The Devil's Excrement

The new Vice-President Jorge Rodriguez started his tenure in his new position with the same cynical attitude as when he was the President of the Electoral Board. After the 19% plunge in the Caraca Stock Market, he told the press:

“There was no “desplome” (sharp fall or plunge) of anything, the Stock Market is more solid than ever, the economy is more solid than ever…”

Well, if the trading of the stock of Electricidad de Caracas had no been halted yesterday after the first 20% drop, I am sure the index would have fallen even more than 19%. Moreover, the nationalization of CANTV and Electricidad de Caracas represents a severe blow to the exchange, since two of the most important stocks in the country will no longer trade, shrinking the size of the stock market capitalization to a puny US$ 5.5 billion  from an already small US$ 8.2 billion.

I guess that much like the reality of what is happening in the country, the strategy is that if Government officials say something a sufficient number of times, it magically becomes the truth (1992 coup, conspirancies, plots to kill Chavez and the like). In that spirit, the the devil ratifies that the stock market did not drop yesterday and the parallel exchange rate did not reach Bs. 4,000 to the dollar for the first time in history.

Oh! I forgot, there is no inflation in double digits either.

Brutal Power by Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

It is curious, but the person that is going out of his mind the most with the case of TV station RCTV is Chavez himself. His reaction to the proposal by OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza, besides the brutal and unacceptably inconsiderate on the personal level, speaks about his psychological impossibility of carrying out a debate in a civilized tone.

The President does not tolerate the smallest disagreement. At the first sign of one, his fuses blow up.

Insulza, who should be congratulated for the pertinence of his words, made a moderate statement, alerting about the political repercussions (which he did not even qualify) that a measure like that of canceling the concession of RCTV would have. Obviously, it is not a threat; it is the ratification of a fact. Only the paranoid interpretation of Chavez can conceptualize it that way.

Or is it that Chavez imagines that liquidating a TV channel is not an action full of consequences? Chavez who meddles in everyone’s affairs, who gives opinions without blinking and on occasions, with lots of ignorance, about the policies of others countries, immediately covers himself with the national flag and thunders against a supposed interference of Insulza in our internal affairs. The person who made the statement was not Bush but someone of whom Chavez said in April of last year that “we have powerful reasons” to back him to be Secretary General of the OAS.

The Venezuelan Government lobbied for a “viceroy of the Empire” as he now qualifies the man that he voted fro? Insulza called for reflection and to review the decision. An understandable proposal which did not even enter into the legal or judicial aspects of the matter, but it simply stopped at the political consideration of the matter, and which, nevertheless, was responded to with a personal offense and with it the well-known “pseudo patriotic” argument. Chavez, of whom it is said understands that he put his foot in his mouth at the UN, will surely perceive soon how counterproductive his insults against Insulza will result. Give time to time.

The RCTV matter is not simply an “internal” matter, The repercussions of shutting down a TV channel go much further than our borders and pertain to all countries. It is not a matter only of defending a TV channel but of rejecting an authoritarian style, autocratic and brutal in its exercise of power. If the Secretary general of the OAS did not give his opinion on that, that would be out of the ordinary.

A Government like Chavez’ which is advancing an international policy as interventionist as the current one, can’t go later and rent its clothing when from the outside someone criticizes it or comments on its actions. If the Secretary General of the OAS of today, which is not the one of the sixties, could not “interfere” in matters as grave as the closing of an important TV station in any of our countries, then we certainly would have to dissolve the interamerican organization.

Integration and multilateralism have a cost, which all countries pay, of a relative reduction of their national sovereignty. Now, all countries have something to do with all countries. Even if Chavez is not pleased with this, he has to respect the rules of the game.

Markets in Venezuela plunged and the effect was felt elsewhere, as investors were reminded of why these markets are called “emerging markets” and how politicians’ whims can change and turn the direction of the markets in no time.

What was clear was that Chavez’ remarks on Monday were improvised and reflected conversations within the administration, but they were certainly not ready to announce anything But, as usual, the autocrat can not contain himself on a stage and besides his insults to the church, the OAS Secretary General and anyone that opposes or disagrees with him, he also let out plans that were apparently not ready to be revealed.

