The Devil's Excrement

The Constitutional Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court just ruled the omission by the National Assembly in choosing the Electoral Board and gave the Assembly ten days to act on it or it will be forced to choose it. The Hall said that if the Assembly does not fullfill its role, then it will name an Electoral Comission (CNE) within the next ten days. The Court argued that it is the guarantor of the Constitution and since the Assembly has not reached the required two thirds consensus it had to step in. The ruling says that the new CNE would be only temporary, but its decisions would be binding and that those chosen by the Court may or not come from the 86 names proposed to the National Assembly. If the Assembly does not name the CNE, there should be a working one by Aug. 24th. which will guarantee that, if all is in order, the recall referendum may take place before the end of the year. A very positive and necessary (not sufficient!!) step to preserve democracy in Venezuela!

While I have been more optimistic lately about the possibility of the recall referendum taking place this year, I can’t help but be bothered by today’s article by Carlos Blanco “Maximo Peligro” (Maximum Danger) in today’s El Universal. Blanco, who is usually very well-informed, says that he has been told that Chavez has reached an agreement with Justuce Jesus Cabrera of the Constitutional Hall of the Supreme Court, so that the Hall will not object the bill being considered by the National Assembly to expand the number of Justices in the Court from twenty to thirty. In this manner, Chavez will say he had nothing to do with changing the composition of the Court, which in turn would “legally” block any effort by the majority of the people to hold a referendum and which would perpetuate this stupid “revolution”. Thus, in the next few weeks we will have to watch if the Supreme Court bill is accelerated in the National Assembly as a sign that this plot is moving forward.

While the opposition sometimes does not coordinate well its campaign against President Hugo Chavez, one issue that I believe is having a strong impact on the population is the Cuban issue. There are many reasons for this, first and foremost, Venezuelans have never been enamored of the Cuban revolution and Fidel Castro is a mythical image mostly among academic left-wingers who by now mostly oppose Chavez anyway. According to polls, 91% of Venezuelans do not want the country to move politically towards anything resembling the Cuban revolution. The second reason is that there is a xenophobic element in Venezuela towards immigrants, particularly if they are coming to take jobs away from Venezuelans as both Cuban medical doctors and alphabetizers are doing. This is nothing new, from the Spanish immigrants of the 50’s, to the Portuguese of the 60’s, the Argentineans and Chileans of the 70’s to the Colombian’s of the 80’s, Venezuelans have always felt that the Government should not allow so many people in, even if they themselves were not willing to take many of the same  jobs. (Is this an almost universal phenomenon?). Thus, Chavez and his cronies are making a big political mistake in bringing in these people and making the programs sound so purely Cuban. With so many unemployed Venezuelan teachers and doctors, why emphasize the Cuban aspect like they have? Moreover, they continue to do so at every step. Recently, there were charges that a baby was not given proper care by a Cuban doctor who gave him aspirin and the kid died of Meningitis later. I have no clue if this is true or not, but the government has tried to defend the issue even arguing that the clinic where the kid was being taken care of had no resources in a country where all Government medical facilities are facing the same problem. Even the Doctor himself accepted to give an interview saying that when he saw the kid three days before he died, there was no infection. Today, the mayor of the Libertador District of Caracas said it was not true that some doctors were deserting the program, a charge that even I had not heard, and believe me; I read almost every local newspaper with care. The issue simply does not go away, as the Government would like, and today Fidel Castro himself came into the fray saying things (Thanks to RMG for the link) that will simply not help Chavez and are already being used by the opposition as an intromission in Venezuelan affairs by the Cuban leader. Not only did Castro express his total admiration for Chavez, but he went too far saying that the Cuban doctors are here to stay and accusing the clinics that belong to the Caracas Mayor of incompetence. Thus, the Cuban issue may be quite important going forward. It is clear that the opposition has been emphasizing the state of the economy and crime as a way to reduce support for the President, but no issue may do more damage to Chavez than this one, at a time when polls indicate that 61% Venezuelans “think” they are right wing. Clearly in a country where most people are left wing, somehow the center has been misplaced by many. My sense is that no more than 4-5% of Venezuelans are what would be considered elsewhere as “rightwing”, but this is simply one of the consequences of the anti-Chavez attitude, since he represents the “left” most people do not want to be anywhere near him.

According to a report in today’ El Universal, in the first quarter of this year the Venezuelan Government spent 5.86 trillion Bs. which is higher than the 3.92 trillion of the similar quarter a year earlier. Now, if the economny shrank by 29% in this quarter, how could the Government do this? Easy, for each Bs. 100 that the Government spent, 27 came from proceed from placing internal debt. Moreover, according to an Economist from Catholic University, there was a decrease of funds spent in compulsory budget items and an increase in discretional ones. The economist concludes: ” If this dynamic continues, the problem of financing the deficit will only get worse, with negative consequences for inflation and salaries”. God help us!

