The Devil's Excrement

Rep. Henry Hyde sent the following letter to Georgr Bush, asking the President of the US to support to the democratic opposition

The Honorable George W. Bush

President of the United  States

The White House

1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

Washington, D.C.  20500

Dear President Bush:

            At the present time in Venezuela the leadership of all the pro-democracy elements of the society including the genuinely democratic political parties, the labor unions, business associations, and religious institutions have been gathered for two days in coalition with a group of active duty military officers of flag rank demanding that President Hugo Chavez resign and that new, free and open elections be held.  Most of the Venezuelan media is overwhelmingly supportive of this endeavor, even though it has received little attention here. 

            This broad prodemocratic coalition seeks to rescue Venezuela from the grip of a president who, though democratically elected in December 1998, has since his inauguration done three things that have gravely harmed Venezuelan political democracy and which have threatened the well-being and security of people in neighboring democratic countries as well as to the United States.

            The public record is clear that President Chavez has done the following:

1.      Violated the constitution of Venezuela in force 1999, his first year in office, in two fundamental ways: by having the Constituent Assembly, which had the sole legal function of writing a new constitution, usurp the powers of both the elected National Congress and the existing Supreme Court; further Chavez packed the Constituent Assembly with his supporters who, though winning only 42% of the votes, were mysteriously allocated 93% of the seats.  The Clinton Administration remained silent about this. 

2.      Forged public alliances with state sponsors of terrorism including Cuba, Iraq, and Iran, and provided since October 2000 subsidized oil to Cuba, enabling the Castro regime to obtain more than US $2 billion which it could use to support terrorism. 

3.      Supported terrorist organizations attacking nearby fragile democracies including the FARC in Colombia and radical anti-democratic groups seeking to destabilize Bolivia and Ecuador.  This included clandestine support for Colonel Gutierrez and pro-Castro radicals who briefly overthrew the democratic government of Ecuador in January 2000.   Colonel Gutierrez is now a leading candidate for the presidency in Ecuador and would likely follow in the pro-Castro path of Chavez. 

The Clinton Administration remained unconscionably silent about the antidemocratic actions of President Chavez.  This is the time for the Bush administration to set the factual and historical record straight: the current regime of President Chavez is illegitimate because it is based upon the systematic violation of the Venezuelan constitution in force in 1999.  The Bush administration should also declare itself in sympathy with the pro-democratic civil-military coalition in Venezuela which seeks to restore democracy and should do so at once. 

It is noteworthy that the prodemocratic civil-military coalition in Venezuela has made the case that under Article 305 of the current Chavez constitution, the military actions of “legitimate disobedience” and the political association and assembly of parties, labor unions, business associations and other groups of Venezuelan civil society calling for the immediate resignation of Chavez is totally constitutional and proper. 

In neighboring Brazil, there is a presidential runoff election that will be held on Sunday, October 27, 2002.  At present, the leading candidate is Mr. Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, who is a pro-Castro radical who for electoral purposes has posed as a moderate.  Recently, many of my colleagues in the Congress wrote you a letter in which they expressed their concerns about the ten-year long association of Mr. Lula da Silva with Latin American, European, and Middle Eastern terrorist organizations in a forum which he convened and organized in silent partnership with Castro.  They also expressed their concern about Mr. Lula da Silva’s recent statements indicating an interest in reviving Brazil’s nuclear weapons program which from 1965-1994 not only wasted enormous resources that could have helped the poor, but also succeeded in designing a 30 kiloton nuclear bomb which could be quickly tested if the program were revived.

There is a real prospect that Castro, Chavez, and Lula da Siva could constitute an axis of evil in the Americas which might soon have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles (which Brazil had developed ended in 1990).  This is the time to support the prodemocratic coalition in Venezuela and to help the people of Brazil understand the truth about Chavez so that they do not make a similar mistake and elect another pro-Castro radical who will neither help the poor, nor help their economy, nor live at peace with democratic neighbors. 

 Very truly yours

 Henry J. Hyde

An article in the Miami Herald describes well what has happened to the Government’s intelligence police under Chavez. While it may seem funny at first glance, it becomes tragic when one realizes that this is just one example of what Chavez has done to the Government structure in Venezuela.

Up to now, the Chavez Government has been careful in controlling violent outbursts while OAS Secretary General and mediator Cesar Gaviria has been here. This has been part of the two-faced strategy of promoting the Chavez administration as a good citizen of the international community. Well, the strategy lasted until today when very violent demonstrations took place in downtown Caracas which resulted in one person dead and ten injured. This is an indication of the deterioration of general conditions as well as the apparent loss of control by the Government over the Bolivarian circles.