And it was the lack of detail about the plans for nationalization that shook the markets. First of all, Chavez was only specific about the telephone company CANTV, which he ordered nationalized. CANTV is 29% owned by US based Verizon, which had reached an agreement with Mexican telecom magnate Carlos Slim to sell its stake at US$ 21 per share traded in the New York Stock Exchange. That sale was being held up since June by the Venezuelan telecom and anti-monopoly regulators, which kept asking for more information without reaching a decision. Under Venezuela’s market laws, an offer like that had to be extended to all shareholders of the company under the same conditions, which had driven the price of the company’s stock near the $20 level.

But Chavez did not say anything yesterday about compensation to the shareholders, or even if they would be compensated, which dropped the stock from US$19.83 to US$9.50 in early trading, before it bounced back above US$ 12.1, certainly below the US$ 21 promised by Slim’s group.

But if there was confusion about CANTV, Chavez’ others threats of nationalization were even less defined. He stated broadly that everything that was privatized had to go back to the Government, which would involve all sorts of companies, including steel maker Sidor, which is owned by Ternium. Even more confusing was his mention of Electricidad de Caracas explicitly, which was purchased by US based AES, but was never owned by the Government since electricty came to Venezuela. It was simply a private transaction in which AES offered to buy shares from all shareholders willing to sell. Even more ironically, Chavez made it sound like that transaction took place long ago, in the evil days of the fourth Republic, but this was initiated, approved and completed during the Chavez presidency and he once hailed that same transaction on the steps of the Presidential Palace as he hugged the President of AES. Which simply goes to show that eight years later, Hugo Chavez still is improvising and planning what he wants to do and that the project is simply about Hugo Chavez.

One immediate impact of the measure is simply the almost certain death of the already moribund Caracas Stock Market. Curiously, it was the Government itself which helped revive it last year, first by changing the savings plans of companies and Government institutions to allow investments in stocks, as well as hailing, authorizing and promoting a secondary offering of Electricidad de Caracas shares in the amount of US$ 90 million, which was purchased mostly by small investors in July 2006.

Shares of both CANTV and Electricidad de Caracas were halted from trading today for 48 hours as the the former military officer that was put in charge of the Securities Commission asked investors to remain calm, “don’t sell” and wait for more details to be announced tomorrow by Chavez. In any case, the Caracas Stock Exchange dropped today 18.6%, after Electricidad de Caracas was halted after a 20% drop. If the stock had been allowed to trade it would have dropped even more, pushing the index even lower. The parallel rate jumped near Bs. 4,000 to the US dollar, almost twice the official exchange rate.

Chavez’ desire for control has now been extended to these two companies (and who knows what more!) in a clear sign that the President does not understand how times have changed. When CANTV was privatized in 1990, it was a fixed line operator with some 2.2 million lines. Today, the company has 3 million fixed lines and over 5 million cell phones. But there are two more cellphone operators which combined with CANTV reach 50% of the Venezuelan population, thanks to prepaid cell phone cards. Thus, CANTV is no longer the monopoly it was in 1990 and, if and when, it is run by the state it will become inefficient and badly managed and the two competitors it has will simply clobber the company in the market place, rendering CANTV worthless in the hands of the Government. The same is true for trunking, data and Internet services. Competitors will see the nationalization of CANTV as simply a business opportunity in the face of a company which will certainly become politicized and slow under the new revolutionary management. (Just imagine Chavistas jockeying to be on CANTV’s Board or “participate” in an equipment contract)

And in Internet services, I am told half of the traffic leaves the country via routes different than CANTV so that fears of Internet control are largely exaggerated.

What is clear is that rather than going towards a “new” model, Chavez seems to want to go to a model that is so IVth. Republic that one does not know whether to laugh or cry. Chavez’ idea of XXIst. Century Socialism seems to be longing for how Venezuela was run in the days of his youth, ignoring the effects of technological advance and globalization, as well as its total failure.

Thus, in a country with more than 50% poverty and a collapsing infrastructure, Chavez chooses to spend money elsewhere in his continued belief that we are such a rich country that we can do all things at once. Ironically, oil was down sharply today before recovering partially at the end of the day.

But what is perhaps more worrisome about all the announcements is that Chavez has asked for extraordinary powers, his second enabling law since 1998. Worrisome, because one does not know what will come out of it. One has no clue as to what Chavez can come up with during that year where he will have the ability to legislate at will.