In another display of anti-democratic behavior, pro-Chavez Deputies in the Finance Committee of the National Assembly blocked the possibility that the Director of its own economic Economic Office ask the Ministry of Finance any questions. This is not only undemocratic, but violates the regulations of the office itself that says that the office has voice but not vote in any legislative committee on all budgetary and financial matters. The Head of the Economic Office, Francisco Rodriguez, who has a Ph. D. from Harvard and was a Professor at the University of Maryland, was chosen for the position by the Chavistas when the former Head, Gustavo Garcia, became uncomfortable for the Government. While Rodriguez was sympathetic to the Chavez project initially, he has become a nuisance to the Chavistas with a stream of reports highly critical of the Government’s economic policies.

That Chavez and his cohorts will try to use any dirty trick, tackle and twist to avoid a recall referendum has been known for quite a while. The appearance of legality began being used against democracy in Venezuela in January 23d. when the Venezuelan Supreme Court barred a consultative referendum from taking place by ruling not on the merits of the referendum itself but on the Electoral Board (CNE) that would organize it. The political nature of that decision was demonstrated by the fact that the Vice-President announced it even before the Court itself had held the audience with its decision. That remarkable decision told the Electoral Board that it could not hold any election until a new Board was elected by the National Assembly. With it, the Highest Court in Venezuela suspended our right to vote until the Chavez controlled Assembly names a new Board. Five months have passed and Venezuela has only been a democracy in name as the right of Venezuelans to hold elections simply does not exist.

It is interesting that it was Chavez himself who last year, when the opposition was promoting the consultative referendum, would say that the opposition should wait until Aug. 19^th 2003 when it could have a recall referendum on his mandate. Many abroad did not understand why the opposition wanted to hold a consultative referendum, the reason was simple, Chavez claimed to have a mandate for his “revolution” from the people, however, the people did not vote for what he interpreted to be his mandate but for an end to corruption, crime and better Government, none of which he has delivered. Thus, the opposition reasoned, were Chavez to lose the consultative referendum he could no longer claim to have a mandate from the people. But we were never able to vote on it.

And if Chavez has his way, we will never be able to vote on the recall referendum either. As the fateful date of Aug. 19 th.  is getting closer the Chavez Government has been speaking and acting as if the recall referendum was an invention of the opposition with no foundation, despite the fact that it was Chavez himself who introduced the concept in the Venezuelan Constitution. Of course, he never believed when his popularity was at its peak that the conditions for a recall referendum against him would ever be fulfilled.  But they are, pushing Chavez and major figures of his Government into saying the referendum will not take place, should not take place and will not take place. This includes the highest ranking members of the Venezuelan military who should not even speak about such matters. But such is the state of this pseudo-democracy under the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.

Last night, Chavez was at it again when he once again forgot about the principle of separation of power issuing legal opinions that are simply meant to intimidate and confuse the population. Chavez said that only those that voted or had the right to vote in the 2000 Presidential election could vote in a recall referendum. Why does Chavez say this? He is trying to stretch Article 72 of the Venezuelan Constitution that says that all electoral mandates are recallable after the mid-point of the term for which a person was elected. The article also says “When a number of voters equal or larger that elected the official were to vote in favor of revoking, as long as the number of voters taking part in the referendum is equal to or larger to 25% of the registered voters….”  Note that the article talks about a number of voters, it does not specify that they had to vote in the election which gave the official the mandate in the same manner in which the second part of the article talks about registered voters. In any case, Articles 62 through 64 of the Constitution would bar any alternate interpretation when they say:

Article 62: All citizens have the right to participate in public matters…

Article 63: Voting is a right…

Article 64: All Venezuelans that are 18 years of age or older who are not barred politically or incarcerated have the right to vote…

Thus, unless Chavez were to bar politically all Venezuelans that have turned 18 since his election, there can be no justification from taking away that right from anyone. The reason he wants this is simple, Chavez’ dwindling popularity is inversely proportional to the age of the voter; barring these segment of the population from voting would take away a big chunk of votes from the opposition.

Chavez also said last night that he would be able to run if a recall referendum against him were to be successful. I have argued before why this may not happen but would like to discuss it and reference it again. Article 233 of the Constitution says:

“These will be absolute absence of the President:……the popular removal of his mandate….When an absolute absence of the elected President occurs during the first four years of the constitutional period there will be an election within the thirty days following the event…In those cases, the new President will complete the corresponding constitutional period”

To me the above paragraph is quite clear, it talks about “absolute absence” and the “new President” will complete the period. To me the use of the words absolute absence and new clearly indicate that Chavez simply can’t run.

