronologically, including pictures from the videos to get an idea of the evolution of Chavez’ face and body until today.

One can clearly see the evolution in his weight and face, but it is not always clear, in fact, I think some picrures puported to be from the day before, were older. But I will let you be the judge.

However, I should note a funny statistic. In January, Chavze was on the cover of that newspaper, 16 times, He was only on it 5 times in February, then it jumps to 13 in March, but only 7 in Abril (Easter week?), dropping to 7 in May, 9 in June (seven in the fist nine days) and 10 so far in July. The scant coverage in February and April is suspicious, but he still looked healthy. Recall Alo Presidente was cancelled half the time between January 1st and April 30th.

Chavez was on the news in early May until May 9th. , then he disappears and reappears with a crutch and the knee story. Note that the crutch disappear once he went to Cuba.

First, let’s set a benchmark, Chavez on Jan. 1st, 24th., 28th. and May 1st, all of which seem to be before they knew what he had.

Note in particular how huge he is on the third picture taken on Apr. 28th.

Then the “knee” problem begins and below you see two pictures, one in an appearance that I can’t pin down the exact date for (on the left), in which he showed up dressed in black and with a crutch. Then, on May 23d. he appeared in the “Balcon del Pueblo” (picture on the right) with a crutch. My take is that he had had a first “procedure” by then in Venezuela, maybe just a biopsy or radiation, but he already looks thinner than above, but it is not clear cut.

Then he shows up on June 1st. (Picture form the day before, below on the left) wearing the blue and white track suit and two days later (picture on the right below) he meets with Lula. He looks better, no crutch by then, as he gets ready to go to Ecuador, Brasil and Cuba:

The next picture is on June 9th. in Brazil (left picture below) and the next one arriving in Cuba (right picture below), meeting Raul Castro, on the night of June 9th. to 10th. according to my estimates:

Chavez then really disappears and we see him again in a picture in Gramma published on June 19th. on the right below. He seems thinner and we were shown a video of unspecified date (picture on the right below and the next frame too), where you can see him thinner, particularly his body:

In the picture below, from one of the videos, he is with his daughter and looks thin (on the left). Then, we do not hear from Chavez again for ten days, on June 28th. , when he gives a speech (below on the right), which he read and he was clearly wearing make up.

My suspicion is that the first video we saw was before the second operation, the change is huge between the two pictures above. They made the first video, Chavez got worse and they decided to show it to calm things down, but at the time he was really at his lowest point. The moment he recovered he gave the speech. The only thing that contradicts this is the date of the newspaper, but you all can see the difference.

We then don’t see him for six days, when he arrived in Venezuela and was clearly not as thin, but looked weak (picture on the left below).

The next picture supposedly was taken on July 6th., but my feeling is that it came from the early days in June, before the operations.

On July 10th. we were shown videos or pictures of Chavez watching the soccer game (below on the left) and with his father and mother (below on the right). Again looking better.

The next two pictures are from July 14th and 15th.

Below are the pictures yesterday on Friday July 15th. requesting permission to leave and today where he looks better, but the big shirt hides how much weight he has lost if you compare with the first four pictures above.

From these, it is my take that they did something to him in Caracas before he left for Ecuador, Brazil and Cuba, around May 9th. They hid this behind his supposed “knee” problem, but knew he had to go elsewhere and left for Cuba, via the other two countries to hide the problem. In Cuba, he underwent two operations. The pictures with the Castro brothers i after the first one and then the videos and his first are after the second one. He has said that he was in intensive care, clearly this was after the second operation, between the 19th. and the 29th.

The mystery is why two operations and why intensive care after the second one. Either he got an infection after the first one, or they found during the first procedure much more than they could deal with without being prepared for it.

What do you think?