Meanwhile, the whole episode clearly proves, not shows, that Chavez is not only not a democrat at all, but he is not even interested in talking about the issues with his own supporters. The National Assembly members will become a decoration for one year, as he legislates for them. They have not been allowed to discuss these issues, they were told what to do, in the same manner they were told they will have a single party from now on. And if you don’t like it, well, good riddance, as the Chavez praying mantis effect has had a great run during the last week.

Thus, for all the mention of the “people”, “participatory” democracy and the like, in the end, it is all about Hugo Chavez and what he thinks and wants. The model is whatever it may be today or tomorrow in Chavez’ mind, but nothing can be assured beyond that. Yesterday it was Venevision that was conspiring against him. Today it is RCTV. Tomorrow who knows, it may be this blogger. What is clear is that Chavez means less democracy, less freedom of speech, more state control, less power to the “people”, less respect for human rights or international law or institutions. Autocracies are like that and Hugo Chavez’ is not going to be an different. Today markets plunged in Venezuela and so did the country’s democracy.

And the mos unfortunate comment yesterday had to come from the new Minster of Finance Rodrigo Cabezas, who said that:

“Venezuela will not be governed in the second term by economic groups, particular interests, but the people will govern”

I certainly hope Cabezas will tell us which economic group ran Venezuela in the first eight years of the fake revolution led by Chavez. What did he mean?

And then in the afternoon, the autocrat Hugo Chavez announced that he will ask the National Assembly for extraordinary powers for one year so he can legislate by decree and at will, essentially anointing him as the King he wants to be. Chavez said he would use these powers to change a few things in Venezuela such as;

–Nationalizing the telephone company CANTV, which is 28% owned by Verizon but was the subject of a takeover by a group of companies owned by Mexican Carlos Slim at $21 per share. Chavez did not say whether he would pay for it or not.

Clearly, after dumping more than US$ 200 million in trying to start a state telecom company and not completing many phone calls, Chavez has decided to short circuit the process and go back to the wonderful system of having an inefficient state run telephone company. I guess he misses the times when olny one in three phone calls could be completed and it would take at least a year to get a telephone.

–He said he would nationalize the electric companies that were privatized. I guess nobody told him that Electricidad de Caracas was not privatized, but change from one set of private hands to another. (By the way that sale took place under the Government of ….Hugo Chavez himself!!!) The only electricity company that was indeed privatized was the Electric company of Nueva Esparta in Margarita Island and maybe the US company that bought that will be very happy to give it back anyway.

–He said he would abolish the commercial code which regulates legally how transactions are made in the economy.

–He said that he would remove the independence of of the Central Bank (which is almost non-existent) which he put into his own Constitution in 2000.

Finally, Chavez used his best Idi Aminesque diplomacy to call the Secretary General of the OAS a “pendejo” which benevolently can be translated as dumbass. Just to makes sure it was understood Chavez said that Inzulsa was a pendejo from the p to the o. Chavez also asked for Inzulsa’s resignation. For once, I may agree with the epithet used by Chavez given the customary position by the OAS on Venezuela’s affairs.

Just another day in the fake revolution!

So today we started the day with the statements by the President of Government sponsored TV channel Telesur and former Minister of Communications Andres Izarra where he justifies the idea that the President can decide to shut down media at will:

“A Court? They can go to a Court and appeal. That is a decision by the President, fully…That is totally valid and why not?”

Of course, no mention is made of the independent institutions which regulate the media and are supposed to independently decide on such matters. Or the laws which regulate such matters. The autocrat rules Venezuela like a King; he is the Law, quoting an infamous French king.

But, of course, it is all fully justified, because “what we propose is to go towards a communicational and informational hegemony of the state. To build a hegemony in the Gramcsian sense”

Later, Izarra tries to get out of what this proposal means, but Gramcsi, besides being a Communist, clearly spelled out that the purpose of that hegemony was to dominate and even eliminate the other side and the opinion of others. Hegemony is not what he defines later as building the means to convince, it is building the system to dominate the other side, not only by “convincing”, but also by overwhelming the media and squashing opponents. A sort of democratic totalitarism or some screwed up, mixed-up concept like that-An oxymoron if I ever saw one.

In closing, Izarra justifies his own personal violation of the law on the day of the election by saying that Reuters (which is not a TV station or Venezuelan based or regulated) and some Spanish media (press and ditto) violated the law the day of the election. Thus, criminal acts by others justify your own acts in the perverse and totalitarian logic of this Goebbelian strategist of the fake revolution.