It all began in the morning, when cops from the metropolitan police who are striking blocked the main access to the city council building. A group of 25 people took over the building where the Mayor of the Metropolitan area, the Governor of Miranda state Enrique Mendoza and other members of the democratic coordinating committee were meeting. According to former Governor of Merida state William Davila, all was well while tear gas was being used but suddenly shots were fired from outside the building forcing the police and the National Guard to act. Demonstrators moved their protest to other areas of Caracas where violence continued until sunset. The Government was quick to blame the Mayor of the Metropolitan area in another attempt to blame violence on the opposition, but it was clear that shots were fired by the violent demonstrators and not the police or the National Guard. The Mayor said that when he went to the local hospital where many of the injured were taken, he was almost lynched by a crowd led by opposition deputy Iris Varela. As usual the Government said it would investigate fully the violent acts of today.

Gaviria was forceful today in condemning the violence while being diplomatic about it. Said Gaviria: “a certain level of impunity is being planted in Venezuela with respect to some violent events and a custom that such events sometimes are never clarified”. Clearly, he was putting the Government on the spot. The Government accused the opposition of playing a double game while appearing to be doing the same when it wrote a letter to the UN General Secretary criticing the opposition. Such a strategy takes away from the dialogue being promoted in Caracas by Gaviria and may represent a strategy of eventually disqualifying Gavirai as a mediator if talks fail or if Gaviria begins criticizing the Government’s negotiating position.

Meanwhile the negotiations seemed to be stalled somewhat today as the Government continued to make accusations against the opposition while the opposition mantains its stance that the only negotiations are about the elections as the Nov. 4th. request for a referendum is a process based on the Constitution and can not be stopped. Apparently the Government has even questioned the Declaration of Principles signed by Vice-President Rangel in October which set the stage for the negotiations.

I received today a link to this web site “La corrupcion en tiempos de Chavez” (Corruption in Chavez’ time) which contains a very complete and well documented set of most of the accusations of corruption against Chavez’ Government. The site is written by Agustin Beroes who used to write for El Nacional and wrote a book about the exchange control office Recadi, one of the biggest corruption cases in the history of Venezuela. The site contains a lot of information and apperas to be very complete and the compilation alone is fantastic. Anybody who ever believed in Chavez’ revolution can only be convinced that it is a “robolucion” (robo means steal in Spanish). It is sufficient to say that nobody has been jailed on corruption charges during the Chavez administration and that many of the principals in these stories still occupy important positions in the Chavez administration.

While it is difficult to reach conclusions based on a few conversations and observations after being back for a full day, here are my most relevant first impressions:

• While I was gone for only a week, there seems to be a clear change in atmosphere. The Government appears to be more incoherent than ever., having suffered a considearble loss of face after last Monday’s march. Clearly there is a considerable amount of bickering within the Government as to how to proceed from here.
  
• Monday Nov. 4th. did not become another April11th. for a number of reasons. First of all, people were better prepared, as demonstrated by the fact that the AP reporter hGovernment continued to attempt to show that it was a good citizen of the world. This time, it was hard to fool everyone all the time. Finally, the fact that some of the leadership of Chavez’ MVR tried to stop the violent attempt to block the march, limited the violence to the group already there since the morning and the presence of teh police and National Guard definitely helped. 
  
• That Venezuela is clearly headed for an election is clear now. The opposition now has the upperhand after handing in the 2 million plus signatures last week (even if only 1,5 million are validated). Reprtedly Chavez may call for a general election, which would imply he does not want to particvipate in any procvess which he may lose. (If he called for elections, he could not run), while Vice-President Rangel denies this, the strategy is to try to field a candidate less identified with MVR (El Universal suggests today it may be Claudio Fermin).
  
• The opposition seems to be focusing its strategy on the referendum leaving details aside such as who the Government’s representatives are and whether Chavez formally named them or not.
  
• To complicate matter further Chavez vetoed the electoral bill which was approved with the votes of only his MVR majority in the National Assembly. This has not set well with some of his supporters who see it for what it is: another maneuver to delay the possibility of an election.
  
• PDVSA may now be back into the picture as there were protests there today and some are scheduled for tomorrow. The issue was an MVR event held in PDVSA over the weekend which went against company policy of not involving the corporation with politics. To make matters even worse, the President of PDVSA reacted badly initially when he was welcomed by pot-bangers, he later apologized but a protest against him will take place tomorrow.  
  