To Guillermo and to so many other dreamers…

Calle Real, Chuspa

In Spanish here

I “met” Guillermo Mantovani (@cplpesca) via Twitter, the same way he “met”the Head of Insopesca, the fishing Institute that has to approve the technical aspects of his project for him to obtain financing from the Government. The Head of Insopesca asked him to resubmit his rejected project, which was rejected again. I just asked him to send me the material on his project. While it is easy to write about macroeconomic numbers and distortions in the economy, it is the micro stuff that really tells the story about what is going on in Chavez’ Bolivarian Revolution. But in the end, both lead to the same conclusion, the revolution destroys in the name of ideology, but it is that same “ideology” that does not allow it to build anything. Everything is stuck in the empty and impractical minds of bureaucrats, who have never managed anything, but live comfortably on their Government salary and perks. Meanwhile, Guillermo and the people who could benefit from his project, wait the eternal promise of a non-existing revolution and the ever evolving and distorted ideology that is behind it.

Mr. Mantovani saw the town of Chuspa in the Coast of Vargas State for the first time in ’99, right before the mudslides that destroyed that State (another failure of reconstruction, even if the destruction can’t be blamed on the revolution). He liked the town and the area and felt moving to Chuspa would provide a good balance, an active retirement in a place that needed everything, a change of pace and a cleansing of the mind, far from what people call civilization. Slowly, he became an accepted resident of Chuspa.

His diagnose of the town was clear: Low levels of education, no healthcare, huge unemployment, sub-employment in fishing and few opportunities for women, which destroys their self-esteem and their lives. Mr. Mantovani got involved. He helped improve telephone services. Helped get some “Info-Centros” set up there to give people Internet access. He talked to hundreds of people, including Chavez who visited Chuspa in 2003. He participated in Mision Sucre and Mision Ribas. The road was improved after Chavez’ visit, but unemployment and under employment in fishing was pervasive. He started organizing the fisherman in the town and those nearby. When the Government invented coops, they already had two, the number reached eight. The interest in the coops on the part of the Government died, it was another Bolivarian fashion, he had to leave for two years, resources never arrived, the coops died. They are no longer there.

Kiosks along the Malecon, Chuspa

He never lost touch and when PDVAL was created, he got PDVAL interested in fishing and its products, they funded a center for stock-piling fish, 100 boats for the fishermen and promised a processing plant. Oil prices dropped, money was spent only in t-shirts, hats and transportation to political rallies. Nothing happened.

Mr. Mantovani decided then to start a company and submitted a proposal entitled: “Recovery and development of the socioeconomic structure of the Litoral central, via the activation of their tourism-fishing towns”. The plan contemplates to start a company that will be in full motion in 120 days, creating jobs, particularly for women, who can only aspire to have cleaning jobs from the regional Government. The goal was to create 700 jobs, between fishermen and the processing plant, including 220 jobs for women.

Juana’s Kiosk, Chuspa

The company would provide fishermen all of the materials, from gas, to bait, to the ice needed. It would set up the stock piling centers to work 24 hours a day and acquire the infrastructure necessary for processing. A turnkey, 5Ton/day plant would be purchased from a Spanish company and the company would set up distribution, including ice making in Chuspa, transportation to markets, a distribution center near Caracas.The company would buy 25 small boats and 15 “palangreros”, the type of boat that carries an array of hooks below it. The proposal details time frames, methods and even a savings plan and independence plans for the fishermen. It looks at the market and all of its possibilities, even the type of fish to be processed and sold, with emphasis in selling to PDVAL, small fish stores and if there is excess production to restaurants and larger markets.

The project requests Bs. 30 million in financing, about US$ 7 million at the official rate of exchange. The company is owned by Mr. Mantovani, but he has agreed to give 20% of the company to the Communal Council of Chuspa, once the financing is obtained. The company will direct 5% of its gross income for social responsibility and 5% to improve the conditions of personnel. The Chuspa communal council backs the project and it has other approvals from Government entities.

The problem?