The Government continues on its path to turning Venezuela into a totalitarian state by barring free speech, limiting dissent and threatening those that dare speak in order to create fear so that others don’t speak out. Free speech is not simply whether people say or not certain things publicly, but whether they fear saying it or not. And in Venezuela there is a lot of fear even if I am able, for now (por ahora!) to write these words.

The Radio Caracas Television case is the latest and most blatant example of how freedom of speech is being threatened by te autocrat Hugo Cahvez. The concession will not be renewed simply because Chavez does not like dissent or criticism. RCTV has been critical of the Government repeatedly, that is what freedom of speech is all about, It is not a matter of RCTV opposing or not the Government, it is a matter that one of the roles the media plays in any democracy is to criticize what is wrong with a Government, not for the sake of being critical, but in the hope that someone with responsibility will react to the criticism and change whatever is not working or is not being done properly.

But autocrats do not like to be criticized, they think they are perfect and attempts to point out what is wrong are considered destabilizing and threatening to the Constitutional order. It is a movie that has been seen too often in Latin America and is being repeated today in Venezuela. People protest, bridges fall down and people’s rights are violated, but the press and the media remain silent about these events, because they are afraid of the reaction against them by the Government.

The RCTV case is emblematic of what is to come. The President himself decided that the concession will not be renewed, bypassing the rule of law and denying the company that owns the concession their right to due process. Hugo Chavez calls the owners of the TV station or those that run it coup mongers, but no court of judicial instance has ever accused those that work there of conspiring, participating or inciting others to overthrow the Government. It is even unclear whether the measure is aimed at the President of RCTV, Marcel Granier, the owners of the company or the just the company itself.

But day after day, Government officials other than Chavez come on TV to ether ratify or back the measure against the TV station. Each one uses his or her own reason, ignoring the laws and/or the institutions that are supposed to enforce them. The Minister of Information accused RCTV the other day of violating the Social Responsibility Law, the so called “muzzle” Bill that was approved by this Government to limit freedom of speech and contain criticism. But now that Chavez won by a large percentage the recent Presidential election, even form is being bypassed, a very worrisome sign of what is to come.

TV station RCTV has never been charged with violating the Social Responsibility Law. The institution responsible for enforcing that law is CONATEL, the telecom regulator, which has yet to ever charge, least of all find guilty the broadcast company RCTV of violations of the law. If it did, RCTV would have to the right to due process and defend itself of the accusations, which has not happened either. The rule of law has been bypassed and a capricious decision has been made. RCTV is guilty in the absence of due process and let it be a warning to other TV stations that dare criticize the incompetent revolution or its leader.

Not content with this, other Government officials, curiously former military like Chavez, hold a press conference no only to back Chavez’ decision, which may be interpreted as sucking up to the big boss, but to ask him to go further and establish “exhaustive controls for the radio and print media”, proposing that newspapers also need to have a concession under the control of the Government. Talk about fascists minds and attitudes!

Thus, freedom of speech is not just being threatened in Venezuela. Freedom of speech and the right to dissent are being squashed by totalitarian-minded men who would think nothing of repression and human rights violations if and when it was needed. Thus, quietly, Venezuela, once a beacon of true democracy and freedom of speech in Latin America has fallen under the control of a militaristic cadre that can not tolerate differences of opinion and wants to suppress dissent.

If RCTV’s concession is not renewed, it would be only the second time in Latin America’s recent history that a TV station has had its concession revoked. The previous one, by Dictator Fujimori in Peru, was eventually turned over by international courts after Fujimori was overthrown, but unless Venezuelans rise to defend their rights of “free and plural communication, to opportune, truthful and uncensored information and freedom of belief” guaranteed in Articles 58 and 59 of its Constitution, no amount of international outcry will stop a Government that seems determined to withhold those same rights from “the people” and rub out enemies and critics when it’s convenient.

Today we also got a new Minister of Finance as President Chavez replaced his trusted friend Nelson Merentes with the Head of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly Rodrigo Cabezas. This is clearly an improvement as Merentes is a mathematician with little knowledge on economic matters and Cabezas is actually an economist, a rarity in the Venezuelan Finance Ministry. The negative part is that Cabezas has strange economic ideas. He was actually the one that invented the concept of excess international reserves, but he combined that with the idea that the Government should increase spending constantly in order to have the country grow. This is the combination that has actually been implemented and the excess monetary liquidity actually drove inflation up sharply in 2006 with the CPI closing at 17% and food inflation at 26%. It will take an incredible balancing act for Cabezas to get the country out of this trap without a major devaluation.