• The protest in Altamira continues, diminished, but very much alive. This is in itself a problem for the Government as everyday there are events that take place there that are widely covered by the media, contributing to wearing down the Government.

Thus, a lot has happened, time is compressing fast. Chavez appears to be running out of options, but somehow, he still holds on……

Hugo Chavez created the so-called Bolivarian circles two years ago, claiming they would be civil organizations that would do social and community work. With time, the opposition has accused these Bolivarian circles as being paramilitary groups who would be used to violently defend the Chavez presidency if necessary. In the past, they have taken over the surroundings of the presidential palace, Puente el Llaguno (a bridge in downtown Caracas from which the shots that killed most of the people that died on April 11th. were fired) and attempted to take over a university. Bolivarian circles have also attacked a number of opposition politicians and have rioted, for example, when the Supreme Court made its decison on the Generals that refused to obey orders on April 11th. Despite this, Chavez and his collaborators defend them as peaceful organizations.

That these circles are low life’s was demonstrated tonight. Mohamed Merhi, the father one a high school student shot to death on April 11th. declared himslef in hunger strike two days ago in front of the Supreme Court. His protest was over the fact that it is the Court that has to investigate the charges of Crimes agaisnt humanity agaisntt President Chavez for the deaths on Aoril 11th. However, the  Court has delayed the case and the Attorney General has made many manuevers that have delayed the case, so no investigation has been made.

Mr. Merhi, a small framed quiet guy, has been staying for two days in front of the Supreme Court with freinds and sympathizers of his cause. Well, today the Bolivarian Circles arrived in front of the court. They began by insulting Mr. Merhi, but the situation turned violent and the National Guard had to use tear gas to disperse the crowd Mr. Merhi tried to seek refuge in the Supreme Court building but the National Guard did not allow him to do it. As he was rejected, he was gassed and injured by stones thrown by the despicable members of the bolivarian circles, there have been shots fired but no injuries from handguns. At this time the police have surrounded the building and Mr. Merhi says he will not be intimidated by the circles and his hunger strike will continue.

What the Bolivarian Circles have done tonight is a despicable and cowardly act that shows what low lifes they are. Tomorrow that other low life called Hugo Chavez and his Vice President will appear on TV condenming the attack, but they are the fathers of this monster called the Bolivarian Circles. The international press or human rights organizations will say little about this hedious act. To me Mr. Merhi is the embodiment of the tragedy of this country and the hypocrisy of the Chavez Government.

When things like this happen, I want someone to come up to me and justify that Chavez should stay because he was democratically elected. As I always say: So was Hitler!

(In another despicable subject, the second in command of the office of the People’s Defender, who defends only the Government, criticized Mr. Merhi for pressuring the Supreme Court. There are no words to qualify this statement)

I will be going away for ten days. While I can keep posting while I am gone, it certainly is not the same to talk about what is happening from afar. I will only post if something which appears truly important happens.

The number of people in Plaza Altamira decreased significantly in the last two days. On Monday, there will be the march to hand in the signatures for the referendum. Thus, next week should be quite interesting. Chavez does appear to be willing to negotiate, buit this is not thefirst time this has happened so it might be meaningless. A reputable poll came out yesterday saying that in the question proposed for the refrendum 73% of the people would vote against the President and only 17% for him. Doesn’t sound good for him.

A new attempt on the president life foiled!.

This is an exclusive picture of the counter revolutionaries that were planning to send a couple of balloons to the presidential palace. Clearly the intention was to kill the president by scaring him. After all, balloon in spanish is also the word for bomb…

[Tyromaniac]

Venezuelan intelligence, security and millitary agencies foiled the third attempt on the President’s life in two weeks on Thursday. According to a report on the Tyromaniac, agents from DIM, DISIP, DUMB and DUMBER, foiled the attempt when they apprehended the three mercenaries shown in the picture above. Note the dangerous weapons, while they may seem like balloons, in Spanish these devices are called “bombas” which speaks for itself. These mercenaries are clearly of foreign origin, note that the paper bags over their faces are Colombian made, the sweater is from GAP and note how the colors of the Venezuelan flag are inverted, a mistake a Venezuelan would never make. Note also the chinese characters on the boxes on the right. Unfortunately, the mercenaries escaped as the pictures were being taken by intelligence agents, as they clinged to the balloons and just floated away over the mountains that surround Caracas.