As if this were not sufficient, today the pro-Chavez forces in the National Assembly proposed a Constitutional Amendment so that both the members of the Supreme Court and the National Election Commission can be elected and removed by a simple majority of the Deputies of the Assembly and not by the current two-thirds. This is clearly another travesty of the Chavistas whereby they want to legislate to accommodate their purposes. . The problem with this proposal is that the Constitution requires that any amendment be approved by 50% of the voters; however, the Chavistas seem to have forgotten that there can no be elections in Venezuela until a new Electoral Board is elected.  Even if it were possible, there are only twenty days left for the opposition to turn in the petition for the recall referendum, but there is not enough time for the Assembly to approve an amendment, thus the recall would take precedence. The move simply indicates the type of undemocratic tricks Chavez and his Government are willing to use in order to bar any vote on Chavez and his mandate.  We know about this in Venezuela, but the world still believes that Chavez is operating under legality. The next few months will demonstrate the outlaw nature of Chavez and his cronies use all of the dirty tricks possible to subvert democracy in Venezuela. Just wait and see….

That Chavez and his cohorts will try to use any dirty trick, tackle and twist to avoid a recall referendum has been known for quite a while. The appearance of legality began being used against democracy in Venezuela in January 23d. when the Venezuelan Supreme Court barred a consultative referendum from taking place by ruling not on the merits of the referendum itself but on the Electoral Board (CNE) that would organize it. The political nature of that decision was demonstrated by the fact that the Vice-President announced it even before the Court itself had held the audience with its decision. That remarkable decision told the Electoral Board that it could not hold any election until a new Board was elected by the National Assembly. With it, the Highest Court in Venezuela suspended our right to vote until the Chavez controlled Assembly names a new Board. Five months have passed and Venezuela has only been a democracy in name as the right of Venezuelans to hold elections simply does not exist.

It is interesting that it was Chavez himself who last year, when the opposition was promoting the consultative referendum, would say that the opposition should wait until Aug. 19^th 2003 when it could have a recall referendum on his mandate. Many abroad did not understand why the opposition wanted to hold a consultative referendum, the reason was simple, Chavez claimed to have a mandate for his “revolution” from the people, however, the people did not vote for what he interpreted to be his mandate but for an end to corruption, crime and better Government, none of which he has delivered. Thus, the opposition reasoned, were Chavez to lose the consultative referendum he could no longer claim to have a mandate from the people. But we were never able to vote on it.

And if Chavez has his way, we will never be able to vote on the recall referendum either. As the fateful date of Aug. 19 th.  is getting closer the Chavez Government has been speaking and acting as if the recall referendum was an invention of the opposition with no foundation, despite the fact that it was Chavez himself who introduced the concept in the Venezuelan Constitution. Of course, he never believed when his popularity was at its peak that the conditions for a recall referendum against him would ever be fulfilled.  But they are, pushing Chavez and major figures of his Government into saying the referendum will not take place, should not take place and will not take place. This includes the highest ranking members of the Venezuelan military who should not even speak about such matters. But such is the state of this pseudo-democracy under the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.

Last night, Chavez was at it again when he once again forgot about the principle of separation of power issuing legal opinions that are simply meant to intimidate and confuse the population. Chavez said that only those that voted or had the right to vote in the 2000 Presidential election could vote in a recall referendum. Why does Chavez say this? He is trying to stretch Article 72 of the Venezuelan Constitution that says that all electoral mandates are recallable after the mid-point of the term for which a person was elected. The article also says “When a number of voters equal or larger that elected the official were to vote in favor of revoking, as long as the number of voters taking part in the referendum is equal to or larger to 25% of the registered voters….”  Note that the article talks about a number of voters, it does not specify that they had to vote in the election which gave the official the mandate in the same manner in which the second part of the article talks about registered voters. In any case, Articles 62 through 64 of the Constitution would bar any alternate interpretation when they say:

Article 62: All citizens have the right to participate in public matters…

Article 63: Voting is a right…

Article 64: All Venezuelans that are 18 years of age or older who are not barred politically or incarcerated have the right to vote…

Thus, unless Chavez were to bar politically all Venezuelans that have turned 18 since his election, there can be no justification from taking away that right from anyone. The reason he wants this is simple, Chavez’ dwindling popularity is inversely proportional to the age of the voter; barring these segment of the population from voting would take away a big chunk of votes from the opposition.

Chavez also said last night that he would be able to run if a recall referendum against him were to be successful. I have argued before why this may not happen but would like to discuss it and reference it again. Article 233 of the Constitution says:

“These will be absolute absence of the President:……the popular removal of his mandate….When an absolute absence of the elected President occurs during the first four years of the constitutional period there will be an election within the thirty days following the event…In those cases, the new President will complete the corresponding constitutional period”

To me the above paragraph is quite clear, it talks about “absolute absence” and the “new President” will complete the period. To me the use of the words absolute absence and new clearly indicate that Chavez simply can’t run.