It is an improvement because Merentes would have had no clue as to what to do. It is also my hope that Cabezas will eliminate the sale of dollar bonds to the banks which I have described as the biggest source of corruption in the country’s history. Cabezas has already named as his Vice-Minister a former military officer and Chavez’ buddy, Rafael Isea, who participated in the ’92 coup and was Chavez’ assistant from 1995 to 1997. One wonders if he is there to make sure nobody sticks their hand in the till. I hope that is the case.

By now, most Ministers are concerned that their job is not secure. Merentes has been used by Chavez as a wildcard, naming him to five different Ministries, so that it took people by surprise that he was replaced. Some people are surprised by Jose Vicente Ranges’ demise, however one of the stories going around is that he asked to be removed, while others claim that he had spoken against not renewing the RCTV concession, which irked Chavez.

Thus, expect more shuffling to take place before next Wednesday when Chavez will be inaugurated for his third period as President and he assembles his new Cabinet.

In another sign that the revolution is about to deepen and will be more radical, the cynical Jose Vicente Rangel is out as Vice President of Venezuela and the former President of the Electoral Board, the “impartial” Jorge Rodriguez is in, now recovered from his car accident. If ever there was a man from the Vth. Republic that has exhibited his newly found wealth, it is Rodriguez who moved into a million dollar apartment recently and crashed his new Audi in the late hours a few weeks ago. So much for the Government fighting corruption or the appearance of corruption.

As a bonus, Pedro Carreño, he of “the CIA is spying on us via the Direct TV set top boxes and Montesinos is dead” fame will be the new Minister of Interior and Justice as announced by Chavez tonight. I guess Carreño qualifies to be the head of the “intelligence” police in the incompetent revolution.

It is truly ironic that Hugo Chavez and his cohorts used to make such a big deal about the lack of transparency at the country’s oil industry. In the “old” day of the bad IVth. Republic, financials were handed in on time, PDVSA sold its oil with no intermediaries, nobody questioned the country’s oil production and contracts and agreements were signed with prior approval of the National Assembly, called then Congress.

Not anymore…

Now, we have no clue as to how much oil production is, PDVSA now sells oil via intermediaries who have a profit margin known only to the men at the top, Ramirez and his cronies negotiate the country’s oil in secrecy and privacy and nobody knows what is happening to the country’s gasoline production.

It is more of an involution that a revolution…

As I reported earlier, the country’s gasoline consumption has now become a mystery. Veneconomy’s analysis of the 2005 financials as published n the local press by PDVSA are simply incomprehensible. Domestic consumption was supposed to be 506,000 barrels a day in 2005, up only 4% from 2001, despite the fact that some four hundred thousand cars cars were added to teh roads from 2002-2005. Even stranger, when you subtract exported gasoline from production, which should give you consumption in Venezuela, you get 281,000 barrels, suggesting that something very strange is going on in PDVSA’s numbers. Indeed, from those numbers, the only possible conclusion is that the country is now importing gasoline to satisfy it’s own needs as its refining capacity seems to be in real trouble.

Well, last Thursday, reporter Edgar Ang of Reuters reported that Venezuela simply paralyzed its exports of gasoline to the US in October, according to the data from that country’s Energy Information Administration. Ang reports that due to the operational problems at the country’s refineries no ships have been seen leaving for the US from Venezuela carrying gasoline, after September exports to the US were 480,000 barrels. According to the report Venezuela only exports gasoline to Caribbean countries.

In 2000, Venezuela’s exports of gasoline to the US reached 2 million barrels a month, but were below one million a month until the suspension in October.

The main problem seems to be with the Amuay refinery, which had to be stopped for two and a half months and is reportedly only producing a fifth of its capacity.

Thus, the “roja, rojita” PDVSA is not only incapable of producing sufficient gasoline to supply Venezuela, but higher margin exports have now been lost. But what is worse is that the ever dwindling gasoline production of the country is being treated as a state secret, much like the financial data of the country and the negotiations and information about oil and gas joint ventures. More remarkably, the local media seems to make no reports about it.

Another lie by the fake revolution.