The Secretary Genral of the OAS left Venezuela leaving behind a Mexican standoff between teh Government and the opposition. He will be back on Monday when he will mediate in talks between the two sides. Gaviria said before leaving that the two sides are not that far apart as they both agree a referendum is the solution and they just differ about when it will take place. Thus, it is likely he will concentrate on this point next week.Given that he arrives on the same day that the opposition will present the required signatures for a consulting referendum to take place, it will be interesting to hear what arguments are used.

Meanwhile the protest continued in Plaza Altamira, while Hugo Chavez held nationwide televised speech calling for a deepening of his revolution. Chavez sprinkled his speech generously with the words “coupster” and “facists” referring to his opponents and denied that his Government was powerless like the opposition says.

Thus, the two sides appear far appart and during the weekend they will each try to make it look like they have strong support. Given the festive atmosphere in Plaza Altamira, the country is likely to take a break from strong confrontation until Monday, but in Venezuela, you just never know what new surprise may just be around the corner…. 

It is important to understand what may or not happen for a consultative referendum to take place and what are the pitfalls on the way to a possible referendum.

As described in an earlier post the new Venezuelan Constitution, approved and promoted by Chavez,  in Article 71 says that “matters of special national transcendence may subject to a consultative referendum by the initiative of the President in a Cabinet meeting, by the agreement of the National Assembly by the vote of a majority of its members, or at the request of 10%of the voters registered in the civil and electoral registry”

Thus, between now and Monday, either the President or the National Assembly could attempt to jump ahead of the opposition by proposing a consultative referendum with a softer question than that being proposed by the opposition which essentially asks whether people think Chavez should resign or not. Usually, the National Assembly requires two discussions to approve a law, but here the Constitution only talks about an “agreement” by a simple majority. Thus, it could be done at a time. It appears unlikely at this time that the Government will attempt to do something like that, because it would go against their public argument that such a referendum is unconstitutional.

The opposition has plans to submit the signatures on Monday Nov. 4^th to the National Electoral Council. The council has already said that it is technically feasible to hold such a referendum within 45 days. According to Venezuelan procedural law, the Council has thirty days to either approve or reject the referendum. It can either reject it because insufficient and valid signatures are presented or because the matter may not be considered transcendental or may be incompatible with the Constitution. The opposition claims to have already a number larger than the 1.2 million required and hopes to submit 2 million signatures previously verified by them. The Government is arguing the latter as Article 72 says that all publicly elected positions may be revoked by referendum after half of the period for which the person has been elected has gone by. Thus, they argue, you would be violating Article 72 by approving such a referendum. The opposition says that this would not be a revoking referendum as it would be non-binding. Obviously were Chavez to lose by a large margin he would become essentially a lame duck and be forced to resign even if the result is non-binding.

The most likely strategy by the Government after Monday is to submit a request for an injunction in front of the Constitutional Hall of the Venezuelan Supreme Court. The Hall can approve such an injunction and the full Court would have to consider such a decision. There would be two basic problems with this Constitutional interpretation. First of all, the Court has already backed two consultative referenda, one of which was held even before the new Constitution had been approved. At that time, the Highest Court argued that a referendum to call for a Constituent Assembly could be held because sovereignty resided on the people, even if the Constitution did not say it explicitly. Well, the new Constitution says that explicitly in Article 5 when it says “Sovereignty resides intransferably on the people who will exercise it directly in the ways contemplated in this Constitution and in the Law…..”.

In any case, it may just be that for the Court this question may become more of a political than a legal question, since it is clear that the country has come to a practical standstill due to the current political crisis.

If the Chavez administration won on the issue of the constitutionality of the referendum, the opposition’s only electoral option would be to wait until half the term of President Chavez has gone by to hold a revoking referendum. For that, the Constitution contemplates obtaining the signatures of 25% of registered voters (some 3 million signatures which sounds feasible). However, for the referendum to be approved, the number of voters approving the referendum has to be equal or larger than the number that voted for the person according to Article 72 of the Constitution. This might not be as difficult as abstention was high (only 56.7% of the population voted) with Chavez receiving 3.75 million votes or 56.93% of the vote. However, abstention will be the critical factor. In fact, were Chavez to discourage his supporters from voting might be sufficient to have the referendum go in his favor. There can only be one revocatory referendum for an office holder. The Constitution in Article 233 says that if the President is replaced within the first four years of his term, he would be replaced by the Vice-President and election would have to be held within thirty days. In Venezuela the Vice-President is appointed by the President, so he could essentially handpick who will oversee the thirty day transition as he could appoint anybody up to the last minute of his Presidency.