As if this were not sufficient, today the pro-Chavez forces in the National Assembly proposed a Constitutional Amendment so that both the members of the Supreme Court and the National Election Commission can be elected and removed by a simple majority of the Deputies of the Assembly and not by the current two-thirds. This is clearly another travesty of the Chavistas whereby they want to legislate to accommodate their purposes. . The problem with this proposal is that the Constitution requires that any amendment be approved by 50% of the voters; however, the Chavistas seem to have forgotten that there can no be elections in Venezuela until a new Electoral Board is elected.  Even if it were possible, there are only twenty days left for the opposition to turn in the petition for the recall referendum, but there is not enough time for the Assembly to approve an amendment, thus the recall would take precedence. The move simply indicates the type of undemocratic tricks Chavez and his Government are willing to use in order to bar any vote on Chavez and his mandate.  We know about this in Venezuela, but the world still believes that Chavez is operating under legality. The next few months will demonstrate the outlaw nature of Chavez and his cronies use all of the dirty tricks possible to subvert democracy in Venezuela. Just wait and see….

Just a few days away and the level of tension seems to have jumped up significantly:

-A leader of the opposition and former Governor of Tachira State gets kidnapped. The Government ignores the fact, while the pro-Chavez Governor of that State claims it is a publicity stunt.

-Chavez appears to be in campaign, the question is for what. He can’t win a recall referendum and can’t run if he resigns, so what’s up?. This week he reiterated there would be no referendum, opened a University that has no Professors at a time that there are no classes anywhere, announced it would pay pensioners the money owed them, said he would close any media outlet he felt like without it being a threat to democracy and said 200 to 300 opposition figures should be in jail for the events of April 2003. (He made no mention of whether anyone in HIS Government should be in jail for the massacre on April 11th.). He explicitly mentioned the names of the two most visble opposition leaders as people that should be in jail, even if their roles on that fateful date were minor.

-The National Assembly is once again a mess, with the agreement between the two sides violated by Chavez’ Deputies in order to introduce the Supreme Court bill and the Content bill.

-Another General, this time the Commander of the National Guard said that there should be no recall referendum. General Gutierrez is remembered as the man that repressed oil workers and his own former mates of the National Guard last December, using tear gas and excessive force. We will never forget his face and his acts.

-The Supreme Court will likely rule that it will give the Asembly ten days to name an Electoral Board or it will do it on its own. Of course, Chavez has said he no longer recognizes what he called two years ago :” The best Supreme Court in the world”.

I get the feeling things will heat up in the next month….

In a story we have heard before, the Head of the investigative police said today that they are very close to finding out who is responsible for the recent bombs in various parts of Caracas. We heard that in Decemebr when Joao de Goveia was captured after the shootings in Altamira square, two types of bullets were found, up to today nothing else has been heard about who else was responsible for that assasination. In February the Colombian and Spanish Embassies were bombed and both this branch of the police, Chavez, the Vice-President and MVR party members said they knew who had done it. Then came the bombings of Enrique Mendoza, the attempt on Marta Colomina, the sound device at Union Radio, the bomb at PDVSA and somehow we are still waiting for a single suspect to be arrested, or some evidence and more than just the usual, bla…bla..bla…

Note: Thursday is a holiday here, I will take advantage of it and go away…the Devil will rest…..

Extremely interesting article in today’s Tal Cual newspaper (by subscription only) in which PDVSA’s former economist Ramon Espinasa gives his views on the future of the Venezuelan oil industry. Espinasa is a highly regarded Economist who understands PDVSA from an economic and technical point of view better than anybody I know. He is the type of solid technical person Chavez hates because he can not refute their points of views with his gut feeling because they deal with realities and numbers. Among the highlights:

–Venezuela’s oil production will begin falling in the next eighteen months. The reason is very simple, in order to maintain the country’s oil production we need to have between 80-100 active drills, thee are currently only 25 working.

-Production is being maintained by intensive exploitation, particularly at the El Furial oil field with a risk of damaging it.

-As production falls there will be more pressure on PDVSA, fewer resources, less investment which takes you back to the starting point.

-With the current formula of more funds from PDVSA (short term fiscal resources), smaller operational costs and less investment “we are no longer feeding the hen with the golden eggs”

-Operational costs at PDVSA, which includes the costs of producing, transport, refining, distribution in the internal market and export are about $7 per barrel. Of that $7, $4 corresponds to production, $2 to refining and $1 to internal market. These costs have gone up in nominal terms by 150% since 1990, while in real terms they have gone up by 75%……in the cost structure 20% is salaries and 80% is machinery and equipment.

Not a pretty picture, the question is what will happen when PDVSA’s fiscal contribution drops sharply. Will the country be forced to sell pats of PDVSA in order to survive? Will anyone remember who destroyed the industry?