In order to obtain financing, Insopesca, the National Institute for Fishing and Aquaculture has to give its technical approval of the project. The project was rejected once and Mr. Mantovani resubmitted after the exchange via Twitter with Mr. Gilberto Gimenez, President of Insopesca. Here is an excerpt of the second rejection, denying the “technical” backing necessary for the project to receive financing:

“The project is conceived under the concept of a private company, which leads us to suggest that models aligned with the new economic and productive policies be used. Even if the vision of the project is to administer goods and means of production for the fishermen, it sets up a situation which legally privileges the consortium, which promotes only one Director, as the only shareholder of the consortium (Did they even read the project???), which blurs the current context for the promotion of socio-productive organizations. It also describes a potentially monopolistic model, that is, under this scheme there will be a great power over the market, which will be the only one to own the product, the resources, the service and the goods, with the risk that the fishermen will return to the old scheme of exploitation and dependence on the boss to whom they will have to report”

So much for a technical evaluation of the project. It even sounds like they did not even bother to read it, since 20% of the company would be given to the communal council. The evaluation never even considers any of the parts of the projects proposed, its viability, the fact that it will generate employment in an area that has no sources of employment other than the local Government. It is just ideological “paja” by someone who has no clue as to even start running a project. To hell the inhabitants of Chuspa and the fisherman. Let them continue living a precarious, but ideologically “pure” life. So much for loving “the people”.

I bet those that asked for financing for setting up a red shirt or cap factory, got it. But Mr. Mantovani dared to dream, wanted to help, adapted his structure to the Government’s guidelines, coops then, communal council now. He also adjusted the structure so it would fit the local idiosyncrasies, customs and problems. He tried, but some bureaucrat shot him down in the name of ideology.

But, as Mr. Mantovani more or less said, either in his emails with me or one of the many documents he sent me: “It just seems as when it comes to facts, some of us are more socialist than others”

Drum Square, Chuspa

All pictures courtesy of Guillermo Mantovani

Today we were presented with another video which certainly convinces people that Hugo Chavez is alive, but he is definitely not well. You may want to watch the whole thing, but it is boring, here it is, for all you masochists or Chavologists out there:

The video is certainly made to convince us that Chavez is fine, showing him talking this time around and reading the headlines as “proof of life”, but the President is certainly thinner, less energetic and definitely recovering from something. What it is, is anybody’s guess at this time, but he disappeared for 18 days and right now he is still not well enough to either address the Nation or hold the Summit to celebrate Venezuela bicentennial next week on July 5th. That is  a total recovery time of 24 days total, not common in surgery even for very serious procedures unless there is a follow up treatment that knocks you out.  The Summit has been officially cancelled, even if Chavez could still try to show up for the military parade that day.

And as La Patilla showed, a key fact about the President’s health is seen in the first few seconds of the video above, when Chavez is shown walking out of the building followed by a wheelchair, the speculation being that he got out of it right before the video began. You can also see the wheelchair in the distance in minute 3:20 or so of the video. But here it is in the first few seconds of the video:

since Chavez is walking towards Fidel and greets him later in the video, it follows that he was brought out in the chair and it was kept nearby just in case and to move him around in the parts of the meeting between Fidel Castro and Chavez which are not shown in the video.

What is clear is that, as I suggested a couple of days ago, Chavez has been very ill, is recovering and receiving “strict medical treatment” as stated in the press release cancelling the Summit. The videos seem aimed more at Chavismo than the rest of the world, sort of sending the message he is still around, don’t stir the pot and follow the party line or else.

But there is no question that things will be different if Chavez’s illness is chronic or serious and will diminish his ability to campaign and/or run the country. This changes the game. With a Chavez with diminished popularity, the upcoming campaign already required his full attention and convincing the people to vote for him. If what he has is a long term problem, and his three week disappearance indicates that whatever it is, it is not trivial, then not only his supporters, but his collaborators will begin questioning whether he should be or not the revolution’s candidate in 2012. This in itself may result in a weaker effort by Chavez’ supporters, worried about their long term future and stability and the possible demise of the Bolivarian revolution.

In fact, this proof of Chavez’ life, resulted in another rally in the country’s debt today. A weakened Chavez is better than no Chavez at all, which would lead to uncertainty and a possibly chaotic future for the country between now and December 2012. And the possibility of a Chavez exit after December 2012, kept investors bullish about the prospects for the country’s debt.