The Devil's Excrement

Economist Gustavo Garcia said a few interesting things in the interview today in page 1-17 of El Universal. I thought I would highlight a few of them:

-“Internal revenues has declined and oil revenue is falling, because PDVSA is not collecting what it says it is selling , nor it produces what it announces and the level of exports does not correspond with what they argue they are selling, because in that case international reserves should be increasing more”

-“This year the Government will pay 4  trillion Bs. in interest and internal debt will increase in the same proportion”

-“The increase in international reserves of US 3.5 billion is exactly the same amount that the Central Bank has had to absorb in its operation to reduce liquidity”

Economist Gustavo Garcia said a few interesting things in the interview today in page 1-17 of El Universal. I thought I would highlight a few of them:

-“Internal revenues has declined and oil revenue is falling, because PDVSA is not collecting what it says it is selling , nor it produces what it announces and the level of exports does not correspond with what they argue they are selling, because in that case international reserves should be increasing more”

-“This year the Government will pay 4  trillion Bs. in interest and internal debt will increase in the same proportion”

-“The increase in international reserves of US 3.5 billion is exactly the same amount that the Central Bank has had to absorb in its operation to reduce liquidity”

Interesting interview in today’s El Nacional (page A-6)  with the Head of the Supreme Court. In it, Justice Ivan Rincon says the Court will not allow the boycott of the referendum. He says: ” We are obligated to guarantee it”…” It is a constitutional right that all citizens have to ask for the recall of any elected public official”..”If the electoral way out is backed, we have to defend it, we have to provide it with custody”…”The right is born on August 19th. and once the signatures are handed in, the electoral commission has to hold the referendum within the next three months. The extension of the periods conspires against the commission itself, in such a way that it would lose credibility”. Very encouraging, particularly saying that the ninety day period has to be obeyed. It ahs always been my fear that there will be delays through legal maneuvering of the date on which the referendum would be held.

It makes you wonder when a country has more than 20% unemployment officially (more in reality), when professionals, including teachers and medical doctors are unemployed, why Hugo Chavez brings Cuban teachers to alphabetize Venezuelans and Cuban medical doctors to provide medical care in the barrios. Meanwhile, last year’s alphabetization plan organized by the government did very little and local hospitals have no supplies and doctors don’t even get paid. Moreover, it has been demonstrated over and over that Venezuelan medical doctors have much better training than Cuban ones. Of course, we also sell 2% of the country’s oil production to Cuba with long term financing in US dollars much below what Venezuela can get in international marekts or what Central American and Caribbean countries get under the Pacto de San Jose. What’s next, Cuban prostitutes?

You can see the latest polls from Consultores 21 here. Among the most interesting results:

-75% of the popualtion think things are bad in Venezuela

-67% think the Chavez Government is a bad one.

-61% plan to vote in the referendum, with 65% voting Yes on the question should Chavez be recalled.

-75% think the opposition should have a single candidate.

Other interesting results are the profile of the typical Chavista supporters and anatagonists.

The poll is fairly consistent with others I have seen as well as those from my favorite pollster.

Pro-Government and opposition Deputies have agreed on three possible candidates to be the “fifth” and deciding member in the Electoral Commission (CNE). The three are:

Eliazar Diaz Rangel: Editor of daily Ultimas Noticias, Professos of Journalism Universidad Central de Venezuela.

Teodoro Petkoff: Founder of Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), Presidential candidate in the 80’s for MAS, Minister of Planning during the Caldera administration 95-98, Editor of Caracas’ afternoon newspaper Tal Cual

Carlos Delgado Chapellin: Head of the electoral Commission for almost two decades. Minister of Foreign Relations during the brief transition Government after Carlos Andres Perez was impeached in 1994.

Apparently these are the candidates both sides agree to in that particular order, the question is now whether any of the three are interested. I understand Petkoff said no a couple of weeks ago, I think he would be the best of three because he has political weight, is a good negotiator and is the best known of the three to the general public, giving importance to the decision of that body.

Opposition and pro-Government Deputies held intense discussions today to try to select the fifth member of the Electoral Board and avoid forcing the Supreme Court to choose the whole Board. Another positive development in this blissful legislative week.Each side will pick two of the five members and they will agree on the fifth person by consensus.

Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel loves to say that there has never been “so much” freedom in Venezuela as there is now. Well, I don’t recall a case of censorship like that applied to artist Pedro Morales for being “disrespectful” in his art for the Venezuelan representation at the Venice Biennale. Morales was selected by a jury to present his art at the country’s pavillion at the Biennale. (Well, I think you have to go back to Caldera banning “Last Tango in Paris” in the early 70’s). Morales’ work entitled “City Rooms” contains videos that Government officials found disrespectful and Venezuela’s Pavillion simply never opened. (The funding was private, but it was an official presentation). You can see the artist’s version of events in his website where you can see the “offensive videos”. I imagine the one called NoTolerance,  is the offensive one. (There is a puppet imitating Chavez on his Sunday program, but perhaps it is simply the fact that it starts with the word referendum). Of course, Rangel, if asked, would say this is not censorhip but removal of offensive material or some euphemism like that.

The Venezuelan National Assembly has become almost civilized in the way it is working now, with a discussion on the regulations for debate and rules of order proceeding with total peace and civility this week. This implies that the El Calvario sessions have indeed been set aside and both sides are looking for a compromise. There are even rumors that the MVR Deputies and the opposition will try to reach an agreement on the composition of the electoral commission (CNE) so as to avoid the Supreme Court from doing it. What a transformation!

While Vice-President Rangel and his son, the Mayor of Petare, went together with the Minister of Justice to the Attorney General’s office to denounce the aggression of the Metropolitan Police against the Chavista protesters, Globovision showed a video, in which one can clearly see that the first tear gas was thrown by the protesters and not by the police. This is actually followed by Rangel’s son giving a speech from an armored National Guard vehicle. The speech certainly was not one in which he was trying to calm down the protesters. On the contrary, he was telling the already violent protesters that “Nobody is going to conquer Petare”. Globovision also played a tape with someone saying the shooting will not stop until the police leaves. Unbelievable!